Despite the government's announcement, should HS2 be cancelled?

[Noddy]

What would be the cost of grade separating Colwich? Less than 5-7bn I bet.

It not just about cost is it though? We’ve seen from the WCML and GWML that upgrades lead to extended period of delays and disruption, not to mention they are typically descoped by the time they are ‘complete’. I still regularly drive past masts doing nothing between Swindon and Bath. By the time they come to put wires in they’ll probably end up ripping the existing masts out and starting again.

There is a serious amount of madness in the RailUK community when it comes to HS2. Yes it’s not perfect, but nothing is. It’s not an either or situation. It’s HS2 or nothing.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You'd end up with an Armitage-Norton Bridge line

You really wouldn't.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Nov 2022 ==

It’s HS2 or nothing.

It's really not, or not in the long term. This zealot-like view is part of the problem (see also the spectacularly and unnecessarily expensive Elizabeth Line).

 

[irish_rail]

It’s HS2 or nothing.

So its either spend countless billions on an already out of date project, or nothing? Or how about spend just a couple of billion on a few decent infrastructure enhancements and a decent fleet for XC. Maybe make some of GWRs 5 car 802s 9s and maybe improve commuter services into northern conurbations. All much cheaper and more desirable to the public than HS2.

 

[Noddy]

It's really not, or not in the long term. This zealot-like view is part of the problem (see also the spectacularly and unnecessarily expensive Elizabeth Line).

How exactly does cancelling HS2 improve the business case for

And you could 4-track the whole of Castlefield with the change, including buying some property in the way and demolishing it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Nov 2022 ==

So its either spend countless billions on an already out of date project, or nothing? Or how about spend just a couple of billion on a few decent infrastructure enhancements and a decent fleet for XC. Maybe make some of GWRs 5 car 802s 9s and maybe improve commuter services into northern conurbations. All much cheaper and more desirable to the public than HS2.

Again how exactly does cancelling HS2 improve the business case for doing these things?

 

[dosxuk]

But if you line it up with say, awarding public sector workers a pay rise, or building new capacity into the NHS, for politicians especially those ideologically opposed to HS2, "only £5-7bn" (plus the rest) soon starts to stack up politically. As I said above, there are going to be difficult decisions on the economy ahead, and many people will expect HS2 to face some kind of cuts along with everything else facing cuts.

Part of the problem is people thinking that massive new infrastructure funding comes from the same pot of money as pay rises for public sector workers - it simply doesn't. It's not a choice between giving the whole NHS a pay rise or building HS2. Infrastructure like HS2 will bring economic benefits for centuries - benefits that wouldn't exist without the infrastructure - as has been the case for railways, roads and telecoms throughout the past centuries - and it's cost can be funded from those expected benefits.

If there's no demand for connectivity between London and the Midlands, maybe we should dig up the M1 and turn it into the biggest linear park in the world - would be good for our green credentials at least?

 

[thomalex]

If HS2 is cancelled or significantly reduced in scope now, this will fuel resentment in the North of England, who will see the newly opened Elizabeth Line and wonder why they can't have something similar.

Given that HS2 seems to now only be going to Birmingham many don't even see this project as even involving the north of England.

The real game changer for the north would be HS3 of course linking up the major northern cities east to west but that's already been scrapped.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So its either spend countless billions on an already out of date project, or nothing? Or how about spend just a couple of billion on a few decent infrastructure enhancements and a decent fleet for XC. Maybe make some of GWRs 5 car 802s 9s and maybe improve commuter services into northern conurbations. All much cheaper and more desirable to the public than HS2.

One thing that's big-changed recently is the ability for business travellers to remote work. Thus, a slower train with big tables and reliable wifi/5G coverage (get some masts in all along the WCML, say) is of more value than a faster one with a cramped seating layout.

I note that Avanti's 805s that have been seen so far seem to have a lots-of-tables layout in Standard quite unlike that of other 80x. I think someone has noticed - odd that it's FirstGroup!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Nov 2022 ==

Part of the problem is people thinking that massive new infrastructure funding comes from the same pot of money as pay rises for public sector workers - it simply doesn't. It's not a choice between giving the whole NHS a pay rise or building HS2.

It's not, but it can be a choice between building one piece of infrastructure and building others.

 

[Trainbike46]

People who don't like it or don't care will still complain if its cancelled and use it as an example of the north being treated badly. They won't believe another project will happen 10 years down the line.

Exactly.

I know someone from Leeds who was opposed to the Leeds branch of HS2.

Then, when the Leeds branch was cancelled this, to her, was evidence that the government was out to hurt both the north in general and the northeast and Leeds in particular. I suspect there will be many people like her who will be unhappy no matter whether HS2 gets build or cancelled

 

[Xavi]

Expenditure on infrastructure simply can't be compared with ongoing expenditure on salaries/the NHS. It's also not the case that £5-7bn is spent in one go - it is spread over several years. So really what we are talking about is perhaps £1bn a year for a couple of years. When divided across the 5.74m public sector workers, this would mean a £174 a year payrise - but only for a few years, after which the funding for the continuing higher salaries would need to be found elsewhere.

Indeed, the £5-7bn will be spread over 10 years. Doesn’t touch the surface of annual NHS budget which is £608bn for 2022/23. This is the perspective that the writers and anti-HS2 / infrastructure crowd ignore.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Then, when the Leeds branch was cancelled this, to her, was evidence that the government was out to hurt both the north in general and the northeast and Leeds in particular. I suspect there will be many people like her who will be unhappy no matter whether HS2 gets build or cancelled

There are some people who are unhappy regardless of what happens. They aren't exclusive to the North, but Liverpool (from which I hail, before anyone says) seems to have a disproportionate number of them. Leeds no doubt has some too. As does Milton Keynes - many were found whining about the considerable upgrade in south WCML commuter services off the back of the PUG1/VHF upgrades in the mid 2000s because it meant they couldn't have the prestige of going to work on a (seriously overcrowded) Virgin train and had to have a seat on a (then) Silverlink one instead.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Nov 2022 ==

Indeed, the £5-7bn will be spread over 10 years. Doesn’t touch the surface of annual NHS budget which is £608bn for 2022/23. This is the perspective that the writers and anti-HS2 / infrastructure crowd ignore.

It is also important to note that the "black hole" isn't that the Government has an overdraft which is being called in and needs paying off now. What it actually is (and why the actual sum is debatable) is the difference between expenditure, including capex, and the amount the Government thinks it can reasonably borrow without the interest rates getting silly.

Thus HS2 IS relevant.

It's scary just how much 50bn is. The NHS budget is huge, but most other budgets are not.

 

[Xavi]

It not just about cost is it though? We’ve seen from the WCML and GWML that upgrades lead to extended period of delays and disruption, not to mention they are typically descoped by the time they are ‘complete’. I still regularly drive past masts doing nothing between Swindon and Bath. By the time they come to put wires in they’ll probably end up ripping the existing masts out and starting again.

There is a serious amount of madness in the RailUK community when it comes to HS2. Yes it’s not perfect, but nothing is. It’s not an either or situation. It’s HS2 or nothing.

2a has little to do with Colwich junction, the Shrewsbury / Stafford - Wolverhampton - Birmingham - Coventry / Leicester route is the biggest winner.

 

[Bletchleyite]

2a has little to do with Colwich junction, the Shrewsbury / Stafford - Wolverhampton - Birmingham - Coventry / Leicester route is the biggest winner.

How does 2A have any effect on that bar a short section of Stafford-Wolves? It basically just relieves the Trent Valley.

1 relieves Brum-Cov (by one train per hour).

 

[stuu]

Indeed, the £5-7bn will be spread over 10 years. Doesn’t touch the surface of annual NHS budget which is £608bn for 2022/23. This is the perspective that the writers and anti-HS2 / infrastructure crowd ignore.

It isn't, NHS England's budget is £152bn. But your main point is correct, it's a trivial proportion of total government expenditure

 

[Mikey C]

It is also important to note that the "black hole" isn't that the Government has an overdraft which is being called in and needs paying off now. What it actually is (and why the actual sum is debatable) is the difference between expenditure, including capex, and the amount the Government thinks it can reasonably borrow without the interest rates getting silly.

Thus HS2 IS relevant.

It's scary just how much 50bn is. The NHS budget is huge, but most other budgets are not.

But the Capex on HS2 isn't being spent up front, it's phased over a long period of time, thus cancelling HS2 would save the government a pittance in each year.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It isn't, NHS England's budget is £152bn. But your main point is correct, it's a trivial proportion of total government expenditure

It's nothing of the sort. It would for example represent 10% of the education budget or about 20% of the whole transport budget.

Health and social care is a huge proportion of public spending. It's not the one to compare against.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Nov 2022 ==

But the Capex on HS2 isn't being spent up front, it's phased over a long period of time, thus cancelling HS2 would save the government a pittance in each year.

Once again:

It is also important to note that the "black hole" isn't that the Government has an overdraft which is being called in and needs paying off now. What it actually is (and why the actual sum is debatable) is the difference between expenditure, including capex, and the amount the Government thinks it can reasonably borrow without the interest rates getting silly.

Thus, HS2 *does* impact the "black hole" because it impacts public borrowing. The "black hole" has occured because the Truss-Kwarteng budget damaged the UK's reputation on the markets and as such massively upped the cost of Government borrowing.

 

[Xavi]

Government thinks it can reasonably borrow

Governments do not borrow money, they create it. Note how £65bn was found in an instance to bail out pension funds a month or so ago. Gilts are investors choosing to invest existing money in a government savings account and anyone can do the same. Think of it this way, we don’t call our savings at a bank borrowing.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Governments do not borrow money, they create it. Note how £65bn was found in an instance to bail out pension funds a month or so ago. Gilts are investors choosing to invest existing money in a government savings account and anyone can do the same. Think of it this way, we don’t call our savings at a bank borrowing.

Please go and do some background reading on Government borrowing and how money markets work (and why what Truss and Kwarteng did was such a problem), and in particular why just printing money isn't always a solution, this is rather ill-informed but I don't think it's in the scope of this thread to provide a full rundown of it.

 

[Xavi]

But the Capex on HS2 isn't being spent up front, it's phased over a long period of time, thus cancelling HS2 would save the government a pittance in each year.

Absolutely! You’d just lose the jobs, flow down (not trickle), related tax income and future economic and environmental benefits.

 

[Roast Veg]

One thing that's big-changed recently is the ability for business travellers to remote work. Thus, a slower train with big tables and reliable wifi/5G coverage (get some masts in all along the WCML, say) is of more value than a faster one with a cramped seating layout.

But how many people are actually doing this? A negligible number, because they'll either take the meeting at home or in the office, not on the move.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But how many people are actually doing this? A negligible number, because they'll either take the meeting at home or in the office, not on the move.

The ability to remote work on the train does enable longer distance business trips and avoidance of getting up at 5am.

TPE didn't choose an almost-all-tables layout for the 397 for a laugh.

Meanwhile HS2 spec is for a very small proportion of tables...fail...

 

[MattRat]

Exactly.

I know someone from Leeds who was opposed to the Leeds branch of HS2.

Then, when the Leeds branch was cancelled this, to her, was evidence that the government was out to hurt both the north in general and the northeast and Leeds in particular. I suspect there will be many people like her who will be unhappy no matter whether HS2 gets build or cancelled

And this is why the Conservatives pay no attention to them. Why should they? When they can't win.

 

[HSTEd]

Providing all tables for a route where virtually all journeys will be 70 minutes or less seems a little bit silly...

And if you want more tables the best way to provide them would be to order captive double-decks like the new TGV M sets rather than a huge fleet of cramped classic compatibles.

The most important determinant on traffic in the future will be price, it must be as low as possible.

 

[RailWonderer]

Governments do not borrow money, they create it. Note how £65bn was found in an instance to bail out pension funds a month or so ago. Gilts are investors choosing to invest existing money in a government savings account and anyone can do the same. Think of it this way, we don’t call our savings at a bank borrowing.

They create it but there is a an annual debt servicing cost which will rise if they create more money, which snowballs and increases inflation even more. They can magic out money but not without huge consequences and the OBR has to review it still, which is a good thing.

 

[mike57]

How much money could be saved if rolling stock procurement went for 300kph rather than 400kph, I know the civil engineering for 400kph is past the point of making a saving by reducing speeds.

I am in no doubt that government will be looking to stop postpone anything to do with HS2 beyond that which is started 'beyond the point of no return', which is probably boots and spades on the ground.

I think the question will be how much can they cut and still leave something useful. They may spin it as 'postponed' but the end result will be the same.

 

[RailWonderer]

Providing all tables for a route where virtually all journeys will be 70 minutes or less seems a little bit silly...

The trains will be classic compatible because captive trains just for one stretch of line from Euston to Brum would be an absolute waste. Passengers would then be travelling further, where more tables would be essential.

 

[Mikey C]

Once again:

It is also important to note that the "black hole" isn't that the Government has an overdraft which is being called in and needs paying off now. What it actually is (and why the actual sum is debatable) is the difference between expenditure, including capex, and the amount the Government thinks it can reasonably borrow without the interest rates getting silly.

Thus, HS2 *does* impact the "black hole" because it impacts public borrowing. The "black hole" has occured because the Truss-Kwarteng budget damaged the UK's reputation on the markets and as such massively upped the cost of Government borrowing.

What completely freaked the markets was borrowing masses of extra money to fund tax cuts and the fuel subsidy, i.e. revenue expenditure not capital expenditure.

And my point is that a lot of HS2 expenditure is way in the future. The markets won't be freaking if we need to borrow £5bn a year between 2030 and 2035 to build Section 2b, it's the next 5 years which are crucial.

 

[Xavi]

Please go and do some background reading on Government borrowing and how money markets work (and why what Truss and Kwarteng did was such a problem), this is rather ill-informed but I don't think it's in the scope of this thread to provide a full rundown of it.

You’ll find it’s you who needs to do the reading. I have a university degree in economics. I do understand that it’s difficult to understand the truth when listening to your average politician or journalist. How do you think the banks were bailed out in 2008 without the markets collapsing? Suggest you start here:

David Blanchflower – Bruce V. Rauner Professor of Economics

sites.dartmouth.edu

What is the cost of means testing winter fuel allowance?

Rachel Reeves posted this on Twitter this lunchtime: This means 70% of all pensioners are going to have the winter fuel allowance restored after not having it for one year. 30% will miss out. How is she going to find out who they are? Given the complexity of many taxpayers' affairs, there...

www.taxresearch.org.uk

 

[Noddy]

Thus, HS2 *does* impact the "black hole" because it impacts public borrowing. The "black hole" has occured because the Truss-Kwarteng budget damaged the UK's reputation on the markets and as such massively upped the cost of Government borrowing.

you could 4-track the whole of Castlefield with the change, including buying some property in the way and demolishing it.

So, again, how does cancelling HS2 improve the prospects of other infrastructure projects going through?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Providing all tables for a route where virtually all journeys will be 70 minutes or less seems a little bit silly...

No, it really doesn't. Look at what people choose on LNR services, I note again the popularity of the 350/2 groups of 6.

And if you want more tables the best way to provide them would be to order captive double-decks like the new TGV M sets rather than a huge fleet of cramped classic compatibles.

Double deck stock is awful. Cramped and uncomfortable and not actually very space efficient.

The most important determinant on traffic in the future will be price, it must be as low as possible.

Then reduce the WCML back to 110mph and run everything as LNR services. That would actually be popular - have you seen the usage they're getting?

 

[Xavi]

They create it but there is a an annual debt servicing cost which will rise if they create more money, which snowballs and increases inflation even more. They can magic out money but not without huge consequences and the OBR has to review it still, which is a good thing.

Wrong. Gilts are not creating new money, they are investors placing money in government accounts.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Nov 2022 ==

So, again, how does cancelling HS2, improve the prospects of other infrastructure projects going through?

It wouldn’t.