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How would the U.K. need to adapt if the railway system were abolished?

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Bletchleyite

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The phrase “traditional working class” should not be used in the same breath as references to the current Tory government, and their policies, of course. They’re about as far away from that as it’s possible to get.

I completely agree. The present "Tory" Government is not in fact a Tory, or Conservative, one, it's a curiously self-serving, high tax, populist right-wing one which has more in common with e.g. UKIP than Thatcherism or even traditional Conservatism.

I can see why some traditional working-class went for Thatcherism, with its promise of home and car ownership and more of your own money to spend, but Sunakism (if that's a word) is nothing like Thatcherism.
 
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stuu

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There are many, many others - Farringdon Road for example has been reduced to 1 lane rather than 1 lane and 1 bus lane. Parts of Euston Road have been narrowed. Notting Hill Gate's another. I believe parts of the A40 have as well.

Speeds have never been high in central London - even as far back as the 1930s, but there is no effort to improve it.
What proportion of the roads do you think that amounts to? As much as 5%?
 

zwk500

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but Sunakism (if that's a word) is nothing like Thatcherism.
Sunakism doesn't exist, he's done nothing of his own mind (not necessarily his own fault, he was handed a house on fire). The government ideology is best summed up as a Bully's playground, courtesy of Boris.
 

A0wen

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You again miss the wider economic impact that rail makes, which goes well beyond those who actually use it. Billions will continue to be spent on it whether you like it or not, because no political party is delusional enough to think that not subsidising the railway would be in anyway acceptable.

I really don't - which is why I've said several times focusing the railways on freight makes alot of sense. Carting fresh air around rural parts of the UK really doesn't.

And I don't sense an appetite from any of the major political parties to spend more on the rail network. Labour want to "renationalise" it, whatever that may look like, but have failed to explain why that's beneficial, who benefits and how they'll contain the costs. After all, the already nationalised bit of the rail network, Network Rail, isn't exactly known for its cost efficiency or on time, on budget delivery of major projects.

Well that might be your view, but it isn’t how the system works. I don’t want to have to pay for your kids’ state education or your NHS costs, yet I still have to. Being a “net contributor”, or not, is neither here nor there.

Or to put it another way - you're paying for your own healthcare and education - and its eminently possible you haven't yet covered those costs.

It was discussed on another thread, and the consensus appeared to be that closing individual lines won’t realise significant savings - hence many of is would favour preserving them and looking to grow passenger numbers. The cost is tiny in the scheme of things, and once the infrastructure is gone it is lost forever - many lines in the Southeast closed during the beaching era would doubtless be very well used now.

You also singularly fail to acknowledge the fact that government policy towards the railway: prolonging the industrial dispute; insisting on service cuts; failing to allow fares reform may well be costing more in terms of subsidy. It’s fine to agree with their stance for ideological reasons, but you can’t legitimately claim it is rooted in any concern about public money. That is as dishonest as they what the government is currently doing: dressing up an anti state, anti public service political agenda as concern for fiscal prudence.

The South East lost relatively few lines to Beeching - and quite alot of those which people claim were Beeching of course closed long before his report or in the years after his departure so were BR initiated.

On the second point - the industrial dispute, ironically, is keeping costs down, as people on strike don't get paid. And if passengers are travelling using air, coach or car, then they'll be contributing to the exchequer via the various taxes those forms of transport attract.

There is clearly a case for reviewing services - I gave this example elsewhere quite recently - I went to Nuneaton from Northampton where I live for a meal on a Friday night. Both trains up (change at Rugby) were fairly full having originated in the London evening peak. The return (last train from Nuneaton and one of the last from Rugby to Northampton) were a different matter. The Nuneaton train had a handful of people on it. The Northampton train (ex Birmingham) was barely 1/4 full when it arrived at Rugby. Now, whilst there may be some case about ensuring trains end their day at certain places etc - is carting around fresh air like that a good use of resource ? What if the last train had been an hour earlier ? Or replaced by a bus at much lower cost ?
Many of us will question why, when taxes are already high, the government can afford to abolish the lifetime pension allowance. That is also not fiscally prudent, it’s being done purely to appeal to their voter base.

The biggest proponents for that change were the British Medical Association who were arguing that the effect of the current restrictions meant doctors were retiring from NHS service.

And addressing that couldn't be limited to just the public sector - the public sector already get massively preferential pension schemes whereas private sector pensions were pillaged by Gordon Brown.

This is simply factually incorrect when viewed as a % of government spending.

Set against total government spending, no doubt. But lets narrow it down and look at transport spending. As slide 5 points out "Most of DfT’s budget is for the railways, and Network Rail in particular" https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons/scrutiny/dft-slides-me2021-22.pdf

Rail spending dwarfs spending on pretty much every other form of transport spending.

I completely agree. The present "Tory" Government is not in fact a Tory, or Conservative, one, it's a curiously self-serving, high tax, populist right-wing one which has more in common with e.g. UKIP than Thatcherism or even traditional Conservatism.

I can see why some traditional working-class went for Thatcherism, with its promise of home and car ownership and more of your own money to spend, but Sunakism (if that's a word) is nothing like Thatcherism.

Not sure how high tax and high spending have somehow become "right wing"......
 

Bletchleyite

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Sunakism doesn't exist, he's done nothing of his own mind (not necessarily his own fault, he was handed a house on fire). The government ideology is best summed up as a Bully's playground, courtesy of Boris.

Yes and no. Sunak appears to be to the right of Boris. (The whole thing is quite curious - a Government with a load of ministers who are children of relatively recent immigrants enacting policies that would have stopped their own parents coming here).
 

lachlan

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I really don't - which is why I've said several times focusing the railways on freight makes alot of sense. Carting fresh air around rural parts of the UK really doesn't.

And I don't sense an appetite from any of the major political parties to spend more on the rail network. Labour want to "renationalise" it, whatever that may look like, but have failed to explain why that's beneficial, who benefits and how they'll contain the costs. After all, the already nationalised bit of the rail network, Network Rail, isn't exactly known for its cost efficiency or on time, on budget delivery of major projects.



Or to put it another way - you're paying for your own healthcare and education - and its eminently possible you haven't yet covered those costs.



The South East lost relatively few lines to Beeching - and quite alot of those which people claim were Beeching of course closed long before his report or in the years after his departure so were BR initiated.

On the second point - the industrial dispute, ironically, is keeping costs down, as people on strike don't get paid. And if passengers are travelling using air, coach or car, then they'll be contributing to the exchequer via the various taxes those forms of transport attract.

There is clearly a case for reviewing services - I gave this example elsewhere quite recently - I went to Nuneaton from Northampton where I live for a meal on a Friday night. Both trains up (change at Rugby) were fairly full having originated in the London evening peak. The return (last train from Nuneaton and one of the last from Rugby to Northampton) were a different matter. The Nuneaton train had a handful of people on it. The Northampton train (ex Birmingham) was barely 1/4 full when it arrived at Rugby. Now, whilst there may be some case about ensuring trains end their day at certain places etc - is carting around fresh air like that a good use of resource ? What if the last train had been an hour earlier ? Or replaced by a bus at much lower cost ?


The biggest proponents for that change were the British Medical Association who were arguing that the effect of the current restrictions meant doctors were retiring from NHS service.

And addressing that couldn't be limited to just the public sector - the public sector already get massively preferential pension schemes whereas private sector pensions were pillaged by Gordon Brown.



Set against total government spending, no doubt. But lets narrow it down and look at transport spending. As slide 5 points out "Most of DfT’s budget is for the railways, and Network Rail in particular" https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons/scrutiny/dft-slides-me2021-22.pdf

Rail spending dwarfs spending on pretty much every other form of transport spending.



Not sure how high tax and high spending have somehow become "right wing"......
On your example on reviewing services, evidently that late service needs to be there to allow you to get home and without it you wouldn’t have been able to travel at all. There will always be some lesser used services but they’re important for mobility for non car users and to make rail an attractive and flexible option.
 

Bletchleyite

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On your example on reviewing services, evidently that late service needs to be there to allow you to get home and without it you wouldn’t have been able to travel at all. There will always be some lesser used services but they’re important for mobility for non car users and to make rail an attractive and flexible option.

It's probably also the case that those trains were running as 8-car for ease of operation (taking 4 off just because one service is a bit quiet is a faff and costs more than running a long train), had the "quarter full" train been a 4-car it would have felt quite busy.
 

zwk500

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Yes and no. Sunak appears to be to the right of Boris. (The whole thing is quite curious - a Government with a load of ministers who are children of relatively recent immigrants enacting policies that would have stopped their own parents coming here).
Sunak isn't in control of the party. Look a the ongoing Natcon conference - the idea that the home secretary would be speaking at a splinter group like that would have been unthinkable under Cameron.
 

stuu

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Set against total government spending, no doubt. But lets narrow it down and look at transport spending. As slide 5 points out "Most of DfT’s budget is for the railways, and Network Rail in particular" https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons/scrutiny/dft-slides-me2021-22.pdf
That's opex. Most opex on the roads is paid for by private people. Not only that but also covid was still a thing, so the railways were being heavily supported

The capex figure on the same slide is more relevant. Which is only national expenditure and doesn't include local councils or devolved administrations. The road investment budget is slightly higher than the Network Rail budget
 

Grimsby town

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You're right, the railways aren't free - they're bloody expensive for the taxpayer, the vast majority of whom don't regularly use them. Which is why comparisons with the NHS or Education are invalid because those are things the majority of people use.

This is a silly statement. A quick Google search shows that on average there a 10 contacts with the NHS per person per year. There's 22 trips by rail per person per year. A majority of people use the railways within any given year. A majority of people don't use education in any given year. Plenty of people go long periods without using the NHS too while some people have contact every day.

Of course nearly everbody will use state education or the NHS during there lives. I'd be pretty shocked though if the % of people in the UK who use the rail network within their life time isn't also in the high 90s. This is before we go into indirect impacts. My mum doesn't use rail often but as I don't drive she'd likely have to travel more to see me or see me less if there was no rail network. So there is a personal benefit to her even if it's indirect. Its also a proven fact that people who don't use the rail network derive a benefit from the railway being available should they need to use it for whatever reason.
 

Western Lord

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But if commuting is the purpose of these stations - which it is - then its proximity to the town centre is pretty irrelevant. More relevant is its proximity to the housing areas where people live.

And that's not unique to 'New Towns' - @zwk500 has cited Hitchin - Hitchin station is a distance away from the town centre and always has been.
Harlow Town station is on the northern edge of the town, there is nothing but countryside to the north and it is a long way from most of the housing areas, especially the southern part of the town. Similarly Hemel Hempstead station is on the southern edge of the town with nothing much to the south of it. Commuting was not considered to be important when the New Towns were developed, which is why Basildon didn't have a station at all.

This is a silly statement. A quick Google search shows that on average there a 10 contacts with the NHS per person per year. There's 22 trips by rail per person per year. A majority of people use the railways within any given year. A majority of people don't use education in any given year. Plenty of people go long periods without using the NHS too while some people have contact every day.

Of course nearly everbody will use state education or the NHS during there lives. I'd be pretty shocked though if the % of people in the UK who use the rail network within their life time isn't also in the high 90s. This is before we go into indirect impacts. My mum doesn't use rail often but as I don't drive she'd likely have to travel more to see me or see me less if there was no rail network. So there is a personal benefit to her even if it's indirect. Its also a proven fact that people who don't use the rail network derive a benefit from the railway being available should they need to use it for whatever reason.
This is an even sillier statement. The idea that everybody in the country makes 22 trips by rail every year is laughable. The vast majority of people don't get on a train from one years end to the next. You cannot take rail journeys and divide by the population figure. Some people use trains every day, most don't use trains at all.
 
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A0wen

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Sunak isn't in control of the party. Look a the ongoing Natcon conference - the idea that the home secretary would be speaking at a splinter group like that would have been unthinkable under Cameron.

Erm, under Cameron you had ministers, including the DPM who weren't even members of the Conservative party, let alone attending a conference for one element of the party.

Yes and no. Sunak appears to be to the right of Boris. (The whole thing is quite curious - a Government with a load of ministers who are children of relatively recent immigrants enacting policies that would have stopped their own parents coming here).

Bit in bold - both lazy and wrong.

Last time I checked, none of their parents tried to enter the UK illegally - and paying a criminal smuggling gang to ship you across the channel is most definitely illegal.

If you bother to check, you'll find their parents are mostly East African Asians - certainly the case for Priti Patel, Suella Braverman and Rishi Sunak - and in the 1960s an 1970s Asians were being persecuted in East Africa, notably in Uganda but in other countries as well. The UK offered safe passage for Asians from those places, in the same way more recently safe passage has been available for those from Hong Kong, Afghanistan and Ukraine.
This is a silly statement. A quick Google search shows that on average there a 10 contacts with the NHS per person per year. There's 22 trips by rail per person per year. A majority of people use the railways within any given year. A majority of people don't use education in any given year. Plenty of people go long periods without using the NHS too while some people have contact every day.

Of course nearly everbody will use state education or the NHS during there lives. I'd be pretty shocked though if the % of people in the UK who use the rail network within their life time isn't also in the high 90s. This is before we go into indirect impacts. My mum doesn't use rail often but as I don't drive she'd likely have to travel more to see me or see me less if there was no rail network. So there is a personal benefit to her even if it's indirect. Its also a proven fact that people who don't use the rail network derive a benefit from the railway being available should they need to use it for whatever reason.

You'll need to provide figures for that to see what basis those figures for the NHS are on. Because the reality is if you have a repeat prescription, you are using the NHS every time you collect one, if you have a dental check up and it's an NHS dentist, you're using the NHS.

On Education - I hope you spent at least 10 years of your life in full time education - therefore you have already used the education system significantly by the time you reach adulthood - probably moreso than you will ever use the rail network.

On your example on reviewing services, evidently that late service needs to be there to allow you to get home and without it you wouldn’t have been able to travel at all. There will always be some lesser used services but they’re important for mobility for non car users and to make rail an attractive and flexible option.

The reality is carting fresh air around isn't good for the environment, however it's done. So trains which are less than 30% full should be reviewed. And if that means curtailing services earlier that's a reasonable compromise.

Harlow Town station is on the northern edge of the town, there is nothing but countryside to the north and it is a long way from most of the housing areas, especially the southern part of the town. Similarly Hemel Hempstead station is on the southern edge of the town with nothing much to the south of it. Commuting was not considered to be important when the New Towns were developed, which is why Basildon didn't have a station at all.

To an extent that's because the way those towns were built - the railway ran along one edge rather than development being spread on both sides. Though in the case of Hemel and probably Harlow there are geographic and geological reasons why that might have been the case.

This is an even sillier statement. The idea that everybody in the country makes 22 trips by rail every year is laughable. The vast majority of people don't get on a train from one years end to the next. You cannot take rail journeys and divide by the population figure. Some people use trains every day, most don't use trains at all.

To a point, you're right - but if you're trying to estimate the %age of the population which uses the rail network you've got to start somewhere.

My approach would be take the number of passenger journeys a quarter (461m in Q4 2019 - ORR) - divide that by 12 (number of weeks a quarter), divide by 6 (I know there are 7 days a week, but we'll use 6 to allow for holidays etc), which gives you a 'daily' number - that's 6.4m people. The country has a population of ~ 70 million, so that's about 9%. The majority of rail users are regular users i.e. commuting or regular travel to a specific place, so then you've got to make a judgement call on the 91% of the population how many of those will make a rail journey over the year.
 
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lachlan

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The reality is carting fresh air around isn't good for the environment, however it's done. So trains which are less than 30% full should be reviewed. And if that means curtailing services earlier that's a reasonable compromise.
This will result in more car journeys, with a detrimental environmental impact, and limiting of mobility for folks who can’t drive. Removing late trains may increase drink driving too as people have no other option for getting home. Remember that public transport is a public service too and while it does benefit the environment, that is not its sole purpose.
 

Bletchleyite

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This will result in more car journeys, with a detrimental environmental impact, and limiting of mobility for folks who can’t drive. Removing late trains may increase drink driving too as people have no other option for getting home. Remember that public transport is a public service too and while it does benefit the environment, that is not its sole purpose.

It needs to be borne in mind that a later journey even if not actually used may be contributory to rail being used earlier on. That's the idea of the German timetabled taxis - Anruf-Sammel-Taxi - you often get on quieter urban bus routes.
 

A0wen

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This will result in more car journeys, with a detrimental environmental impact, and limiting of mobility for folks who can’t drive. Removing late trains may increase drink driving too as people have no other option for getting home. Remember that public transport is a public service too and while it does benefit the environment, that is not its sole purpose.

Bit in bold - Oh, not this again.....

If you can afford to go out and get drunk, you can afford to get a taxi home.

The vast majority of people who go out drinking do so locally i.e. in the town they live in, so the train is an irrelevance in most cases.

And it's not environmentally friendly to run trains or buses around which are empty. Far better for people to use taxis in that case.
 

Grimsby town

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You'll need to provide figures for that to see what basis those figures for the NHS are on. Because the reality is if you have a repeat prescription, you are using the NHS every time you collect one, if you have a dental check up and it's an NHS dentist, you're using the NHS.

On Education - I hope you spent at least 10 years of your life in full time education - therefore you have already used the education system significantly by the time you reach adulthood

Are you using the NHS though. Pharmacies are privately owned and most people pay for perceptions some people are even paying more than their medication costs. In similar vein are you using the rail system everytime you enter rail owned land? I'd say not.

I think you are just being pedantic for the sake of it. The railways aren't costing the tax payer anywhere near what health or education cost the tax payer. In non-covid years the cost of the railways to the tax payer is less than £10bn. You can show the stats in many different ways. E.g. Time in your life spent using a service, number of uses as a service and % of population using a service in a given year. They all show different usage levels. The NHS and education are probably more important than the railways but that is reflected in the fact they consume far more resources. However its ignorant and wrong to say that the population doesn't derive benefits from the rail network even if they don't use it. There's no appetite for large scale rail closures from the population at the end of the day.

Coming back to the question what would the UK look like without railways, some american cities provide a very good idea of what it'd be like. There'd be far more congestion and longer journey times and more land take. Public transport would likely be more difficult to use and therfore only used by those who have no other choices. Having been to LA and Las Vegas and done the majority of a trip without a car and say for certain that the UK is better with a rail network. Using public transport in LA was an uncomfortable experience and involved incredibly long journey times due to the sheer distances created by wide roads.
 

Bletchleyite

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Bit in bold - Oh, not this again.....

If you can afford to go out and get drunk, you can afford to get a taxi home.

The vast majority of people who go out drinking do so locally i.e. in the town they live in, so the train is an irrelevance in most cases.

Given that you live in the South East you must surely be familiar with the fact that going into London to do things involving the consumption of alcohol is a very common practice engaged in by tens of thousands of people every Saturday evening (at least) in particular.

A taxi from Euston to Northampton must run at well over two hundred quid, so I think this is just fallacious.

Look at the parade of 8 and 12-car services between about 2200 and midnight out of Euston on a Saturday evening. They're not carrying fresh air, they're full and standing, and aren't called the "vomit comets" for nowt.

Coming back to the question what would the UK look like without railways, some american cities provide a very good idea of what it'd be like. There'd be far more congestion and longer journey times and more land take. Public transport would likely be more difficult to use and therfore only used by those who have no other choices. Having been to LA and Las Vegas and done the majority of a trip without a car and say for certain that the UK is better with a rail network. Using public transport in LA was an uncomfortable experience and involved incredibly long journey times due to the sheer distances created by wide roads.

Milton Keynes does too. It has the WCML, but it's mostly used for long distance travel and not inbound commuting. Almost all travel in, to and around MK is done by car, taxi or bicycle; the bus service is poor and very lightly used, and has appalling coverage.

Perhaps without any railway at all we'd have needed to demolish traditional city centres and make them look more like that. Which seems unthinkable now, but it wasn't in the 60s.
 

A0wen

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Given that you live in the South East you must surely be familiar with the fact that going into London to do things involving the consumption of alcohol is a very common practice engaged in by tens of thousands of people every Saturday evening (at least) in particular.

A taxi from Euston to Northampton must run at well over two hundred quid, so I think this is just fallacious.



Milton Keynes does too. It has the WCML, but it's mostly used for long distance travel and not inbound commuting. Almost all travel in, to and around MK is done by car, taxi or bicycle; the bus service is poor and very lightly used, and has appalling coverage.

The *vast majority* of people who go drinking do so locally, so stop bringing edge cases up which in the greater scheme of things are irrelevant.

Yes, there are people who go into London to meet up and have a few drinks - though in that case they might just as well stay in a Travelodge over night and not have to worry about getting the late train back. And the bigger risk is they'll drive back from the station when over the limit.
 

Bletchleyite

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The *vast majority* of people who go drinking do so locally, so stop bringing edge cases up which in the greater scheme of things are irrelevant.

Yes, there are people who go into London to meet up and have a few drinks - though in that case they might just as well stay in a Travelodge over night and not have to worry about getting the late train back. And the bigger risk is they'll drive back from the station when over the limit.

Other than for organised stuff like stag dos, people very rarely stay over in London from a place half an hour from it by train. With the price of even basic hotels in London running close to the hefty cost of a taxi back, this is a bizarre statement.

I question if you live in the same South East I do at times.
 

zwk500

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The *vast majority* of people who go drinking do so locally, so stop bringing edge cases up which in the greater scheme of things are irrelevant.

Yes, there are people who go into London to meet up and have a few drinks - though in that case they might just as well stay in a Travelodge over night and not have to worry about getting the late train back.
Judging by the post 22:00 trains out of Euston, going into London for drinks is not an edge case by any stretch of the imagination, and very few people are going to consider paying for a travelodge for a few drinks in the evenings.
And the bigger risk is they'll drive back from the station when over the limit.
Yes.
 

stuu

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This is an even sillier statement. The idea that everybody in the country makes 22 trips by rail every year is laughable. The vast majority of people don't get on a train from one years end to the next. You cannot take rail journeys and divide by the population figure. Some people use trains every day, most don't use trains at all.
Pre-covid the figure was ~60% of the population use a train at least once a year, so the majority do have some level of interaction with the rail network.

But yes, most journeys aren't by train, however also most journeys aren't even sensibly done by train as most journeys (72%) are less than 5 miles
 

Bletchleyite

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Judging by the post 22:00 trains out of Euston, going into London for drinks is not an edge case by any stretch of the imagination, and very few people are going to consider paying for a travelodge for a few drinks in the evenings.

Though to be fair @A0wen does have a *slight* point in that if the last train was say 2210 instead of 0010, people would just go out earlier. It would prevent other things like evening theatre trips though.
 

lachlan

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Though to be fair @A0wen does have a *slight* point in that if the last train was say 2210 instead of 0010, people would just go out earlier. It would prevent other things like evening theatre trips though.
being a non driver I have previously been limited in things I can attend due to the lack of late night trains.

I’m now looking at staying in a hostel once a week because I have something to attend one evening and the last train from Bristol to Chippenham is at 10pm.
 

zwk500

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Though to be fair @A0wen does have a *slight* point in that if the last train was say 2210 instead of 0010, people would just go out earlier. It would prevent other things like evening theatre trips though.
Things like theatre/cinema trips are incredibly important to a decent section of the entry-level economy. Especially with London capacities and volume of shows, the number of people having dinner and then going for a show then staying for a drink are very important to the hospitality sector, which is where the majority of people get their starts in their careers.
 

stuu

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Though to be fair @A0wen does have a *slight* point in that if the last train was say 2210 instead of 0010, people would just go out earlier. It would prevent other things like evening theatre trips though.
I suspect lots wouldn't bother if the last train was so early... That also ignores people who work in the evenings
 

Bletchleyite

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I suspect lots wouldn't bother if the last train was so early...

I think they probably would, they'd just start earlier. The "vomit comets" out of Liverpool for instance have the last train around 2200.

That also ignores people who work in the evenings

True, though few people on those trains will be doing so. Hospitality jobs are very low-wage, as a result of which London commuting to do them is pretty much unknown. There are other evening jobs of course - the 03xx MKC-Euston is mostly full of Tube workers - but other provisions could be made for such people.

To be clear I don't support moving the last train out of Euston earlier, not least because the current ones are well used! However I do think it's right to accept where @A0wen's argument is right (the other one being that for most people flying to Scotland will be quicker than the train), because that helps us argue against the majority of his line of argument which is wrong.
 

urbophile

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A commitment to radical green policies (which strangely enough always seem to involve radical socialism) is likely to completely destroy the economy,
Whereas the opposite is certain to destroy the world. Be careful what you wish for.
 

Bletchleyite

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Whereas the opposite is certain to destroy the world. Be careful what you wish for.

Like most things neither is really true. A moderate middle ground is the pragmatic way to move towards a zero carbon future. Policies like nuclear power, HS2, electrified commuter railways and electric cars.
 

A0wen

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Things like theatre/cinema trips are incredibly important to a decent section of the entry-level economy. Especially with London capacities and volume of shows, the number of people having dinner and then going for a show then staying for a drink are very important to the hospitality sector, which is where the majority of people get their starts in their careers.

I think you need to separate theatre i.e West End in London from cinema. If you live in Hemel, Luton or Stevenage, let alone Milton Keynes, Bedford or Northampton, you're not going to go to London to go to the cinema, not when all of those places have at least one multiplex cinema chain locally.

If you're travelling more than an hour, people will often opt for a matinee show rather than an evening one, not least because if the show finishes at 10, you've then got to get to whichever terminus you're heading back from - and if we look at the WCML from Euston then the journeys are incredibly slow - the 2237 from Euston to Northampton takes almost 90 minutes getting you back into Northampton after mid-night. It's much easier to have a matinee show, go for a meal afterwards and then get a train about 9pm.
 

Bletchleyite

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If you're travelling more than an hour, people will often opt for a matinee show rather than an evening one, not least because if the show finishes at 10, you've then got to get to whichever terminus you're heading back from - and if we look at the WCML from Euston then the journeys are incredibly slow - the 2237 from Euston to Northampton takes almost 90 minutes getting you back into Northampton after mid-night. It's much easier to have a matinee show, go for a meal afterwards and then get a train about 9pm.

It might be that that extra 20-30 minutes does influence your decision (the 2309, a more likely choice, is an "all but Bushey, Apsley, Kings Langley and Cheddington" run and is 10 minutes quicker than the one you cited which is probably a bit early for the theatre anyway), but I can guarantee you that people from Bletchley and MK (and definitely places south of there like Berko and Tring) do indeed do evening theatre trips to London, with matinees mostly being for kids and older people who don't like being out late. I have done it multiple times myself and I know plenty of other people who have.

I've even done weekday evening drinking after work and ended up on the 0134 on a weekday, though that train to be fair is very quiet, you probably could get away with removing that and the 03xx return without annoying *too* many people, though there would be some who would have to give up London Underground jobs if they did, the 03xx is typically full of London Underground uniforms.
 
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