The end is nigh for the Southern service to Milton Keynes, but what does this mean for the future of the south WCML and West London Line?

[PTR 444]

I must have been living under a rock for the past 2 years as I have only just discovered that Southern have heavily cut back their East Croydon - Milton Keynes service, now only a mere shuttle between Clapham Junction and Watford Junction with a handful of extensions per day to Selhurst and Hemel Hempstead. I'm not sure whether this cutback was planned for a while or whether it was brought about as a direct consequence of COVID-19, but IMO cutting a route which specifically avoids Central London is a bit short-sighted considering those types of journeys are more likely to cater to the leisure market which has more-or-less recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Besides, I'm pretty sure there was an ambition not that long ago to increase this service to 2tph once capacity on the south WCML was freed up by the opening of HS2.

So with several posters doubting that this service will ever come back*, what could this mean for the path it leaves behind? Could we see an additional LNWR service to replace its calling pattern north of Watford Junction? Could the remaining Watford - Clapham Junction rump transfer to London Overground now that it operates wholly on their infrastructure? Could the post-HS2 WCML proposed service patterns be modified? I'll leave any speculation up to you.

*Never say never. Personally I think it will be reinstated post-HS2

 

[Bletchleyite]

LNR is having a full recast in December. The plan is:

2tph Euston-(Watford 1tph)-Leighton-Bletchley-MKC-Wolverton-Northampton-semifast to Brum.
1tph Euston-MKC-Trent Valley-Crewe
2tph Euston-Tring semifast
2tph Euston-MKC Harrow-Bushey-Watford-all stations to MKC

plus a few peak extras.

 

[PTR 444]

LNR is having a full recast in December. The plan is:

2tph Euston-(Watford 1tph)-Leighton-Bletchley-MKC-Wolverton-Northampton
1tph Euston-MKC-Trent Valley-Crewe
2tph Euston-Tring semifast
2tph Euston-MKC Harrow-Bushey-Watford-all stations to MKC

plus a few peak extras.

So no trains between Northampton and Birmingham?

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Given there's a need to provide a level of Metro service between, say, Croydon and Clapham Junction, I would have thought a winning solution would have been a half-hourly West Croydon - Clapham Junction - Kensington - Watford Junction, not least because the capacity needed between West Croydon and Clapham via intermediate stations would not be as high, and you'd still be supplying a half-hourly service from Epsom Downs and a half-hourly service from the East Croydon direction along the Selhurst stopping corridor.

I know I can dream, but the fact it isn't half-hourly is part of the reason it was never as successful as it should have been. And could be.

Obviously, something like Three Bridges or Gatwick - Milton Keynes with limited stops would be *stunning*. Find a way to just ease them across the Balham crossovers in parallel every 30 minutes and we would have a totally different balance of passenger usage in the area.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So no trains between Northampton and Birmingham?

I'm an idiot, the Northampton continues to Brum semifast. Will correct.

 

[PTR 444]

I'm an idiot, the Northampton continues to Brum semifast. Will correct.

Thanks for updating. Is this upcoming recast the reason why Southern’s Milton Keynes service has been cut back to Watford Junction?

 

[swt_passenger]

Could the remaining Watford - Clapham Junction rump transfer to London Overground now that it operates wholly on their infrastructure? Could the post-HS2 WCML proposed service patterns be modified? I'll leave any speculation up to you.

It doesn’t actually operate wholly on LO infrastructure, it uses a different route north of Mitre Bridge junction to eventually join the WCML slows at Wembley, LO use the completely separate DC lines.. It’s arguable that the WLL isn’t truly LO infrastructure anyway. LO are definitely the majority user, but that’s not usually a reason to exclude other traffic.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thanks for updating. Is this upcoming recast the reason why Southern’s Milton Keynes service has been cut back to Watford Junction?

No, the reason was that Southern wanted (well, DaFT did) to withdraw the 455s without replacement.

 

[Jturner98]

Thanks for updating. Is this upcoming recast the reason why Southern’s Milton Keynes service has been cut back to Watford Junction?

I’d imagine it’s more to do with the fact that the 377 fleet is stretched a lot more than it was a few months back due to the 455 withdrawal. Cutting the service frees up a handful of 377s. (That’s when the service is actually running. I’ve seen quite a few 377/2 units on Epsom Downs services lately. Also yesterday quite a few Southern services to Watford were cancelled).

 

[JonathanH]

Cutting the service frees up a handful of 377s.

Bit more than a handful as it was also proved possible to cut the formation from 8-car to 4-car.

 

[cactustwirly]

LNR is having a full recast in December. The plan is:

2tph Euston-(Watford 1tph)-Leighton-Bletchley-MKC-Wolverton-Northampton-semifast to Brum.
1tph Euston-MKC-Trent Valley-Crewe
2tph Euston-Tring semifast
2tph Euston-MKC Harrow-Bushey-Watford-all stations to MKC

plus a few peak extras.

Why is the Tring Semifast, but the Milton Keynes is slow? Doesn't that force people onto the faster Avanti Services from MK?

 

[JonathanH]

Doesn't that force people onto the faster Avanti Services from MK?

No, they catch the Trent Valley and Northampton / Birmingham services if they want to use LNR. Bletchley and Leighton Buzzard have stops in the Northampton services as well.

It is more a matter of which services people at Berkhamsted and Hemel Hempstead use.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why is the Tring Semifast, but the Milton Keynes is slow?

Better connectivity. The only people whose journeys are slower are the thousands of passengers a day from the bustling metropolis of Cheddington.

Doesn't that force people onto the faster Avanti Services from MK?

No, they would use the Brums and Crewes as they do now.

 

[PTR 444]

Better connectivity. The only people whose journeys are slower are the thousands of passengers a day from the bustling metropolis of Cheddington.

Will both MK terminators per hour be calling at Cheddington? That would make up for the increase in journey time.

 

[Bald Rick]

Why is the Tring Semifast, but the Milton Keynes is slow? Doesn't that force people onto the faster Avanti Services from MK?

as well as better connectivity, it helps during disruption.

the current contingency plan for disruption south of MK sees the Tring stoppers pulled, with extra stops added into the semi fasts to compensate, delaying them (obviously), and making recovery difficult.

in future, the Trings will be pulled, but the MK stopper will not be delayed With extra stops, as it already makes them.

Never say never. Personally I think it will be reinstated post-HS2

can’t see it coming back. It was expensive to provide, and generated little in the way of incremental revenue North of Watford.

 

[RobShipway]

I know the paths have long since gone and the demand at the time was not there, but it is a shame that this service could not go back to what it was originally which is Brighton - Rugby train services.

If GWR replace their class 387 fleet with class 379 trains as people suspect, could that mean the East Croydon - Milton Keynes service return if the the class 387 fleet from GWR moves to Southern?

 

[Bald Rick]

If GWR replace their class 387 fleet with class 379 trains as people suspect, could that mean the East Croydon - Milton Keynes service return if the the class 387 fleet from GWR moves to Southern?

It‘s not coming back. It has ceased to be. Bereft of life it’s breathed it’s last. It is an ex service. Etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Will both MK terminators per hour be calling at Cheddington? That would make up for the increase in journey time.

Only one I think.

Bit more than a handful as it was also proved possible to cut the formation from 8-car to 4-car.

I don't think it has "proven possible" unless you like severe overcrowding and leaving people behind. It needs to and I suspect will go back to 8 if Southern get more units, though I would agree with those saying it is unlikely to go back to MK as that section was very poorly used.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Only one I think.

For a footfall of about 1 per train (off peak) - about right.

I recall screams of outrage at a local meeting when the 1 per hour call was promulgated pre 2004.

The meeting was held in the local church hall. Apart from self and the late Start Baker , not a single other passenger alighted from the off peak service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would actually call both, purely for a tidier timetable. Leighton and Bletchley will both be a couple of minutes off half hourly. Merseyrail could for instance easily justify going half hourly at the quieter stations, but other than Capenhurst it generally avoids it for simplicity.

The fasts will also be a bit off at many stations due to only one of the two calling at Watford, though I suspect it would be hard to path both to call on the fasts.

 

[PTR 444]

I would actually call both, purely for a tidier timetable. Leighton and Bletchley will both be a couple of minutes off half hourly. Merseyrail could for instance easily justify going half hourly at the quieter stations, but other than Capenhurst it generally avoids it for simplicity.

The fasts will also be a bit off at many stations due to only one of the two calling at Watford, though I suspect it would be hard to path both to call on the fasts.

I agree

Cheddington is one of those stations which has the misfortune of being located a mile from the village it serves. Tring is similar but has been able to reinvent itself as a “parkway” station, hence why it gets a much better service. If Cheddington could do the same then I could see much improved usage from its hinterland.

Alternatively, the station could be relocated south so it is closer to the village, and have the added benefit of serving Pitstone as well.

Or just build Cheddington Garden City…

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or just build Cheddington Garden City…

It is actually genuinely surprising nobody has thought to do a medium sized development in the fields around the station. Or is it protected green belt?

 

[Bald Rick]

Cheddington is one of those stations which has the misfortune of being located a mile from the village it serves.

only the furthest parts of the village are a mile away. The nearest parts are half that.
the issue is that fewer than 2000 people live there. Even if 10% of the village commuted by rail every day, that would only be 80k passenger trips a year.

It is actually genuinely surprising nobody has thought to do a medium sized development in the fields around the station. Or is it protected green belt?

just outside green belt, but most development in that district is concentrated in Aylesbury.

 

[Bletchleyite]

only the furthest parts of the village are a mile away. The nearest parts are half that.
the issue is that fewer than 2000 people live there. Even if 10% of the village commuted by rail every day, that would only be 80k passenger trips a year.

It is a bit of a parkway type station, but since the frequency dropped people use Tring instead. In some ways I am surprised it has survived.

 

[cle]

Tring gets a lot of patrons from the Amersham/Chesham side of things too. Cheddington is literally the middle of nowhere.

As for this path, I expect it could be split at Blectchley - the Bletchley-MKC path will be needed for Oxford directs. Whereas a Euston-Bletchley service might be added back one day if needed - there are platforms to turn them and it's a terminating spot in the peaks already.

 

[A S Leib]

Tring gets a lot of patrons from the Amersham/Chesham side of things too

Out of curiosity, do you know if they're mostly heading towards Milton Keynes / Birmingham or London? When Tring to Euston's £118 a week (£150 including parking) compared to a weekly cap of £100 from Zone 9 / £90 from Chalfont & Latimer to Zone 1, and with a more frequent and time-equivalent service, I wouldn't expect many to be driving from Amersham to Tring for London.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Out of curiosity, do you know if they're mostly heading towards Milton Keynes / Birmingham or London? When Tring to Euston's £118 a week (£150 including parking) compared to a weekly cap of £100 from Zone 9 / £90 from Chalfont & Latimer to Zone 1, and with a more frequent and time-equivalent service, I wouldn't expect many to be driving from Amersham to Tring for London.

I'm a bit surprised about Amersham. What you do get is people driving from Aylesbury, as Chiltern is slow and infrequent even if it's 4 quid cheaper for a weekly.

 

[cle]

Out of curiosity, do you know if they're mostly heading towards Milton Keynes / Birmingham or London? When Tring to Euston's £118 a week (£150 including parking) compared to a weekly cap of £100 from Zone 9 / £90 from Chalfont & Latimer to Zone 1, and with a more frequent and time-equivalent service, I wouldn't expect many to be driving from Amersham to Tring for London.

Like 95% to London - many people heading to MKC drive given the auto nature of it, free parking in abundance etc.
Birmingham from Tring/Berko? - negligible.

Note this is a lot more from Chesham than Amersham, which I think is a tiny piece. Chesham historically had a shuttle/infrequent service and is halfway to the WCML at Berko. Tring is more used by folks in the catchment closer to Aylesbury, with a far superior service.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Tring gets a lot of patrons from the Amersham/Chesham side of things too. Cheddington is literally the middle of nowhere.

As for this path, I expect it could be split at Blectchley - the Bletchley-MKC path will be needed for Oxford directs. Whereas a Euston-Bletchley service might be added back one day if needed - there are platforms to turn them and it's a terminating spot in the peaks already.

Isn't it less than ideal to be turning services at a (relatively) minor suburban stop just one stop short of a more significant destination? For example you wouldn't plan to turn services back at Dodworth, Outwood or Ardwick. Though there are presumably limits to how many services can terminate at MK per hour.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Isn't it less than ideal to be turning services at a (relatively) minor suburban stop just one stop short of a more significant destination? For example you wouldn't plan to turn services back at Dodworth, Outwood or Ardwick. Though there are presumably limits to how many services can terminate at MK per hour.

Er, Bedwyn? Possibly the most bizarre terminus in the UK (though travel habits have built up around driving to it).

It's more about paths than about MKC itself which has two reversal platforms (2 and currently-unused 2a - the latter is intended for EWR).