Southern Class 455 Withdrawal

[03_179]

46 units in total
Today 26 in use and 20 unallocated

 

[tricky18jan]

Does anyone know if 455830 will be used again before timetable change ?

Doesn’t seem to have been allocated since returning from Hove

 

[Mikey C]

Think currently it's 28 455s on weekdays. The Network Rail open data doesn't have formations but there's 25ish fewer concurrent schedules than pre-pandemic and many would have been 2 units. For concurrent schedules the current and May timetables are very similar so expect there's currently several 377s stabled during peaks.

Saturday services are reduced in the May timetable anyway, Victoria - London Bridge, Victoria - Sutton disappear and Milton Keynes cut back to Watford saves most of the requirement before touching the 377s.

Brighton - West Worthing and Brighton - Lewes go as well on Saturday's. Allow 313's to be used on other West/East Coastway services and free's up 377's to be sent North to help out strengthening up there if required.

Are any other operators in London and southeast seeing that drastic cutbacks in May? It seems pretty presumptuous about future travel patterns to remove so much capacity, when passenger numbers are increasing and the summer months are likely to see very low Covid levels?

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Are any other operators in London and southeast seeing that drastic cutbacks in May? It seems pretty presumptuous about future travel patterns to remove so much capacity, when passenger numbers are increasing and the summer months are likely to see very low Covid levels?

No, just GTR.

Although I'm not sure about swr, but Southeatern certainly aren't.

 

[43096]

No, just GTR.

Although I'm not sure about swr, but Southeatern certainly aren't.

SWR have already done their cut backs and lost over 240 vehicles from the fleet.

 

[Southern Dvr]

No, just GTR.

Although I'm not sure about swr, but Southeatern certainly aren't.

SWR removed all the 456s in the expectation that there would never be the demand for long trains again.

SWR have also reduced their timetables significantly.

My suspicion is that GTR is the pioneer for this, the others will then follow suit.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There are currently 28 455's diagrammed on weekdays, and there are 24 377's of various types stabled spare at various points across the network.

Well that makes it look pretty straightforward to effect the withdrawal of the 455/8's then. Guess this is surplus stock that would have worked peak hour extras pre covid?

 

[Peregrine 4903]

SWR have already done their cut backs and lost over 240 vehicles from the fleet.

I know, I was just talking about SWR reducing their timetable in May, which they aren't and neither are Southeastern.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Apr 2022 ==

SWR removed all the 456s in the expectation that there would never be the demand for long trains again.

SWR have also reduced their timetables significantly.

My suspicion is that GTR is the pioneer for this, the others will then follow suit.

The first point I don't agree with, its clear there is no massive requirement for 10 coach trains at the minute, but the 701's will eventually enter service and the 10 coach trains will return them.

I wouldn't say SWR have reduced their timetable significantly, nor have GTR in my view. There have been cut backs on both, but the current May timetable is the lowest GTR will likely go.

I don't agree with your suspicion as both SWR and Southeastern have already cut services, GTR just followed a little later.

 

[Mikey C]

To me the GTR Southern cutbacks in May seem driven by the "happy" coincidence of having the 455s near the end of their life

IF 3 years ago the 455s had been replaced by new 700/701 type stock (assuming it was all in service) or even if an order had been placed for 700s which were just entering service now, then this option wouldn't have existed.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

To me the GTR Southern cutbacks in May seem driven by the "happy" coincidence of having the 455s near the end of their life

IF 3 years ago the 455s had been replaced by new 700/701 type stock (assuming it was all in service) or even if an order had been placed for 700s which were just entering service now, then this option wouldn't have existed.

That's pretty much why the cutbacks are happening, that and GTR's persisting driver shortages.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

That's pretty much why the cutbacks are happening, that and GTR's persisting driver shortages.

Does seem DfT is now targeting any operator over reliant on RDW to cut back on operating costs.

 

[Goldfish62]

I know, I was just talking about SWR reducing their timetable in May, which they aren't and neither are Southeastern.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Apr 2022 ==


The first point I don't agree with, its clear there is no massive requirement for 10 coach trains at the minute, but the 701's will eventually enter service and the 10 coach trains will return them.

I wouldn't say SWR have reduced their timetable significantly, nor have GTR in my view. There have been cut backs on both, but the current May timetable is the lowest GTR will likely go.

I don't agree with your suspicion as both SWR and Southeastern have already cut services, GTR just followed a little later.

There are certainly some significant cuts that have persisted on SWR since the start of the pandemic (on Mon-Fri) , eg
Weymouth services cut by 50%.
Hounslow loop clockwise withdrawn completely outside the peaks and on Saturdays.
Reading services from 4tph to 2tph throughout the day (4tph previously operated for several hours across both peaks).
Last trains across many routes now 30-60 min earlier.

However, apart from the aforementioned Hounslow loop chop weekend services are still as per pre-Pandemic.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

There are certainly some significant cuts that have persisted on SWR since the start of the pandemic (on Mon-Fri) , eg
Weymouth services cut by 50%.
Hounslow loop clockwise withdrawn completely outside the peaks and on Saturdays.
Reading services from 4tph to 2tph throughout the day (4tph previously operated for several hours across both peaks).
Last trains across many routes now 30-60 min earlier.

However, apart from the aforementioned Hounslow loop chop weekend services are still as per pre-Pandemic.

I think GTR have had it worse though.

Milton Keynes Central - East Croydon cut back to Watford Junction - Clapham Junction.

London Bridge - London Victoria, London Victoria - Sutton via Selhurst, Brighton - West Worthing and Brighton - Lewes all gone except in the peaks.

Uckfield down to 2 hourly and East Grinstead down to hourly Monday to Friday both off peak.

Brighton - Hove gone Monday - Friday and only remaining on Saturday.

Moorgate - Welwyn Garden City/Hertford North and Stevenage down to 2tph off peak, and the peak service reduced to 4tph.

London Bridge - Beckenham Junction goes to hourly off peak.

I think that's worse than SWR personally.

To be fair to SWR, their Epsom services have gone from 4 to 2tph and the Waterloo - Poole stopper has been cut back to Winchester - Poole.

 

[Goldfish62]

I think GTR have had it worse though.

Milton Keynes Central - East Croydon cut back to Watford Junction - Clapham Junction.

London Bridge - London Victoria, London Victoria - Sutton via Selhurst, Brighton - West Worthing and Brighton - Lewes all gone except in the peaks.

Uckfield down to 2 hourly and East Grinstead down to hourly Monday to Friday both off peak.

Brighton - Hove gone Monday - Friday and only remaining on Saturday.

Moorgate - Welwyn Garden City/Hertford North and Stevenage down to 2tph off peak, and the peak service reduced to 4tph.

London Bridge - Beckenham Junction goes to hourly off peak.

I think that's worse than SWR personally.

To be fair to SWR, their Epsom services have gone from 4 to 2tph and the Waterloo - Poole stopper has been cut back to Winchester - Poole.

Yes, not good. Probably on a par with SWR at least .

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Yes, not good. Probably on a par with SWR at least .

I didn't even include all the peak extra's which have been heavily reduced or are gone.

London Bridge - Sutton, London Bridge - Eastbourne, London Victoria - Caterham/Tattenham Corner are all gone.

Bedford - Littlehampton, Bedford - East Grinstead are massively reduced.

Luton - Orpington is gone off peak as well.

 

[Goldfish62]

I didn't even include all the peak extra's which have been heavily reduced or are gone.

London Bridge - Sutton, London Bridge - Eastbourne, London Victoria - Caterham/Tattenham Corner are all gone.

Bedford - Littlehampton, Bedford - East Grinstead are massively reduced.

Luton - Orpington is gone off peak as well.

OK, you win. I agree - it's worse!

 

[physics34]

I didn't even include all the peak extra's which have been heavily reduced or are gone.

London Bridge - Sutton, London Bridge - Eastbourne, London Victoria - Caterham/Tattenham Corner are all gone.

Bedford - Littlehampton, Bedford - East Grinstead are massively reduced.

Luton - Orpington is gone off peak as well.

The additional peak cat and tatts to vic going are a big error, also having virtually no east grinstead to london bridge service is very poor. 4 cars on watford services in the peaks will also be an issue

 

[JonathanH]

The additional peak cat and tatts to vic going are a big error, also having virtually no east grinstead to london bridge service is very poor.

Why? Is there any evidence that the residual service on the Caterham/Tattenham route is overloaded? You would imagine that the operator is monitoring revenue and demand on each of its routes since March 2020 and allocating resources accordingly.

The services which run on the cut back network should be those for which there is visible demand, not what looks good on a timetable.

 

[Southern Dvr]

I know, I was just talking about SWR reducing their timetable in May, which they aren't and neither are Southeastern.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Apr 2022 ==


The first point I don't agree with, its clear there is no massive requirement for 10 coach trains at the minute, but the 701's will eventually enter service and the 10 coach trains will return them.

I wouldn't say SWR have reduced their timetable significantly, nor have GTR in my view. There have been cut backs on both, but the current May timetable is the lowest GTR will likely go.

I don't agree with your suspicion as both SWR and Southeastern have already cut services, GTR just followed a little later.

Wait until the 313s go, there are plans to much further reduce the service down.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I didn't even include all the peak extra's which have been heavily reduced or are gone.

London Bridge - Sutton, London Bridge - Eastbourne, London Victoria - Caterham/Tattenham Corner are all gone.

Bedford - Littlehampton, Bedford - East Grinstead are massively reduced.

Luton - Orpington is gone off peak as well.

Many of these services ran round with fresh air most of the day pre covid only filling up through the shoulder of the peak and the peak. DfT mantra now is people want to travel in the rush hour they will just have squeeze in more.

 

[physics34]

Why? Is there any evidence that the residual service on the Caterham/Tattenham route is overloaded? You would imagine that the operator is monitoring revenue and demand on each of its routes since March 2020 and allocating resources accordingly.

The services which run on the cut back network should be those for which there is visible demand, not what looks good on a timetable.

If we are going on the expectation that the peak ridership will be around 80% of pre pandemic levels then the cat and tatts to vic if the ran would be well loaded. Of course i dont hold official figures in my hand but it seems a big reduction in service... and destination choice.

 

[pompeyfan]

The talk of SWR is a bit of a red herring. As others have said, the service reductions aren’t because SWR have no fleet, it’s because the replacement fleet still isn’t good enough. The December 2022 consultation shows that the pre and post pandemic service isn’t great but could be worse. I think it also shows SWT were trying to run too many trains which the network physically couldn’t handle. Just because it worked on paper didn’t mean it worked in reality, congestion on the up fast from Wimbledon to Waterloo is nowhere near as bad as it was.

The only route that sees a reduction in service on the mainline is the Pompey route as the Haslemere shuttles are being binned. There will still be 2 Weymouths, 2 x WoE, a new Southampton semi fast with a Poole Southampton stopper. I think some parts of the inner network are not quite as well served though.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Sorry if asked before, but are the LBG-BKJ and VIC-EPD services worked by 455s on Saturdays?

 

[trainmania100]

Sorry if asked before, but are the LBG-BKJ and VIC-EPD services worked by 455s on Saturdays?

They were when I went a few weeks ago. Got some nice shots with the trams at birkbeck. But a few 377s in the mix too

 

[Islineclear3_1]

They were when I went a few weeks ago. Got some nice shots with the trams at birkbeck. But a few 377s in the mix too

Ok thanks, I'll have to take a chance...

 

[swt_passenger]

The talk of SWR is a bit of a red herring. As others have said, the service reductions aren’t because SWR have no fleet, it’s because the replacement fleet still isn’t good enough. The December 2022 consultation shows that the pre and post pandemic service isn’t great but could be worse. I think it also shows SWT were trying to run too many trains which the network physically couldn’t handle. Just because it worked on paper didn’t mean it worked in reality, congestion on the up fast from Wimbledon to Waterloo is nowhere near as bad as it was.

The only route that sees a reduction in service on the mainline is the Pompey route as the Haslemere shuttles are being binned. There will still be 2 Weymouths, 2 x WoE, a new Southampton semi fast with a Poole Southampton stopper. I think some parts of the inner network are not quite as well served though.

The Dec 2022 consultation preamble effectively admitting running too many trains on the busiest parts of the network really does imply the original franchise commitment and it’s 2018 consultation would have been impossible to run? If you were to compare Dec 2022 with the 2018 intentions there’s a lot more “missing”. The other two Southern TOCs haven’t really been through that process have they?

 

[Goldfish62]

The talk of SWR is a bit of a red herring. As others have said, the service reductions aren’t because SWR have no fleet, it’s because the replacement fleet still isn’t good enough. The December 2022 consultation shows that the pre and post pandemic service isn’t great but could be worse. I think it also shows SWT were trying to run too many trains which the network physically couldn’t handle. Just because it worked on paper didn’t mean it worked in reality, congestion on the up fast from Wimbledon to Waterloo is nowhere near as bad as it was.

The only route that sees a reduction in service on the mainline is the Pompey route as the Haslemere shuttles are being binned. There will still be 2 Weymouths, 2 x WoE, a new Southampton semi fast with a Poole Southampton stopper. I think some parts of the inner network are not quite as well served though.

You're absolutely right on the pre-Pandemic timetable. For example running a 1754 Waterloo to Aldershot via Hounslow and Ascot and a 1758 Waterloo to Reading via Richmond and Ascot, weaving both around stoppers between Waterloo and Barnes while expecting both to run on time really was asking the impossible.

The Windsor lines have had a bit of a hammering with service reductions since the beginning of 2020 and that was to continue in the Dec 2022 timetable consultation.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Wait until the 313s go, there are plans to much further reduce the service down.

Are you sure about that?

 

[Class455]

OK, you win. I agree - it's worse!

I wouldn't be at all surprised if my April fools joke actually becomes reality, or the 455's are drafted back into service in September with the 95% of the pre-COVID timetable restored if customer demand exceeds supply which it looks very likely to do so.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if my April fools joke actually becomes reality, or the 455's are drafted back into service in September with the 95% of the pre-COVID timetable restored if customer demand exceeds supply which it looks very likely to do so.

That definitely wont happen I can assure you.