• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Temporary Timetable 13th Dec - 7th Jan

Status
Not open for further replies.

DanNCL

Established Member
Joined
17 Jul 2017
Messages
5,074
Location
County Durham
For heavens sake this is not going to spell the end for the UK rail network. Some people here need to stop panicking!

Could it drive many people away from the rail network for good? Yes. Are Network Rail overreacting? Possibly, yes. But it won't spell the end for the network nor lead to any permanent closures bar possibly a few basket cases like Teesside Airport (which is 'temporarily' closed anyway!)

This'll get sorted out either when the government have their hand forced or when there's a change of government, which is at most 2 years away.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

JonathanH

Veteran Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
21,445
This'll get sorted out either when the government have their hand forced or when there's a change of government, which is at most 2 years away.
Two years of industrial action is a long spell of disruption. There will be a very long list of things for an incoming government to sort out, a need for priorities to be considered, and they won't have a magic wand.

It also doesn't sort out the problem of the 13 December to 7 January period, or other similar periods after that.
 

DanNCL

Established Member
Joined
17 Jul 2017
Messages
5,074
Location
County Durham
Two years of industrial action is a long spell of disruption. There will be a very long list of things for an incoming government to sort out, a need for priorities to be considered, and they won't have a magic wand.

It also doesn't sort out the problem of the 13 December to 7 January period, or other similar periods after that.
I'm not disputing it could be a difficult two years. But I think some are overreacting when they picture permanent closures of sizeable chunks of the rail network as a result of this.
 

High Dyke

Established Member
Joined
1 Jan 2013
Messages
4,658
Location
Yellabelly Country
As usual, passengers are the mushrooms.
Many frontline staff are too.

The Memsahib advises that the TOC she works for are considering implementing their Key Route Strategy. This would mean some routes would have no service whatsoever. Then again, they're quick to sacrifice some routes currently
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
32,506
I think the mistake being made in many quarters is that Government won’t be able to stomach the disruption caused, and will thus be forced to change tack. After nearly 6 months of strikes, Government knows very well what disruption is like, and knows exactly what is coming.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
41,956
Location
Yorks
If they announce, the majority of the public will simply make alternative plans, not demand trains be run. Once they've made those plans, they won't be changing them this christmas. Many of them won't come back to the railways for a very, very long time.
The government wants the revenue. It's not going to scare everybody off until it has no other choice.

If they know what a disaster it's going to be, they shouldn't be contemplating it in the first instance. "No other choice" is a red herring. The industry has agreed below inflation payrises elsewhere, Government is choosing not to take this option.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
18,854
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
I think the mistake being made in many quarters is that Government won’t be able to stomach the disruption caused, and will thus be forced to change tack. After nearly 6 months of strikes, Government knows very well what disruption is like, and knows exactly what is coming.

I guess one factor is whether this government seriously believes they have a hope, no matter how small, of actually winning the next election.

If they do, then disruption is something they could do without. If they don’t then all bets are off. We don’t know that much about Sunak to know what his motives are, one of the least scrutinised prime ministers ever.

The other factor is what other strikes happen over the coming weeks. NHS and road workers will both cause significant issues. Ungritted roads over a cold snap, for example, would be a pretty serious problem.
 
Last edited:

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
41,956
Location
Yorks
Many frontline staff are too.

The Memsahib advises that the TOC she works for are considering implementing their Key Route Strategy. This would mean some routes would have no service whatsoever. Then again, they're quick to sacrifice some routes currently

Yes, I can imagine what that will mean around here.
 

zwk500

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Jan 2020
Messages
15,512
Location
Bristol
If they know what a disaster it's going to be, they shouldn't be contemplating it in the first instance.
They need to have a plan should an agreement fail to be secured
"No other choice" is a red herring. The industry has agreed below inflation payrises elsewhere, Government is choosing not to take this option.
Securing an agreement is one method to avoid the nuclear option. But remember the government cannot print money ad infinitum, nor can it afford to concede too much ground to the unions, so there is a limit to the deals it can offer.

For the record, I agree with you, the government could offer a deal very similar to the one TfW agreed. That wasn't a bad deal for both sides.
 

Peter Sarf

Established Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
7,770
Location
Croydon
It is indeed surreal to be living, for the first time in my lifetime, with a government who seem to be devoid of any vision, but at the same time keen to be destructive *and* laughing at the population at the same time. Whilst the Major years were chaotic, at least there did seem to be some idea what to do.
Things are coming to a head and that is rarely a comfortable time.
There is of course the oft-quoted myth that the railway was dead for much of 2020. The few weeks after March 2020 might have been dead, however this didn’t last.

As a point of order, there were of course people shielding who were paid to stay at home, however this was the case across the entire workforce, by no means unique to the railway.
In that case I may have fallen for that "urban myth".
I don't think this is a sensible line to go down from either side, because to be honest I'd rather have been out working the railway than sitting at home bored on furlough. A free holiday is only any good if you can do anything with it. (I did enjoy the best of both worlds as my job is home based, but spending months at home in lockdown would just have been tedious in the extreme).

People moan about going to work, but really being unemployed and stuck at home is far worse even on the same money. Employment gives routine and self worth.
Grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Too much of one thing or the other is bad for people.

Work does provide an important social function not just for the result but for the worker.
Given the dispersed nature of the signalling system on the UK railway, there will be a hard floor where the service utterly collapses.

If you need people in four places to run a line - you can't run it with three people even if the amount of workload could notionally be handled by them if the service was somewhat cut or simplified.

Really highlights the potential advantages of ROCs doesn't it ......

As it is, I think we ultimately have to try to be sanguine about this mess.
I don't think the existence of the railway itself is in significant jeopardy, but I think it will have to change to survive in the post strike world.
I agree it must be the ROCs (Regional Operating Centres ?) that can be kept going the easiest.
EH? What planet are you on mate? It was the rail staff forced to go out to work everyday (without decent PPE) whilst you were safely locked at home. We very nearly lost a young healthy colleague at Plymouth to covid so spare us the bull about nurses please.

As Yorksrob points out, its the "squatter governemnt" that's the issue here , and the county as a whole is in limbo until they are gone.

The railworkers are not the enemy here. What reasonable person can come up to a 4th year with no payrise and still afford to pay the bills when inflation is at 10 percent?!!
My bold. Well I had not one single day off apart from some of my holiday entitlement. I also had over 10 days off recovering from Covid, no need to isolate I was down !. I spent all day wearing PPE including a mask even though many around me did not and would shop some of us for not wearing a mask. The most stupid thing is I was not allowed to give my closest colleague a lift home in my car every day as it was considered a risk to spread of Covid - so stupid as he was therefore on the bus with total strangers and could bring Covid to me as we worked together !. We had to do extra work (cleaning, getting furniture to home workers, juggling/corralling lorries that could not leave for Europe etc) on top of our normal factory maintenance.

But I do get the impression that I am incorrect about how many rail staff were sent home.
Only one website, GWR. And it was only up for a few minutes or hours before being taken down again. Still nothing on the record...

It seems possible to me that TOCs and Network Rail are trying to keep it out of the public domain for as long as they think they can get away with, so as not to prejudice negotiations and put people off travelling if there's some kind of deal.
I agree. There is no point scaremongering unless a TOC/government think it will force someones hand.

I think the confusion here is that we are talking about the 13/12/2022 - 07/01/2023 blanket service restrictions being planned to aid planning for both rail staff and passengers. But the TOC info seems more restricted to smaller ranges of dates (that might be the actual Union reported/threatened strike days).
If they announce, the majority of the public will simply make alternative plans, not demand trains be run. Once they've made those plans, they won't be changing them this christmas. Many of them won't come back to the railways for a very, very long time.
The government wants the revenue. It's not going to scare everybody off until it has no other choice.
The damage could well be worse than the actual dispute would cause.
For heavens sake this is not going to spell the end for the UK rail network. Some people here need to stop panicking!

Could it drive many people away from the rail network for good? Yes. Are Network Rail overreacting? Possibly, yes. But it won't spell the end for the network nor lead to any permanent closures bar possibly a few basket cases like Teesside Airport (which is 'temporarily' closed anyway!)

This'll get sorted out either when the government have their hand forced or when there's a change of government, which is at most 2 years away.
There are of course those who think it is the unions that need to have their hand forced. One factor is how much money the government want to pour into a loss making industry. The balance is what the unions feel their members should earn. I believe that the railways have a social purpose but I can see the money is not there to fund everything we would like.
 
Last edited:

LNW-GW Joint

Veteran Member
Joined
22 Feb 2011
Messages
21,165
Location
Mold, Clwyd
For the record, I agree with you, the government could offer a deal very similar to the one TfW agreed. That wasn't a bad deal for both sides.
That wouldn't solve the NR dispute.
I also suspect the DfT wants more change at its TOCs than TfW/Scotrail did.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
41,956
Location
Yorks
They need to have a plan should an agreement fail to be secured

Securing an agreement is one method to avoid the nuclear option. But remember the government cannot print money ad infinitum, nor can it afford to concede too much ground to the unions, so there is a limit to the deals it can offer.

For the record, I agree with you, the government could offer a deal very similar to the one TfW agreed. That wasn't a bad deal for both sides.

I note from the news that the teachers have rejected a 5% pay offer and are holding out for 11%.

Given that the industry has agreed to rises of 4-5% this year elsewhere, the Government would do well to settle on that.
 

Peter Sarf

Established Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
7,770
Location
Croydon
I think the mistake being made in many quarters is that Government won’t be able to stomach the disruption caused, and will thus be forced to change tack. After nearly 6 months of strikes, Government knows very well what disruption is like, and knows exactly what is coming.
I fear that is the case. Government do seem to be standing their ground. I think the lack of a magic money tree is what is influencing them.
If they know what a disaster it's going to be, they shouldn't be contemplating it in the first instance. "No other choice" is a red herring. The industry has agreed below inflation payrises elsewhere, Government is choosing not to take this option.
I think it comes down to not wanting to spend what we don't have. We have even less now than we had before Liz Truss gave Sunak the proof he needed.
I guess one factor is whether this government seriously believes they have a hope, no matter how small, of actually winning the next election.

If they do, then disruption is something they could do without. If they don’t then all bets are off. We don’t know that much about Sunak to know what his motives are, one of the least scrutinised prime ministers ever.

The other factor is what other strikes happen over the coming weeks. NHS and road workers will both cause significant issues. Ungritted roads over a cold snap, for example, would be a pretty serious problem.
I think Sunak is more socialist than in the Thatcherite era. I dread to think what sort of response to a pandemic like Covid would we have had back in the Thatcherite era. But he has no money to play with. Then again this problem could be being dumped upon the next government which is likely to be Labour anyway.
They need to have a plan should an agreement fail to be secured

Securing an agreement is one method to avoid the nuclear option. But remember the government cannot print money ad infinitum, nor can it afford to concede too much ground to the unions, so there is a limit to the deals it can offer.

For the record, I agree with you, the government could offer a deal very similar to the one TfW agreed. That wasn't a bad deal for both sides.
This is my hope. I doubt the planners could knock something up at the last minute - @Bald Rick seems to be in that boat. So a "sensible" plan has to be built in case - contingency. This then allows the passengers to plan. Goodness knows how freight will fare - shortages in the shops anyone ?.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
41,956
Location
Yorks
So, are the signallers massively dependant on rest day working etc, otherwise why are they chopping everything at 18:30, rather than thinning out the service through the day.
 

Doctor Fegg

Established Member
Joined
9 Nov 2010
Messages
2,126
Location
Charlbury
This is what people seem to want to ignore - there is no magic money tree.
Oh, believe me, there is. The £27bn roads budget sails on, miraculously uncut. There is infinite money for Ukraine - not that I'm saying this is a bad thing, but nonetheless it's there. And there will be a magical tax giveaway for selected swing voters in next year's budget "thanks to our prudent stewardship of the economy" or some such guff.

We are a rich, low-tax country with ample opportunity to raise revenue. When people say "there is no magic money tree", they mean "spending should be on things that benefit me, not you".
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
18,854
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
So, are the signallers massively dependant on rest day working etc

Generally, the answer to that question is very much yes.

Remember that the whole Covid situation tended to see
* retirements brought forward
* less recruitment
* periods of no training

Draw one’s own conclusions what impact that will have had on staffing levels!
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
41,956
Location
Yorks
Generally, the answer to that question is very much yes.

Remember that the whole Covid situation tended to see
* retirements brought forward
* less recruitment
* periods of no training

Draw one’s own conclusions what impact that will have had on staffing levels!

That might be a key problem, but where possible, something like an hourly or two hourly service throughout the day would be far more useful to people over this period than shutting down in the middle of the day.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
18,854
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
I think Sunak is more socialist than in the Thatcherite era. I dread to think what sort of response to a pandemic like Covid would we have had back in the Thatcherite era.

Ironically, I don’t think we’d be having as many of the longer-term legacies had Thatcher been the Covid PM. All speculation of course, however I think there would have been a much more urgent focus on keeping the economy productive. I also can’t see Thatcher having a blind “follow the science” policy as a means of avoiding difficult decisions. As a minimum I think Thatcher would have given the likes of Whitty, Vallance and SAGE a lot more scrutiny.

Johnson simply buckled at every turn, until such time as it essentially got taken out of his hands by other elements of his party. Sunak, meanwhile, was too busy craftily working away at how he could build up “brand Rishi” off the back of it all.

Then again this problem could be being dumped upon the next government which is likely to be Labour anyway.

Knowing how volatile our political system has been recently, I wouldn’t lay too much money on *anything*. However it does seem likely a lot of this is going to be Labour’s problem to clear up. I’m not sure if Sunak actually thinks he has a chance of winning the next election though, I guess we’ll find out if there is an “eat out to vote Tory” scheme!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

That might be a key problem, but where possible, something like an hourly or two hourly service throughout the day would be far more useful to people over this period than shutting down in the middle of the day.

This doesn’t really square up with signallers nowadays tending to work 12 hour shifts though. One wonders what plans are being made to facilitate engineering works in all this.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
32,506
So, are the signallers massively dependant on rest day working etc, otherwise why are they chopping everything at 18:30, rather than thinning out the service through the day.

Not massively, it varies by location. But on any one line you only need one gap not able to be covered, and you can run nothing.

As a hypothetical example, London - Southend / Witham via Shenfield needs 6 signallers on duty on the ‘GE’ side of Liverpool St IECC. Usually there will also be a spare rostered to cover leave / sickness etc, and a meal break relief, so eight people on duty. If one of the rostered staff is off for any reason, then the spare will cover them. If two are off, then normally one would be covered by rest day or overtime, although in some circumstances it can be managed by shuffling the meal break relief around, and making use of the shift supervisor. If three are off, one position is definitely uncovered, and needs someone from another shift to work a rest day or overtime. with rest days / overtime not being worked, there is the problem.

it gets harder where there is a chain of single person boxes, especially if a flexi / general relief (who work more than one box) are off work.

That might be a key problem, but where possible, something like an hourly or two hourly service throughout the day would be far more useful to people over this period than shutting down in the middle of the day.

Yes this would be preferable of course, but you need all positions covered for that to happen.

not that anywhere will be planned to shut down in the middle of the day.
 
Last edited:

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
41,956
Location
Yorks
Thanks. Hopefully there will be some hope for a main line service throughout the day then.
 

The Middle

Member
Joined
18 Jun 2022
Messages
149
Location
Uk
Zahawi hasn't exactly been striking a conciliatory tone in the media round this morning.
 

DanNCL

Established Member
Joined
17 Jul 2017
Messages
5,074
Location
County Durham
There are of course those who think it is the unions that need to have their hand forced. One factor is how much money the government want to pour into a loss making industry. The balance is what the unions feel their members should earn. I believe that the railways have a social purpose but I can see the money is not there to fund everything we would like.
Realistically the only way out of this is compromise. The RMT have already shown willingness to compromise, even the DFT have to some extent, it’s the Treasury currently holding things up.
 

Starmill

Veteran Member
Joined
18 May 2012
Messages
25,412
Location
Bolton
I note from the news that the teachers have rejected a 5% pay offer and are holding out for 11%.

Given that the industry has agreed to rises of 4-5% this year elsewhere, the Government would do well to settle on that.
Unions representing school and hospital staff aren't advancing the same arguments as unions representing railway staff, in general. The former are asking for real pay values to rise to 2010/11 levels while the latter are generally asking for it to rise to 2019/20 levels. Other unions representing cleaners or contract support workers are also making very different asks, such as for asking for hourly in-work pay to rise to the Living Wage Foundation rates. Therefore, very different percentage rates in one year-on-year comparison may be the result.
 

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
18,892
Spare/GPR staff certainly, but I still don't see how that would leave Signalling Centres unstaffed and therefore unable to run any trains for half the day!
Well a signaller can only be in one place for one shift!

No matter how few trains are running there is an irreducible minimum of signallers who must be in position for a line to operate at all.

Short of trying to use helicopters to move signallers around in pace with trains, if you don't have enough staff to cover the required number of posts the line is closed.
 

Baxenden Bank

Established Member
Joined
23 Oct 2013
Messages
4,314
I think the mistake being made in many quarters is that Government won’t be able to stomach the disruption caused, and will thus be forced to change tack. After nearly 6 months of strikes, Government knows very well what disruption is like, and knows exactly what is coming.
I do believe you are entirely correct.

This is not a government which has 'the public interest' at heart, or anywhere in its priorities. They know they have most likely lost the next general election (look at the names standing down voluntarily). There will not be 'riots in the streets' if some kind of service on key routes is maintained for the period around Christmas and New Year. Most people can make arrangements around that - lifts, taxis, buses to the nearest station which keeps a service. It will be inconvenient, it will seriously annoy people, it will have long-term impacts in terms of confidence in the abiity of rail to be there when neeeded. Those who have not had a full service since the start of the pandemic, with no sign of a return to full timetable, may already feel like that.
 

Mathew S

Established Member
Joined
7 Aug 2017
Messages
2,167
Unions representing school and hospital staff aren't advancing the same arguments as unions representing railway staff, in general. The former are asking for real pay values to rise to 2010/11 levels while the latter are generally asking for it to rise to 2019/20 levels. Other unions representing cleaners or contract support workers are also making very different asks, such as for asking for hourly in-work pay to rise to the Living Wage Foundation rates. Therefore, very different percentage rates in one year-on-year comparison may be the result.
The whole system for setting public sector pay is very, very broken.

While a number of public sector unions (mine included) are asking for a return to 2010/11 pay levels, I don't think any of us are under any illusion we'll get that - it would be an increase of 30% or even more in some cases. I think it's inflation over these last 12 months or so that has been the final straw for a lot of people... probably a double-digit percentage increase would be enough to get a 'yes' vote from union members; bringing pay back to where it was in summer 2021. But for that, I'd be unsurprised to see strikes among anyone from air traffic controllers to zoo inspectors.

As an aside, it's interesting how many middle and senior managers in public sector bodies have been joining/re-joining unions these last few months. They want to pay their staff more, and in many cases have the funding to do so... the evil Treasury puppet masters won't let them spend it.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
32,506
Spare/GPR staff certainly, but I still don't see how that would leave Signalling Centres unstaffed and therefore unable to run any trains for half the day!

By shifting spares from nights to day (which can be done). This provides cover for days, but obviously leaves bigger gaps at night.


 

Deepgreen

Established Member
Joined
12 Jun 2013
Messages
6,962
Location
Gomshall, Surrey
Well, its your industry. Your disaster.

My job doesn't rely on the railway, fortunately.
I'm sure we're all relieved that you're alright.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Zahawi hasn't exactly been striking a conciliatory tone in the media round this morning.
His statement that Putin wants UK strikes is a disgrace - using the Ukraine situation to pressure those on strike is a new low for this Government of repeated lows.
 
Last edited:

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
105,331
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
His statement that Putin wants UK strikes is a disgrace - using the Ukraine situation to pressure those on strike is a new low for this Government of repeated lows.

While it is poor form to use it as an argument, it is almost certainly true. Russia is known to interfere in e.g. UK social media to encourage political destabilisation. It was almost certainly involved in Brexit, for instance.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top