The Nicola and Alex Show

[duncanp]

Just looking at the results in the Scottish consituency votes as of 09:00 on Saturday, and it has Labour on 21.9%, Conservative 21.1% and Liberal Democrats on 8.3%.

This adds up to 51.3% of the votes for unionist parties, so the result of the election isn't perhaps as clear as Nicola Sturgeon would like, in terms of giving her a mandate for a second independence referendum.

Or if she does somehow manage to hold a referendum, it is by no means certain that she will get the result she wants.

Obviously there is the caveat that these figures will change once the rest of the constituency votes are counted, plus the second votes for the regional lists.

But it will be interesting to see what the unionist/nationalist split is, in terms of percentage vote share, once all the votes have been counted.

 

[eoff]

I don't think pesky details like

• the number of people voting,
• the fraction of the vote supposedly on either side of the independence question,
• the weighting of any party's vote for independence (10% makes sense for greens based on their deputy leader's comments on their manifesto pages devoted to this),
• the number of votes cast in this election in comparison to the NO vote in the referendum
• complexities of tactical voting

will matter to the SNP.

The new mantra of a 'Democratic Mandate' based on seats of multiple parties will roll on whatever the result and has only arisen as a way to ignore the single-issue democratic once-in-a-generation referendum result. I'm surprised they would even want a referendum given how close the result will be.

It would be different if there was a clear, large majority for independence expressed by a significant fraction of the population.

 

[Journeyman]

I don't think pesky details like

• the number of people voting,
• the fraction of the vote supposedly on either side of the independence question,
• the weighting of any party's vote for independence (10% makes sense for greens based on their deputy leader's comments on their manifesto pages devoted to this),
• the number of votes cast in this election in comparison to the NO vote in the referendum
• complexities of tactical voting

will matter to the SNP.

The new mantra of a 'Democratic Mandate' based on seats of multiple parties will roll on whatever the result and has only arisen as a way to ignore the single-issue democratic once-in-a-generation referendum result. I'm surprised they would even want a referendum given how close the result will be.

It would be different if there was a clear, large majority for independence expressed by a significant fraction of the population.

Sadly, you're right - Sturgeon will keep banging on about a referendum, because her core vote demands that she does, but as a pro-union voter, I'm encouraged that this doesn't seem to be quite the walkover nationalists expected. Recent polls suggest that even Yes voters are concerned about the timing of a referendum, and support for Yes has dropped to 45%.

It's abundantly clear that pro-union tactical voting has been widespread, and I can't help feeling that demonstrates an underlying resistance to constant talk of another indyref. Outside SNP/nationalist activism, everyone seems absolutely sick of the issue, and wants it to go away.

I hope the list vote goes against the Nats, and especially that Alba don't get anywhere. Quite apart from Salmond being an obnoxious, sexist thug, I get the feeling there's very little appetite for his talk of street protests and immediate independence negotiations.

 

[takno]

It's abundantly clear that pro-union tactical voting has been widespread, and I can't help feeling that demonstrates an underlying resistance to constant talk of another indyref. Outside SNP/nationalist activism, everyone seems absolutely sick of the issue, and wants it to go away.

It's abundantly clear that that is the narrative the press has decided on, and that John Cirtuce had his quotes on the topic prepared before the votes were even counted. The evidence on the ground is much weaker, particularly since the high turnout makes direct comparison much harder.

If you reject the ongoing media narrative that independence is the only thing driving voters, then their argument that any shift in opinion must be tactical voting starts to look pretty facile tbh

 

[Journeyman]

It's abundantly clear that that is the narrative the press has decided on, and that John Cirtuce had his quotes on the topic prepared before the votes were even counted. The evidence on the ground is much weaker, particularly since the high turnout makes direct comparison much harder.

If you reject the ongoing media narrative that independence is the only thing driving voters, then their argument that any shift in opinion must be tactical voting starts to look pretty facile tbh

I stand by my comments.

I know very few people who particularly feel like we need another referendum anytime soon.

 

[takno]

I stand by my comments.

I know very few people who particularly feel like we need another referendum anytime soon.

I think we're mostly agreeing. Even most people I know who are keen on independence think it's likely to be a top 5 priority for the next couple of years. I just don't think there's been a huge amount of evidence of tactical voting.

 

[MotCO]

Recent polls suggest that even Yes voters are concerned about the timing of a referendum, and support for Yes has dropped to 45%.

If that is true, that leaves Sturgeon with a problem. Should she still press for a referendum, in the certain knowledge that she will lose it, and then whatwould then be her raison d'etre? Should she defer calls for a referendum, and risk calls of running scared?

Does she really want independence? Various articles* in the Telegraph point out that Scotland spends more than its tax receipts, with financial assistance from the rest of the UK funding the deficit. If Scotland went independent, how could they bridge the gap (circa 10%)? It would surely lead to tax increases in Scotland which would make her unpopular; at present she can stay in no-man's land and stay popular.

* https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...r-public-spending-financed-taxpayers-england/
Extract:

Scotland’s share of UK public spending is larger than its tax revenue

Top line = Public Spending
Bottom line = Tax receipts

Independent Scotland would need to make up a shortfall in tax revenues

​

SOURCE: UK PARLIAMENT, 2019/20

 

[brad465]

BBC projecting 63 seats for the SNP, two short of an overall majority. The Scottish Greens would still provide a pro-independence party majority (projecting 9 seats), but certainly the SNP don't have the majority they would have liked.

 

[Journeyman]

BBC projecting 63 seats for the SNP, two short of an overall majority. The Scottish Greens would still provide a pro-independence party majority (projecting 9 seats), but certainly the SNP don't have the majority they would have liked.

Blackford is already banging on about another bloody referendum, claiming that "the people of Scotland have spoken".

Once again, the significantly-more-than-half of us who didn't vote SNP are getting marginalised and treated like we don't exist.

 

[takno]

Blackford is already banging on about another bloody referendum, claiming that "the people of Scotland have spoken".

Once again, the significantly-more-than-half of us who didn't vote SNP are getting marginalised and treated like we don't exist.

There's a reason the SNP sent Blackford down to Westminster, where they don't have to listen to him chuntering on and making a fuss about nothing the whole time

 

[duncanp]

Blackford is already banging on about another bloody referendum, claiming that "the people of Scotland have spoken".

Once again, the significantly-more-than-half of us who didn't vote SNP are getting marginalised and treated like we don't exist.

Looking at the latest vote percentages, Labour + Conservative + Liberal Democrat = 50.6%, whilst SNP + Green = 48.7%.

So more votes have been cast for parties who are in favour of Scotland remaining in the UK than for parties who favour independence.

If this were replicated in an actual referendum, then the SNP and the pro independence movement would lose again.

I wonder if Boris Johnson will use this to back up his refusal to grant another referendum.

 

[GusB]

We're only just getting the regional declarations now. I think you're all jumping the gun a bit by basing your opinions on the constituency votes alone.

If you want to complain about percentages, what about the 57.6% of people who didn't vote tory in the last general election? We're still lumped with their policies.

 

[duncanp]

We're only just getting the regional declarations now. I think you're all jumping the gun a bit by basing your opinions on the constituency votes alone.

If you want to complain about percentages, what about the 57.6% of people who didn't vote tory in the last general election? We're still lumped with their policies.

I was aware that my figures didn't include the regional list votes, and it will be interesting to see whether there is a pro independence majority when all the list votes are counted.

The point about working out whether or not there is a pro independence majority in the total number of votes cast is that it in some ways acts as a proxy for an actual referendum.

So even, as looks likely, there is a pro independence majority in the new Scottish parliament, it does not necessarily follow that there will be a Yes vote for independence in any subsequent referendum. The most recent opinion polls show a fall in support for independence.

As for the point about 57.6% of people not voting Conservative at the general election, that is a feature of the first past the post system, and I would favour a version of the system used for electing the Scottish parliament to be used at UK general elections in the future.

 

[yorksrob]

Also, even if we didn't have FPTP, it's unlikely that all the other parties would combine to form an anti-Tory coalition.

 

[Butts]

Blackford is already banging on about another bloody referendum, claiming that "the people of Scotland have spoken".

Once again, the significantly-more-than-half of us who didn't vote SNP are getting marginalised and treated like we don't exist.

The most sensible proposition would be to Grant a Section 30 order and call their bluff and shut him/her up.

Some of us could then enjoy a more serene life ( at least in the short term)

 

[Journeyman]

The most sensible proposition would be to Grant a Section 30 order and call their bluff and shut him/her up.

Some of us could then enjoy a more serene life ( at least in the short term)

That's a dangerous game I wouldn't fancy playing right now.

 

[GusB]

While many of you will disagree with me on the subject of independence, I'm fairly certain some of you will join me when I raise a glass to celebrate Salmond not winning a seat

 

[takno]

While many of you will disagree with me on the subject of independence, I'm fairly certain some of you will join me when I raise a glass to celebrate Salmond not winning a seat

Yes and no. I was hoping for him to more narrowly miss getting a seat and waste a few SNP and Green votes tbh.

 

[GusB]

Yes and no. I was hoping for him to more narrowly miss getting a seat and waste a few SNP and Green votes tbh.

Obviously I don't share that view and I'm quite happy for there to be another Green MSP, but the end result is the same.

 

[Butts]

That's a dangerous game I wouldn't fancy playing right now.

The Scottish Parliament has produced a majority of MSP's who favour a second referendum on Independence - to be fair you can hardly argue they made a secret of it during campaigning.

Westminster should grant a Section 30 order and then put the case for the Union alongside their Scottish Affiliates of the same mind when the time comes.

There should be a clause officially stating this would be the last one for 10 years or some other far off time.

If the Unionist case is strong they should not be fearful of putting it to the test.

The last thing anyone in Scotland needs is a further period of political instability and the whole business dragging on for years.

 

[eoff]

The Scottish Parliament has produced a majority of MSP's who favour a second referendum on Independence - to be fair you can hardly argue they made a secret of it during campaigning.

This is fine, but should how the seats fell be a factor in granting one?

I'm not so sure the SNP have thought this through though apart from seeing some advantage in stirring up anti-English feeling.
If Boris holds his ground then the best they can hope for is a court case to say a referendum itself is within the competency of the parliament. Then all the union-supporting parties have to do is to ask their supporters not to vote and any result would be meaningless.

 

[Journeyman]

This is fine, but should how the seats fell be a factor in granting one?

I'm not so sure the SNP have thought this through though apart from seeing some advantage in stirring up anti-English feeling.
If Boris holds his ground then the best they can hope for is a court case to say a referendum itself is within the competency of the parliament. Then all the union-supporting parties have to do is to ask their supporters not to vote and any result would be meaningless.

You can't ignore a vote with a low turnout, unless you legally make it non-binding if certain conditions aren't met .

 

[eoff]

You can't ignore a vote with a low turnout, unless you legally make it non-binding if certain conditions aren't met .

But the parliament has no competence in matters of the constitution so I was not considering a legally-binding one. The area of ambiguity in law would be on an advisory one and that is what I expected the SNP would want clarified.

 

[ainsworth74]

While many of you will disagree with me on the subject of independence, I'm fairly certain some of you will join me when I raise a glass to celebrate Salmond not winning a seat

Huzzah! I commend this toast to the house!

 

[Scotrail314209]

While many of you will disagree with me on the subject of independence, I'm fairly certain some of you will join me when I raise a glass to celebrate Salmond not winning a seat

Hallelujah.

I'm glad he didn't get in as his party seemed to have really appeared out of nowhere.

 

[GusB]

Final results:

SNP: 64 (+1) Conservatives: 31 (nc) Labour: 22 (-2) Green: 8 (+2) Lib Dem: 4 (-1)

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm glad he didn't get in as his party seemed to have really appeared out of nowhere.

Plus the whole RT business. Has he ever acknowledged that Russia used a nerve agent on UK soil to kill people?

 

[Butts]

Final results:

SNP: 64 (+1) Conservatives: 31 (nc) Labour: 22 (-2) Green: 8 (+2) Lib Dem: 4 (-1)

Are you ever tempted to wish it was FPTP in Scotland ?

It would have been a massacre

Quite contented that we are still number 2 with our hookey system despite it's foibles and a new telegenic Labour Leader.

If Independence comes we will be fighting on a level playing field and you'd better watch out.

The Scottish Conservative (and possibly) ex Unionist Party is here to stay.

 

[adrock1976]

Now that there is a pro independence majority (SNP + Greens), I wonder what version of independence would be put forward?

1) Still pledge allegiance to Lizzie (or Charlie when his time comes), tying a Scottish currency to the British Pound, being a member of NATO (Angus Robertson got the opposition to NATO changed at the 2012 SNP party conference, but the Greens still remain opposed) but still scrapping Trident (which would make it harder, as it took Germany a good number of years to get rid of US tactical missiles as they were under the guise of NATO), rejoining the European Union

or

2) A republic of Scotland that has its own currency, not a member of the EU, and elected members of Parliament not having to pledge allegiance to the monarchy?

 

[Journeyman]

Now that there is a pro independence majority (SNP + Greens), I wonder what version of independence would be put forward?

1) Still pledge allegiance to Lizzie (or Charlie when his time comes), tying a Scottish currency to the British Pound, being a member of NATO (Angus Robertson got the opposition to NATO changed at the 2012 SNP party conference, but the Greens still remain opposed) but still scrapping Trident (which would make it harder, as it took Germany a good number of years to get rid of US tactical missiles as they were under the guise of NATO), rejoining the European Union

or

2) A republic of Scotland that has its own currency, not a member of the EU, and elected members of Parliament not having to pledge allegiance to the monarchy?

No way I'd vote for #1. I'd think about #2, possibly, but let's be honest, it would never win a referendum.

#1 is too much risk for precious little reward.