Woking - Basingstoke (near Hook) landslip (15/01/23)

[swt_passenger]

I realise it's been very wet lately but why did we not get such big issues in previous wet winters? Has there been a lack of maintenance in recent years?

There might have been the odd incident before, but from reports on here, it sounds like the entire "Southern Region" is grinding to a halt!

There have been quite a few significant embankment failures in recent years, in all 3 “Southern” areas. Often they occur without very much discussion here because they happen on less significant routes. Add all the cutting failures and I’d suggest there are quite a few problems most years.

So perhaps there needs to be a rolling programme of earthwork preemptive rebuilds…

 

[Celia Stanley]

So what are those pesky nuisances who live in Hook, Winchfield and Fleet who want to travel supposed to do?

Rail replacement bus service? - you must be having a laugh.

SWR have the cheek to suggest "...if you would prefer to use local buses...", but that there will be no ticket acceptance.

The existing Stagecoach bus service 7 between Fleet and Aldershot runs every 2 hours, and service 10 between Fleet and Farnborough is hourly, so that is hardly much help.

Eff off and stop bothering us, seems to be the attitude of SWR.

I live in Fleet. The 10 bus doesn’t even run hourly & it’s a disaster for anyone without a car! SWR need at the very least to provide rail bus replacements but there’s no sign so far. I agree totally with your last sentence!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There have been quite a few significant embankment failures in recent years, in all 3 “Southern” areas. Often they occur without very much discussion here because they happen on less significant routes. Add all the cutting failures and I’d suggest there are quite a few problems most years.

So perhaps there needs to be a rolling programme of earthwork preemptive rebuilds…

NR was given considerably more money for earthworks in CP6 but embankment failures are difficult to preempt as very few show early signs of slipping and very localised weather has a bearing. Probably find at hook that it received exceptional levels of rainfall which were very localised like Carmont which had the centre been a mile in either direction the outcome would have been different.

 

[Bald Rick]

I realise it's been very wet lately but why did we not get such big issues in previous wet winters?

We did, in spades. There‘s literally so many examples I can’t list them all, but in the last few years:

Wadhurst (and other examples on the Hastings line)
Warnham
Bexleyheath line (can’t remember where exactly)
Wanborough
Godstone
numerous examples on the Brighton line through the South Downs
etc

 

[swt_passenger]

NR was given considerably more money for earthworks in CP6 but embankment failures are difficult to preempt as very few show early signs of slipping and very localised weather has a bearing. Probably find at hook that it received exceptional levels of rainfall which were very localised like Carmont which had the centre been a mile in either direction the outcome would have been different.

Yes, I’m sure that in practice it will be incredibly difficult for them to prioritise any particular locations.

 

[zwk500]

NR was given considerably more money for earthworks in CP6 but embankment failures are difficult to preempt as very few show early signs of slipping and very localised weather has a bearing. Probably find at hook that it received exceptional levels of rainfall which were very localised like Carmont which had the centre been a mile in either direction the outcome would have been different.

This is becoming such a problem that we may need to review what counts as 'exceptional'!

 

[Goldfish62]

I live in Fleet. The 10 bus doesn’t even run hourly & it’s a disaster for anyone without a car! SWR need at the very least to provide rail bus replacements but there’s no sign so far. I agree totally with your last sentence!

Well indeed. Southern are providing replacement bus services between Hurst Green and East Grinstead due to the landslip there. OK, they're spasmodic currently, but at least an attempt is being made.

 

[kristiang85]

There have been quite a few significant embankment failures in recent years, in all 3 “Southern” areas. Often they occur without very much discussion here because they happen on less significant routes. Add all the cutting failures and I’d suggest there are quite a few problems most years.

So perhaps there needs to be a rolling programme of earthwork preemptive rebuilds…

I guess it doesn't help when so many trees are cut down, but I have no idea if that has been a recent happening on the affected areas so it might not be that. But generally less vegetation on a slope means more erosion.

 

[zwk500]

I guess it doesn't help when so many trees are cut down, but I have no idea if that has been a recent happening on the affected areas so it might not be that. But generally less vegetation on a slope means more erosion.

Less trees in particular is a problem, as their roots are much better at holding the soil together. However lots of trees also means lots of leaves, and that leads to all sorts of other problems.

 

[Hellzapoppin]

Trees don't help. During the summer months they draw all the moisture from the soil and during the winter when you need the water removed the trees aren't using any.

 

[Sebastian O]

I guess it doesn't help when so many trees are cut down, but I have no idea if that has been a recent happening on the affected areas so it might not be that. But generally less vegetation on a slope means more erosion.

I think the NR argument was dead trees being the concern as they for some reason reduce in size leading to embankment damage.

 

[Hellzapoppin]

I did ask one of my civil engineering colleagues about trees and he said that cutting down trees causes a problem where they decay and leave voids underground, water goes into those voids and that creates more problems.

 

[43066]

Bexleyheath line (can’t remember where exactly)

Near Barnhurst I suspect? The embankment was heavily shored up a few years back after numerous landslides.

 

[DelW]

Based on the limited numbers of pictures I've seen, this looks like a classic rotational slip, almost vertical at track level. If so, the slip surface will mostly be below the level at which vegetation, even tree roots, will have any significant effect.

It's most likely to be caused by changes in ground water conditions, as suggested above - drying causing cracking in the hot dry summer, followed by water ingress during the recent prolonged rainfall. Within the ground, water pressure increases, so effective stress decreases, and eventually the stability FoS drops below 1.

 

[The Ham]

Well indeed. Southern are providing replacement bus services between Hurst Green and East Grinstead due to the landslip there. OK, they're spasmodic currently, but at least an attempt is being made.

Even a once every two hours (so clearly never going to be able to cope, so most would avoid using it) would be better than nothing.

Last year Fleet was 800,000 passengers, using that as a baseline over 300 days of use that's about 80 in each direction in the peak hours.

Now yes towards London would be busier and there's Hook and Winchfield to account for, but with the option of going via Reading is going to be a more even split.

80 would be 1/8th of the flow (typically 1/10th is expected in the peak hour) yet there'll be those leaving at 6:30/7:00 for going to London whilst 7:30/8:00 for those heading towards college/schools.

To run 2 buses an hour in each direction would be 2 buses running at any one time (assuming a 30 minutes journey time between Basingstoke and Farnborough calling at each station).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Jan 2023 ==

Based on the limited numbers of pictures I've seen, this looks like a classic rotational slip, almost vertical at track level. If so, the slip surface will mostly be below the level at which vegetation, even tree roots, will have any significant effect.

It's most likely to be caused by changes in ground water conditions, as suggested above - drying causing cracking in the hot dry summer, followed by water ingress during the recent prolonged rainfall. Within the ground, water pressure increases, so effective stress decreases, and eventually the stability FoS drops below 1.

If you look at maps the river Whitewater isn't that far away from the land slip, which is likely to mean a significant amount of water around at this time.

 

[Bald Rick]

Near Barnhurst I suspect? The embankment was heavily shored up a few years back after numerous landslides.

That’s the one. Friend of mine rebuilt it.

 

[Flange Squeal]

To run 2 buses an hour in each direction would be 2 buses running at any one time (assuming a 30 minutes journey time between Basingstoke and Farnborough calling at each station).

30 minutes Basingstoke to Farnborough, calling at each station, would not be achievable. For reference, taking Sunday just gone as an example, stopping buses between the two are given 47 minutes in each direction.

 

[brad465]

I realise it's been very wet lately but why did we not get such big issues in previous wet winters? Has there been a lack of maintenance in recent years?

There might have been the odd incident before, but from reports on here, it sounds like the entire "Southern Region" is grinding to a halt!

As mentioned above there have been plenty of incidents, but what makes a difference with publicity is the significance of the route. This is the SWML in a very busy section, while Dawlish 2014 was big news as it cut off all of Cornwall while also being in a "symbolic" location. The many other incidents have been on routes lesser known and with less traffic.

 

[The Ham]

30 minutes Basingstoke to Farnborough, calling at each station, would not be achievable. For reference, taking Sunday just gone as an example, stopping buses between the two are given 47 minutes in each direction.

Even at 60 minutes each way that's still only 4 buses.

That's assuming needing 2 buses an hour, all the time, which you probably wouldn't do.

You could have 6:00, 6:45, 7:30, 8:15 (that's 3 x 60 which is 180 if you used double decker buses, over a 2 hour peak window in each direction), that's enough to cater for 2021/22 flows, which whilst lower than this year's flows people are going to limit their travel because of the extended journey times.

For example some would drive or get a lift to a nearby station or to where they were wanting to go, others would WFH a little more (some doing 1 day a week rather than none, others doing 5 days a week for the circa 2 months, others doing 3 rather than 2, etc.), others could defer their travel, whilst others still could flex their start times on the days they go in so that they aren't traveling in the high peak (for example log in at home for 90 minutes, catch up on admin tasks, then arrive to the office at 11 am, work 6:15 hours with a 15 minute break, leave 17:30 - yes that's the morning basically missed, but it's still most of the working day being in the office).

 

[VWRO2]

Passengers are allowed to use their tickets on the following services;

GWR;
Basingstoke - Reading - Paddington
Westbury - Paddington
Exeter St.Davids - Paddington

Cross country;
Southampton - Reading

Buses; Stagecoach 1 Alton - Farnham/Farnborough

Information for those who may not have seen anywhere else

 

[duncanp]

I live in Fleet. The 10 bus doesn’t even run hourly & it’s a disaster for anyone without a car! SWR need at the very least to provide rail bus replacements but there’s no sign so far. I agree totally with your last sentence!

I know all about the miserable apology for a bus service that is the number 10 from Farnborough to Church Crookham.

My father and grandmother had their ashes scattered in the church yard at Church Crookham, and I use the no 10 to get there. Or at least I used to, these days I take a taxi.

If it ran every 30 minutes, as it used to, it would be a viable route to Farnborough to connect with the trains.

The no 7 to Aldershot runs every 2 hours, so that is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

And there is no longer a through bus between Fleet and Reading.

When SWR management say "Fleet is closed", and "do not travel", they have no idea how it impacts people's daily lives.

It is one thing if the closure is a day or two. It is quite another thing when the closure lasts a week or longer.

 

[Renternolonger]

Passengers are allowed to use their tickets on the following services;

GWR;
Basingstoke - Reading - Paddington
Westbury - Paddington
Exeter St.Davids - Paddington

Cross country;
Southampton - Reading

Buses; Stagecoach 1 Alton - Farnham/Farnborough

Information for those who may not have seen anywhere else

Where have you seen that information? I have been getting conflicting advice from SWR on the Exeter St David's to Paddington equivalence.

 

[Flange Squeal]

Even at 60 minutes each way that's still only 4 buses.

That's assuming needing 2 buses an hour, all the time, which you probably wouldn't do.

You could have 6:00, 6:45, 7:30, 8:15 (that's 3 x 60 which is 180 if you used double decker buses, over a 2 hour peak window in each direction), that's enough to cater for 2021/22 flows, which whilst lower than this year's flows people are going to limit their travel because of the extended journey times.

For example some would drive or get a lift to a nearby station or to where they were wanting to go, others would WFH a little more (some doing 1 day a week rather than none, others doing 5 days a week for the circa 2 months, others doing 3 rather than 2, etc.), others could defer their travel, whilst others still could flex their start times on the days they go in so that they aren't traveling in the high peak (for example log in at home for 90 minutes, catch up on admin tasks, then arrive to the office at 11 am, work 6:15 hours with a 15 minute break, leave 17:30 - yes that's the morning basically missed, but it's still most of the working day being in the office).

Which is all very well - now you just need to find the spare drivers from companies already struggling to staff their regular day to day commitments, and double deckers not already engaged on school contracts during the peaks.

Coach operators with reduced holidays/private hire at this time of year are probably the only ones likely to really have the ability to provide during those sorts of hours, but I can’t think of (m)any local that even really operate deckers. Sadly most are very much single deck coach focused, with some having a couple of low floor saloons for weekend rail work that might well be available. Double deckers are very much the preserve of the bus companies engaged on general service or school work during the week in this area. Stagecoach have a large reserve fleet they could probably pick from, but struggle to staff their own service network at the moment let alone extras. A local bus operator I’m connected with - and who does rail work - could likely rustle up some deckers… but filling the drivers seat would be the issue.

 

[The Ham]

Which is all very well - now you just need to find the spare drivers from companies already struggling to staff their regular day to day commitments, and double deckers not already engaged on school contracts during the peaks.

Coach operators with reduced holidays/private hire at this time of year are probably the only ones likely to really have the ability to provide during those sorts of hours, but I can’t think of (m)any local that even really operate deckers. Sadly most are very much single deck coach focused, with some having a couple of low floor saloons for weekend rail work that might well be available. Double deckers are very much the preserve of the bus companies engaged on general service or school work during the week in this area. Stagecoach have a large reserve fleet they could probably pick from, but struggle to staff their own service network at the moment let alone extras. A local bus operator I’m connected with - and who does rail work - could likely rustle up some deckers… but filling the drivers seat would be the issue.

As I said even 1 bus every 2 hours would help massively, apparently it's possible to run replacement services elsewhere on the SWR network, so why absolutely nothing for this section (this is now the 4th day and this is likely to be ongoing for 8 weeks, given Network Rail are likely paying SWR for loss of rail line why is none of this money -and just from the Basingstoke stoppers is likely to be a significant payment - being used to provide something).

At one every 2 hours most people wouldn't use it, but for those who needed it there would be something.

 

[VWRO2]

Where have you seen that information? I have been getting conflicting advice from SWR on the Exeter St David's to Paddington equivalence.

Internal email. SWR are unable to show the information as a do not travel message is in place.

 

[Flange Squeal]

As I said even 1 bus every 2 hours would help massively, apparently it's possible to run replacement services elsewhere on the SWR network, so why absolutely nothing for this section (this is now the 4th day and this is likely to be ongoing for 8 weeks, given Network Rail are likely paying SWR for loss of rail line why is none of this money -and just from the Basingstoke stoppers is likely to be a significant payment - being used to provide something).

At one every 2 hours most people wouldn't use it, but for those who needed it there would be something.

Where are they running weekday daytime replacement buses elsewhere on the SWR network at the moment? I can only see late night and weekend ones - times when, as I said, bus drivers actually are available to be utilised outside of bus operators current commitments.

 

[Renternolonger]

Internal email. SWR are unable to show the information as a do not travel message is in place.

Thanks. One minute the SWR twitter feed says they are accepting tickets on Exeter/Paddington route and then they'll say its just the Reading /Paddington section and you need to go via Basingstoke. I just wonder how many staff on the ground know as I'm due to travel this week from Folkestone West to Exeter Central and am trying to reduce my stress! 8 see there is engineering work Saturday and Sunday on the Andover section.

 

[VWRO2]

Thanks. One minute the SWR twitter feed says they are accepting tickets on Exeter/Paddington route and then they'll say its just the Reading /Paddington section and you need to go via Basingstoke. I just wonder how many staff on the ground know as I'm due to travel this week from Folkestone West to Exeter Central and am trying to reduce my stress! 8 see there is engineering work Saturday and Sunday on the Andover section.

Platform staff and guards should be aware as they get the information control emails. However, these emails also come through with the other 300 or so other emails daily and having the time to sift through them doesn't always happen. If I see anything more I shall relay it

 

[yoyothehobo]

Around London Clay areas (particularly embankments constructed on london clay) trees (alive ones are particularly unhelpful) as the dry summer we have just experienced the trees just take all the moisture out which results in volume loss of the earthwork, desiccation issues, track faults which then when it rains can be susceptible to failure. Tree routes can be good at binding a loose topsoil/granular embankment but they just as often cause problems as reduce them.

Also when it comes to repairing or premeptively protecting upgrading earthworks it is an incredibly costly business. Access is an issue, you have to understand the ground model to make sure what you want to do is feasible and/or will actually do the job. Many instances throughout the country of repeated unsuccessful repairs to failures.

Not to mention that most of the earthworks in the country werent exactly designed either, they were just built and that our understanding and knowledge of soil mechanics is relatively new compared to structural mechanics.

 

[Renternolonger]

Platform staff and guards should be aware as they get the information control emails. However, these emails also come through with the other 300 or so other emails daily and having the time to sift through them doesn't always happen. If I see anything more I shall relay it

Thanks, appreciated.