Quite a lot of classes have been completely retired from service in the last few years -
- 142 (fully retired 2020)
- 143 (fully retired 2021)
- 144 (fully retired 2020)
- 314 (fully retired 2019)
- 332 (fully retired 2020)
- 365 (fully retired 2021)
- 442 (fully retired 2020)
- 483 (fully retired 2021)
These classes are unlikely to last more than a few years -
- 153 (mid 2020s)
- 313 (mid 2020s)
- 315 (2022)
- 317 (c. 2023-25)
- 319 (c. 2022 - some converted to parcels units)
- 321 (c. 2022)
- 322 (c. 2022)
- 455 (2022 onwards)
- 456 (2022)
- 507 (2022)
- 508 (2022)
- 994 (Tyne & Wear Metro) - (c.2023)
And a few more classes which will probably be gone before the end of the decade -
- 43/HST
- 91/IC225
- 150
- 155
- 180
- 465
- 466
- 769 (can't see them lasting more than 10 years personally)
Wow, thanks for this, saves me a job as I was going to compile something like this myself!
Of those, there's a couple I disagree with/am not sure about:
91/Mk4 - seeing as the latest announcement from the Government on ECML upgrades made no mention of any funding for additional trains, one does have to wonder if the DFT are expecting the remaining 91s to last into the 2030s. Whether they actually make it that long without falling apart is another matter!
153 - can't see the Scottish ones going until whenever the West Highland Line gets hydrogen units, likely in the early 2030s.
A couple of date corrections:
317 - should all be gone by May 2022
994 - first two units have already gone, last ones planned to survive in service until 2025
And some more confirmed replacements:
LU 1973 stock (c. 2026)
DLR B90/B92/B01 (c. 2024)
If I had to have my own guess at some, then I think these ones also won't make it to the end of the decade in service:
175 - not sure anyone will actually want these once TFW have finished with them, they're not reliable and there's not that many of them so they'd be somewhat of a microfleet.
222 - not sure anyone will want them. They're not compatible with the 220/221 fleets so are of little use to XC, and ScotRail may just decide to soldier on with the HSTs until electrification reaches Inverness and Aberdeen near the end of the decade. Those would have been the only reasonable alternative operators for them.
230 - the routes using these are both likely to be incorporated into larger projects in the next 10 years - there's a reasonable chance of the Borderlands line being integrated with Merseyrail, and the Marston Vale line will be incorporated into East-West Rail.
318/320 - these units are getting on and it's already known that ScotRail will need more new EMUs in the next decade for expanding electrification, wouldn't surprise me if the opportunity is taken to replace the 318s and 320s at the same time.
458 - I could easily be wrong about these, but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up with a similar fate to that of the 442s.
CAF Urbos trams in Birmingham and Edinburgh - given the cracks found on trams in Birmingham and Sydney, in the case of the latter leading to an 18 month service suspension, I can't see these trams lasting long.
LU 1972 stock - I'd be amazed if they last until 2030. If replacements aren't delivered I can see the Bakerloo line grinding to a halt as the stock gives up. They've been knackered already for more than a decade.
Siemens/Duewag Supertram - if I recall correctly, discussions are already underway with the view to bidding for funding to replace these trams.
CR4000 - as with the trams above, if I recall correctly discussions are already underway with the view to bidding for funding to replace these trams.
