SouthEastern fleet replacement updates

[Wolfie]

Personally I don't think the Networkers need replacement, they just need the sort of major refurb the 455s got.

The 707s will allow the worst ones to be scrapped and provide a buffer to allow units to be taken out of service and refurbed.

Of course, the need to keep factories open might tip the balance towards replacement.

The Networkers use much more complicated electronics than the 455s ever did. The problem is that much of them are reportedly obsolescent if not obsolete.

 

[Mikey C]

The Networkers use much more complicated electronics than the 455s ever did. The problem is that much of them are reportedly obsolescent if not obsolete.

The BREL/Brush ones had new Hitachi traction fitted, would they be better?

And isn't the GEC equipment on the Met Cam ones similar to the Jubilee Line trains?

 

[Samzino]

The cost factor of refurbing the traction on the Met Cam units being 466, 465/2 and 9s would cost too much aswell as the timefactor due to the amount of parts that are obsolete as one has said.

 

[4BEP]

Still reckon govt will insist the Networkers carry on and they'll get to 40 years in service before replacement.

Wouldn't be surprised if they don't see any refurb either.

Surely it's cheaper to lease 30 year old stock for another 5-10 years than new given the era of cheap finance is over even accounting for reliability?

It is the Government, via the DfT which is currently running Southeastern, that has initiated the call for expressions of interest for fleet replacement, so not much chance of Networkers being retained any longer the necessary.

 

[JonathanH]

It is the Government, via the DfT which is currently running Southeastern, that has initiated the call for expressions of interest for fleet replacement, so not much chance of Networkers being retained any longer the necessary.

Yes, but the outcome will depend on whether the new fleet, or keeping Networkers, is better value for money. The replacement isn't guaranteed at any cost.

 

[Mikey C]

Politically, the government won't want to see factories close because of a lack of orders, so while the Treasury might want to tighten the purse strings, other department will have different priorities...

 

[brad465]

Politically, the government won't want to see factories close because of a lack of orders, so while the Treasury might want to tighten the purse strings, other department will have different priorities...

Also if visible cutbacks are politically unpopular, a new SE fleet order could be used to try and counter the argument and show investment is still being made, particularly with existing fleet orders/replacements nearing completion.

 

[4BEP]

But a refurbishment for the 376s has already been confirmed...

How? Southeastern have two large fleets, the 375s and Networkers. The Class 376 is often described as a microfleet despite having more units than the 395s, which I have yet to see anyone describe as a microfleet. Plus, the 376s and 377s share many parts with the large 375 fleet (and the main 377 fleet since the 377s are maintained at Selhurst). The Class 707s are currently a microfleet but once all of them are transferred will be a larger fleet than the 395s. If we're planning on cutting down SE's fleet based on fleet sizes and differences from the rest of the fleet, the Class 395s would be the ones to go, proving how ridiculous the SE microfleet argument is.

The 395s are not a micro fleet, in fact High Speed is the only part of the business operating a single fleet.

 

[Mikey C]

The 395s are not a micro fleet, in fact High Speed is the only part of the business operating a single fleet.

If anything SE could do with a few more 395s or more realistically something more related to the current production 80x, which would create a micro fleet...

 

[Wivenswold]

Expect announcements of big train orders from around January 2024, I fully expect factories in or near to "Red wall" Tory seats to be the major beneficiaries. So Hitachi, Siemens and Alstom will likely get the orders. I also expect it to be part of a glamourous sounding pledge to remove all ex-BR stock by 2030.
Not a political dig, it's just what happens around elections. In a parallel universe where climate change is being taken seriously there's a lot of old BR EMUs running round newly electrified rural lines and brand new lines as part of a push to get the country off the roads and onto trains. Which is a political dig, but at all of them.

 

[JonathanH]

Not a political dig, it's just what happens around elections.

Sometimes those pledges get cancelled following the election when the books are analysed.

 

[Meerkat]

Sometimes those pledges get cancelled following the election when the books are analysed.

Cynically the Tories could throw in a few poison pills that will almost inevitably have to be cancelled.
of course if they are as in business pockets as some allege then signing a load of long leases with tough cancellation clauses will annoy the nationalising idealists and please the city.
a huge southeastern deal would fit the bill

 

[4BEP]

No, unless Hitachi offer the AT200 (even if the AT100 would be more appropriate). That said, an AT200 could replace the 377s more acceptably than a 465/9.

Siemens or Hitachi could.

 

[James Finch]

Any update on this?

 

[JonathanH]

Any update on this?

No. It isn't common to get an ongoing dialogue about fleet renewal.

 

[James Finch]

No. It isn't common to get an ongoing dialogue about fleet renewal.

Makes sense. Can't remember if this has been mentioned before, but what is the likelihood that DfT (via OLR) actually choose new stock over a measly fleet upgrade - "public finances are tight" and all that?

 

[Mollman]

Makes sense. Can't remember if this has been mentioned before, but what is the likelihood that DfT (via OLR) actually choose new stock over a measly fleet upgrade - "public finances are tight" and all that?

With an election next year and the likelihood of UK based factories announcing threat to jobs due to lack of demand (see Roger Ford's latest Modern Railways article), I would expect this to actually be new stock from one of the three (they will probably say Siemens is TfL's problem for not having the money to order more tube stock).

 

[James Finch]

With an election next year and the likelihood of UK based factories announcing threat to jobs due to lack of demand (see Roger Ford's latest Modern Railways article), I would expect this to actually be new stock from one of the three (they will probably say Siemens is TfL's problem for not having the money to order more tube stock).

That would be the most wise choice, I wonder what excuse DfT/Treasury will come up with to explain the funding for it, and not other crucial improvements!

What are the 3 - Alstom, Siemens and Hitachi? Out of all of them I'd assume Alstom would be the best/most likely option, although where will they have capacity between current contracts, its HS2 contribution, and the possibility for more 345's?

 

[Trainbike46]

That would be the most wise choice, I wonder what excuse DfT/Treasury will come up with to explain the funding for it, and not other crucial improvements!

What are the 3 - Alstom, Siemens and Hitachi? Out of all of them I'd assume Alstom would be the best/most likely option, although where will they have capacity between current contracts, its HS2 contribution, and the possibility for more 345's?

the four uk train factories are:
Alstom Derby
Siemens Goole
Hitachi Newton Aycliffe
Caf Newport

 

[James Finch]

the four uk train factories are:
Alstom Derby
Siemens Goole
Hitachi Newton Aycliffe
Caf Newport

Forgot about CAF, thanks!

Of those, who have a sufficient design to fulfil the contract requirements, and could physically manufacture them?

- CAF hasn't got a metro-type EMU design (class 331 is more of an intercity design)
- Siemens doesn't manufacture Desiro City's anymore
- Whilst they have a sufficient design (class 701), Alstom is limited on manufacturing capacity due to HS2 (unless they could be manufactured in parallel), not to mention the software problems
- Hitachi doesn't have an "already manufactured, existing" design (a contract requirement)

Seems like we need someone to restart manufacture/add to existing manufacturing capacity, or get Alstom to fix their problems!

 

[Trainbike46]

Forgot about CAF, thanks!

Of those, who have a sufficient design to fulfil the contract requirements, and could physically manufacture them?

- CAF hasn't got a metro-type EMU design (class 331 is more of an intercity design)
- Siemens doesn't manufacture Desiro City's anymore
- Whilst they have a sufficient design (class 701), Alstom is limited on manufacturing capacity due to HS2 (unless they could be manufactured in parallel), not to mention the software problems
- Hitachi doesn't have an "already manufactured, existing" design (a contract requirement)

Seems like we need someone to restart manufacture/add to existing manufacturing capacity, or get Alstom to fix their problems!

Class 331 could be adapted to meet metro-style requirements
Hitachi might offer a variation of the class 385
Siemens could restart production of the desiro city
I also vaguely remember reading somewhere siemens has a newer design for the UK market as well

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

That would be the most wise choice, I wonder what excuse DfT/Treasury will come up with to explain the funding for it, and not other crucial improvements!

I personally would consider Networker replacement a crucial improvement.

 

[Doomotron]

Forgot about CAF, thanks!

Of those, who have a sufficient design to fulfil the contract requirements, and could physically manufacture them?

- CAF hasn't got a metro-type EMU design (class 331 is more of an intercity design)
- Siemens doesn't manufacture Desiro City's anymore
- Whilst they have a sufficient design (class 701), Alstom is limited on manufacturing capacity due to HS2 (unless they could be manufactured in parallel), not to mention the software problems
- Hitachi doesn't have an "already manufactured, existing" design (a contract requirement)

Seems like we need someone to restart manufacture/add to existing manufacturing capacity, or get Alstom to fix their problems!

Class 331 could be adapted to meet metro-style requirements
Hitachi might offer a variation of the class 385
Siemens could restart production of the desiro city
I also vaguely remember reading somewhere siemens has a newer design for the UK market as well

The production line for Desiros City units is closed but the product seems to still be offered so probably could be bought, albeit likely with a surcharge. Hitachi's AT200 design has already been built and could work as a universal replacement for 465s and 377s, but would have to cover two different types of service which both the 377/5 and 465/9 failed to do. Alstom definitely can build the replacement fleet but whether they should is another question entirely.

 

[Mikey C]

The 701s would surely have to enter service, and reliably too, before any more Aventra orders are placed.

 

[Energy]

The production line for Desiros City units is closed but the product seems to still be offered so probably could be bought, albeit likely with a surcharge. Hitachi's AT200 design has already been built and could work as a universal replacement for 465s and 377s, but would have to cover two different types of service which both the 377/5 and 465/9 failed to do. Alstom definitely can build the replacement fleet but whether they should is another question entirely.

Hitachi and Alstom will be busy with the HS2 order. CAF Newport isn't big enough for the order. I'd expect it to go to Siemens.

 

[RealTrains07]

If Southeasterns is to get a new fleet of trains then that should only be done if necessary. New train fleets are starting to feel like they are being done for show rather than being ordered for actual need.

I have no sympathy DfT having factories with a lack of work. Thats the natural order of things for the railway. We have too many factories for the demand we have.

Train fleet orders were always going to dry up at somepoint. If you replace too many trains fleets too quickly. Work dries up. DfT once again fails to understand that. Train fleets are being built to last 40 years. There is only so much work available

 

[Trainguy34]

- Hitachi doesn't have an "already manufactured, existing" design (a contract requirement)

They could do Some 80Xs if more HS1 trains are needed, especially if the Hastings branch of HS1 happens - Bi Mode or battery?

 

[Trainbike46]

They could do Some 80Xs if more HS1 trains are needed, especially if the Hastings branch of HS1 happens - Bi Mode or battery?

In terms of this tender though, SE isn't looking for high-speed stock. For this tender from Hitachi, an adapted 385 would be way more suitable than an 80x

 

[Stephen42]

That would be the most wise choice, I wonder what excuse DfT/Treasury will come up with to explain the funding for it, and not other crucial improvements!

What are the 3 - Alstom, Siemens and Hitachi? Out of all of them I'd assume Alstom would be the best/most likely option, although where will they have capacity between current contracts, its HS2 contribution, and the possibility for more 345's?

It's only going to be approved if it has a reasonable business case, at some point the escalating lease and maintenance costs will mean that the new fleet is actually cheaper than the current one.

If Southeasterns is to get a new fleet of trains then that should only be done if necessary. New train fleets are starting to feel like they are being done for show rather than being ordered for actual need.

I have no sympathy DfT having factories with a lack of work. Thats the natural order of things for the railway. We have too many factories for the demand we have.

Train fleet orders were always going to dry up at somepoint. If you replace too many trains fleets too quickly. Work dries up. DfT once again fails to understand that. Train fleets are being built to last 40 years. There is only so much work available

The class 465/466 trains likely to be replaced by this would be 35 years old by the specified introduction date. There are challenges getting spare parts already and that will only get worse in future. The new fleet has a requirement for spares to be provided over their intended lifespan to prevent a repeat situation.

The business case may be pretty decent based on reduced maintenance costs, improved like for like capacity, ability to run more 12-car trains (so fewer drivers and reduced need for infrastructure interventions) and higher availability avoids needing new stabling/maintenance capacity for increased passenger numbers in future. If a battery option is progressed it would reduce cancellations due to infrastructure issues, trains being gapped or ice on third rail.

 

[jackot]

Siemens could restart production of the desiro city
I also vaguely remember reading somewhere siemens has a newer design for the UK market as well

The production line for Desiros City units is closed but the product seems to still be offered so probably could be bought, albeit likely with a surcharge.

Yes, they have talked about the Desiro Verve before, which could well be offered. It is a modular platform a bit like the Mireo which could well be adapted for Southeastern. If not I would image for an order of this size and for the right price they would be willing restart Desiro City production as said with some updates.

My hope is that it will go to Siemens. Alstom and Hitachi have HS2 to deal with and their Aventra platform isn't exactly doing well at the moment. However, Siemens products tend to be on the more expensive side, so I could also see CAF getting the order.