Weather disruption Sunday 17th July and following few days

[Mikw]

I'm just outside Sheffield and the BBC forecast is predicting it will be 41c on Monday. Meanwhile the more reliable Met Office is predicting it will be 6 degrees lower at 35c; still very hot but hardly unbearable. Anybody would think the BBC were pushing a climate change agenda.....

There's no agenda i can assure you, and the BBC subcontract the weather anyway. The Met office is now forecasting 38 for Sheffield on Tuesday by the way.

 

[Horizon22]

I'm just outside Sheffield and the BBC forecast is predicting it will be 41c on Monday. Meanwhile the more reliable Met Office is predicting it will be 6 degrees lower at 35c; still very hot but hardly unbearable. Anybody would think the BBC were pushing a climate change agenda.....

Really - they got storm Arwen pretty much spot on and people on the forums were going on about the railway overreacting too before it actually happened and the entire network had to shut down because there were over 100 live obstuctions on the track at any given time.

Like how Arwen wasn't "just a bit of a rain". This isn't "just a bit of heat" - the chance of breaking the all time UK temperature record is very real, and we've not had suistained temperature (when railway is operating normally, July 2020 was very warm) in a relatively widespread area for a couple of decades. Tracks WILL buckle, overhead line equipment WILL sag and you can put all the mitigations in the world in place, but sometimes as humans our built infrastructure simply cannot beat the weather (and in fact we're taking actions to actively make the weather worse/more extreme/more unpredictable). Once again, people have been fairly warned about it. Hence the "Customers are advised to only travel if absolutely necessary". The railway can't protect against people who see their journey as wrongly "neccessary", but it at least makes people think about it.

And with the red alert this will affect many areas of the country, not just rail transport.

 

[Trackman]

Indeed! You select a town on the Met Office website but it only forecasts large areas, so you'll get the same forecast in one place as another potentially 70 miles away

Well, I disagree on the app anyway, it you select a different town - say a few miles away (well 5 miles away as I've just tried) it will give you a different forecast.

35°c isn't unbearable, ....

It's not that what bothers me, plenty of water, breaks etc.. it's the nights that worry me, I need a good nights kip. I've slept (well tried) in extreme heat, it's not nice.

 

[800001]

Can anyone confirm what the likely situation is for Newcastle - Edinburgh on Monday and Tuesday please?

Monday 1/2 hourly service but obviously with delays.

Tuesday should be pretty similar. Although from mid morning it will become an Edinburgh to York service, unsure of timings etc as speed restriction may cover all route.

 

[6Gman]

I'm just outside Sheffield and the BBC forecast is predicting it will be 41c on Monday. Meanwhile the more reliable Met Office is predicting it will be 6 degrees lower at 35c; still very hot but hardly unbearable. Anybody would think the BBC were pushing a climate change agenda.....

Or employ a crap less effective forecaster ?

 

[Horizon22]

Or employ a crap less effective forecaster.

As an aside, the railway uses MetDesk. Their max appears to be 41C on Tuesday in Lincolnshire.

 

[Andyh82]

LNER’s advice has updated

Heatwave travel advice
On Monday 18 July, only travel if necessary. On Tuesday 19 July, do not travel between London King's Cross and south of York & Leeds. No trains will run, this includes Wakefield Westgate, Doncaster, Retford, Lincoln, Newark Northgate, Grantham, Peterborough, and Stevenage, and only travel if necessary to other destinations.

Travelling with LNER

The latest LNER travel information - train times, live travel alerts, cheap rail tickets, routes & prices.

www.lner.co.uk

 

[Starmill]

Or employ a crap less effective forecaster ?

They moved to a cheaper one a few years ago. They used to use Met Office!

 

[Desirolly]

GWR seem to not be amending their timetable? I have some family using the 0904 PAD to Newquay, so I’m hoping they’ll be able to escape the worst of the heat.
I do wonder if they will thin some services prior to Monday though.

 

[55002]

Here’s one of the models

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/1548383798420590594

 

[ModernRailways]

LNER’s advice has updated

Heatwave travel advice
On Monday 18 July, only travel if necessary. On Tuesday 19 July, do not travel between London King's Cross and south of York & Leeds. No trains will run, this includes Wakefield Westgate, Doncaster, Retford, Lincoln, Newark Northgate, Grantham, Peterborough, and Stevenage, and only travel if necessary to other destinations.

Travelling with LNER

The latest LNER travel information - train times, live travel alerts, cheap rail tickets, routes & prices.

www.lner.co.uk

Worth noting, LNER on Twitter are saying that an industry wide message was just updated at around 23:00 so other TOCs will likely follow?

Looks like all lines closed/partial closure of the ECML
Lumo (TPE Control) updated at around 21:00 that there will be no services to/from London with trains starting/terminating at Newcastle.
Hull Trains (also TPE Control) have updated and Monday morning will operate to / from London but looks to only be one train in either direction.

Lumo JourneyCheck - Train times and live real time delay/cancellation/disruption information.

Lumo JourneyCheck provides real time, up-to-date train times and train disruption information keeping you informed about any delays or cancellations on the network and helping you know what to do when your journey is affected. Train Cancellations, Delays, Alterations and Engineering Work...

www.journeycheck.com

JourneyCheck - Train times and live real time delay/cancellation/disruption information.

JourneyCheck provides real time, up-to-date train times and train disruption information keeping you informed about any delays or cancellations on the network and helping you know what to do when your journey is affected. Train Cancellations, Delays, Alterations and Engineering Work information...

www.journeycheck.com

Great Northern, as I type, have updated to say Tuesday there are no trains from Kings Cross/Moorgate

 

[142blue]

I think it's more prudent to be safe and stop trains on Tuesday..imagine being stuck on one, no power, air con failed, no windows

Not a chance

 

[jon0844]

There's another fire this morning, near Redhill, and it's not even that hot yet.

Having seen Mark Dolan telling his viewer on GB News yesterday that this heat is nothing special, that the left-wing woke communist BBC and MSM are merely trying to lock us down like they did during Covid, and that everyone should go out and enjoy the heat, I do wonder what tomorrow and Tuesday will be like because there are clearly going to be a lot of people ignoring advice.

Most people will hopefully take precautions, but how many idiots are actually going to listen to the likes of GB News and the newspapers saying how it's the best weather ever, and try and pile on down to the beaches to get cooked alive? It doesn't help that tomorrow morning, like today, people will wake up to a pretty fresh breeze and think 'doesn't seem too bad'. Perhaps after they couldn't sleep on Monday night, they'll be more sensible come Tuesday.

The number of cancellations tomorrow does mean it will be more akin to the last strike day, and that's potentially going to lead to some disastrous situations if anything happens on the infrastructure that causes power to be lost - and hundreds of people are stranded on non air conditioned trains in 40+ degree heat.

But, hey, they manage abroad apparently! Everyone in hot countries copes no problem and everyone goes out as normal.. Dunkirk spirit and all that.

Perhaps wrap yourself in a union flag!!

 

[AndrewE]

There's another fire this morning, near Redhill, and it's not even that hot yet.

One N of Stafford too.

A fire next to the track between Stafford and Crewe / Stoke-on-Trent is causing disruption to journeys between these stations. As a result, trains may be cancelled, delayed by up to 15 minutes or diverted via Alsager.
Stafford, Macclesfield and Stoke-on-Trent will not be served.

 

[357]

Are there confirmed speeds that will be imposed for any regions yet?

 

[Andy Pacer]

GWR seem to not be amending their timetable? I have some family using the 0904 PAD to Newquay, so I’m hoping they’ll be able to escape the worst of the heat.
I do wonder if they will thin some services prior to Monday though.

Yes, seems they're just predicting delays

Heatwave travel update

www.gwr.com

 

[martin2345uk]

Are TFL/Tube services expected to be running as normal tomorrow and Tuesday?

Tuesday I will have to get back to Pitsea on the c2c network, from Stonebridge Park on the Bakerloo...

 

[dk1]

Yes looks as if no East Coast services south of Leeds/York now on Tuesday.

Another large possibility is should cab air-con not be able to cope then drivers will be refusing to take trains with them then stranded where they are until being moved out of the way where that’s possible.

126 cancellations across Greater Anglia tomorrow although this still provides at least an hourly service on most routes.

 

[MP393]

Manchester - Hadfield & Glossop services will be diesel hauled today, tommorow & Tuesday due to issues with the OHL Sagging and Tripping. All services 4 vice 3 as a result, with 150141 & 150123 working one diagram and 150136 & 150143 working the other today

 

[dk1]

As LNER have said no services will run York-Kings Cross on Tuesday a woman on Twitter has asked if trains will run non-stop Darlington to Kings Cross instead. Give me strength!!!

 

[800001]

As LNER have said no services will run York-Kings Cross on Tuesday a woman on Twitter has asked if trains will run non-stop Darlington to Kings Cross instead. Give me strength!!!

When you read twitter it certainly shows the arrogance and self importance of people.

 

[dk1]

When you read twitter it certainly shows the arrogance and self importance of people.

I could think of another word for them

 

[kristiang85]

If anybody wants to look at the weather models online, you can find GFS here: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/to...ar=5&run=0&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As LNER have said no services will run York-Kings Cross on Tuesday a woman on Twitter has asked if trains will run non-stop Darlington to Kings Cross instead. Give me strength!!!

If she has to do that journey, it should be possible on TPE and Avanti via Manchester into Euston.
Or fly from Newcastle.

 

[dk1]

If she has to do that journey, it should be possible on TPE and Avanti via Manchester into Euston.
Or fly from Newcastle.

Nice little ride across the Pennines. Will be dreadfully slow though at 60mph throughout unless leaving very early doors.

 

[Pinus contorta]

Manchester - Hadfield & Glossop services will be diesel hauled today, tommorow & Tuesday due to issues with the OHL Sagging and Tripping. All services 4 vice 3 as a result, with 150141 & 150123 working one diagram and 150136 & 150143 working the other today

Is this solely because it is the portal frame OLE that was re-used in the 1980's refit from 1500 DC ? Or some other reason I wonder?

 

[VideozVideoz]

And 80x overheating

I'd not plan a journey on the Marston Vale either...

I just did that line on Friday and it was bad enough then

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What is the reasoning behind the closure of the ECML between Peterborough and York during the Red weather alert, while the WCML still appears to be operating, if with a reduced service?
Both routes run through the Red area for a similar length (London-York/Preston).
Is there something about the infrastructure or train fleet that makes the Avanti timetable workable but the LNER one not?
Do freight requirements come into it (with the WCML being more critical than the ECML in this regard)?
Or has Avanti not announced its detailed plan yet?

 

[800001]

What is the reasoning behind the closure of the ECML between Peterborough and York during the Red weather alert, while the WCML still appears to be operating, if with a reduced service?
Both routes run through the Red area for a similar length (London-York/Preston).
Is there something about the infrastructure or train fleet that makes the Avanti timetable workable but the LNER one not?
Do freight requirements come into it (with the WCML being more critical than the ECML in this regard)?
Or has Avanti not announced its detailed plan yet?

Nothing to do with the fleet, it is ultimately Network Rail who decide.

I presume by the latest weather model, that the temp on the Ecml will be hotter than wcml.

 

[Busaholic]

Spare a thought for Plymouth. 23 degrees forecast on Tuesday....heatwave, what heatwave.....?

It was 26 degrees at Tavistock at 9.30 this morning: this area is apparently getting the heat earlier than some other places and may be losing it sooner.