I don’t think the full EWR as planned to Bedford was ever big enough to justify its own mini-TOC,
I would agree especially as it would share significant route mileage with the existing Bedford to Bletchley service
and don’t even think extending to Cambridge makes any real difference.
Depends how the service would be resourced. I would say Bletchley being broadly in the middle (or maybe Bedford) would be better than Oxford or Cambridge as you would have an imbalance of services similar to the Sheffield to Lincoln serevice which has an early start but also early finish from Sheffield where as Lincoln is late start and late finish (unless you operate from both ends - see below).
The original DFT suggestion was probably paying lip service to those who want competition at all costs, and helping with their original agenda that there were better people than Network Rail to organise the route and it’s eventual services. As it turned out NR remained fully involved, so it’s hardly a surprise a normal TOC is going to as well.
Seems highly likely though I doubt NR hasn't helped itself on the face of it with the May 2018 TT shambles in goverment circles.
Part of it is that Chiltern already operate Oxford-Bicester and Aylesbury so MK-Oxford is more naturally on their 'patch'.
Aylesbury has no link with EWR currently and indeed I'm not even sure Chiltern used it when there was one via the former Claydon LNE Jn for their Oxford services ECS moves. Bicester to Oxford is a smaller section than Bedford to Bletchley shared with WMR.
Given that's the primary service, tucking the Bedford-Oxford in with that also makes sense. Chiltern have potential depot facilities at Oxford and Aylesbury as well as Bletchley having space for a separate EWR depot.
Minimal at Oxford I'd say given most of their start of day and end of day ECS moves come from Banbury rather than starting Oxford.
It's also that Chiltern are among the smaller franchises so these services will also give them a slightly bigger 'base' and giving it to LNR would be increasing the gap rather than promoting some element of competition.
If you want on route competition then perhaps having the depots at Oxford and Cambridge with GWR and either XC or GA at the Cambridge end and they share the route.
With Phases 2 and 3 It's hardly unusual for services to extend into other TOC's territory, with EMR operating to Liverpool, Southern operating to MK, and TPE operating to Edinburgh.
TPE do have a depot in Scotland now (either Glasgow or Edinburgh) but with both Southern and EMR it resulted in late starts at the non-depot end and early finishes at the depot end if the depot is at one end as I have alluded to above. My view is Bletchley or Bedford would be a better place from a customer point of view being near the middle of the route and both have train crew and depot facilities..
EWR wouldn't justify it's own mini-TOC.
Maybe not but then of course small TOCs do have a significantly better focus than bigger ones on their markets.
