22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Bantamzen]

Yes he does chop and change a bit with his comments. One day he could be very optimistic, and the next he's very pessimistic and saying things that don't really add up.

However, there certainly won't be need or any excuses for another lockdown again, as hospital numbers and deaths are continuing to absolutely tumble down week on week. They won't be surging up again! So no need to worry about that. I'm certainly not!

Boris: "So guys, which group are we appeasing today, the locktivists or the anti-lockdown crowd?"

Press Officer: "Hold on Sir, we are just fixing a YouGov poll to decide"

 

[35B]

This 'Events Research Programme' experiment is ridiculous - as far as I'm aware there's no 'control' event with either no testing and reduced numbers or testing but a capacity crowd. The fact that something like this appears to be encouraged by a lot of the public is scary. There was no need for constant testing when fans were allowed back in in December, when case rates were far higher. There were no plans for testing when fans were meant to be allowed back in September either - though I don't think any games went ahead with fans then.

I don't believe any ethics committee would pass a "control event" such as you suggest - the ethics of assuming spread (the current base case) would make that impossible.

I will make this very clear. I will NOT comply with another national lockdown. It would serve no purpose and be the most authoritarian, damaging law ever imposed on this country, and I would refuse to stand by and let that happen.

You obviously haven't read much history then. I'm not sure what you'd make about the internment regulations of WWII, let alone the Waltham Black Act.

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm not sure I'd call it virtue signalling - more a sign that we over-estimate how good we are, and overstate how bad others are. See also opinions about how good drivers are.

Oh there's little doubt that people over-estimate their abilities, but I do suspect that at least a significant proportion hit that "I'll be good" option to be seen to be doing the right thing, even though its an anonymous poll. Social media is rammed with people virtue signalling left, right and centre, even though they are quite happy to do what they want when they want.

 

[35B]

Oh there's little doubt that people over-estimate their abilities, but I do suspect that at least a significant proportion hit that "I'll be good" option to be seen to be doing the right thing, even though its an anonymous poll. Social media is rammed with people virtue signalling left, right and centre, even though they are quite happy to do what they want when they want.

Which doesn't make it virtue signalling, but a classic case of believing themselves better than they are.

 

[Bantamzen]

Which doesn't make it virtue signalling, but a classic case of believing themselves better than they are.

Well I disagree, someone saying they are going to "behave" in order to be seen to be doing it when not actually "behaving" is very much that in my opinion. But if you don't think that's the case we'll have to agree to disagree, this is probably not the place to argue about the definition.

 

[londonteacher]

I will make this very clear. I will NOT comply with another national lockdown. It would serve no purpose and be the most authoritarian, damaging law ever imposed on this country, and I would refuse to stand by and let that happen.

I love these sort of comments. It's not that you don't have a point because you do. But it's that unfortunately this would not have enough impact on government policy as not enough people would do the same. Get more people to do the same and then it might just work!

 

[Domh245]

There was no sign of an "exit wave" last summer when things opened up, even though no one was vaccinated, so why is it "inevitable" that there will be one this time despite all the vulnerable groups and most of the rest of the population being vaccinated? Surely it is far from "inevitable", and the evidence from last summer together with the numbers now vaccinated points strongly towards there not being one.

The same last summer where there will still quite a lot of restrictions? I might have missed them to be fair - I was still figuring out how to keep my glasses from fogging whilst wearing a mask on public transport, having to sign in to all the hospitality venues I went to and traipsing through ""covid secure"" one way systems

You raise a fair point though, if everyone (at least, most businesses) keep going "above & beyond" what's required, there may well be further suppression of covid into the future, though I'd really rather not have to deal with all that nonsense if I can help it

 

[Dent]

The same last summer where there will still quite a lot of restrictions? I might have missed them to be fair - I was still figuring out how to keep my glasses from fogging whilst wearing a mask on public transport, having to sign in to all the hospitality venues I went to and traipsing through ""covid secure"" one way systems

Even after the relaxations in May, we will still have more restrictions than last summer. None of the relaxations have lead to an "exit wave" before, so why is it "inevitable" that they will this time?

 

[Jamesrob637]

BoJo does have a point however the media have (as usual) blown things out of proportion.

No case/death stats for today but last Tuesday was 26 deaths (mind you, it was effectively another Monday figure)

 

[Class 33]

BoJo does have a point however the media have (as usual) blown things out of proportion.

No case/death stats for today but last Tuesday was 26 deaths (mind you, it was effectively another Monday figure)

2,472 new cases today. And 23 deaths.

 

[DorkingMain]

I love these sort of comments. It's not that you don't have a point because you do. But it's that unfortunately this would not have enough impact on government policy as not enough people would do the same. Get more people to do the same and then it might just work!

Compliance has definitely been quietly but slowly dropping. Not to the extent that the media would have you believe, where everyone goes off to a rave every Friday night, but other smaller breaches.

 

[westv]

What on earth is Boris talking about (on BBC news just now)?

Apparently the reduction in infections, hospitalisations and deaths is not due to vaccinations but is the result of our successful lockdown strategy.... Not only is this completely untrue, but I can't help thinking it keeps lockdowns on the table, because they're the best solution (allegedly). I also believe this kind of rhetoric will lead to more people thinking "what's the point" when it comes to getting vaccinated.

What a stupid (and worrying) thing to say, I can't believe what I've just heard....

Just to clarify, Johnson said it's not just down to vaccinations.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Just to clarify, Johnson said it's not just down to vaccinations.

Did he?

The Sky News clip I saw, he said:

The reduction in hospitalisations, deaths and infections has not been achieved by the vaccination programme.

It's the lockdown that has been overwhelmingly important in delivering this improvement in the pandemic

 

[Yew]

You obviously haven't read much history then. I'm not sure what you'd make about the internment regulations of WWII, let alone the Waltham Black Act.

When else in our history have we been banned from leaving our homes, going to work, or engaging in normal social activity?

I don't believe any ethics committee would pass a "control event" such as you suggest - the ethics of assuming spread (the current base case) would make that impossible.

And yet somehow unproven and non optional interventions are somehow more ethical that allowing the risk of a potentially equal level of transmission of a disease no worse than flu[1] for healthy voulenteers. This country has a very strange definition of 'ethical'.

[1] As per SAGE member and professor of epidemiology Mark Woodhouse

 

[philosopher]

You raise a fair point though, if everyone (at least, most businesses) keep going "above & beyond" what's required, there may well be further suppression of covid into the future, though I'd really rather not have to deal with all that nonsense if I can help it

If all legal restrictions were removed, you would still get some people wearing masks, better hygiene, staying at home when unwell and greater working from home, particularly in the short term. These things would probably reduce the spread of Covid anyway, so there would be less of a need for legal restrictions.

 

[STINT47]

When the January lockdown was announced we were told that there was hope as we now had avacine. We were also told to expect life to be returned to normal by Easter.

Sadly it appears that the vacine isn't what the scientists hoped it would be. I think we may have to get used to some winter restrictions for a few months each year and enjoy what we can in the summers.

It's not good but better to accept it now and we can learn to live with the new system.

 

[Darandio]

When the January lockdown was announced we were told that there was hope as we now had avacine. We were also told to expect life to be returned to normal by Easter.

Sadly it appears that the vacine isn't what the scientists hoped it would be. I think we may have to get used to some winter restrictions for a few months each year and enjoy what we can in the summers.

It's not good but better to accept it now and we can learn to live with the new system.

Erm no, I don't think so.

 

[Lampshade]

When the January lockdown was announced we were told that there was hope as we now had avacine. We were also told to expect life to be returned to normal by Easter.

Sadly it appears that the vacine isn't what the scientists hoped it would be. I think we may have to get used to some winter restrictions for a few months each year and enjoy what we can in the summers.

It's not good but better to accept it now and we can learn to live with the new system.

Not. A. Chance.

 

[Domh245]

When the January lockdown was announced we were told that there was hope as we now had avacine. We were also told to expect life to be returned to normal by Easter.

Sadly it appears that the vacine isn't what the scientists hoped it would be. I think we may have to get used to some winter restrictions for a few months each year and enjoy what we can in the summers.

It's not good but better to accept it now and we can learn to live with the new system.

I don't recall promises of "life as normal by easter" accompanying the announcement in January??

The vaccines have exceeded all expectations that we could have had last year, and are the key to getting out of this, but they aren't the quick win everyone seems to have been expecting. At worst we might expect some voluntary restrictions around face coverings this winter, but your prediction is rather pessimistic, even by this board's standards

 

[takno]

When the January lockdown was announced we were told that there was hope as we now had avacine. We were also told to expect life to be returned to normal by Easter.

Sadly it appears that the vacine isn't what the scientists hoped it would be. I think we may have to get used to some winter restrictions for a few months each year and enjoy what we can in the summers.

It's not good but better to accept it now and we can learn to live with the new system.

The vaccines are significantly more effective than the scientists hoped they'd be. There's no basis whatsoever for ongoing winter restrictions.

 

[Class 33]

In one or two of the press conferences during January/February, Johnson did definitely specifically mention "April 5th Easter Monday" as when life should be back to normal. No idea, what the exact days of those press conferences were though. I could try finding them, but this would be very time consuming and not much fun!

 

[kez19]

When the January lockdown was announced we were told that there was hope as we now had avacine. We were also told to expect life to be returned to normal by Easter.

Sadly it appears that the vacine isn't what the scientists hoped it would be. I think we may have to get used to some winter restrictions for a few months each year and enjoy what we can in the summers.

It's not good but better to accept it now and we can learn to live with the new system.

I’m sorry but I don’t accept that reality, why should we hunker down every winter? Common sense has totally left this planet, yep it looks like we are slowly being controlled to brace ourselves for the future, since when did we all rollover and let it be? This isn’t a future I want to live in

 

[Class 33]

In one or two of the press conferences during January/February, Johnson did definitely specifically mention "April 5th Easter Monday" as when life should be back to normal. No idea, what the exact days of those press conferences were though. I could try finding them, but this would be very time consuming and not much fun!

Quickly found this old posting from me from back in January....

Here is the Downing Street News Conference from 30th December 2020, just a few weeks ago. At the 21m11s point Johnson says "I think there will obviously become a point when we've made so much progress with the vaccines and also with tough tiering that there will be different options. We hope that comes as fast as possible. I think that umm... uhhh.... we've heard previously from Chris Whitty and others that uhhh.... April ..... uhhh.... April the 5th Easter, we really are confident that things will be very very much better. And obviously we'll try and bring that date forward as fast as we can.".

So Johnson, you say April the 5th Easter - or even before then, things will be very very much better. Well we really hope you don't let us down on that. Because it doesn't inspire much confidence that you've already extended the Coronavirus lockdown laws until July!!!

 

[Ascotroyal]

When the January lockdown was announced we were told that there was hope as we now had avacine. We were also told to expect life to be returned to normal by Easter.

Sadly it appears that the vacine isn't what the scientists hoped it would be. I think we may have to get used to some winter restrictions for a few months each year and enjoy what we can in the summers.

It's not good but better to accept it now and we can learn to live with the new system.

Utter nonsense.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Quickly found this old posting from me from back in January....

Well this is your answer

 

[35B]

When else in our history have we been banned from leaving our homes, going to work, or engaging in normal social activity?


And yet somehow unproven and non optional interventions are somehow more ethical that allowing the risk of a potentially equal level of transmission of a disease no worse than flu[1] for healthy voulenteers. This country has a very strange definition of 'ethical'.

[1] As per SAGE member and professor of epidemiology Mark Woodhouse

There are other elements to the definition of "authoritarian" - hence my comparison points. As for the quote from Mark Woolhouse, our understanding of this disease and it's effects has developed a lot since last May.

 

[brad465]

Well Boris’s latest wibble is that the national Lockdown and NOT vaccines is the reason that numbers are lowering to me this sounds like his justification to put us
into another lockdown , when numbers rise again he will give a conference that goes along the lines of....

Scientific data tells me that the national lockdown helped drive the numbers down and as a result helped us to unlock our society but unfortunately numbers have again risen and regrettably I have to inpose another lockdown , his famous quote “ we can hear the beating of the drums as the cavalry arrive at the top of the brow as we move towards normality “

Well very soon those drums won’t be beating because Boris will have sent them back to the bottom of the hill in the form of another lockdown

Boris seems to forget that lockdown should be a last resort, once in a lifetime measure, due to the huge damages they collatorally cause.

Now I worry he seems to be seeing it as a regular tool in his political arsenal.

While it would not surprise me if he did impose another lockdown in future, or at least significant restrictions, to do so will evaporate any gains in support for the Government as a result of the vaccination programme if they do. Not everyone will think this way, there are after all a large proportion of bootlickers that will never be convinced to disagree with Gov policy, but there will be sections of society who are convinced otherwise.

 

[bramling]

Boris seems to forget that lockdown should be a last resort, once in a lifetime measure, due to the huge damages they collatorally cause.

Now I worry he seems to be seeing it as a regular tool in his political arsenal.

The trouble is there’s still people who genuinely want all this to continue. Plenty of people “shocked” the sight of people visiting shops or pubs since Monday, “I am doing my best to try and survive, how are we going to get through this when we see people queuing outside shops?”.

I genuinely don’t get what such people expect to happen. We cannot shut life down forever.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Nice to see Scotland are using data although part of me also feels could be a bit of electioneering going on but with Sturgeon saying

All of that said, because the data in the last two weeks in particular has been so encouraging, we can now give a bit more certainty to individuals and businesses about the way ahead - and indeed accelerate one aspect of the exit from lockdown which I think is important for our personal wellbeing.

Still feel its possible Boris will make some subtle improvements towards end of month.

 

[Class 33]

Good article in The Telegraph tonight....

Enough with the Covid gloom – the worst is behind us

Link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths has been broken – and data is even more positive than we are being told

www.telegraph.co.uk

Enough with the Covid gloom, the worst is behind us​

The link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths has been broken – and the data is even more positive than we are being told

BySarah Knapton, SCIENCE EDITOR13 April 2021 • 9:00pm




It is said that politicians, when they see the light at the end of the tunnel, go out and buy some more tunnel.
Certainly, as Britain emerges, blinking, from the darkness of the Covid epidemic, the Government appears intent on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
On Tuesday, the Department of Health announced that the UK has now offered a vaccination to all the over-50s and vulnerable – the groups accounting for 99 per cent of virus deaths. Yet Boris Johnson went to great lengths to warn that the vaccine rollout has not achieved very much at all, insisting that "the bulk of the work in reducing the disease has been done by the lockdown".
Clearly this cannot be true. The latest figures show that the death rate for the over-60s has fallen dramatically since the rollout and is now close to the under-60s. On Jan 23, the mortality rate for the over-60s was 56.5 in 100,000, while for the under-60s it was 1.3 in 100,000.
Now, the death rate for the over-60s is just 0.9 in 100,000 and under one for the under-60s. The link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths has also been broken, something never achieved by the first lockdown.
On top of this, the data is even more positive than we are being told.
Take death registrations. On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data showing that the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 19 per cent below the five-year average in the week ending April 2.
That is 1,844 fewer deaths than would normally be expected at this time of year, and 319 fewer Covid deaths than the previous week – a drop of around 44 per cent. Yet of the 400 deaths that mentioned the virus on the death certificate, 77 per cent of people actually died from Covid. Nearly a quarter died "with" the disease but not "from" it.

Undoubtedly the figures are slightly skewed because of the Easter Bank Holiday effect, which will see some deaths registered later than usual, but a glance at the five-year average shows that no other Easter Bank Holiday in recent years has shown such a large dip.
A report from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries said excess death rates had been significantly lower than the five-year average for several weeks, which was particularly apparent in vaccinated groups.
Cobus Daneel, who chairs the CMI mortality projections committee, said: "Lockdown restrictions and the vaccination programme have had a significant impact on deaths, and mortality in the past four weeks has been below normal levels for the time of year.
"Deaths have fallen fastest in the oldest age groups, consistent with the vaccination programme targeting those age groups first."

The daily death count is also better than we realise because the Government announces the figures by "reported date of death" rather than "actual date of death", meaning deaths from days or even weeks ago can end up muddled into the daily figure.
Although daily reported deaths in the UK have seen figures of up to 60 in April, the actual daily death rate has remained below 30. England has seen daily cases drop to as low as nine per day.

According to Oxford University, the number of people with an active coronavirus infection in hospital is also far lower than Government figures show. NHS England data reveals that there were 1,154 admissions from the community up to April 4, and by April 5 in England the daily count of confirmed Covid patients in hospital at 8am was 2,680.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford, said: "Making an assumption that the duration of infectiousness is a maximum of seven days, then less than half of the patients currently in hospital are infectious – the number is important as it provides information on active infection as opposed to including those with complications or those waiting for discharge.
"All the data is highly reassuring. The effect of vaccines is that those above 60 have now ended up with a risk that is similar to hose below 60. There is becoming a case over the next couple of weeks to bring forward the reopening of hospitality, but that's offset with caution around big events.
"I think this over-cautiousness can be overcome by using a data-driven approach. The issue is as we go about our daily lives. There will be a slight increase in cases, but the key is not to panic.”
What is becoming increasingly clear is that the Government is terrified to tell the public just how well the country is doing in controlling the pandemic.
In some ways, it is understandable. As the brakes come off and restrictions are lifted, there is a chance that infections will rebound. Yet they have not done so far. Predictions that schools would cause the 'R' number to soar above one have proven baseless, and government scientists now admit that a third wave is unlikely before the autumn.
Even Nicola Sturgeon has accelerated the lifting of restrictions in Scotland due to the huge progress made in reducing Covid numbers. England is seeing similar progress, yet still has two months to go before the full release of restrictions. Surely it is time to give credit for what has been achieved and trust the population to be sensible with its hard-won freedoms?
The light at the end of the tunnel is now clearly in sight. Let's not make the rest of the journey gloomier than it needs to be.