Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[GC class B1]

She was dire no wonder she's not been allowed to do media stuff and was probably setup last night so they can move her on.

You think you have a problem. She is our MP and is hopeless.

 

[duncanp]

I see that "SAGE Scientists" are now saying that the after effects of the Omicron variant will be with us for FIVE YEARS

Somehow I don't think this will be the case, but these <insert expletive of your choice> doom mongers never give up, in a desperate attempt to stay relevant.

Despite the hopes afforded by boosters, the SAGE papers today suggested Britain will not be coronavirus-free for at least another five years.

Experts suggested some form of measures will be needed for the next half a decade, with constant monitoring required to prevent future waves after Omicron has finished.

SAGE said: 'SARS-CoV-2 will continue to be a threat to health system function and require active management, of which vaccination and surveillance are key, for at least the next five years.'

 

[brad465]

I see that "SAGE Scientists" are now saying that the after effects of the Omicron variant will be with us for FIVE YEARS

Somehow I don't think this will be the case, but these <insert expletive of your choice> doom mongers never give up, in a desperate attempt to stay relevant.

Britain and the rest of the world will most likely never be coronavirus free, let alone be free of it in five years. If we were as a society going to be living in fear of it for at least 5 years we might as well give up on life, which might even make dying with covid a blessing for some.

 

[yorksrob]

I see that "SAGE Scientists" are now saying that the after effects of the Omicron variant will be with us for FIVE YEARS

Somehow I don't think this will be the case, but these <insert expletive of your choice> doom mongers never give up, in a desperate attempt to stay relevant.

It should be possible to orientate the health service towards the additional morbidity/mortality of COVID well within seven years.

Plus, we don't even know the effects of Omicron, other than being the new Delta.

 

[duncanp]

Britain and the rest of the world will most likely never be coronavirus free, let alone be free of it in five years. If we were as a society going to be living in fear of it for at least 5 years we might as well give up on life, which might even make dying with covid a blessing for some.

I don't think we will ever be free of COVID, in the sense that the virus will become endemic, just like the flu virus.

We will need to monitor the number of cases that require medical attention (but not permanent mass testing for everyone) and it is possible that, just as with flu, a certain proportion of the population will require a COVID jab every year.

In the future, drug treatments are likely to become available that will alleviate symptoms and lessen the severity of the illness.

But it should be possible to get back to a "normal" (pre 2020) life by the summer of next year, and by that I mean no face coverings, restrictions (or the threat of them) or vaccine passports.

It may well be 2023 before international travel returns to something like pre 2020 normal.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

You think you have a problem. She is our MP and is hopeless.

I have to say i was staggered of her inability to communicate Tory Central Office must have been i melt down

 

[MikeWM]

I see Scotland are now claiming a Steps concert is the source of some of its 'Omicron' cases. Yet another great success for vaccine passports - an appalling policy that turns out also to be useless.

 

[adc82140]

I see Scotland are now claiming a Steps concert is the source of some of its 'Omicron' cases. Yet another great success for vaccine passports - an appalling policy that turns out also to be useless.

What a tragedy. I bet Nicola is feeling a deeper shade of blue. It's one for sorrow, and better best forgotten.

I await your thoughts in 5,6,7,8....

 

[MikeWM]

What a tragedy. I bet Nicola is feeling a deeper shade of blue. It's one for sorrow, and better best forgotten.

I await your thoughts in 5,6,7,8....

That's an impressive number of bad references in a single post though perhaps more alarming is that I think I got them all...

 

[STINT47]

I see Scotland are now claiming a Steps concert is the source of some of its 'Omicron' cases. Yet another great success for vaccine passports - an appalling policy that turns out also to be useless.

Whilst this is bad news I'm not one for sorrow

 

[yorksrob]

What a tragedy. I bet Nicola is feeling a deeper shade of blue. It's one for sorrow, and better best forgotten.

I await your thoughts in 5,6,7,8....

That's an impressive number of bad references in a single post though perhaps more alarming is that I think I got them all...

I never used to think much of them, but they've done some cracking tunes on their latest album !

 

[joncombe]

I don't think we will ever be free of COVID, in the sense that the virus will become endemic, just like the flu virus.

We will need to monitor the number of cases that require medical attention (but not permanent mass testing for everyone) and it is possible that, just as with flu, a certain proportion of the population will require a COVID jab every year.

In the future, drug treatments are likely to become available that will alleviate symptoms and lessen the severity of the illness.

But it should be possible to get back to a "normal" (pre 2020) life by the summer of next year, and by that I mean no face coverings, restrictions (or the threat of them) or vaccine passports.

It may well be 2023 before international travel returns to something like pre 2020 normal.

I sincerely hope you are right. I've made my views on the imposition of restrictions clear in the past. I'm not going to go over it again. But I'm finding this seemingly never-ending situation very hard to deal with. We were told (one of many lies) that vaccinations were they way back to normality ("cry freedom" anyone?). That has proven not to be the case and finding it hard no no one seems to have any answers apart from a seemingly whack-a-mole approach to re-imposing restrictions if they decide case numbers are too high (which is itself driven by a massive amount of testing).

The latest message from the Government appears to be that if everyone gets a booster it will all be fine, but we were told this about the initial round of vaccinations and I can't see now what will change that we're not having a similar discussion about the 457th booster. I don't want to have restrictions coming back every year. The restriction don't even really make much if any difference. For example I'm hearing the cases in Scotland are likely due to a Steps concert. Of course in Scotland they already have vaccine passports for major events so clearly that didn't do any good here. Unless vaccinations become mandatory or vaccination passports are introduced, I would expect the % having each booster will drop off. I don't support making vaccinations mandatory or Covid passports or restriction those that choose not too. There is a risk to vaccinations. There is a risk to Covid. I decided that for me the risk of vaccinations was far less than of Covid so I was happy to get both doses and I have booked a booster, but I can't quite understand why others may be hesitant. People have died from taking vaccinations. It is a small number for sure (and probably far fewer people overall than if we didn't have vaccinations) but I am not comfortable with the Government mandating (or in effect mandating by excluding those that refuse from large segments of society) something that almost certainly *will* kill someone and I know that in the past it has sometimes taken years for problems of vaccinations to become apparent. Whilst testing is much better now and I am personally not concerned by it, history tells us that it can happen (Not sure what it was called now but I think there was some vaccination in the past ,maybe 60s or 70s, that subsequently was found to cause defects in babies of those that had had it, such as limbs that didn't form). Hopefully someone will know what I'm on about.

Most people surely know viruses mutate, that's why the Flu vaccines differ every year but the press seem to be on a mission to make out it's something unique about Covid that makes it much more dangerous. It isn't, but many are foooled.

Today the BBC were reporting that a recent survey from the ONS indicates around 1/6 adults think we will *never* go back to a normal life as we knew before March 2019. I don't think that will be the case but I'm fearful it might be, especially given that although I think a minority though a sizeable and very vocal minority of the population actually seem to be in favour of restrictions, which I find baffling (presumably those that hope to be on Furlough and so be paid but don't have to work).

It is hard to deal with when there seems to be no end and the goal posts have been shifted so many times that I have precisely zero trust in the Government and almost every other political party seems to be even more in favour of restrictions than the Government.

It is also particularly concerning the restrictions with regard to overseas travel. For example those that went to South Africa (whether for holiday or other purposes) recently after the Government effectively abolished the "red list" and announced that the rules around travel would not be reviewed again until January only to find with once they were there with about 24 hours notice they would be subject to 14 nights quarantine on return (essentially like a prison, frankly) at a cost of over £2000. We used to treat locking people up as something only occurred after being found guilty of a crime, not for having the audacity to travel outside the country. How many people can afford that sort of cost? Likewise having to isolate from anywhere until you can get test results is going to have a big impact on peoples lives as many will be forced to miss work or other commitment's as a result because they believed what the Government had announced would actually be true.

 

[Yew]

I see Scotland are now claiming a Steps concert is the source of some of its 'Omicron' cases. Yet another great success for vaccine passports - an appalling policy that turns out also to be useless.

I bet that was the last thing on their minds when they were at the concert.

 

[Reliablebeam]

I like the way the Daily Mail is treating Meaghan Kall as a 'top UK epidemiologist' - she's a PhD student. I am out of my PhD by a few years and am just about at the point I would be labelled an international expert in my technique...

There wasn't a lot of nervousness on display on my trip on the Uber boat just now - corporate law firm Xmas do heading to Chelsea did not look very covid compliant!!!

 

[duncanp]

It is also particularly concerning the restrictions with regard to overseas travel. For example those that went to South Africa (whether for holiday or other purposes) recently after the Government effectively abolished the "red list" and announced that the rules around travel would not be reviewed again until January only to find with once they were there with about 24 hours notice they would be subject to 14 nights quarantine on return (essentially like a prison, frankly) at a cost of over £2000. We used to treat locking people up as something only occurred after being found guilty of a crime, not for having the audacity to travel outside the country. How many people can afford that sort of cost? Likewise having to isolate from anywhere until you can get test results is going to have a big impact on peoples lives as many will be forced to miss work or other commitment's as a result because they believed what the Government had announced would actually be true.

I am affected by the decisions on overseas travel.

I went to France on November 24th when the requirement for coming back to the UK was an antigen test and no self isolation.

Then Boris Johnson changed the rules and I had to pay an additional £69 ( ) for a PCR test and am now in theory in self isolation until I get the result.

To say I am not happy is an understatement.

It is even more galling when you consider that the Omicron variant is already present in the UK, so that a journey from London to Glasgow is no more risky (in terms of spreading the Omicron variant) than a journey from Lille to Birmingham. (in my case)

 

[yorksrob]

I am affected by the decisions on overseas travel.

I went to France on November 24th when the requirement for coming back to the UK was an antigen test and no self isolation.

Then Boris Johnson changed the rules and I had to pay an additional £69 ( ) for a PCR test and am now in theory in self isolation until I get the result.

To say I am not happy is an understatement.

It is even more galling when you consider that the Omicron variant is already present in the UK, so that a journey from London to Glasgow is no more risky (in terms of spreading the Omicron variant) than a journey from Lille to Birmingham. (in my case)

True, but they're all running around like headless chickens.

 

[takno]

I like the way the Daily Mail is treating Meaghan Kall as a 'top UK epidemiologist' - she's a PhD student. I am out of my PhD by a few years and am just about at the point I would be labelled an international expert in my technique...

There wasn't a lot of nervousness on display on my trip on the Uber boat just now - corporate law firm Xmas do heading to Chelsea did not look very covid compliant!!!

Is the PhD in Epidemiology at least? Most of the top scientists in the press seem to be psychologists, mathematicians and theoretical physicists

 

[timothyw9]

Britain and the rest of the world will most likely never be coronavirus free, let alone be free of it in five years. If we were as a society going to be living in fear of it for at least 5 years we might as well give up on life, which might even make dying with covid a blessing for some.

When has the world ever been coronavirus free? (to use the word correctly).

 

[johnnychips]

Is there still an open thread about observations of mask compliance on trains..?

No. Your I-pad would explode!

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Whilst testing is much better now and I am personally not concerned by it, history tells us that it can happen (Not sure what it was called now but I think there was some vaccination in the past ,maybe 60s or 70s, that subsequently was found to cause defects in babies of those that had had it, such as limbs that didn't form). Hopefully someone
will know what I'm on about.

Thalidomide.

There were also problems with batches of the Polio vaccine. One of the Witness History programmes on Radio 4 last year covered it. Here's an extract from a CNN article - first I found with an internet search.
CNN article - polio vaccine

The Cutter incident​

On April 12, 1955 the government announced the first vaccine to protect kids against polio. Within days, labs had made thousands of lots of the vaccine. Batches made by one company, Cutter Labs, accidentally contained live polio virus and it caused an outbreak.
More than 200,000 children got the polio vaccine, but within days the government had to abandon the program.
"Forty thousand kids got polio. Some had low levels, a couple hundred were left with paralysis, and about 10 died," said Dr. Howard Markel, a pediatrician, distinguished professor, and director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan. The government suspended the vaccination program until it could determine what went wrong.

​

In more recent news
The Guardian - Polio Vaccine spreads Polio

Vaccine-derived polio spreads in Africa after defeat of wild virus​

A new polio outbreak in Sudan has been linked to the oral polio vaccine that uses a weakened form of the virus.

News of the outbreak comes a week after the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that wild polio had been eradicated in Africa.


The WHO linked the cases to a strain of the virus that had been noted circulating in Chad last year and warned that the risk of spread to other parts of the Horn of Africa was high.

In a statement on the new cases, the WHO said two children in Sudan, one from South Darfur state and the other from Gadarif state, close to the border with Ethiopia and Eritrea, were paralysed in March and April. Both had been recently vaccinated against a different strain of polio.

The WHO said initial outbreak investigations showed the cases were linked to a continuing vaccine-derived outbreak in Chad that was first detected last year and is now spreading in Chad and Cameroon.

While so-called vaccine-derived polio is a known risk, the emergence of these cases so soon after the announced eradication of wild polio in Africa is a setback.

At issue is the fact that the oral polio vaccine – preferred in some places because of its ease of delivery and the lack of need for sterile syringes – uses an attenuated or weakened version of polio.

When a child receives the oral vaccine, the weakened virus replicates in the intestine, encouraging the production of antibodies, and can be present in excreta. In an area where there are high enough levels of immunity in the population, this usually does not present a problem, even if sanitation is poor.

But in areas where there is both poor sanitation and a lack of general immunisation the virus can survive and circulate for months, mutating over time until it poses the same risk of paralysis-causing disease as wild polio.

Use of the oral polio vaccine was discontinued in the UK in 2004 and the US in 2000, and the UN agency advises that the use of the oral vaccine should be discontinued after polio is judged to be eradicated because of the risk of vaccine-derived outbreaks.

Genetic sequencing of the virus involved in the Sudan cases confirmed that they were linked to the outbreak in Chad.

The WHO warned on Monday that the risk of further spread of vaccine-derived polio across central Africa and the Horn of Africa was high, noting the large-scale population movements in the region.

Amid the coronavirus pandemic, many major vaccination campaigns needed to stamp out polio have been disrupted across Africa and elsewhere, leaving millions of children vulnerable to infection.


In April, the WHO and its partners reluctantly recommended a temporary halt to mass polio immunisation campaigns, recognising the move could lead to a resurgence of the disease.

In May, they reported that 46 campaigns to vaccinate children against polio had been suspended in 38 countries, mostly in Africa, because of the coronavirus pandemic.


Some of the campaigns have recently been restarted, but health workers need to vaccinate more than 90% of children in their efforts to eradicate the paralytic disease.

Health officials had initially aimed to wipe out polio by 2000, a deadline repeatedly pushed back and missed.

Wild polio remains endemic in Afghanistan and Pakistan; both countries are also struggling to contain outbreaks of vaccine-derived polio.


This article was amended on 16 March 2021 to add further information about the polio vaccine received by the two children in Sudan who were paralysed in March and April.

 

[Towers]

No, they seem to have lost their... er stuff over this new variant, some really strange emails being flying around.

My sister's place cancelled theirs completely

 

[TPO]

Is even a well fitting (no beard) dust mask appropriate for paint/solvents ? I was under the impression that you should use an organic vapour filter.

No, which is one of the reasons I get annoyed.

- Wrong type of mask
- Worn incorrectly

Pointless so why bother, it's a H&S version of virtue signalling

 

[Eyersey468]

@joncombe i completely agree, it feels to me like this will never end. I an also sick of the lies, the hypocrisy and false promises from this government, I don't believe them when they say just one more booster, I don't trust them to not move the goalposts yet again, nor do I trust them when they say this mask wearing charade is just for a few weeks.

 

[asw22]

Different viruses have been around for centuries for example those behind the common cold and possibly the 1890 flu. Therefore it is likely that this virus will be with us forever. In the UK the booster requirement by the end of January followed by another for omicron in around 100 days. Then 114 million vaccine doses bought for 2022 and 2023.

I wonder what would happen if SAGE members (and other scientists) were paid at furlough rates until all restrictions are lifted and if they would find a solution much quicker than in 5 years. If only to show solidarity with the many people in this country impacted by other health issues, financial problems and mental health issues over the past 20 months.

I note that the Steps concert linked to omicron was 22 November = 3 days before the omicron variant was announced as being discovered.

 

[kristiang85]

When has the world ever been coronavirus free? (to use the word correctly).

Never really; as you have alluded to, it is another subset of viruses we have lived with under the umbrella of the common cold, apart from when a novel virus has popped up. One such virus killed many Victorians in the 19th century, yet became part of the common cold repretoire afterwards. This one will do the same. But back then they didn't have the obsessive genome sequencing we do now to become fearful of every single variation in structure...

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

@joncombe i completely agree, it feels to me like this will never end. I an also sick of the lies, the hypocrisy and false promises from this government, I don't believe them when they say just one more booster, I don't trust them to not move the goalposts yet again, nor do I trust them when they say this mask wearing charade is just for a few weeks.

A reading of the above, that makes no mention whatsoever of medical scientific advice given to the Government, would seemingly seem to state that the Government are acting without any reference whatsoever to any medical scientific advice.

 

[jumble]

A reading of the above, that makes no mention whatsoever of medical scientific advice given to the Government, would seemingly seem to state that the Government are acting without any reference whatsoever to any medical scientific advice.

I would love to see what kind of medical scientific advice told the government it was in the slightest bit effective to mandate masks in shops and public transport but not at Winter Wonderland where of course most people attending would have come on TFL.

I wonder when people are going to realise that the only effective way of preventing transmission is full lockdown and for financial reasons this is not likely to happen any time soon
if this Omicron really has an R Rate of 3 then all the mask mandates in the world are not going to make the slightest difference

 

[philosopher]

I wonder when people are going to realise that the only effective way of preventing transmission is full lockdown and for financial reasons this is not likely to happen any time soon
if this Omicron really has an R Rate of 3 then all the mask mandates in the world are not going to make the slightest difference

I agree a lockdown will not happen, the government can’t afford it and it risks it returning every winter, which I think would be clearly unacceptable to much of the population.

However I can see restrictions similar to those in June of this year, i.e social distancing and the rule of six returning. This would set a precedent for such measures returning every winter. This in my view is extremely concerning. Who is going to set up a new restaurant if you potentially can only operate it at half capacity every winter. Winter, which is already a difficult time for many would become even more difficult. Christmas would cease to be a big event and instead becoming a smaller family affair, which has quite a lot implications. Finally, will some people emigrate to countries that do not reimpose restrictions every winter, risking a future brain drain.

 

[Eyersey468]

I agree a lockdown will not happen, the government can’t afford it and it risks it returning every winter, which I think would be clearly unacceptable to much of the population.

However I can see restrictions similar to those in June of this year, i.e social distancing and the rule of six returning. This would set a precedent for such measures returning every winter. This in my view is extremely concerning. Who is going to set up a new restaurant if you potentially can only operate it at half capacity every winter. Winter, which is already a difficult time for many would become even more difficult. Christmas would cease to be a big event and instead becoming a smaller family affair, which has quite a lot implications. Finally, will some people emigrate to countries that do not reimpose restrictions every winter, risking a future brain drain.

I agree, I have felt for a while as it is some sectors will be very hard to get financial backing for new start ups for years as the confidence won't be there. Full lockdowns every winter wouldn't be acceptable to a lot of the population, me included, and the country can't afford it.

 

[Cdd89]

I can see restrictions similar to those in June of this year, i.e social distancing and the rule of six returning. This would set a precedent for such measures returning every winter. This in my view is extremely concerning. Who is going to set up a new restaurant if you potentially can only operate it at half capacity every winter.

If it would genuinely save a lot of lives, I would actually be in favour. Solutions would be found, in terms of heating outdoor spaces, charging more during winter, etc.

The problem is there does not appear to be any correlation between “mild measures” and cases/deaths. And a full lockdown is totally unacceptable.