22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[takno]

Bad phrasing on my part; "full" refers to the level of protection offered by the vaccine, not 100% efficacy (which I agree is unachievable). There's a lot of people saying x% have been vaccinated so let's release all measures, missing the large numbers who either haven't been, haven't had time for the vaccine to take effect, or who have still to have a second jab.

Delighted as I am to see the figures coming out of Israel, I also note the spread of Covid in Chile despite it's well advanced vaccination programme and regard that as a reminder that the best case is not the only possible outcome.

The whole Chile thing is pretty desperate. They got to 50% coverage sure, but 2/3rds of the vaccinations were using the Chinese vaccine, which may well not work, or could be more effective against the original Wuhan strain, but absolutely hopeless against the much more infectious than the European strains the rest of us got.

There's also precious little information about who received the vaccines. If they were evenly spread across all age groups, or were focused geographically, or were just given to the rich, they just aren't going to work. Our vaccine rollout looks much more like Israel than it does Chile.

 

[matt]

The Chile story is interesting. Doesn't seem to be widespread reporting of it and I would have expected the scare mongering media to leap onto it which for me questions how relevant it is. But I probably need to do some more research.

Which vaccine is Chile using as I think I read somewhere they are using a less effective one

 

[duncanp]

As happened yesterday.

Looking at the figures yesterday, on April 11th there were 1,127 cases by specimen date and 1,218,037 tests carried out.

Assuming a false positive rate of 0.1%, that means that there would be 1,218 false positives, which is greater than the actual number of positive cases found.

This is the first time this has happened since mass testing started following the reopening of schools.

I appreciate that the number of cases by specimen date for April 11th is likely to rise as more results come in, but even if the number of cases for April 11th were to double (which is unlikely) then false positives would still be more than 50% of total cases.

All of which points to the fact that the prevalence of COVID-19 continues to decline. despite the easing of restrictions.

 

[nlogax]

The Chile story is interesting. Doesn't seem to be widespread reporting of it and I would have expected the scare mongering media to leap onto it which for me questions how relevant it is. But I probably need to do some more research.

In various UK news stories Israel and Chile are being used as two potential scenarios of where the UK could end up.

Chile has had a distinct mix of far less effective vaccine, limited but early (pre Christmas) border reopening and they're now heading back into autumn and winter. I feel the UK is more likely to resemble Israel's success story although I fear vaccine passports will be a part of the plan - again, like Israel.

 

[Eyersey468]

lol

We should all be out enjoying life than being couped in binge watching TV or shall I say letting the news media direct us in what we should do? The media have led the panto on for too long now.

When the truth does eventually come out I do wonder if these same people will apologise to those people who were right about certain things about it or will just willow in self pity and still blame everyone else but themselves.

I agree, somehow I doubt they will apologise though

So do people just stay cooped up forever?

There comes a point where we have to say enough’s enough and time to move on.

Having said that, I do cringe at some of the reports like people queuing for 3/4 mile to enter Primark, surely the whole world didn’t have to descend on the shops in one day?! We took the opportunity to do some other stuff today, and enjoyed some nice empty places. Evidently if there were that many people queuing for shops, there are still loads of people either not at work, or testing the boundaries of “work”ing from home.



I wonder if the person who grassed them up will be doing the same?

I doubt it. Agree about the reports of queues for shops though, surely not everyone has to go to Primark all at the same time

 

[initiation]

also note the spread of Covid in Chile despite it's well advanced vaccination programme and regard that as a reminder that the best case is not the only possible outcome.

A significant part of Chile's programme is done with Sinovac which has one of, if not the lowest efficacy of the ones available.

There's a lot of people saying x% have been vaccinated so let's release all measures, missing the large numbers who either haven't been, haven't had time for the vaccine to take effect, or who have still to have a second jab.

The efficacy of having one dose is significantly higher than expected (70-90%+ for AZ and Pfizer). As an example, the originally published efficacy of a single dose of Pfizer was only 52% but according to the JCVI is actually 90%. Thus we now know that receiving the second dose is much more of a marginal gain. Meanwhile the devastating impacts of lockdowns and restrictions continue. It is another example of the moving goal posts and zero covid creep. Plus the government always refer to only a single dose when setting targets for vaccination by Feb/April etc..

We also competed the first vaccination of all vulnerable groups back in February so there is definitely time for it to have worked. All 9 priority groups have now been offered a first dose; only 1-2 weeks for immunity to kick in so what reason is there to keep restrictions beyond that point?

 

[takno]

I doubt it. Agree about the reports of queues for shops though, surely not everyone has to go to Primark all at the same time

I suspect that a reasonable proportion of that isn't exactly leisure shoppers. Primark is genuinely one of the cheapest places to buy basic clothes, and shops have been closed for a while. If you are somebody who gets by with a couple of pairs of trousers, and one of them was starting to develop a hole around christmas, then things could be looking pretty bleak by now

 

[Eyersey468]

I suspect that a reasonable proportion of that isn't exactly leisure shoppers. Primark is genuinely one of the cheapest places to buy basic clothes, and shops have been closed for a while. If you are somebody who gets by with a couple of pairs of trousers, and one of them was starting to develop a hole around christmas, then things could be looking pretty bleak by now

I can understand people needing clothes.

 

[Djgr]

The whole Chile thing is pretty desperate. They got to 50% coverage sure, but 2/3rds of the vaccinations were using the Chinese vaccine, which may well not work, or could be more effective against the original Wuhan strain, but absolutely hopeless against the much more infectious than the European strains the rest of us got.

There's also precious little information about who received the vaccines. If they were evenly spread across all age groups, or were focused geographically, or were just given to the rich, they just aren't going to work. Our vaccine rollout looks much more like Israel than it does Chile.

The key point about Chile is that they opened up too early. The 1st dose protection only starts kicking in after around 17 days.

In the case of the UK the easing up has started when those vulnerable have way more than 17 days under their belt.

 

[initiation]

The percent of people who think they will behave themselves vs the general public when places reopen. A great demonstration of why opinion polls can't be read in isolation.

 

[Bantamzen]

The percent of people who think they will behave themselves vs the general public when places reopen. A great demonstration of why opinion polls can't be read in isolation.

Good grief, talk about virtue signalling in that poll!!

 

[takno]

Good grief, talk about virtue signalling in that poll!!

I'm not sure it's virtue signalling. It's more a result of the press spending a year telling everybody how bad everybody is. The vast majority of people are basically following the rules, and certainly from their point of view all their infringements were sensible and prudent. The assumption then follows that if the press are going on about people then they must be actively and carelessly flouting the guidelines, because otherwise why would the press be making such a fuss

 

[Ediswan]

Good grief, talk about virtue signalling in that poll!!

Is anonymous virtue signalling a thing ?

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm not sure it's virtue signalling. It's more a result of the press spending a year telling everybody how bad everybody is. The vast majority of people are basically following the rules, and certainly from their point of view all their infringements were sensible and prudent. The assumption then follows that if the press are going on about people then they must be actively and carelessly flouting the guidelines, because otherwise why would the press be making such a fuss

Is anonymous virtue signalling a thing ?

I think it is virtue signalling, even though it is anonymous. Lots of people are still very eager to tell anyone and everyone that they are good little girls & boys, and how everyone else is bad. These results reflect that in my opinion.

 

[DustyBin]

What on earth is Boris talking about (on BBC news just now)?

Apparently the reduction in infections, hospitalisations and deaths is not due to vaccinations but is the result of our successful lockdown strategy.... Not only is this completely untrue, but I can't help thinking it keeps lockdowns on the table, because they're the best solution (allegedly). I also believe this kind of rhetoric will lead to more people thinking "what's the point" when it comes to getting vaccinated.

What a stupid (and worrying) thing to say, I can't believe what I've just heard....

 

[Bantamzen]

What on earth is Boris talking about (on BBC news just now)?

Apparently the reduction in infections, hospitalisations and deaths is not due to vaccinations but is the result of our successful lockdown strategy.... Not only is this completely untrue, but I can't help thinking it keeps lockdowns on the table, because they're the best solution (allegedly). I also believe this kind of rhetoric will lead to more people thinking "what's the point" when it comes to getting vaccinated.

What a stupid (and worrying) thing to say, I can't believe what I've just heard....

This is what happens when we let BoJo off his leash for more than 30 seconds. He'll be saying the opposite tomorrow.....

 

[cuccir]

It's been covered in the Scotland thread but that might get missed by people here so worth noting that Sturgeon's announcement today will allow travel between Scotland and the rest of the UK from the 26th April.

 

[kez19]

It's been covered in the Scotland thread but that might get missed by people here so worth noting that Sturgeon's announcement today will allow travel between Scotland and the rest of the UK from the 26th April.

I’m off in June yay!

What on earth is Boris talking about (on BBC news just now)?

Apparently the reduction in infections, hospitalisations and deaths is not due to vaccinations but is the result of our successful lockdown strategy.... Not only is this completely untrue, but I can't help thinking it keeps lockdowns on the table, because they're the best solution (allegedly). I also believe this kind of rhetoric will lead to more people thinking "what's the point" when it comes to getting vaccinated.

What a stupid (and worrying) thing to say, I can't believe what I've just heard....

Yet isn’t ironic these are the people that championed the vaccines as a way out but seem hellbent regardless, is it really about lives or is it more about them or something more?

 

[Lampshade]

What on earth is Boris talking about (on BBC news just now)?

Apparently the reduction in infections, hospitalisations and deaths is not due to vaccinations but is the result of our successful lockdown strategy.... Not only is this completely untrue, but I can't help thinking it keeps lockdowns on the table, because they're the best solution (allegedly). I also believe this kind of rhetoric will lead to more people thinking "what's the point" when it comes to getting vaccinated.

What a stupid (and worrying) thing to say, I can't believe what I've just heard....

He's sort of right - the lockdown has brought the cases/deaths down, but it's the vaccines that'll stop them shooting up again.

 

[YorkshireBear]

He's sort of right - the lockdown has brought the cases/deaths down, but it's the vaccines that'll stop them shooting up again.

And the vaccine probably (I'm 99% sure) has sped up the rate of decline too.

 

[DustyBin]

He's sort of right - the lockdown has brought the cases/deaths down, but it's the vaccines that'll stop them shooting up again.

I think it was very badly worded, and the news channels (BBC and Sky) are now quoting him without putting his comments into context, which is exactly what I feared. It's almost as if he deliberately wanted to throw a grenade into the mix the way he said it. Clumsy or deliberate? Who knows....

 

[kez19]

I think it was very badly worded, and the news channels (BBC and Sky) are now quoting him without putting his comments into context, which is exactly what I feared. It's almost as if he deliberately wanted to throw a grenade into the mix the way he said it. Clumsy or deliberate? Who knows....

both possibly but then again the media jump the bandwagon or should I really say take the bait?

 

[Class 33]

What on earth is Boris talking about (on BBC news just now)?

Apparently the reduction in infections, hospitalisations and deaths is not due to vaccinations but is the result of our successful lockdown strategy.... Not only is this completely untrue, but I can't help thinking it keeps lockdowns on the table, because they're the best solution (allegedly). I also believe this kind of rhetoric will lead to more people thinking "what's the point" when it comes to getting vaccinated.

What a stupid (and worrying) thing to say, I can't believe what I've just heard....

Yes I couldn't believe what I read. What an earth is he going onabout?

I don't believe for one second that the lockdown is completely responsible for the reduction in infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Sure, it played a part, but the millions of vaccines are very much responsible too. Didn't he even say in some recent press conferences that the vaccines are responsible for getting these stats down??!!

And him saying that hospital admissions and deaths are going to rise again. I don't believe that for one second. Sure there will still be MORE hospital admissions and deaths over the coming months. But the numbers of these will still continue to tumble, they won't surge back up significantly again!

At least he's still saying though that he sees no reason for the roadmap easings to be delayed or deviated from, and that he plans to scrap all social restrictions on 21st June. This really had better be the case!

 

[cuccir]

I don't believe for one second that the lockdown is completely responsible for the reduction in infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Sure, it played a part, but the millions of vaccines are very much responsible too. Didn't he even say in some recent press conferences that the vaccines are responsible for getting these stats down??!!

That's not what was said. The quote from Sky News at least is

yes of course the vaccination programme has helped, but the bulk of the work in reducing the disease has been done by the lockdown

I mean that's undoubtedly true? The peak in January had around 60,000 cases a day, but the first vaccine effect can only really be seen from late February at which point cases had already dropped to around 10,000 a day.

And him saying that hospital admissions and deaths are going to rise again. I don't believe that for one second. Sure there will still be MORE hospital admissions and deaths over the coming months. But the numbers of these will still continue to tumble, they won't surge back up significantly again!

Again, no-one's talking about a surge. The quote is

"So, as we unlock, the result will inevitably be that we will see more infection, sadly we will see more hospitalisation and deaths, and people have just got to understand that."

If anything this is a good statement. It's prepping people to be grown up enough to realize that if there is a rise in infections as we unlock, we shouldn't let that stop us. FWIW I'd agree that the word 'inevitably' needn't be there - most but not certainly not all modelling points to an 'exit wave' and either way models' predictions should never be understood as inevitable.

 

[dave87016]

Well Boris’s latest wibble is that the national Lockdown and NOT vaccines is the reason that numbers are lowering to me this sounds like his justification to put us
into another lockdown , when numbers rise again he will give a conference that goes along the lines of....

Scientific data tells me that the national lockdown helped drive the numbers down and as a result helped us to unlock our society but unfortunately numbers have again risen and regrettably I have to inpose another lockdown , his famous quote “ we can hear the beating of the drums as the cavalry arrive at the top of the brow as we move towards normality “

Well very soon those drums won’t be beating because Boris will have sent them back to the bottom of the hill in the form of another lockdown

 

[Huntergreed]

Well Boris’s latest wibble is that the national Lockdown and NOT vaccines is the reason that numbers are lowering to me this sounds like his justification to put us
into another lockdown , when numbers rise again he will give a conference that goes along the lines of....

Scientific data tells me that the national lockdown helped drive the numbers down and as a result helped us to unlock our society but unfortunately numbers have again risen and regrettably I have to inpose another lockdown , his famous quote “ we can hear the beating of the drums as the arrive at the top of the brow as we move towards normality “

Well very soon those drums won’t be beating because Boris will have sent them back to the bottom of the hill in the form of another lockdown

I will make this very clear. I will NOT comply with another national lockdown. It would serve no purpose and be the most authoritarian, damaging law ever imposed on this country, and I would refuse to stand by and let that happen.

 

[35B]

I think it is virtue signalling, even though it is anonymous. Lots of people are still very eager to tell anyone and everyone that they are good little girls & boys, and how everyone else is bad. These results reflect that in my opinion.

I'm not sure I'd call it virtue signalling - more a sign that we over-estimate how good we are, and overstate how bad others are. See also opinions about how good drivers are.

 

[Class 33]

Yes he does chop and change a bit with his comments. One day he could be very optimistic, and the next he's very pessimistic and saying things that don't really add up.

However, there certainly won't be need or any excuses for another lockdown again, as hospital numbers and deaths are continuing to absolutely tumble down week on week. They won't be surging up again! So no need to worry about that. I'm certainly not!

 

[Dent]

FWIW I'd agree that the word 'inevitably' needn't be there - most but not certainly not all modelling points to an 'exit wave' and either way models' predictions should never be understood as inevitable.

There was no sign of an "exit wave" last summer when things opened up, even though no one was vaccinated, so why is it "inevitable" that there will be one this time despite all the vulnerable groups and most of the rest of the population being vaccinated? Surely it is far from "inevitable", and the evidence from last summer together with the numbers now vaccinated points strongly towards there not being one.

 

[kristiang85]

Boris seems to forget that lockdown should be a last resort, once in a lifetime measure, due to the huge damages they collatorally cause.

Now I worry he seems to be seeing it as a regular tool in his political arsenal.