More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[camflyer]

I predicted years ago that this would be the result. Birmingham would just become a commuter town for London, because nobody can afford to live in London anymore.

Even without Covid I don’t believe HS2 ever would have reached as far as Leeds or Manchester - Tories are just too London centric and don’t believe the North jas anything to offer

£50bn to extend the commuter towns of London instead of just investing in Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham etc. Absolutely crazy

HS2 is investing in Birmingham - it's going to bring in a lot of urban regeneration, new jobs and increased rail capacity for local services. Just look at all of the multinationals which have recently opened offices in the city centre.

It will do the same for Manchester, Leeds etc by improving the links between the cities of the north.

Yes, northern and trans-pennine services need to be improved but as Andy Burnham has always said it is not a choice between that and HS2 and both are needed. A thriving Manchester Manchester would just put more strain on the WCML.

 

[Meerkat]

If phase 2a goes then say goodbye to anything at Crewe itself as well. The 1980s layout will just get sweated more.

Can't Crewe be rebuilt to plan, either only between the junctions, or with the junctions built but not laid?
Then start toward Manchester, relabeled as NPR

 

[Neen Sollars]

Which would give us an expensive railway line which is of no use to the north of England or Scotland. To have any real benefit it has to go to Manchester and beyond. I'm sure all of the people demanding that it should be stopped at Birmingham would then complain that it only goes to Birmingham.

Get real! The project should have started in the North, then the Bham Intl to London would get binned due to cost. We are now faced with a (very very) expensive line which is of no use the North of England and Scotland. People can moan all they want about HS2 stopping at Handsacre, buts its like the ex Labour Chancellor Liam Byrne leaving the note in his desk for George Osborne, --- THERE IS NO MONEY. Hence nothing north of Lichfield.

 

[Meerkat]

I predicted years ago that this would be the result. Birmingham would just become a commuter town for London, because nobody can afford to live in London anymore.

Even without Covid I don’t believe HS2 ever would have reached as far as Leeds or Manchester - Tories are just too London centric and don’t believe the North jas anything to offer

£50bn to extend the commuter towns of London instead of just investing in Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham etc. Absolutely crazy. We the public got absolutely shafted.

The anti-London stuff is getting really boring. It would be pretty mad to build a high speed network that excluded by far the largest city and traffic generator in the land.

 

[The Planner]

Can't Crewe be rebuilt to plan, either only between the junctions, or with the junctions built but not laid?
Then start toward Manchester, relabeled as NPR

Its a massive NR renewal job that facilitates HS2, not a HS2 phase. If HS2 doesnt arrive then the vast majority, if not all of it, won't get built.

 

[Neen Sollars]

Between Birmingham and all the various HS2 destinations north of Birmingham, one presumes.

Of course! And the other non HS2 destinations and Scotland. It would all link with NPR, a fast midlands and north of England (and Scotland) rail network, now that would really feel like "Levelling Up".

 

[Meerkat]

Its a massive NR renewal job that facilitates HS2, not a HS2 phase. If HS2 doesnt arrive then the vast majority, if not all of it, won't get built.

But if something needs doing anyway how much more would they ask from UKG to do it to the HS2 plan?

 

[najaB]

"Prime Minister, if we delay HS2 now then the new Labour government will have to make the decision to carry on and then you can spend years accusing them of wasting vast sums of money.". "What and excellent idea, Sir Humphrey."

Exactly this. It just politics with the 2028 election in focus.

 

[domcoop7]

So the HS2 is definitely going to get cancelled according to posters on here, because it costs too much money and the evil fascist Tories hate the North, etc., etc., etc., etc.

But if we'd have started it at Manchester and Leeds, with Manchester running the exact same trains as today to Birmingham, just (possibly) 5 to 10 minutes faster and Leeds running, what? Diesel Cross Countries under the wires at 125MPH on a 350khp route?

That would have been better????? And wouldn't have got cancelled for being too much money?

I'm sorry, but that's just a ridiculous proposition. May as well build a 450kph ultra high speed maglev vaccum tube from Carlisle to Stranraer so it's ready for ultra high speed Belfast to Toulouse sleepers once the Northern Ireland Bridge gets built. That makes about as much sense.

 

[Killingworth]

History may record that the writing was on the wall for full completion of this project when the eastern leg via Meadowhall was rejected and a line via central Sheffield proposed. That change effectively meant Sheffield had shot itself in the foot and didn't do Leeds and Newcastle any favours either.

Maybe the latest pause can offer time and opportunity to more fully consider how to co-ordinate rail routes across Manchester city centre. An underground cross rail box beneath the centre would cost billions but offer best longer term benefits rather than tagging on a few more bits and pieces to the already overcrowded surface infrastructure.

 

[jfowkes]

But if we'd have started it at Manchester and Leeds, with Manchester running the exact same trains as today to Birmingham, just (possibly) 5 to 10 minutes faster and Leeds running, what? Diesel Cross Countries under the wires at 125MPH on a 350khp route?

Sorry, why in this scenario would it have the same rolling stock as today? Wouldn't it get new HS2 stock?

 

[dangie]

"Prime Minister, if we delay HS2 now then the new Labour government will have to make the decision to carry on and then you can spend years accusing them of wasting vast sums of money.". "What and excellent idea, Sir Humphrey."

Agree. The Tories are pretty certain they will loose the next General Election so consider this as a pre-emptive strike to help them return to power at the next one. All that matters is power not people.

 

[Wynd]

I was recently corrected for saying this would only go to Birmingham. Now Manchester is in serious doubt....but worst of all, Euston?!

Without a central London connection, from my very northerly perspective, this is a pointless exercise. OOC is miles away!

The most depressing part of all this, the effective scaling back, is that we now wont see a proper infrastructure project for decades, if not our lifetimes including for those of us under 40.

This is in no way something to celebrate and only further represents the decline of the State.

Whitehall couldn't grow a sunflower, let alone an economy.

 

[Jack Hay]

HS2 is investing in Birmingham - it's going to bring in a lot of urban regeneration, new jobs and increased rail capacity for local services. Just look at all of the multinationals which have recently opened offices in the city centre.

It will do the same for Manchester, Leeds etc by improving the links between the cities of the north.

Yes, northern and trans-pennine services need to be improved but as Andy Burnham has always said it is not a choice between that and HS2 and both are needed. A thriving Manchester Manchester would just put more strain on the WCML.

That's not what Andy Burnham has said, or is saying. He wants NPR but he is less bothered about HS2. He had said this at public meetings before and he said it to Robert Crampton when interviewed in The Times two weeks ago.

 

[Meerkat]

The most depressing part of all this, the effective scaling back, is that we now wont see a proper infrastructure project for decades, if not our lifetimes including for those of us under 40.

If the scaling back is to keep annual infrastructure spending in check then TRU and NPR can keep rolling even if HS2 fully stopped.

 

[mrmartin]

OOC isn't that bad. It has Elizabeth line connections which for many people are as good as Euston. It's definitely far from ideal, but for the city, CW and many other places it is easier or as easy to get to than Euston. But obviously long term it needs to go more central.

Personally I'd prefer crewe/manc being prioritised over the Euston link, but it's already started work on Euston so we should continue it.

 

[Wynd]

If the scaling back is to keep annual infrastructure spending in check then TRU and NPR can keep rolling even if HS2 fully stopped.

On what planet do HM Treasury can a major project to advance smaller ones?!

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OOC isn't that bad. It has Elizabeth line connections which for many people are as good as Euston. It's definitely far from ideal, but for the city, CW and many other places it is easier or as easy to get to than Euston. But obviously long term it needs to go more central.

Personally I'd prefer crewe/manc being prioritised over the Euston link, but it's already started work on Euston so we should continue it.

From Edinburgh or Aberdeen, why would I go to OOC to change, when I can just go direct to KGX or St Pancs?

I wouldn't, because the time saving is of a far lower priority than the hassle of having to go from west London in to London central.

I'm already travelling 4 plus hours, nearly 8 from Aberdeen, what's 20 mins at the other end, only to have to change on to Lizzie line.

Its small, but its another cut in the case for this whole project. Which is a shame, because it could have made a big difference to living in the UK.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If the scaling back is to keep annual infrastructure spending in check then TRU and NPR can keep rolling even if HS2 fully stopped.

No it can't, as the Liverpool-Manchester-Marsden NPR link depends on the HS2 route into Manchester.
There's also a decade and more of planning work gone into the HS2 route into Manchester, but next to none for NPR.

If HS2 doesn't reach Crewe, there's no need for the enhancements there (though some of the resignalling starts this year).
Inflation also impacts the Network Rail budget if the £96 billion IRP is fixed - it just buys less.

 

[mrmartin]

On what planet do HM Treasury can a major project to advance smaller ones?!

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From Edinburgh of Aberdeen, why would I go to OOC to change, when I can just go direct to KGX or St Pancs?

I wouldn't, because the time saving is of a far lower priority than the hassle of having to go from west London. I'm already travelling 4 plus hours, nearly 8 from Aberdeen, whats 20 mins at the other end, only to have to change on to Lizzie line.

Aint going to happen.

Of course if you are going to KGX that's the case, but most people aren't. If you're going to to CW it will take longer to get from KGX to Canary Wharf than OOC to CW. Same with Heathrow, etc.

 

[Meerkat]

On what planet do HM Treasury can a major project to advance smaller ones?!

When the major one is unpopular and the smaller ones are popular and fit levelling up better

No it can't, as the Liverpool-Manchester-Marsden NPR link depends on the HS2 route into Manchester.

Build it as NPR, with the link to Crewe.

If HS2 doesn't reach Crewe, there's no need for the enhancements there

It needs enhancing anyway doesn’t it?

 

[Winthorpe]

Gosh it’s depressing. It should have been built forty years ago. Just get on with it.

Same story with Heathrow expansion.

 

[Wynd]

When the major one is unpopular and the smaller ones are popular and fit levelling up better

This is a joke....right?

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Gosh it’s depressing. It should have been built forty years ago. Just get on with it.

It really is.

 

[Tezza1978]

HS2 line between Birmingham and Crewe delayed by two years

Government blames soaring construction prices but says it is "committed" to the high speed rail link.

www.bbc.co.uk

As I kinda expected, it's definitely going to Birmingham and likely never any further.

Disagree. Yes there are bound to be delays to 2a and 2b as this article states but I simply don't believe that its going to be left as an OOC to Birmingham route, when so much work has gone on at Euston already and as 2a costs are significantly lower and offer a lot of bang for buck. Maybe 2b gets incorporated into NPR instead but I think thats very unlikely.

Whatever's people's opinions are on how much in favour Starmer /Burnham are of it..... its an open goal to attack the government on this if there is no commitment to build the other phases, when its going to be in their manifesto that Labour will complete it.

 

[HSTEd]

Whatever's people's opinions are on how much in favour Starmer /Burnham are of it..... its an open goal to attack the government on this if there is no commitment to build the other phases, when its going to be in their manifesto that Labour will complete it.

Any manifesto promise will be worded to make it meaningless, just like those "missions" of Starmers.

It will be kicked into the long grass in favour of day to day spending on things that can be used to buy votes - like the triple lock.

 

[Killingworth]

Gosh it’s depressing. It should have been built forty years ago. Just get on with it.

Same story with Heathrow expansion.

Digressing onto roads, but at the TfN meeting in Newcastle on Monday I heard talk of completing dualling of the A1 between Newcastle and Berwick, but especially the section that's still single carriageway between Morpeth and Alnwick. The first 3 mile section of that was just being started in 1939 and was completed in the early 1950s, some 70 years ago. (My father drove us along it when new telling how when he was young it may have still been being tarred.) Pauses are nothing new on British capital projects and can become very protracted!

 

[camflyer]

Gosh it’s depressing. It should have been built forty years ago. Just get on with it.

Same story with Heathrow expansion.

Last week I was talking to an American in one of the bars at Heathrow during yet another delay how there had been plans for another runway for years but it just kept getting delayed. With airport passenger numbers almost back to the pre-COVID normal it's time to "get on with it" though I suspect that with an election coming up it will be kicked further into the long grass. While far from the worst airport in the world, Heathrow still is an embarrassment to international visitors.

Anyway, back on topic, I agree that a whole GB high speed network should have been built over the past 40 years at the same time European countries were building theirs and that is a failure of all recent governments.

 

[ainsworth74]

Classic HM Treasury dogma. Let's save some money from our in year budgets over the next couple of years and who gives a damn that the overall cost will rise substantially let alone, for a project like this, the opportunity costs from the economic activity that will now never happen. Same nonsense with the aircraft carriers. Drag out the build making the in year budget look better and who cares that it means the total spend blows through the planned budget? The Treasury will happily manage the UK straight into the ground just so long as that is the cheapest short term option. See my signature for more on my feelings about HM Treasury and I see no reason to change that opinion!

 

[Winthorpe]

For the record, I’m a keep public spending sensible person. But these infrastructure projects are desperately needed. And they pay off over centuries.

Classic problem of accounting profit versus economic profit.

Build it. Get on with it.

 

[The Planner]

But if something needs doing anyway how much more would they ask from UKG to do it to the HS2 plan?

A lot...

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It needs enhancing anyway doesn’t it?

Not to deliver the current service no.

 

[Wynd]

Classic HM Treasury dogma. Let's save some money from our in year budgets over the next couple of years and who gives a damn that the overall cost will rise substantially let alone, for a project like this, the opportunity costs from the economic activity that will now never happen.

Correct.

The Treasury will happily manage the UK straight into the ground just so long as that is the cheapest short term option. See my signature for more on my feelings about HM Treasury and I see no reason to change that opinion!

Even more correct. You cannot cut your way to growth.

The Treasury are utterly unfit to run the UK economy.