The future of Heathrow Express Post Crossrail

[matt_world2004]

Moderator note: Posts #1 to #69 originally in this thread:

(1) Great Western Railway Heathrow Express Class 387 Refittment and Service Updates | RailUK Forums (railforums.co.uk)

Hopefully Crossrail will kill it off.

What this means is that the two main London airports have their "premium" service formed of stock with ironing boards (and Fainsa rubbish for first for Heathrow). Maybe some "Welcome to rip-off Britain" branding could be applied to them. Ironically, the two more "budget" London airports (Stansted and Luton) have (or will have have) far better quality services with the FLIRTs and Desiros.

Crossrail is £2 a mile between Hayes and Heathrow. It's actually cheaper to get a cab from the road outside the station

 

[py_megapixel]

Crossrail is £2 a mile between Hayes and Heathrow. It's actually cheaper to get a cab from the road outside the station

Of course, a not-insignificant chunk of that is Heathrow's charge for using the tunnel. I have no idea exactly how much it is, but it appears to be enough that TfL can't just absorb it; Heathrow actually costs more than TfL-owned stations in the same zone.

I would be surprised if there was not an element there of a deliberate effort by the airport's management to make Crossrail less competitive on price terms with the HEx, given that passengers using the latter obviously mak them more money.

I think the real selling point of Crossrail is going to be that businesspeople working in the City can now get a single train through all the way to Heathrow without having to go to Pad first, in a sane amount of time.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think the real selling point of Crossrail is going to be that businesspeople working in the City can now get a single train through all the way to Heathrow without having to go to Pad first, in a sane amount of time.

And that's why I think Crossrail will kill HEx. Paddington is in the sticks. Yes, you can take a taxi from Paddington, but why would you bother with the faff (and cost[1]) when you could take Crossrail all the way there in probably less time overall[2]?

If HEx ran to Waterloo, or Charing Cross, or even Victoria, things would be different. But it doesn't, it basically runs to a West London inner-suburb nowhere near anything.

[1] From experience, business travel is not a money-pit in the way some people think it is - companies are clamping down on wasting money on taxis and the likes hard.

[2] Taxis in central London are slow due to the traffic. Yes, they can go in bus lanes, but in bus lanes you find buses, and buses stop a lot. Even the District Line is mostly faster, and Crossrail will be much faster.

 

[cactustwirly]

And that's why I think Crossrail will kill HEx. Paddington is in the sticks. Yes, you can take a taxi from Paddington, but why would you bother with the faff (and cost[1]) when you could take Crossrail all the way there in probably less time overall[2]?

[1] From experience, business travel is not a money-pit in the way some people think it is - companies are clamping down on wasting money on taxis and the likes hard.

[2] Taxis in central London are slow due to the traffic. Yes, they can go in bus lanes, but in bus lanes you find buses, and buses stop a lot. Even the District Line is mostly faster, and Crossrail will be much faster.

Or you can get HEx to Paddington and change, it'll be quicker and you'll get a much nicer travel environment with luggage racks.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or you can get HEx to Paddington and change, it'll be quicker and you'll get a much nicer travel environment with luggage racks.

You'll get ironing boards or Fainsa Sophias if you pay an even more outrageous fare? Not much of a selling point. I'd agree to some extent if it was still the 332s!

And if you have much luggage, the change will be massive faff. If you don't have much luggage, it can just go by your knees.

 

[cactustwirly]

You'll get ironing boards or Fainsa Sophias if you pay an even more outrageous fare? Not much of a selling point. I'd agree to some extent if it was still the 332s!

Which is still better than a hard tube bench or no seat (if travelling to Heathrow)

 

[Bletchleyite]

Which is still better than a hard tube bench

Have you been on a 345? They are very comfortable with some well-spaced facing seating - very similar to the S-stock, though not quite the same.

or no seat (if travelling to Heathrow)

With long trains running 6 times an hour they are not going to be full and standing other than in the morning and evening peak if that.

 

[matt_world2004]

Or you can get HEx to Paddington and change, it'll be quicker and you'll get a much nicer travel environment with luggage racks.

It won't be much quicker. Once you factor in the interchange with crossrail. Indeed it will probably be slower.

 

[cactustwirly]

Have you been on a 345? They are very comfortable with some well-spaced facing seating - very similar to the S-stock, though not quite the same.

Um yes I have, many times unfortunately.
They are my local trains, they are very uncomfortable. I often wait an extra 5 minutes to take the 387 behind (which is superior in every way).

They are much worse than the S stock, there is no padding whatsoever.

Have you been on a 345? They are only comparable to pacers in terms of comfort.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Dec 2020 ==

It won't be much quicker. Once you factor in the interchange with crossrail. Indeed it will probably be slower.

How?
Crossrail is 25 minutes and Heathrow Express is 15 minutes.
It's not a 10 minute walk from platform 6 to the Crossrail platforms

 

[py_megapixel]

Or you can get HEx to Paddington and change, it'll be quicker and you'll get a much nicer travel environment with luggage racks.

You'll get ironing boards or Fainsa Sophias if you pay an even more outrageous fare? Not much of a selling point. I'd agree to some extent if it was still the 332s!

The question of course, is do people want to:

• Get off their Crossrail (XR) train
• Go through the XR gateline
• Walk across the Pad concourse to the HEx platforms (bearing in mind that this will involve talking their luggage on an escalator or a wait for a lift, as XR platforms will be underground at Pad)
• Get on an HEx train
• Change back to XR again at Heathrow Central, if their flight leaves from T4

all for what? A 10 minute time saving at absolute most, a power socket, and a negligibly more comfortable seat? I don't think so.

Also, pricing wise you should bear in mind that the fare will be the same from anywhere in zone 1 - additionally if you've already hit the relevant zonal cap for Heathrow - which some commuters will already have done, especially if they use a contactless card which caps from Mon-Sun rather than just daily, then you don't pay any more, making the journey effectively free.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Have you been on a 345?

Yes, I think they're fine for what they are doing. They are certainly perfectly acceptable for a half hour journey. They aren't quite as nice as the S-stock but they are very similar.

 

[matt_world2004]

Um yes I have, many times unfortunately.
They are my local trains, they are very uncomfortable. I often wait an extra 5 minutes to take the 387 behind (which is superior in every way).

They are much worse than the S stock, there is no padding whatsoever.

Have you been on a 345? They are only comparable to pacers in terms of comfort.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Dec 2020 ==


How?
Crossrail is 25 minutes and Heathrow Express is 15 minutes.
It's not a 10 minute walk from platform 6 to the Crossrail platforms

7 minute journey time difference between Crossrail and Heathrow express. That would be swallowed up quite easily by a five minute interchange time and two minutes train wait time

Five minutes is optimistic with luggage.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Not a chance.

I agree; it's not possible.

For those who want the maths:

It's a bit under 14½ miles from Paddington to Heathrow Central. It would therefore require a start to stop average speed of 87 mph to get a 10 minute timing.

That's average. As in, it would have to average doing that speed from the buffer stops at Paddington right through to a standstill at Central. This means having to be doing an awful lot more than 87 mph for a considerable portion of the journey and that's not taking into account the speed limits over the flyovers at Airport Junction. To achieve such an average, it would very likely require achieving TGV type speeds between Paddington and Airport Junction.

 

[Horizon22]

Have you been on a 345? They are very comfortable with some well-spaced facing seating - very similar to the S-stock, though not quite the same.

With long trains running 6 times an hour they are not going to be full and standing other than in the morning and evening peak if that.

Comfortable? The longitudinal seats are like rocks.

 

[cactustwirly]

The question of course, is do people want to:

• Get off their Crossrail (XR) train
• Go through the XR gateline
• Walk across the Pad concourse to the HEx platforms (bearing in mind that this will involve talking their luggage on an escalator or a wait for a lift, as XR platforms will be underground at Pad)
• Get on an HEx train
• Change back to XR again at Heathrow Central, if their flight leaves from T4

all for what? A 10 minute time saving at absolute most, a power socket, and a negligibly more comfortable seat? I don't think so.

Also, pricing wise you should bear in mind that the fare will be the same from anywhere in zone 1 - additionally if you've already hit the relevant zonal cap for Heathrow - which some commuters will already have done, especially if they use a contactless card which caps from Mon-Sun rather than just daily, then you don't pay any more, making the journey effectively free.

HEx isn't aimed at commuters, it's for rich tourists from the Far East/America, who have most likely flown business class.

 

[JonathanH]

HEx isn't aimed at commuters, it's for rich tourists from the Far East/America, who have most likely flown business class.

It also isn't aimed at people who then go and get on the underground when they arrive at Paddington (or even just people whose ultimate destination would be served by the Elizabeth Line.

 

[43096]

Um yes I have, many times unfortunately.
They are my local trains, they are very uncomfortable. I often wait an extra 5 minutes to take the 387 behind (which is superior in every way).

They are much worse than the S stock, there is no padding whatsoever.

Have you been on a 345? They are only comparable to pacers in terms of comfort.

I have. And they are at least comparable to a 387's ironing board, if not a bit better.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It also isn't aimed at people who then go and get on the underground when they arrive at Paddington (or even just people whose ultimate destination would be served by the Elizabeth Line.

It's aimed at people who take taxis on arrival at Paddington (because they almost certainly aren't going to near Paddington itself, because there's nothing really there other than cheap hotels). But why would you go through the faff of that when you can take a direct Crossrail train to the parts of London you almost certainly do want to go to?

It's less about the price and more about the convenience, if anything. If HEx ran onto Crossrail, it might do well selling the "bit faster, luxury" thing. But we are talking about an additional, pointless change which is time and effort. If anything, Crossrail offers the service worth paying more for - direct to the City and Canary Wharf!

 

[JonathanH]

It's aimed at people who take taxis on arrival at Paddington (because they almost certainly aren't going to near Paddington itself, because there's nothing really there other than cheap hotels). But why would you go through the faff of that when you can take a direct Crossrail train to the parts of London you almost certainly do want to go to?

Probably because hailing a taxi from the rank at Paddington is easier than getting one at Bond Street or Hannover Square. Their destination may well not be on the Crossrail route (or indeed closer to a Crossrail station than Paddington).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Probably because hailing a taxi from the rank at Paddington is easier than getting one at Bond Street or Hannover Square. Their destination may well not be on the Crossrail route

It may not, but it's fairly likely to be given Crossrail's route.

(or indeed closer to a Crossrail station than Paddington).

It almost certainly will be given Paddington being in the sticks.

 

[Horizon22]

It almost certainly will be given Paddington being in the sticks.

The sticks? I get its not as close as say Victoria or Waterloo but to "central" London, but it's hardly much further that say Euston or St Pancras. And a walkable distance to Hyde Park, Oxford St. A lot of hyperbole about Paddington being an inconvenient terminal and whilst not ideal, its not that bad.

 

[w1bbl3]

And that's why I think Crossrail will kill HEx. Paddington is in the sticks. Yes, you can take a taxi from Paddington, but why would you bother with the faff (and cost[1]) when you could take Crossrail all the way there in probably less time overall[2]?

If HEx ran to Waterloo, or Charing Cross, or even Victoria, things would be different. But it doesn't, it basically runs to a West London inner-suburb nowhere near anything.

[1] From experience, business travel is not a money-pit in the way some people think it is - companies are clamping down on wasting money on taxis and the likes hard.

[2] Taxis in central London are slow due to the traffic. Yes, they can go in bus lanes, but in bus lanes you find buses, and buses stop a lot. Even the District Line is mostly faster, and Crossrail will be much faster.

TfL have for a number of years been replacing bus lanes with cycle paths slowing down buses and where permitted taxi's too. Taxi's can not as it stands use all bus lanes, some are for buses (and cyclists only). So Taxi's have been struggling against TfL subsurface for a while of course the potential for uber to undercut doesn't help either.

I'd agree that the HEx only has a limited life once Crossrail is up and running. The other big market for HEx was western and northern travellers using it to access LHR for mostly business flights rather than drive and park. This is thanks to covid massively reduced and IMHO not likely to return anytime soon post restrictions. Many businesses will now have their year end figures in and be able to compare travel costs 2020 vs 2019 and of the course business/turnover genie that is the amount of discretionary business travel is well and truly out of the bottle.

 

[matt_world2004]

Hex, if they wanted to could undercut the elizabeth line prices. infact yield managment might even mean they make more money this way than they otherwise would of have.

 

[AverageTD]

Looking back at the timetable and how all Heathrow Crossrail services are majority stoppers, I'm surprised tfl didn't try to get 2 of the 4 trains per hour to T4 running a semi-fast stopping pattern (Ealing, Southall, Hayes). It would tighten the gap further with HEX's timing and hopefully kill off some more of T4 travellers who would head to Heathrow Central and change for HEX.

 

[matt_world2004]

Looking back at the timetable and how all Heathrow Crossrail services are majority stoppers, I'm surprised tfl didn't try to get 2 of the 4 trains per hour to T4 running a semi-fast stopping pattern (Ealing, Southall, Hayes). It would tighten the gap further with HEX's timing and hopefully kill off some more of T4 travellers who would head to Heathrow Central and change for HEX.

TfL don't want to kill off Heathrow express. Indeed as a publically owned corporation such a move would go against its public service ethos the way the hex is probably viewed at transport for London is train capacity that is used entirely within London.

There is however animus between TfL and Heathrow airport over a number of issues.

 

[Metal_gee_man]

We must remember Old Oak Common will be adding passengers to XR from HS2, this'll reduce the number of passengers interchanging from one terminal to another in London and ultimately drag more punters away from HEX as they won't be making it to Paddington in the first place.
Yes I wish the 345s were more comfortable but they're not, however 6tph, better connectivity and cheaper fares will win the war and Heathrow will eventually stop paying First Group loads of money to run service thats underused and hugely price inflated

 

[bramling]

You'll get ironing boards or Fainsa Sophias if you pay an even more outrageous fare? Not much of a selling point. I'd agree to some extent if it was still the 332s!

And if you have much luggage, the change will be massive faff. If you don't have much luggage, it can just go by your knees.

Whilst I agree with all of this, surely a lot of people will still arrive at Heathrow and simply default to HEx, especially with some of HEx’s devious marketing which at times has clearly sought to make less clued-up people think HEx is “the” default way to continue their journey?

There’s also the Piccadilly Line to kill, which to be honest isn’t entirely a bad thing as that’s just not cut out for moving large numbers of air passengers. One would expect it to become relegated to a role of providing airport access for airport workers and Londoners living in other parts of west London.

 

[rebmcr]

TfL don't want to kill off Heathrow express. Indeed as a publically owned corporation such a move would go against its public service ethos the way the hex is probably viewed at transport for London is train capacity that is used entirely within London.

There is however animus between TfL and Heathrow airport over a number of issues.

TfL should absolutely want to kill off HEx, because if/when that happens, TfL are then going to pick up the non-stopping paths (and associated revenue) with additional Fast Elizabeth Line services — and end up in the position to negotiate the track access charges right down.

 

[JN114]

Heathrow Airport have invested a huge amount in HEx fleet replacement, and the operational tie up with Great Western - and carry the fiscal risk associated with it.

Heathrow Airport aren’t stupid, they may not be the busiest airport in the world but overwhelmingly their business sense has been right on the money for decades, and has put them at the top table of world airports. And they know their customers. They’ve committed to 10 years of paying Great Western or it’s franchise successor, funded the work on the 387s and so on. They won’t have done so if they didn’t feel they were going to make a return on their investment, regardless of what TfL do.

 

[matt_world2004]

TfL should absolutely want to kill off HEx, because if/when that happens, TfL are then going to pick up the non-stopping paths (and associated revenue) with additional Fast Elizabeth Line services — and end up in the position to negotiate the track access charges right down.

What would TfL do with 4 paths per hour on the fast lines. That can only really be used for improving origin or destination pairs outside London. If the hex was moved to the slows you may have a point.

If the 4tph hex Heathrow slots became available. They would go to GwR for fast Slough and reading services. These services will abstract revenue from the Elizabeth line through Orcats allocations Currently the Heathrow express doesn't because there isn't ticket acceptance between the two.

The concern TfL have with the Heathrow express. Is that Heathrow airport may price dump the express service with TfL not being in a position to compete on price because of the high track access fees it pays.

The handing of the service to first group may make this more likely to happen. Heathrow airport can now claim the infrastructure and the rail service are run by different companies. Even though the infrastructure owner gets all the ticket revenue.