New 4-tier system for England

[Richard Scott]

Hopefully all of England gets put into lockdown(and I mean a proper lockdown like March) by Boxing day although it really should be with immediate effect regardless of Xmas, cases are out of control, signs the North West is starting to rise again and I do feel other parts could easily start to rise again. The numbers usually peak on a Wednesday/Thursday so we could hit over 40,000 cases by then.

High chance the death rate will start to rise also given the lag effect. Horrible situation and I'm having my doubts about how well this vaccine will be rolled out so I can't see things getting back to normal by Easter either.

Thanks for that, some of us will go completely mad in that time but you'll be fine as only thing that matters is the virus.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Hopefully all of England gets put into lockdown(and I mean a proper lockdown like March) by Boxing day although it really should be with immediate effect regardless of Xmas, cases are out of control, signs the North West is starting to rise again and I do feel other parts could easily start to rise again. The numbers usually peak on a Wednesday/Thursday so we could hit over 40,000 cases by then.

High chance the death rate will start to rise also given the lag effect. Horrible situation and I'm having my doubts about how well this vaccine will be rolled out so I can't see things getting back to normal by Easter either.

And a Merry Christmas to you too.

Are rates really out of control?

The potential of 4,000 deaths per day by winter was used to justify an immediate lockdown in November. Winter started yesterday. It is stated that none of the Tiers or Lockdown measures had much impact on the numbers, so where are the deaths, where are the 100% full Intensive Care beds, and other beds made as makeshift IC beds, and the Nightingales being opened up and staffed by the Army Medical Corps and St Johns etc.

 

[MP33]

Thinking about Tier 5, there was a cartoon in Punch when Edward Heath's government had an economic policy with stage 1, 2 and upwards. There were two men in a camp behind a barbed wire fence and one is saying to the other I dread to think what stage 6 is going to be like.

 

[trainophile]

Interesting thread on Twitter where several people are reporting that they know of people who have died of various things, cancers etc., yet the death certificates say Covid. Something really doesn't add up.

 

[Class 33]

Tried to switch off from Coronavirus this evening. But just seen the breaking news on the Express website that Boris is to impose more areas moving into Tier 4 on Boxing Day!

Boris to force harsh lockdown rules on MORE areas from Boxing Day

BORIS JOHNSON is poised to move more areas across England into Tier 4 from Boxing Day, in a bid to stop the spread of the new mutant strain of coronavirus.

www.express.co.uk

Snippet of article....

Tier 4 warning: Boris to force harsh lockdown rules on MORE areas of UK from Boxing Day​

BORIS JOHNSON is poised to move more areas across England into Tier 4 from Boxing Day, in a bid to stop the spread of the new mutant strain of coronavirus.​

Boris Johnson held a meeting with ministers and leading medics tonight after the new strain of COVID-19 was detected in parts of the South West, Midlands and the North. The group discussed moving other areas into the new Tier 4. The Prime Minister is due to announce the new clampdown as soon as tomorrow, with the measures due to take effect immediately after Christmas.

A "Gold Command" meeting of public health chiefs and ministers met on Tuesday evening to sign off expanding the hardest lockdown measures beyond London and the South East, according to The Sun.

Health sources said last night it would not affect all of England "but there are many areas that need tougher measures and are seeing dramatic cases numbers".

On Tuesday the Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallence warned: “I think it’s likely that measures will need to be increased in some places, in due course, not reduced.”

It has also emerged that the new strain has already spread to 57 areas in the UK.

Jesus christ. Am mightily sick and tired of this.

 

[Envy123]

I wonder if the rest of Cambridgeshire would follow Peterborough in Tier 4?

 

[DustyBin]

So what you are actually hoping for is lives and livelihoods to be completely decimated. Many were lucky to make it out of the first two lockdowns, a third will finish them off. It's beyond belief to me how anyone can hope for this to happen.

Thanks for that, some of us will go completely mad in that time but you'll be fine as only thing that matters is the virus.

And a Merry Christmas to you too.

Are rates really out of control?

The potential of 4,000 deaths per day by winter was used to justify an immediate lockdown in November. Winter started yesterday. It is stated that none of the Tiers or Lockdown measures had much impact on the numbers, so where are the deaths, where are the 100% full Intensive Care beds, and other beds made as makeshift IC beds, and the Nightingales being opened up and staffed by the Army Medical Corps and St Johns etc.

Don’t feed the troll! Seriously though, I appreciate this site for the sensible grown up debates we have, don’t let this guy spoil it.

Tried to switch off from Coronavirus this evening. But just seen the breaking news on the Express website that Boris is to impose more areas moving into Tier 4 on Boxing Day!

Boris to force harsh lockdown rules on MORE areas from Boxing Day

BORIS JOHNSON is poised to move more areas across England into Tier 4 from Boxing Day, in a bid to stop the spread of the new mutant strain of coronavirus.

www.express.co.uk

Snippet of article....



Jesus christ. Am mightily sick and tired of this.

It is coming, as per my previous post I was told an announcement would be made on the 27th or 28th. If it is announced on Boxing Day I’ll be disappointed to have been given the wrong date although it doesn’t really matter in the end....

Hang in there, don’t let the situation grind you down.

 

[DB]

A lovely idea, but almost certain not to happen, at least the everyone comes out in tier 2 bit. Back in march we saw that it took 2 weeks from the imposition of the lockdown for cases to plateau, let alone decrease.

It's very questionable to assume thst correlation = causation then though, as it was precisely the time of year when respiratory infections woukd have been expected to decline anyway.

 

[Domh245]

Presumably a positive test can determine which version of Covid is present, otherwise how do they know the new variant is becoming so prolific.

In which case we should be told the figures pertaining to each type rather than just a total for the day/area. Otherwise how can we appreciate the severity of the new strain?

A positive PCR test isn't enough to tell which version of Covid is present, that's only determinable through sequencing the swab rather than just looking for the certain 'signatures' that the PCR tests look for. The UK samples about 5.6% (compared to sub 0.1% in many other countries) of all the positive tests, so we can't say that there were x many of this type, and y many of this type etc, only that of the swabs that were sequenced, strain x is becoming more prevalent more quickly etc. Also given the sheer number of variants that exist already, publishing a breakdown like that wouldn't help as you then end up with so many variants being listed that none really stand out in particular. I expect that even if you broke it down into "mutant strain" vs all others you'd be talking about 10% to 90%, which doesn't sound nearly as bad as the government might hope!

edit: found a tweet showing the breakdown of the 'mutant strain' B.1.1.7 in different regions - it is considerably higher than I thought, with it being around 85% of positive cases in Kent, 80% in sussex, and above 60% in each of London, Surrey, and Essex. A response to that tweet also includes a link to a beta sequencing dashboard that has been put together, although I stand by what I said that I'm not sure that it is beneficial to the public for this to become a government published data

Interesting thread on Twitter where several people are reporting that they know of people who have died of various things, cancers etc., yet the death certificates say Covid. Something really doesn't add up.

Covid remains a notifiable disease (I do hope that as numbers of hospitalisations drop and it no longer presents a threat, this can be removed to prevent the media circus from whipping everyone into a frenzy about case numbers again), so if they caught it in hospital for example and died of something unrelated, it would still require Covid to be put on the death certificate even if it wasn't the thing that killed them. That's where a little more digging can come in handy to determine the number of cases where Covid was the underlying cause of death. Around 15% (9133) of all Covid deaths as counted by PHE from death certificates were 'incidental' using the latest numbers with the CEBM method

It's very questionable to assume thst correlation = causation then though, as it was precisely the time of year when respiratory infections woukd have been expected to decline anyway.

True, although given how steeply infections were rising (admittedly not the most reliable indicator given the limited testing but the picture with deaths is similar) and how suddenly they plateaued I don't think seasonal changes can be attributed as a major reason. A contributory one sure, but definitely not enough to ruin the correlation

It's also similar to what we saw with lockdown 2 where the case rolling average plateaued a little after a week from the imposition, and ties in with the anticipated timescales from infection to symptoms to testing

 

[Solent&Wessex]

I note that the reports refer to the "Midlands and The North" needing extra Tier 4 measures as "many areas need tougher measures and are seeing dramatic case numbers".

Not round this part of the North.

West Yorkshire is still falling.

 

[farleigh]

I look forward to watching how quickly the goalposts shift to “it was never about protecting the NHS”.

Fortunately I don’t see this flying, a lot of my friends and colleagues who still broadly support the restrictions only do so because of the risk to the highly vulnerable. It will also become politically acceptable to voice opposition to restrictions without being stigmatised as a granny killer, and I firmly believe a majority of people are not more vocal for that reason alone. Some hefty tax rises ought to help in mobilising that sentiment.

I note that the reports refer to the "Midlands and The North" needing extra Tier 4 measures as "many areas need tougher measures and are seeing dramatic case numbers".

Not round this part of the North.

West Yorkshire is still falling.

Good- us in the South hope you guys don't get the tier 4 treatment.

 

[packermac]

The word “reasonable” does do some pretty heavy lifting.

Reasonableness the legal professions licence to print money, it normally needs a court to rule on it hence a revenue stream.

 

[317666]

I wonder if the rest of Cambridgeshire would follow Peterborough in Tier 4?

Don't give them ideas!!

 

[Chingy]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1341512818718355461?s=20

 

[The Ham]

The idea of a full national lockdown, either officially or by using Tier 4 by stealth, would only really be vaguely necessary if the rapid increases being seen in London and The South East were being replicated across the country.

But they aren't.

Up here in Tier 3 Yorkshire our rates are still falling every day. Even Bradford has astonished me by getting down to 163 per 100,000 - very low by Bradford standards. They haven't been this low since mid September. And it is still dropping.

If there is a real need to protect us all from the mutant variant then bolster Tier 4 in the areas where it may be necessary- i.e. those parts of Essex, Surrey and areas bordering the current Tier 4 areas which are all still in Tier 2 - despite having, in most cases, far higher rates than Tier 3 areas in Yorkshire!

The south was quite happy to lock us Northerners away in Tier 3 (or previous variants thereof) for months on end when we were far higher than the South East, so now it should be the other way round.

Of course that won't happen.

Hancock and co will come up with some bluff about how us having much lower rates we now need to be on our guard as the nasty mutant is amongst us and we are just waiting for the figures to filter through.

Depends on how refined the zoning is, one half of my borough is fairly high the other half is broadly the same as the current Bradford figures, however as it's rural area a family of four getting it makes a big difference to the numbers.

Good- us in the South hope you guys don't get the tier 4 treatment.

Indeed (whilst also hoping that I also don't go into tier 4, from currently tier 2).

 

[Andyh82]

To play devils advocate for a moment

Boris was criticised extensively for allegedly bringing in the first lockdown too late, i.e waiting for cases to rise before locking down

Therefore you could see why they want to pre-empt rising cases this time

I'm always of the opinion if lockdown 1 had been earlier, there may have been less compliance as many might have wondered what it was for, as the cases weren't high enough to justify it

 

[DustyBin]

To play devils advocate for a moment

Boris was criticised extensively for allegedly bringing in the first lockdown too late, i.e waiting for cases to rise before locking down

Therefore you could see why they want to pre-empt rising cases this time

I'm always of the opinion if lockdown 1 had been earlier, there may have been less compliance as many might have wondered what it was for, as the cases weren't high enough to justify it

I think a lot of criticism was (and is) based on the false belief that we could have stopped the virus spreading. In theory of course if you lockdown totally you can, New Zealand have proven that, but you’re then backed into a corner. If we’d locked down early we’d have then had to have kept our borders closed otherwise we’d have ended up exactly where we are now regardless. For a country like the UK this would be even more catastrophic than the measures we’ve taken, so simply wasn’t an option. In my opinion, once the virus is out there, preemptive measures are pointless as all they really do is cause peaks and troughs in the infection rate which eventually ends up where it would have anyway, just slightly further down the line. I agree with your final sentence although again I doubt it would have made a lot of difference in reality; we’d be in the position we’re in regardless.

 

[roversfan2001]

Hopefully all of England gets put into lockdown(and I mean a proper lockdown like March) by Boxing day although it really should be with immediate effect regardless of Xmas, cases are out of control, signs the North West is starting to rise again and I do feel other parts could easily start to rise again. The numbers usually peak on a Wednesday/Thursday so we could hit over 40,000 cases by then.

High chance the death rate will start to rise also given the lag effect. Horrible situation and I'm having my doubts about how well this vaccine will be rolled out so I can't see things getting back to normal by Easter either.

You hope for a third lockdown, potentially until Easter?!

 

[Yew]

I think a lot of criticism was (and is) based on the false belief that we could have stopped the virus spreading. In theory of course if you lockdown totally you can, New Zealand have proven that, but you’re then backed into a corner. If we’d locked down early we’d have then had to have kept our borders closed otherwise we’d have ended up exactly where we are now regardless. For a country like the UK this would be even more catastrophic than the measures we’ve taken, so simply wasn’t an option. In my opinion, once the virus is out there, preemptive measures are pointless as all they really do is cause peaks and troughs in the infection rate which eventually ends up where it would have anyway, just slightly further down the line. I agree with your final sentence although again I doubt it would have made a lot of difference in reality; we’d be in the position we’re in regardless.

Indeed, I think that we would have needed to close the borders Very early to keep it out; given the number of large hub airports and international travel we have, I'd question if we could. If there's intrest in discussing how to handle a hypothetical future pandemic, I'm happy to raise a thread with a few cases to discuss options?

 

[DustyBin]

You hope for a third lockdown, potentially until Easter?!

See post #1,297 for my thoughts on this (not that it’s my place to tell you who you should and shouldn’t respond to of course).

 

[bramling]

Indeed, I think that we would have needed to close the borders Very early to keep it out; given the number of large hub airports and international travel we have, I'd question if we could. If there's intrest in discussing how to handle a hypothetical future pandemic, I'm happy to raise a thread with a few cases to discuss options?

I don’t think it would have been viable, for a start these last couple of days have shown how much cross-border traffic there is, I can’t see how we could have maintained a robust process. Likewise short of physically locking people in hotels I don’t think it would be possible to have maintained a robust enough quarantining process on the scale required. It wouldn’t take that many cracks in the process to compromise it.

And, of course, what happens if there’s no effective vaccine?

 

[AntoniC]

On Sunday, a friend of my fathers drove from Euxton (Lancashire) to Southport (Merseyside) to drop off presents.
He was stopped on the Formby bypass by Merseyside Police and given 2 hours to drop off the presents and report to Chorley Police Station to prove that he had returned within the 2 hours or he would get a Fixed Penalty Notice.
(He accomplished this).

 

[Chester1]

I don’t think it would have been viable, for a start these last couple of days have shown how much cross-border traffic there is, I can’t see how we could have maintained a robust process. Likewise short of physically locking people in hotels I don’t think it would be possible to have maintained a robust enough quarantining process on the scale required. It wouldn’t take that many cracks in the process to compromise it.

And, of course, what happens if there’s no effective vaccine?

There is a bigger hole in our border than cross channel ferries - Ireland. The Irish Government would have needed to be persuaded to seal its borders or the UK government would have had to quarantined all arrivals from Northern Ireland. Lets say Ireland had agreed to an international "support bubble", the political reaction to trapping people in the UK and Ireland would have been immense. That is assuming all our supplies could be switched to unaccompanied freight almost overnight!

Ireland has "closed its border" with GB because of the new strain. There is a Northern Ireland sized hole in their plan...

 

[bengley]

On Sunday, a friend of my fathers drove from Euxton (Lancashire) to Southport (Merseyside) to drop off presents.
He was stopped on the Formby bypass by Merseyside Police and given 2 hours to drop off the presents and report to Chorley Police Station to prove that he had returned within the 2 hours or he would get a Fixed Penalty Notice.
(He accomplished this).

I had a similar experience going to Southport on the train yesterday from Wigan.

When I got to the barriers at Southport, Merseyside Police had two officers stopping everyone off the train and they sent the two people on front of me back on the train.

I challenged the officer and explained it was guidance and not law. He eventually, after me explaining that 'should avoid' doesn't equate to 'must not', said that it might not be law but to think of the moral impact of spreading the virus from tier 3 to 2. I explained that his job was to uphold the law, not morals.

He let me carry on with my day

 

[DustyBin]

It looks like a done deal I’m afraid:

Tier 4 set to spread north but ministers could stop short of lockdown

Ministers and scientists are due to meet this morning to discuss whether changes need to be made before the planned December 30 review of the system introduced last week.

www.dailymail.co.uk

• Department of Health data shows Covid infections are growing rapidly in London, the South East and East
• But the presence of a new strain of Covid-19 could extend Tier 4 out to the South West, Midlands and North
• Birmingham was spared from Tier 4 lockdown today - but new rules could be announced as soon as today
• No10's scientific advisers blame spread on a mutated form thought to be up to 70 per cent more infectious
• Deaths have also started to soar in line with the spike in cases across the three badly-hit regions, data shows
• Home Secretary Priti Patel refused to rule out national lockdown, commenting: 'Our objective is to save lives'

Say what you like about the DM but they’re a good indicator of what’s coming restriction wise (unfortunately)....

 

[Bantamzen]

Hopefully all of England gets put into lockdown(and I mean a proper lockdown like March) by Boxing day although it really should be with immediate effect regardless of Xmas, cases are out of control, signs the North West is starting to rise again and I do feel other parts could easily start to rise again. The numbers usually peak on a Wednesday/Thursday so we could hit over 40,000 cases by then.

High chance the death rate will start to rise also given the lag effect. Horrible situation and I'm having my doubts about how well this vaccine will be rolled out so I can't see things getting back to normal by Easter either.

Hopefully? So you're happy to completely stuff millions of jobs, tax revenue (which pays for the NHS BTW) & people's mental wellbeing when we have a vaccine rapidly rolling out, better treatment for those suffering the most and an IFR that is dropping all the time (globally estimated at 02-0.3%). Frankly I'm shocked that there are many people left who are clambering for wholescale, seemingly unlimited lockdowns. I can only assume you are aware of the location of the magic money tree we can shake down? So if you'd be so kind to let the Chancellor know.....

It looks like a done deal I’m afraid:

Tier 4 set to spread north but ministers could stop short of lockdown

Ministers and scientists are due to meet this morning to discuss whether changes need to be made before the planned December 30 review of the system introduced last week.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Say what you like about the DM but they’re a good indicator of what’s coming restriction wise (unfortunately)....

I'll tell you what, with rates falling in many areas of the North, a T4 will anger a lot of people myself included.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Interesting thread on Twitter where several people are reporting that they know of people who have died of various things, cancers etc., yet the death certificates say Covid. Something really doesn't add up.

Of course, Twitter contributors are always truthful in what they report....with a notable contributor living in the White House...

 

[The Ham]

Hopefully? So you're happy to completely stuff millions of jobs, tax revenue (which pays for the NHS BTW) & people's mental wellbeing when we have a vaccine rapidly rolling out, better treatment for those suffering the most and an IFR that is dropping all the time (globally estimated at 02-0.3%). Frankly I'm shocked that there are many people left who are clambering for wholescale, seemingly unlimited lockdowns. I can only assume you are aware of the location of the magic money tree we can shake down? So if you'd be so kind to let the Chancellor know.....


I'll tell you what, with rates falling in many areas of the North, a T4 will anger a lot of people myself included.

If that global figure is accurate there's two things of note:

- if that's the figure then we'd be looking at a total number of deaths (assuming 100% are infected) of 133,000 to 200,000, so we've had between 1/3 and 1/2 of the total deaths we could expect (the USA has similar values). However once we get to about 2/3 of the deaths then the infection rate would start to fall dramatically. The problem is that estimates have the number of likely infections at less than 1/3.

- that's global average the UK average could be higher than this due to having a greater percentage of older people.

 

[Smidster]

I don't think anyone is really "hoping" for a lockdown - I am sure we can all agree they are incredibly miserable and it certainly isn't fair to say someone is being a troll for having a different point of view on lockdowns even if it is the contrarian position on this forum.

It seems obvious that some places are going to need to move tiers very quickly - the rates in T2 in the area around T4 are growing very quickly

I absolutely hate where we are right now and it isn't just those opposed to restrictions who are struggling mentally but I am really struggling to see the alternatives right now - What would your plan be to get through the rest of Winter until we can get 10 - 15 million vaccinated? And just sticking your fingers in your ears and hoping it goes away isn't an option.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I suppose we don't know how many infections/deaths there'd be if we just went back to normal in theNew Year (a new normal though with odd restrictions here and there - but ones we could by and large tolerate). There would certainly be far fewer suicides - suicides are an issue even non COVID especially around Christmas time.