Wigan to Bolton electrification officially given go ahead

[GRALISTAIR]

What was the outturn cost of Manchester to Euxton (excluding Farnworth tunnel)?

I will try and find the information for you as it has been published and in the public domain. One thing I remember with certainty - on a cost per mile basis it exceeded Great Western Electrification by a good margin.

 

[hwl]

Or you go down the expensive track lowering route.

Expensive depends on the situation. On Secondary routes that was thought to be no prospect of electrification the tendency will have been for the ballast and track height to increase over the years at renewal if it didn't effect non electrified clearances.

With the revised research based lower clearances in the pipeline (but not for this scheme at the moment) the amounts will often be smaller than in the last few years, with relativity smaller amounts of lowering needed. Hence lowering if there are no drainage impacts could be an easy solution especially if there are some problem bridges close together and you can get enough with a pass of the HOPS train. Quieter secondary routes will probably be easier to get agreements for longer blockades for which again gain make lowering easier

 

[jayah]

You are right to question this; £12M/route mile, £78M all up, seems a lot.

However this will have the 40% optimism bias (c£22.3M) built in. Also, such schemes have other expensive enhancements included that even a better diesel service would require. The platform lengthening may well require total rebuilding with DDA access and lifts, NR being a risk averse, ISO9000 organisation that does things the expensive way.

The real test will be train miles and passenger miles converted and traffic growth, together with the wider benefits to the Region, such as cross-city electric services. Strategically, NR must complete to time and budget!

WAO

The risk is very much the other way despite the optimism bias.

There is no reason to think there will be an increase in journeys, except from train lengthening which is independent of the electrification piece anyway.

£78m is something like £280 for every day return sold in a year at each of the three stations - a drop in the ocean of what is being spent. In the case of Atherton the Day Return is about £7 before railcard etc....

 

[Ken H]

The risk is very much the other way despite the optimism bias.

There is no reason to think there will be an increase in journeys, except from train lengthening which is independent of the electrification piece anyway.

£78m is something like £280 for every day return sold in a year at each of the three stations - a drop in the ocean of what is being spent. In the case of Atherton the Day Return is about £7 before railcard etc....

One would expect some increase in journies. the 'sparks effect' Esp if you can squeeze a minute or 2 from end to end schedules.
But the big affect on bottom line will be the reduced maintenance costs of electric train vs diesel train.

 

[jayah]

One would expect some increase in journies. the 'sparks effect' Esp if you can squeeze a minute or 2 from end to end schedules.
But the big affect on bottom line will be the reduced maintenance costs of electric train vs diesel train.

The line speed is only 50mph and the stations are so close together they probably don't manage that. You won't be saving 2mins from that and even if you did the revenue on that line is tiny.

As for reduced maintenance costs, the line has something like 150,000 train miles a year. You won't touch the sides of £78m.

 

[Wolfie]

Good news, and surprising they've actually announced it considering the "stealth" approach being applied to Market Harborough and Church Fenton.

Looking at the time of the post and the date of the announcement, Chris H-H must be an insomniac like me...

Or the time is the end of an embargo and media outlets had the announcement much earlier. IT can be set up to send an email at a particular time too...

 

[snowball]

I think midnight is a fairly standard time for news embargos (embargoes?) to expire.

There remains a minor mystery of why this small scheme, rather than any other, was announced when it was, rather than wait for the Integrated Rail Plan. Maybe 1st September is considered to mark the end of what in a more normal year is called the silly season.

 

[zwk500]

I think midnight is a fairly standard time for news embargos (embargoes?) to expire.

There remains a minor mystery of why this small scheme, rather than any other, was announced when it was, rather than wait for the Integrated Rail Plan. Maybe 1st September is considered to mark the end of what in a more normal year is called the silly season.

Embargoes can end at any time, depending on why they've been put in place. It's very common for embargoes on the content of speeches to be flexible on time so that the press release is immediately after the announcement, but doesn't accidentally get out early.

This scheme was probably announced because the government wish to be seen to be levelling up the north, and this scheme avoids the slightly embarrassing image of ending short of the obvious place. (unlike Colton-Church Fenton or Kettering-Market Harborough)

 

[Wolfie]

Announcing a transport scheme in the Shadow Foreign Secretary's constituency during the middle of a foreign policy crisis....
I am sure its purely co-incidental.

You cynic/realist.... Delete as appropriate...

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It also, in a small way, distracted some of the media from the foreign policy fiascos.
It could also have been sitting on the minister's desk for weeks and 1 September was the first date the government media machine allowed it to be announced.
Helps the decarbonisation agenda prior to COP26 as well.
There's no end of conspiracy theories you could apply to this one.
The DfT has not had an easy summer, mainly because of the hated traffic light system for air travellers.

 

[Ianno87]

£78m is something like £280 for every day return sold in a year at each of the three stations - a drop in the ocean of what is being spent. In the case of Atherton the Day Return is about £7 before railcard etc....

The services that use the route go to more than 3 stations... and the electrification benefits last for 40+ years.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I will try and find the information for you as it has been published and in the public domain. One thing I remember with certainty - on a cost per mile basis it exceeded Great Western Electrification by a good margin.

This chart is shown in the The value of Great Western route modernisation Interim project completion report courtesy of what do they know which is probably the clean electrification costs excluding civils structure clearance works, platform extensions, signalling immunisation and associated H&S measures like bridge parapet adjustments. As ive speculated in posts above these non electrification costs would be of the order of 15-20m tops so by any stretch of the imagination the stkm route costs look excessive for this scheme but I doubt that DofT aka Treasury would have authorised a unit rate in excess of previous abnormal levels so we are all clearly missing something here. Maybe the stations are being given substantial enhancements not just simple platform extensions and going by costs by Soham etc could easily run up 5m a station if access for all compliance is being delivered.

 

[WatcherZero]

Yes the report says thats the clean cost of laying wires and excludes the design as well, further it says the key to achieving low cost is to have long stretches and no poor ground conditions, it points out the previous North West work as somewhere extra cost was added because the contract for designing the wiring was awarded before the contract for designing the foundations (including ground investigations) was completed. I believe that means that as the ground conditions were poor there was a delay until the foundation design was completed and the early work on designing the wires had to be binned.

 

[furnessvale]

The services that use the route go to more than 3 stations... and the electrification benefits last for 40+ years.

More importantly, it keeps the electrification team together while more important decisions are made.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

More importantly, it keeps the electrification team together while more important decisions are made.

Except there are (or were in CP5) multiple electrification teams from at least 5 different contractors.
You also lose any element of price competition with only one supplier.

 

[jayah]

The services that use the route go to more than 3 stations... and the electrification benefits last for 40+ years.

There is no sparks effect from Bolton where the trains can already use OHLE.

There has to become a point at which someone admits it isn't worth the incredible cost and the money, which is scarce, would be better spent on something else.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There is no sparks effect from Bolton where the trains can already use OHLE.

There has to become a point at which someone admits it isn't worth the incredible cost and the money, which is scarce, would be better spent on something else.

Removing DMUs from the railway is potentially, in the context of climate change, worth a very large amount of money. And it has to be done incrementally. Kirkby-Wigan will be done in time (either via wires or battery EMUs) and Southport quite possibly will too.

 

[zwk500]

There is no sparks effect from Bolton where the trains can already use OHLE.

There has to become a point at which someone admits it isn't worth the incredible cost and the money, which is scarce, would be better spent on something else.

The lengthening of 2 trains per hour also applies between Bolton and Manchester, and that capacity is very welcome when you get into the city centre. Also better performance can mean a more resilient timetable through central Manchester, again worth an awful lot to the regional economy.

 

[AM9]

There is no sparks effect from Bolton where the trains can already use OHLE.

There has to become a point at which someone admits it isn't worth the incredible cost and the money, which is scarce, would be better spent on something else.

But money for long-term investment isn't scarce.

 

[hwl]

Removing DMUs from the railway is potentially, in the context of climate change, worth a very large amount of money. And it has to be done incrementally. Kirkby-Wigan will be done in time (either via wires or battery EMUs) and Southport quite possibly will too.

The rail industry will need to spend about £2bn pa till 2050 to decarbonise (there will be some savings from lower EMU operating costs not included in that).
Kirkby / Southport to Wigan are do-able with BEMUs if the Atherton line is also electrified later (need to give some flexibility on destination pairs south /east of central Manchester).

 

[Bald Rick]

The ‘sparks effect’ is a misnomer and misunderstood.

It was applied to the after effects of electrification in BR days, where there were significant increases in passenger numbers. But it wasn’t electrification that did it - it was the significant speeding up of services and extra capacity / frequency enabled by the modernisation that came with electrification that caused it.

Notably, there was a considerable ‘sparks effect’ as a result of HST implementation, and also modernisation fo the Chiltern line, both of which were notable for their lack of electrification.

Where electrification enables quicker services, and more frequent / higher capacity services, you will see the ‘sparks effect’. But where electrification doesn’t bring these things, you won’t.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Notably, there was a considerable ‘sparks effect’ as a result of HST implementation, and also modernisation fo the Chiltern line, both of which were notable for their lack of electrification.

And possibly the most famous (and disastrous) of them all in recent years - the Voyager introduction on XC. Not a pantograph to be seen, but a massive increase in passenger usage (and very quickly, too) set against...an overall slight reduction in capacity. Oops.

 

[snowball]

Notably, there was a considerable ‘sparks effect’ as a result of HST implementation

Sometimes called the nosecone effect.

 

[Ken H]

The ‘sparks effect’ is a misnomer and misunderstood.

It was applied to the after effects of electrification in BR days, where there were significant increases in passenger numbers. But it wasn’t electrification that did it - it was the significant speeding up of services and extra capacity / frequency enabled by the modernisation that came with electrification that caused it.

Notably, there was a considerable ‘sparks effect’ as a result of HST implementation, and also modernisation fo the Chiltern line, both of which were notable for their lack of electrification.

Where electrification enables quicker services, and more frequent / higher capacity services, you will see the ‘sparks effect’. But where electrification doesn’t bring these things, you won’t.

I think some experience the enhanced acceleration of an electric train, and the fact there is no underfloor growl, and prefer that. (I do)
A long journey on a Voyager gives me a headache.
Maybe I am a wimp!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think some experience the enhanced acceleration of an electric train, and the fact there is no underfloor growl, and prefer that. (I do)

I would be interested to know how many passengers haven't noticed the difference between a 195 and 331, the interior being identical. Or indeed a 769 and a pair of 150/2s.

 

[Yindee8191]

I would be interested to know how many passengers haven't noticed the difference between a 195 and 331, the interior being identical. Or indeed a 769 and a pair of 150/2s.

Can’t say about Civities but I travel on Class 800s between Bristol and London regularly and noticing the power changeover after Chippenham requires listening very closely even when I know exactly where it happens.
Then again, Voyagers are very obviously a different experience to Pendolinos despite having similar interiors, and even non-enthusiasts often seem to recognise that.

 

[vic-rijrode]

The ‘sparks effect’ is a misnomer and misunderstood.

It was applied to the after effects of electrification in BR days, where there were significant increases in passenger numbers. But it wasn’t electrification that did it - it was the significant speeding up of services and extra capacity / frequency enabled by the modernisation that came with electrification that caused it.

Notably, there was a considerable ‘sparks effect’ as a result of HST implementation, and also modernisation fo the Chiltern line, both of which were notable for their lack of electrification.

Where electrification enables quicker services, and more frequent / higher capacity services, you will see the ‘sparks effect’. But where electrification doesn’t bring these things, you won’t.

Absolutely correct. I suggest that this is a classic case of features versus benefits that every trainee saleperson is taught early on.

Electrification is the feature. Then the rhetorical question is asked - so what? Significant speeding up of services and extra capacity/frequency is the benefit.

 

[WAO]

It's true that one can have something of a "sparks" effect with a vast installed diesel HP and an augmented service but at a cost. The ECML electrification was in fact justified entirely on avoiding that exorbitant cost (of HST operation) without increased traffic (which it did).

I saw the effect of HST's on the GWML; they stimulated traffic that they were unable to cope with and became horribly overloaded and often erratic in reliability when pushed. Stopping services were even worse.

The Wigan extension will enable cross Manchester EMU journeys between large population centres that will compare very well with the previous 2-car pacers and 150's.

WAO

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's true that one can have something of a "sparks" effect with a vast installed diesel HP and an augmented service but at a cost.

I think to be fair the full fleet replacements of the Snow Hill Lines (150 to 172) and Greater Anglia regional lines (FLIRT) will have probably done that.

 

[WAO]

Nice stock but they can't deliver the capacity of a fleet of 387's.

WAO