The Nicola and Alex Show

[DynamicSpirit]

On the contrary, I think the whole mess over the last year has shown that the UK needs to be reformed. The Unionists may well have escaped this time from the independence question, but unless we see federalism implemented in a serious way within 5-10 years, the UK is finished as a whole. I still find it strange and surreal that there's such opposition to an English parliament with the same competences as the Scottish one.

It's not really strange if you consider the relative populations. Scotland is about 8% of the population of the UK - which means that a Scottish Government can be geographically much closer to the people it is Governing than the UK Government can: And that's really the trade off with devolution/federalism: You get an extra layer of Government - which adds bureaucracy and complicates decision making because you have all the issues of, which layer of Government is responsible for each thing - but it can be worth while if it means you get Government that's closer to the the people and better aware of local needs. On the other hand, England is about 84% of the UK by population: That's big enough that having an English Parliament would make next to no difference in terms of being more local than the UK Government - so you'd get all the disadvantages of the extra layer of bureaucracy, with almost no benefit.

 

[Journeyman]

It's not really strange if you consider the relative populations. Scotland is about 8% of the population of the UK - which means that a Scottish Government can be geographically much closer to the people it is Governing than the UK Government can: And that's really the trade off with devolution/federalism: You get an extra layer of Government - which adds bureaucracy and complicates decision making because you have all the issues of, which layer of Government is responsible for each thing - but it can be worth while if it means you get Government that's closer to the the people and better aware of local needs. On the other hand, England is about 84% of the UK by population: That's big enough that having an English Parliament would make next to no difference in terms of being more local than the UK Government - so you'd get all the disadvantages of the extra layer of bureaucracy, with almost no benefit.

If England ever introduced devolution, it would have to be done regionally. A single English Parliament wouldn't work.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If England ever introduced devolution, it would have to be done regionally. A single English Parliament wouldn't work.

I agree. But then you get other problems. Firstly, people in England tend not (with a few exceptions) to have much emotional attachment to their region, which removes one of the motivations for having Government at that level. And secondly, all the regions are so heavily interconnected: Apart from possibly in the West Country, it would be impossible to draw any boundaries that won't result in (a) a lot of infrastructure that straddles regions and so can't sensibly be allocated as the responsibility of one region, and (b) large proportions of the population being mobile on a daily basis between regions - for example working in one region and living in another. That will create significant practical problems if the regions start to diverge in their laws and tax regimes etc. - with a risk of a race to the bottom in terms of environmental regulation/safety/employment law etc. as different regions compete to attract business. A Scottish analogy would be a bit like finding that if you travel from Glasgow to Stirling you find you now have different tax rates/laws/etc.

That problem doesn't really exist for powers devolved to the Scottish Parliament as a whole because of the quirk of geography where the population levels are so low along and for quite a way to the North of the border - but I think it would be a huge problem if you tried to devolve to English regions.

 

[yorksrob]

I think that Yorkshire should be a region in federal Britain, as well as Paletine Lancashire.

 

[takno]

I agree. But then you get other problems. Firstly, people in England tend not (with a few exceptions) to have much emotional attachment to their region, which removes one of the motivations for having Government at that level. And secondly, all the regions are so heavily interconnected: Apart from possibly in the West Country, it would be impossible to draw any boundaries that won't result in (a) a lot of infrastructure that straddles regions and so can't sensibly be allocated as the responsibility of one region, and (b) large proportions of the population being mobile on a daily basis between regions - for example working in one region and living in another. That will create significant practical problems if the regions start to diverge in their laws and tax regimes etc. - with a risk of a race to the bottom in terms of environmental regulation/safety/employment law etc. as different regions compete to attract business. A Scottish analogy would be a bit like finding that if you travel from Glasgow to Stirling you find you now have different tax rates/laws/etc.

That problem doesn't really exist for powers devolved to the Scottish Parliament as a whole because of the quirk of geography where the population levels are so low along and for quite a way to the North of the border - but I think it would be a huge problem if you tried to devolve to English regions.

While there isn't a huge amount of crossing on the Scottish border, there is between Wales and England. Europe has large cities and small town crossing international borders with no significant issues.

I'd also add that most English people I've met have at least as much attachment to their region as they do to England.

The main losers in a move to regional devolution in England would be Scottish nationalists, since the link between devolution and nations in the UK would be broken, and the Barnett formula would likely be replaced with something less generous to Scotland

 

[MotCO]

To bring the discussion back to Sturgeon and Salmond, at present Sturgeon has to rely on the Greens for a working majority. If Salmond splits the SNP vote and becomes larger than the Greens, if Sturgen does not win an overall majority, then will she have to rely on Salmond? Could be fun!

 

[eoff]

I'm not clear if the SNP still have a lot of members that don't want to be in the EU, did they all move to be pro-EU in the late eighties.

 

[317 forever]

It's so frustrating living in a One Party State

Will Sturgeon go on as long as Fidel Castro and will she start smoking Havana's ?

Even in 2015 Scotland was still a 4-party state. There remained albeit minimal representation at Westminster of MPs for Scottish constituencies by the Conservatives, Labour and the LibDems.

Alex Salmond creating this Alba party for the Holyrood lists could enable people to vote Alba for their list vote instead of SNP. Given that the SNP are very likely to win a clear majority of constituencies, this would reduce the "wasted" list votes for the SNP.

 

[HSTEd]

There remained albeit minimal representation at Westminster of MPs for Scottish constituencies by the Conservatives, Labour and the LibDems

As far as I am aware, this is still the case?

 

[oldman]

It's not a total surprise. Nationalists (like the Wings over Scotland guy) have been talking for a while about gaming the system by having a non-SNP independence party to win more of the regional list seats, but is interesting that it has got tied up with feuding between the two charismatic psychopaths.

The good thing is it might damage the authoritarian Scottish Greens who have done well from being the second choice for nationalists.

 

[takno]

It's not a total surprise. Nationalists (like the Wings over Scotland guy) have been talking for a while about gaming the system by having a non-SNP independence party to win more of the regional list seats, but is interesting that it has got tied up with feuding between the two charismatic psychopaths.

The good thing is it might damage the authoritarian Scottish Greens who have done well from being the second choice for nationalists.

The Scottish Greens have been acting like a more-deranged arm of the SNP pretty much since Harvie took over anyway. It's difficult to see a future for them when they barely seem to have an opinion on green issues anymore, and can't keep hold of the few good MSPs that they have. I've used my list vote on them in the past to encourage a bit more diversity in politics, but not a chance I'm doing it again.

 

[brad465]

It's not really strange if you consider the relative populations. Scotland is about 8% of the population of the UK - which means that a Scottish Government can be geographically much closer to the people it is Governing than the UK Government can: And that's really the trade off with devolution/federalism: You get an extra layer of Government - which adds bureaucracy and complicates decision making because you have all the issues of, which layer of Government is responsible for each thing - but it can be worth while if it means you get Government that's closer to the the people and better aware of local needs. On the other hand, England is about 84% of the UK by population: That's big enough that having an English Parliament would make next to no difference in terms of being more local than the UK Government - so you'd get all the disadvantages of the extra layer of bureaucracy, with almost no benefit.

If England ever introduced devolution, it would have to be done regionally. A single English Parliament wouldn't work.

I think that Yorkshire should be a region in federal Britain, as well as Paletine Lancashire.

If it was down to me I would scrap the Governance roles of councils (but keep them for delivery of services), mayors and other forms of half-baked devolution and have a wide network of citizen's assemblies to regularly decide how taxes are spent at local level and what projects/actions go ahead, while the National Government continues to decide overall budgets and major decisions, but is elected via a PR voting system in the hope of being more representative. There maybe a role of devolved Parliaments in this but I'm not sure, but this wider proposal would allow people/voters to have greater influence over how their taxes are spent and on issues that directly affect them, rather than a detached elite who are easily influenced by lobbyists.

Also another SNP MP has defected to the Alba party:

MP Neale Hanvey defects from SNP to new Alba Party

Neale Hanvey, who holds the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath seat, follows Kenny MacAskill in joining Alex Salmond's new party.

www.bbc.co.uk

MP Neale Hanvey has become the second MP to defect from the SNP to join Alex Salmond's new pro-independence party.

The MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath said the Alba Party provided "a tonic for our movement".

On Saturday, former justice secretary Kenny MacAskill announced he would also stand as a candidate for Alba.

Alex Salmond launched the Alba Party on Friday with the aim of building "a supermajority for independence" at Holyrood after the election in May.

Mr Hanvey said: "Like so many, I have been angered by our powerlessness in the face of Brexit and share the frustration of many who feel the aspirations of the independence movement are being ignored.

"The Alba Party provide a tonic for our movement with an unashamedly optimistic vision for Scotland's impending transition to an independent European nation."

 

[Journeyman]

It's hard to work out what to make of these defections - they seem to be people who have fallen out of favour with the SNP, but I can't help thinking the reputation of the SNP as a disciplined, unified and competent party has taken a colossal battering recently.

 

[MotCO]

If it was down to me I would scrap the Governance roles of councils (but keep them for delivery of services), mayors and other forms of half-baked devolution and have a wide network of citizen's assemblies to regularly decide how taxes are spent at local level and what projects/actions go ahead, while the National Government continues to decide overall budgets and major decisions, but is elected via a PR voting system in the hope of being more representative. There maybe a role of devolved Parliaments in this but I'm not sure, but this wider proposal would allow people/voters to have greater influence over how their taxes are spent and on issues that directly affect them, rather than a detached elite who are easily influenced by lobbyists.

My only concern with this is the potential conflict between national and local government. This is fine when they are the same parties, but when they are different, they can be problems and stasis. I can point to problems when the US Senate and President are different parties, ditto Holyrood and Westminster, and GLC/GLA/London Mayor and Westminster. Little can be achieved in either or both tiers.

 

[brad465]

My only concern with this is the potential conflict between national and local government. This is fine when they are the same parties, but when they are different, they can be problems and stasis. I can point to problems when the US Senate and President are different parties, ditto Holyrood and Westminster, and GLC/GLA/London Mayor and Westminster. Little can be achieved in either or both tiers.

When you say 'potential conflict', are you sure that isn't already the case for the different devolved administrations, and also Mayors like Khan and Burnham being different to the National Government?

 

[takno]

My only concern with this is the potential conflict between national and local government. This is fine when they are the same parties, but when they are different, they can be problems and stasis. I can point to problems when the US Senate and President are different parties, ditto Holyrood and Westminster, and GLC/GLA/London Mayor and Westminster. Little can be achieved in either or both tiers.

I think a lot can be achieved as long as there is a reasonable level of respect for the boundaries in who has powers and responsibilities for what. The problem between national and local government at the moment is a combination of wildly childish national policy, and the fact that the national government refuses to allow local government to raise enough to fund their statutory obligations, let alone any of the reasonable and desirable activities which lie in their area of responsibility. That applies between Holyrood and Scottish local councils nearly as much as it does between Westminster and English local councils.

By contrast, while there is plenty of loud public argument and blame games between Westminster and Holyrood, there is pretty solid respect for their respective competencies under the devolution laws, and both are able to get most of what they want done.

 

[Butts]

I'm not clear if the SNP still have a lot of members that don't want to be in the EU, did they all move to be pro-EU in the late eighties.

Omerta applies dissidence is not tolerated.( I can remember when they wanted to leave the EEC as it was and NATO - this has been expunged from SNP History.)

A third of people in Scotland voted to leave the EU and they are not all Unionists.

The closest call to one area voting to leave was Gus B's manor namely Moray

 

[Journeyman]

Omerta applies dissidence is not tolerated.( I can remember when they wanted to leave the EEC as it was and NATO - this has been expunged from SNP History.)

A third of people in Scotland voted to leave the EU and they are not all Unionists.

The closest call to one area voting to leave was Gus B's manor namely Moray

I've come across at least a couple of independence supporters who voted Leave as a tactical decision, seeing it as a way to boost support for independence.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I've come across at least a couple of independence supporters who voted Leave as a tactical decision, seeing it as a way to boost support for independence.

Even though Brexit makes independence even harder if not unworkable

 

[brad465]

Now the Alba party have been able to feature in opinion polling, Panelbase's latest poll suggests the "pro-independence super-majority" Salmond hopes his party will aid is currently looking possible, with the SNP, Scot Greens and Alba together looking at 79/129 seats:

Pro-independence parties tipped for big majority in Scottish election poll

A new poll carried out for The Sunday Times shows that pro-independence parties could win 79 of 129 seats at Holyrood.

news.sky.com

Supporters of Scottish independence look set to win a big majority in next month's Holyrood elections.

The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times suggests that pro-independence parties could win 79 of the Scottish Parliament's 129 seats come the 6 May vote.

With nearly half of the constituency vote, Nicola Sturgeon's SNP would win a narrow outright majority with 65 seats, the Scottish Greens are predicted to win eight seats, and Alex Salmond's new Alba Party are forecast to win six.

 

[takno]

Now the Alba party have been able to feature in opinion polling, Panelbase's latest poll suggests the "pro-independence super-majority" Salmond hopes his party will aid is currently looking possible, with the SNP, Scot Greens and Alba together looking at 79/129 seats:

Pro-independence parties tipped for big majority in Scottish election poll

A new poll carried out for The Sunday Times shows that pro-independence parties could win 79 of 129 seats at Holyrood.

news.sky.com

We'll see. I'd be amazed if it was a big enough or well-enough put-together poll to properly make predictions based on regional lists. It would be pretty easy for the greens and alba to both poll just below the threshold in more or less all regions, and if the alba/green regional voters are the same people as the SNP constituency voters then the SNP could just miss out on loads of seats and still pick up nothing in the lists.

Either way I think there's a good chance of Scotland continuing to be run by a tight cabal clueless idiots, and no chance of Westminster agreeing to a vote. Them's the breaks though

 

[Sad Sprinter]

We'll see. I'd be amazed if it was a big enough or well-enough put-together poll to properly make predictions based on regional lists. It would be pretty easy for the greens and alba to both poll just below the threshold in more or less all regions, and if the alba/green regional voters are the same people as the SNP constituency voters then the SNP could just miss out on loads of seats and still pick up nothing in the lists.

Either way I think there's a good chance of Scotland continuing to be run by a tight cabal clueless idiots, and no chance of Westminster agreeing to a vote. Them's the breaks though

I have a feeling it'll be a pro-union victory in the popular vote. So a stalemate for both sides.

My prediction is that the nationalists will egg on street marches in London, possibly Extinction Rebellion style to infuriate the English and heap further pressure on Boris to give permission for a vote.

 

[brad465]

I have a feeling it'll be a pro-union victory in the popular vote. So a stalemate for both sides.

My prediction is that the nationalists will egg on street marches in London, possibly Extinction Rebellion style to infuriate the English and heap further pressure on Boris to give permission for a vote.

When it comes to popular vote the unionist parties are slightly behind, but it's very close on both listings so could easily change: the Panelbase poll in question gives independence parties 51% (SNP 49% + GRN 2%) vs 49% (CON 22% + LAB 20% + LDM 6%) for constituency votes, while the list polling is 53% vs 47%, with pro-independence as SNP 39% + GRN 8% + ALB 6%; unionists as CON 21% + LAB 17% + LDM 5% + AFU 4%.

 

[Journeyman]

When it comes to popular vote the unionist parties are slightly behind, but it's very close on both listings so could easily change: the Panelbase poll in question gives independence parties 51% (SNP 49% + GRN 2%) vs 49% (CON 22% + LAB 20% + LDM 6%) for constituency votes, while the list polling is 53% vs 47%, with pro-independence as SNP 39% + GRN 8% + ALB 6%; unionists as CON 21% + LAB 17% + LDM 5% + AFU 4%.

I find all of this so depressing. It's like only one political issue in Scotland actually matters.

 

[brad465]

I find all of this so depressing. It's like only one political issue in Scotland actually matters.

I agree, it makes me wonder if, at least from the SNP perspective, they want to talk about it as much as they do because on almost every other issue they're weak, thus are using the independence matter as both a dead cat and means to boost/retain power. Were independence granted the SNP would struggle to think of other policy moves, in the same way UKIP effectively died a death once Brexit was initiated.

 

[Journeyman]

I agree, it makes me wonder if, at least from the SNP perspective, they want to talk about it as much as they do because on almost every other issue they're weak, thus are using the independence matter as both a dead cat and means to boost/retain power. Were independence granted the SNP would struggle to think of other policy moves.

Exactly. There's no real substance to anything else in their manifesto - it's just stuff that happens to be popular with Scottish voters. If they discovered that turning into a fascist dictatorship would boost support for independence, they'd shift position in a heartbeat.

 

[adrock1976]

According to the Glasgow Evening Times rag, there was an article that the sun tanned, loudmouthed, table banging from Pollok Tommy Sheridan (formerly of the Scottish Socialist Party) has joined Salmond's new vanity project.

I could not believe it at first, bearing in mind Salmond is a neocon free market capitalist, and Sheridan classes himself as an international socialist of the Leon Trotsky tradition.

Whatever support Alba may have had amongst the female section of the population may now have been put off totally now Sheridan is on board, with the 2006 and 2010 trials over the News of the World rag publishing Sheridan's visits to swingers clubs in Manchester still fresh in the memory of a lot of peoples minds and the fall out afterwards.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

According to the Glasgow Evening Times rag, there was an article that the sun tanned, loudmouthed, table banging from Pollok Tommy Sheridan (formerly of the Scottish Socialist Party) has joined Salmond's new vanity project.

I could not believe it at first, bearing in mind Salmond is a neocon free market capitalist, and Sheridan classes himself as an international socialist of the Leon Trotsky tradition.

Whatever support Alba may have had amongst the female section of the population may now have been put off totally now Sheridan is on board, with the 2006 and 2010 trials over the News of the World rag publishing Sheridan's visits to swingers clubs in Manchester still fresh in the memory of a lot of peoples minds and the fall out afterwards.

Well George Galloway of similar persuasion is cozying up with the Tories. It's a hell of a time..

 

[telstarbox]

In England the Tories appear to be picking up working class (and especially older) voters at the moment, leading to much hand wringing about Labour's chances for the future.

Is it reasonable to say that the SNP have more of a cross-class appeal hence they're on track to do well today? Who are the Scottish Conservative voters apart from hard unionists at the moment?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 May 2021 ==

.

 

[Butts]

In England the Tories appear to be picking up working class (and especially older) voters at the moment, leading to much hand wringing about Labour's chances for the future.

Is it reasonable to say that the SNP have more of a cross-class appeal hence they're on track to do well today? Who are the Scottish Conservative voters apart from hard unionists at the moment?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 May 2021 ==

.

Scottish Conservative and Unionist actually

Mainly, but not exclusively dinosaurs like me.

Seriously there is still a strong underlying support, these days mainly to be found in Rural Areas and small townships.

Look at The Borders, Pure Blue from End to End if you want a clue - strangely it mirrors England and most of Wales in that respect.

What is it about these Border Dwellers !!