When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Lost property]

To be honest I see big losses in the 'Red Wall' for the Tories too. Various factors caused the Tories to win last time there: dislike of Corbyn; the personality cult of Johnson; and in a few of the more socially-conservative seats, the cult of Brexit, perhaps.

I doubt any of those factors will play a part next time. More likely is that voters will blame the Tories for the cost of living crisis and the failure of the empty promises that Brexit and 'levelling up' would make their lives better.

I would guess half the 'red wall' seats gained by the Tories will switch back to Labour, notably in the more metropolitan Greater Manchester/West Yorkshire/South Yorkshire areas. With Labour winning the north-west Cumbria unitary authority, those seats are under question too. More socially-conservative seats such as Grimsby and Hartlepool will probably stay Tory but I doubt that will be enough. Add to that some southern seats are almost certain to flip Lib Dem (e.g. Winchester) and others could flip as a result of tactical voting.

Given Greater Manchester remained predominantly Labour, albeit Rishi's altruism came to the fore when he helpfully bunged one of the UK's most deprived areas, Tory Cheadle, along with his own destitute constituency, Richmond N.Yorks, a few quid, I would say the area doesn't really come under the "red wall " seats in terms of voter demographics.

Moving away to the leafy lanes of Cheshire, starting at Altrincham and Sale, and thence to Tatton, Wilmslow, Macclesfield Congleton etc whilst they always have, and will, vote for anything with a blue rosette stuck on any part of the anatomy you care to name, what will be interesting is the size of the majority in these seats at the next GE...that will offer a more telling view of how the current manifestation of the Boris party are perceived in the heartlands

 

[nw1]

Given Greater Manchester remained predominantly Labour, albeit Rishi's altruism came to the fore when he helpfully bunged one of the UK's most deprived areas, Tory Cheadle, along with his own destitute constituency, Richmond N.Yorks, a few quid, I would say the area doesn't really come under the "red wall " seats in terms of voter demographics.

True, but there were a few seats which did flip Tory, such as Bury North and South (which has flipped back due to the MP changing parties), Leigh, and one or two others I think. Admittedly there are more over in Yorkshire though.

Moving away to the leafy lanes of Cheshire, starting at Altrincham and Sale, and thence to Tatton, Wilmslow, Macclesfield Congleton etc whilst they always have, and will, vote for anything with a blue rosette stuck on any part of the anatomy you care to name, what will be interesting is the size of the majority in these seats at the next GE...that will offer a more telling view of how the current manifestation of the Boris party are perceived in the heartlands

Mind you Trafford council is Labour isn't it? So Altrincham and Sale (an area I lived in as a young child, so am moderately familiar with) could be vulnerable; suburban rather than deeply-rural and perhaps quite cosmopolitan.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Moving away to the leafy lanes of Cheshire, starting at Altrincham and Sale.....

You need to get out more. There are leafy lanes in North of the Manchester Region in the Boggart Hole Clough area of Blackley and in the area of the White Hart in the Birch and Bowlee area.

 

[Lost property]

True, but there were a few seats which did flip Tory, such as Bury North and South (which has flipped back due to the MP changing parties), Leigh, and one or two others I think. Admittedly there are more over in Yorkshire though.

Mind you Trafford council is Labour isn't it? So Altrincham and Sale (an area I lived in as a young child, so am moderately familiar with) could be vulnerable; suburban rather than deeply-rural and perhaps quite cosmopolitan.

True, and as you correctly say, there were some defections as it were induced by Boris's "promises ", non of which will ever materialise as has long been established.

Altrincham and Sale....well there have been a few inroads made in the Council elections but a Mr Brady has probably saved himself with a certain HS2 link now no longer being constructed. This will hold a great appeal to those who feel the Cheshire countryside should remain pristine and unblemished....other than for "exclusive gated housing developments for the most discerning buyer " ....and won't be inconvenienced by those ghastly construction works.

And for Xenophon, yep, I am familiar with other parts of Greater Manchester thank you, but, lets be honest, Boggart Hole Clough isn't quite the same as Prestbury now is it ?

 

[D6130]

I think our Tory MP (Craig Whittaker, Calder Valley) must be getting quite worried. It's a highly marginal seat and was held by Labour until 2010. He only won the seat because Labour HQ pulled off some very nasty shenanigans to dump the excellent local candidate in order to parachute-in Stephanie Booth, Cherie Blair's stepmother. She was a complete disaster as a candidate, with no knowledge whatsoever of the area and, as a result, local Labour supporters stayed at home in their thousands on election day. This resulted in a 7.6% swing from Labour to Conservative, with a comfortable 6,431 majority. In the 2015, 2017 and 2019 elections we had a very good and pro-active young local Labour candidate who worked his socks off during the campaigns and very nearly pulled it off in 2017, reducing Whittaker's majority to a mere 609. However, it all went wrong again in 2019, when his majority bounced back to 5,774....presumably in the wake of the Corbyn scares. As a result, our exhausted young Labour candidate decided to call it a day and spend more time with his young family. Since then, no local Labour Party member has put their head above the parapet to be a candidate, so we'll probably have someone else parachuted-in....but if Party HQ can find somebody considerably better than Ms Booth, they may just be in with a chance.

 

[Shrop]

I wonder how long it will take for the Tories to recognise just how damaging Boris is for their Party. Many Labour and LibDem supporters are realising that the longer he stays in power, the more he weakens the Tory prospects for the next General Election, so although they want him out, they're also happy watching the Tory vote get progressively weaker. Quite an odd situation to be in, but all Boris does by staying on is to temporarily preserve himself and his cronies, he's now quite a strong negative for the Tories in the longer term.

 

[Typhoon]

Yes I've noticed similar. Social Media is a terrible way of judging things (if it wasn't then Jeremy Corbyn would have been PM for instance) but it is noticeable that twelve months ago whenever my MP (2019er Jacob Young) tweeted things he'd usually get a half dozen or so positive comments and maybe a half dozen or so negative. In the last couple of months he pretty much only gets negative with perhaps one or two positive comments at most. Occasionally its all negative.

Presumably, however, he's still seeing things which suggest he's okay as he certainly hasn't changed his tune and is backing Boris to the hilt no matter what the caterwauling on Social Media might say!

He's still wet behind the ears, the whips have probably still got him under their thumbs.

I see he's currently having a spat with his predecessor. I'm interested in why someone from Dartford was representing Redcar. The last four elections, it has elected Conservative, Labour, LibDem. It is clearly marginal - it needs candidates who understand it, she may do now but I'm not certain whether the North East is on the syllabus at independent schools or Oxford.

True, but there were a few seats which did flip Tory, such as Bury North and South (which has flipped back due to the MP changing parties), Leigh, and one or two others I think.

Every since I have been interested in politics, Bury has never appeared to be a traditional Labour town.
Bury North - since formation (1983) it has elected Conservative slightly more times than Labour; Bury South the other way about. I don't know the area but I would class it as permanently marginal.

 

[jfollows]

Electoral Calculus currently has Altrincham and Sale West as position 323 in the order of Conservative safest seats - position 1 being the safest seat, Castle Point & Clacton both near the top - and currently predicts seats from rank 239 (Daniel Kawcynski in Shrewsbury, how I wish he loses his seat!) to fall, so Graham Brady certainly has a good chance of losing his seat. Sadly Tatton (my constituency) is "safe" albeit a surprisingly low rank of 213 on the current list - it's usually been around 100.

EDIT I think the reason for the "relegation" of Tatton down the list of safe seats could be because the prediction is based on the proposed new boundaries, in which Tatton gains parts of Congleton and Warrington/Thelwall/Lymm but loses areas around Northwich.

 

[SteveM70]

I think our Tory MP (Craig Whittaker, Calder Valley) must be getting quite worried. It's a highly marginal seat and was held by Labour until 2010. He only won the seat because Labour HQ pulled off some very nasty shenanigans to dump the excellent local candidate in order to parachute-in Stephanie Booth, Cherie Blair's stepmother. She was a complete disaster as a candidate, with no knowledge whatsoever of the area and, as a result, local Labour supporters stayed at home in their thousands on election day. This resulted in a 7.6% swing from Labour to Conservative, with a comfortable 6,431 majority. In the 2015, 2017 and 2019 elections we had a very good and pro-active young local Labour candidate who worked his socks off during the campaigns and very nearly pulled it off in 2017, reducing Whittaker's majority to a mere 609. However, it all went wrong again in 2019, when his majority bounced back to 5,774....presumably in the wake of the Corbyn scares. As a result, our exhausted young Labour candidate decided to call it a day and spend more time with his young family. Since then, no local Labour Party member has put their head above the parapet to be a candidate, so we'll probably have someone else parachuted-in....but if Party HQ can find somebody considerably better than Ms Booth, they may just be in with a chance.

Whittaker’s reduced majority in 2017 was largely down to Rob Holden (disaffected former Tory I believe, arrested this week in Cape Verde having failed to turn up for court to face 60+ charges including voyeurism) standing as an independent and taking just over a thousand votes off him.

He’s a dreadful human being and a pretty ineffective MP, unless you live in the lower valley

 

[daodao]

Electoral Calculus currently has Altrincham and Sale West as position 323 in the order of Conservative safest seats - position 1 being the safest seat,

At the last 2 general elections, there was a noticeable swing towards Labour in the Altrincham and Sale West seat, but in December 2019, the LDs also targetted the seat with a high profile candidate. On the ground, there is no love lost between Labour and the LDs. However, I think that Brady is quite well respected locally and will hold on in what is overall a fairly affluent area; he first won the seat in 1997 when the Bliarites produced a New Labour landslide.

 

[Purple Orange]

A 6,000 majority… that’s not very secure at all in the current climate. I think Altrincham & Sale West is for the taking.

 

[ainsworth74]

He's still wet behind the ears, the whips have probably still got him under their thumbs.

Yes perhaps, though I think he might just be an idiot. I am though, of course, biased

I see he's currently having a spat with his predecessor.

Oh yes those two are always handbags at dawn. Hard to tell who wins really as I'm naturally inclined towards Anna Turley.

I'm interested in why someone from Dartford was representing Redcar. The last four elections, it has elected Conservative, Labour, LibDem. It is clearly marginal - it needs candidates who understand it, she may do now but I'm not certain whether the North East is on the syllabus at independent schools or Oxford.

Yeah she was a bit of a parachute candidate but in her defence she was selected and moved to the constituency in 2013 so she arrived a couple of years before the next general election so was able to be a bit more established than someone who arrived just for the election. But the main thing is she's still here. Of course Covid got in the way but we're approaching two and a half years since she lost her seat and she's still living in the constituency and is still active in the local community (she worked in the local food bank for a while for instance). I have no idea whether she'd seek the nomination of the local Labour party again but whilst it's certainly a little odd that someone with her background ended up representing Redcar (and the Tories do make play of her being "out of touch" from time to time) I think there are far worse examples in my opinion.

I also think that it might not be quite as marginal as the history suggests. The 2010 election when it flipped LibDem had a lot to do with the unpopularity of the local Labour MP (to my knowledge) as well as the drag of a thirteen year old Labour administration and at that time voting Tory was out of the question so really if you didn't want to back that unpopular candidate then the LibDems were the only game in town. In 2015 you had the weakness of the LibDems in general and the fella that won it stood down so you had a relative unknown stand for them in 2015 so flipping back to Labour was the logical move at that point. 2017 it stayed Labour on an increased majority. Then in 2019 when it finally flipped Tory I think look to the wider issues that have been endlessly debated ever since that day in December 2019. Labour weaknesses on Corbyn (I know some people who were door stepping for Labour and people were turned off by Corbyn far more than the policies and Turley) and things like "Get Brexit Done" conspired to flip the seat.

It's by no means the Labour stronghold that was during most of the constituencies history but I'm not quite as sure it's as marginal as the the last twelve years would suggest. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it flip back to Labour and then stay Labour for a sustained period.

 

[Iskra]

Does anyone else think the Wakefield by-election could be a significant nail in the coffin for Boris Johnson? I can see it being a trouncing for the conservatives and a clear rebuttal of all the fruitless ‘levelling up’ talk in the North. I can see a negative result galvanising the Tory party against Johnson.

 

[Typhoon]

Yes perhaps, though I think he might just be an idiot. I am though, of course, biased

Oh yes those two are always handbags at dawn. Hard to tell who wins really as I'm naturally inclined towards Anna Turley.


Yeah she was a bit of a parachute candidate but in her defence she was selected and moved to the constituency in 2013 so she arrived a couple of years before the next general election so was able to be a bit more established than someone who arrived just for the election. But the main thing is she's still here. Of course Covid got in the way but we're approaching two and a half years since she lost her seat and she's still living in the constituency and is still active in the local community (she worked in the local food bank for a while for instance). I have no idea whether she'd seek the nomination of the local Labour party again but whilst it's certainly a little odd that someone with her background ended up representing Redcar (and the Tories do make play of her being "out of touch" from time to time) I think there are far worse examples in my opinion.

I also think that it might not be quite as marginal as the history suggests. The 2010 election when it flipped LibDem had a lot to do with the unpopularity of the local Labour MP (to my knowledge) as well as the drag of a thirteen year old Labour administration and at that time voting Tory was out of the question so really if you didn't want to back that unpopular candidate then the LibDems were the only game in town. In 2015 you had the weakness of the LibDems in general and the fella that won it stood down so you had a relative unknown stand for them in 2015 so flipping back to Labour was the logical move at that point. 2017 it stayed Labour on an increased majority. Then in 2019 when it finally flipped Tory I think look to the wider issues that have been endlessly debated ever since that day in December 2019. Labour weaknesses on Corbyn (I know some people who were door stepping for Labour and people were turned off by Corbyn far more than the policies and Turley) and things like "Get Brexit Done" conspired to flip the seat.

It's by no means the Labour stronghold that was during most of the constituencies history but I'm not quite as sure it's as marginal as the the last twelve years would suggest. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it flip back to Labour and then stay Labour for a sustained period.

Very interesting, thank you. I believe Turley is now quite active in child poverty issues, which must help, but, as someone brought up in an industrial area not that far from Dartford, the idea that I could empathise with the people of Redcar (even though I had several friends from Teeside whilst at University, and attending a wedding of two of them there, and had watched 'The Mighty Redcar') is laughable, even after a couple of years. A decade on, and involved, and known about, she will have much more of an understanding. Labour keeps on dumping candidates on constituencies, and it will hold them back; it is an insult to the constituents.

EDIT:

Just read that Johnson is off to Ukraine again. Obviously expecting a better reception than in Doncaster, where he was due to meet the Northern Research Group of Conservative MPs just days before the Wakefield by-election. However, it was definitely not a snub. It must be pretty busy at Kyiv airport - I think Macron, Scholz and others were there earlier in the week. Maybe they think that Johnson the Statesman will play better than Johnson the Leveller-Up in the by-elections.

 

[Lost property]

Very interesting, thank you. I believe Turley is now quite active in child poverty issues, which must help, but, as someone brought up in an industrial area not that far from Dartford, the idea that I could empathise with the people of Redcar (even though I had several friends from Teeside whilst at University, and attending a wedding of two of them there, and had watched 'The Mighty Redcar') is laughable, even after a couple of years. A decade on, and involved, and known about, she will have much more of an understanding. Labour keeps on dumping candidates on constituencies, and it will hold them back; it is an insult to the constituents.

EDIT:

Just read that Johnson is off to Ukraine again. Obviously expecting a better reception than in Doncaster, where he was due to meet the Northern Research Group of Conservative MPs just days before the Wakefield by-election. However, it was definitely not a snub. It must be pretty busy at Kyiv airport - I think Macron, Scholz and others were there earlier in the week. Maybe they think that Johnson the Statesman will play better than Johnson the Leveller-Up in the by-elections.

Pure self preservation Boris...the "statesman ", the great "orator " and, a typical Boris "promise "....not mentioned, naturally, was the not so little matter of the logistics involved, 10000 men over 120 days ??....and where, when, and by whom ?

Ukraine war: Boris Johnson travels to Kyiv to meet Volodymyr Zelensky

The PM announces training for Ukraine forces after he pulls out of a conference in Doncaster to visit Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[jon0844]

Personally I'm pretty pessimistic about the next election. This government has been one of the worst in my lifetime and yet it hasn't really suffered the drop in support you might expect. If Labour can only just about muster tepid poll leads, I think they're going to struggle.

They've done a great job into making politics so personal and divisive that if you voted for anyone else, you must hate the country, be a communist, love illegal immigrants etc etc.

Populism is so dangerous and you can look at the USA to see how bad it is, and Boris has very much tried the same tactics here and clearly been successful. But all good things come to an end.

 

[takno]

Pure self preservation Boris...the "statesman ", the great "orator " and, a typical Boris "promise "....not mentioned, naturally, was the not so little matter of the logistics involved, 10000 men over 120 days ??....and where, when, and by whom ?

Ukraine war: Boris Johnson travels to Kyiv to meet Volodymyr Zelensky

The PM announces training for Ukraine forces after he pulls out of a conference in Doncaster to visit Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

Zelensky is doing the Ukrainian cause no favours with his feverish enthusiasm for Boris, and possibly-justified but frankly rude disdain for people he should be attempting to talk around like the Germans. At the end of the day he isn't getting any more hardware or money than he was already getting, and he's diminishing his cause with the ever-growing ranks of people who want Boris gone. He's at risk of losing a key allied nation and ending up with an unwelcome perennial house-guest.

 

[D6130]

Whittaker’s reduced majority in 2017 was largely down to Rob Holden (disaffected former Tory I believe, arrested this week in Cape Verde having failed to turn up for court to face 60+ charges including voyeurism) standing as an independent and taking just over a thousand votes off him.

He’s a dreadful human being and a pretty ineffective MP, unless you live in the lower valley

Fully agree. His main power base seems to be in Ripponden, Rishworth, Barkisland, Brighouse and Rastrick. I believe that he lives in the latter village, although he used to be a parish councillor in Heptonstall.

 

[windingroad]

They've done a great job into making politics so personal and divisive that if you voted for anyone else, you must hate the country, be a communist, love illegal immigrants etc etc.

My criticism of Labour right now is that I feel like they have accepted this premise, which strongly puts me off voting for them. I want a real alternative.

 

[D6130]

It must be pretty busy at Kyiv airport - I think Macron, Scholz and others were there earlier in the week.

I believe that they travelled to Kyiv by train. Considerably safer than dodging incoming Russian missiles, I would have thought.

 

[edwin_m]

Pure self preservation Boris...the "statesman ", the great "orator " and, a typical Boris "promise "....not mentioned, naturally, was the not so little matter of the logistics involved, 10000 men over 120 days ??....and where, when, and by whom ?

Ukraine war: Boris Johnson travels to Kyiv to meet Volodymyr Zelensky

The PM announces training for Ukraine forces after he pulls out of a conference in Doncaster to visit Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

I note also that by doing this he managed to avoid a levelling up meeting, something that might have been a tad awkward now the wheels are coming off that project (if it ever had any). He has form for doing this - remember how he put British forces in harm's way by visiting Afghanistan to avoid the vote on the Heathrow third runway?

 

[jon0844]

Ukraine is the new fridge for Boris.

 

[Lost property]

I note also that by doing this he managed to avoid a levelling up meeting, something that might have been a tad awkward now the wheels are coming off that project (if it ever had any). He has form for doing this - remember how he put British forces in harm's way by visiting Afghanistan to avoid the vote on the Heathrow third runway?

Ah, but, who better to replace him than Gove, not in person however...which was a blessing for them really.

That said, as seen on the news last night...the personification of elegance, bearing, gravitas....Boris shuffling around like a space hopper to give Zelensky a book about...the Queen, followed rapidly by him, almost literally, falling over himself to shake hands with somebody else.

 

[Typhoon]

The following appears on the BBC website (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61847902?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA)

Boris Johnson's former ethics adviser has said he resigned from his role this week over the government's "openness" to breaking international law.

In a second letter outlining why he had quit, Lord Geidt said reports it was related to steel tariffs were a "distraction".

"I could not be a party to advising on any potential law-breaking," he said.

Lord Geidt was the second ethics adviser to quit under Mr Johnson, after Sir Alex Allan left in 2020.

He left his role on Wednesday, accusing the prime minister of putting him in an "impossible and odious position" over an issue he believed would amount to a breach of the ministerial code - the rules about standards in government.

In a letter seen by BBC News on Friday evening, he elaborated on why he quit.

Lord Geidt told the chairman of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Conservative MP William Wragg, there had been "confusion about the precise cause of my decision".

He said his concern expressed in his letter to the PM was "simply one example of what might yet constitute deliberate breaches by the United Kingdom of its obligations under international law".

In his letter, Lord Geidt added that former Cabinet Secretary Lord Butler had represented his position "precisely" when he said, in a BBC interview on Thursday, that he had believed he should not "be asked to give advanced cover to the prime minister where there is contemplation of doing something that may be in breach of international law".

"My letter has been interpreted to suggest that an important issue of principle was limited to some narrow and technical consideration of steel tariffs," Lord Geidt wrote.

"The cautious language of my letter may have failed adequately to explain the far wider scope of my objection."

In his original resignation letter, Lord Geidt said he had come close to quitting over breaches of Covid lockdown rules in Downing Street.

But he said he ultimately stood down after had been asked for advice this week on another issue he believed would amount to a deliberate breach of the code.

(My emphasis)

At least Geidt has found an outlet, in Wragg, who, at least, appears to be willing to identify potential malpractice even to the detriment of his own party, in the short term.
Het has got out before the inevitable happened and Johnson claimed it was alright to break bend international law in a specific and limited way because he thought that is what his ethics advisor told him he could do. I suspect the list of those who would consider the job may have got rather shorter as a result of this disclosure.


Those with subscriptions to the FT might find this interesting too https://www.ft.com/content/16f27adf-09b1-4246-90cc-e32256ecae31

 

[SteveM70]

Fully agree. His main power base seems to be in Ripponden, Rishworth, Barkisland, Brighouse and Rastrick. I believe that he lives in the latter village, although he used to be a parish councillor in Heptonstall.

Correct on both counts. He used to live directly across the road from me in Heptonstall in the mid to late 90s. He was a nice bloke then

 

[Shrop]

Electoral Calculus currently has Altrincham and Sale West as position 323 in the order of Conservative safest seats - position 1 being the safest seat, Castle Point & Clacton both near the top - and currently predicts seats from rank 239 (Daniel Kawcynski in Shrewsbury, how I wish he loses his seat!) to fall, so Graham Brady certainly has a good chance of losing his seat. Sadly Tatton (my constituency) is "safe" albeit a surprisingly low rank of 213 on the current list - it's usually been around 100.

Yes, we suffer Daniel Kawcynski in Shropshire, its so annoying when the Tories put candidates into safe seats when they know little and care even less about their constituencies, just because part of the electorate really would vote for a pig so long as it wore blue rosette.
The enlightened people of Shropshire recognise that DK spends so much time with his Saudi and other involvements, that it's impossible for his focus to be truly in the constituency that blindly voted for him. And sadly, similar is true of many other Tory seats. Its for this reason that I keep suggesting that our voting system needs wholesale reform, although this suggestion doesn't seem to provoke much response...

 

[Typhoon]

Yes, we suffer Daniel Kawcynski in Shropshire, its so annoying when the Tories put candidates into safe seats when they know little and care even less about their constituencies, just because part of the electorate really would vote for a pig so long as it wore blue rosette.
The enlightened people of Shropshire recognise that DK spends so much time with his Saudi and other involvements, that it's impossible for his focus to be truly in the constituency that blindly voted for him. And sadly, similar is true of many other Tory seats. Its for this reason that I keep suggesting that our voting system needs wholesale reform, although this suggestion doesn't seem to provoke much response...

I am sorry that you have to endure the Member for Shrewsbury and Riyadh, but his presence is a reminder to those on the government benches (where, I understand, he is not universally liked) of how objectionable some on the right can be.

Regarding your last sentence, I suspect that while many (most?) want change, we are not going to agree on what the change is. As the only change our prime minister is likely to want is one that gives him more power and be less subject to scrutiny maybe this isn't the place. Also, I suspect that the Conservatives would use it as a scare tactic in a general election ('vote Labour/LibDem/Green/Monster-Raving-Loony and you will get chaos/Corbyn/the EU/Sturgeon/Sinn Fein') if it was ever in Labour's manifesto.

 

[Lost property]

I am sorry that you have to endure the Member for Shrewsbury and Riyadh, but his presence is a reminder to those on the government benches (where, I understand, he is not universally liked) of how objectionable some on the right can be.

Regarding your last sentence, I suspect that while many (most?) want change, we are not going to agree on what the change is. As the only change our prime minister is likely to want is one that gives him more power and be less subject to scrutiny maybe this isn't the place. Also, I suspect that the Conservatives would use it as a scare tactic in a general election ('vote Labour/LibDem/Green/Monster-Raving-Loony and you will get chaos/Corbyn/the EU/Sturgeon/Sinn Fein') if it was ever in Labour's manifesto.

Well yes, the Honourable Member, always like that term as a definition when you consider the Victorian erotica context, does seem intent on leaving Parliament at the next GE...the lament about school fees surely touched the hearts of many in his constituency for example.

That said, this could be interesting...what's the penalty for perjury again ?...alternatively. there's more than one way to get rid...which is quite a subtle means really....

Boris Johnson may have to give evidence under oath about whether he lied to MPs

Privileges committee investigating whether PM misled parliament when he said ‘no Covid rules were broken’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Shrop]

I am sorry that you have to endure the Member for Shrewsbury and Riyadh, but his presence is a reminder to those on the government benches (where, I understand, he is not universally liked) of how objectionable some on the right can be.

Regarding your last sentence, I suspect that while many (most?) want change, we are not going to agree on what the change is. As the only change our prime minister is likely to want is one that gives him more power and be less subject to scrutiny maybe this isn't the place. Also, I suspect that the Conservatives would use it as a scare tactic in a general election ('vote Labour/LibDem/Green/Monster-Raving-Loony and you will get chaos/Corbyn/the EU/Sturgeon/Sinn Fein') if it was ever in Labour's manifesto.

I don't pretend to know exactly how change should happen, but I'm completely convinced that it needs to in some way, not least so that MPs become more constituency focused. Our new North Shropshire MP already has much local respect for focusing far more on local priorities than did the Tory she replaced. She's also a lot more focused than the candidate the Tories put up to replace him, who lived a long way outside the constituency, they were just so complacent they assumed their vote was safe.
There is also the debacle of PMQs and many other TV interviews, where the focus is 90% negative, on rubbishing other Parties, rather than on taking good ideas and developing them in a positive way. It's insulting to the public, most of whom would soon work out what they like about MPs and their contributions, they don't want to always be listening to the poor quality comedy show that Parliament so often is.
As for the "Member for Shrewsbury and Riyadh", well done for making me regret having a mouthful of coffee when I read that!

 

[Typhoon]

I don't pretend to know exactly how change should happen, but I'm completely convinced that it needs to in some way, not least so that MPs become more constituency focused. Our new North Shropshire MP already has much local respect for focusing far more on local priorities than did the Tory she replaced. She's also a lot more focused than the candidate the Tories put up to replace him, who lived a long way outside the constituency, they were just so complacent they assumed their vote was safe.
There is also the debacle of PMQs and many other TV interviews, where the focus is 90% negative, on rubbishing other Parties, rather than on taking good ideas and developing them in a positive way. It's insulting to the public, most of whom would soon work out what they like about MPs and their contributions, they don't want to always be listening to the poor quality comedy show that Parliament so often is.
As for the "Member for Shrewsbury and Riyadh", well done for making me regret having a mouthful of coffee when I read that!

Oh, I couldn't agree more.

Whenever the voting system comes up, all I ever seem to hear is PR; my experience of that is I was represented by no-one in the European parliament.
I will not vote for a candidate I have a problem with (eg objectionable views/ actions, useless, inactive/ unsupportive in the constituency) no matter what party they represent. I want as my MP someone who will work in my interest, whether as an individual or as a community, even if it is at the expense of losing favour with the whips. If I can't call on my MP for assistance, who can I call upon? I have been fortunate that I have only had three MPs who have turned out to be a waste of space and I have never voted for them more than once. Above all, as far as I can remember, they have all lived in or near the constituency (even if not during the week) - the MP must understand the constituency, not be parachuted in 5 minutes before hand.
What parties need to remember whether it be Conservative, Labour, LibDem or SNP is that, particularly in the current climate, with people struggling, voter loyalty counts for nothing. It is no good saying 'we hear you' when you appear to have your fingers in your ears, or politicians rolling out the same trite answers because they don't have the skill or empathy to put together something meaningful. I would rather hear the realistic, if difficult, truth than the fanciful, if easy, lie because the lie will come out sooner or later. I agree with the statement about negativity - probably happens because it is so much easier than being positive (witness PMQs). Hopefully we, the voters, are tiring of it; once we discover that the sky doesn't fall in if we vote differently (it doesn't, I've tried it), hopefully politicians will have to up their game if we discover there is an alternative.

I am pleased that the new MP is focused; her future depends on doing a good job, I just hope that the constituency supports her when the time comes.