Russia invades Ukraine

[Annetts key]

There are three obvious possibilities that I can see.

1. It’s a pretext for something particularly unpleasant.

2. It’s a pretext for a Russian withdrawal.

3. It’s as it first appears i.e. Prigozhin has turned on the MOD.

The Russians don’t need a pretext to commit atrocities, and I’m not sure they’d go to this much hassle to create one. It could be a pretext for a withdrawal and I can see how this would play out, but again I’m not convinced. Therefore I think it’s most likely as it appears. After months of tension, an escalating war of words and then the contract situation (deadline is the 1st of July IIRC) I suspect Prigozhin has decided to make a move as he’s got nothing left to lose. If this is the case, I’d be surprised if he’s acting alone.

Clearly we have limited information at this stage so I could be completely wrong!

Hmm, Prigozhin has been rather vocal in recent times, and often at least 80% of what he has said has been closer to the known facts compared to the 100% lies coming from the Kremlin.

It’s also possible that Putin has been unaware of the actual factual situation with respect of how well (or not) Russia has been doing in Ukraine.

Either way, this is going to be interesting to watch. Especially if ordinary Russian military and police don’t impede Prigozhin.

 

[Welly]

I really hope Prickgozhin's antics causes Putain's war special millitary operation effort in Ukraine to collapse.

 

[Sm5]

Prigozhin has a few options here.

The Russian army isnt going to win any support from the populace attacking Wagner on its own streets.
Wagner themselves command a level of respect.
I also suspect a number of Russian soldiers arent going to want to fight other Russians, and indeed may be even sympathetic to Wagner.

Flip side, Russian army has more guns, tanks, aircraft, bombs.

This might end up being a decision for the big boss, which might be a wake up call for whats really going on to him.
Prigozhin has served up a big breakfast for Putin this morning.

But Putin will be in a difficult spot, if he learns hes been gaslighted about Ukraine, who does he trust, the 23 year establishment around him, or his chef ?
He surely has to go with the establishment around him.

I still predict Wagner is an army looking for a country, and if blowing open the doors in Rostov see’s them offered territory in Donbass to keep quiet, it becomes a thorn on both sides, but its outside Russia and the Russian government may settle for that, leaving Ukraine with a new problem… but it also gives Russia an off ramp to the war as well, spinning it as a new country loyal to Russia, job done, bring the army home…

if thats wishful thinking, the alternative is a bloody standoff around rostov and sees prigozhin retreat back into Donbass and becomes an issue for Russia there…

Ukraine then has to take wagner on, Russia leaving them to twist without supplies, but deflects blame away from Russia when wagner fails… Prigozhin has proven a negotiator, he may even make his own deal with Ukraine, either as a base, or simply a way out.
in an even further scenario Prigozhin could just flip sides to Ukraine.

Thing is wagner is a mix of well paid mercenaries, supported by convicts with no place to go and nothing to lose…

There is an element of theatre to this, which makes me suspicious… Rostov is 250 miles south east of Bakhmut, if Prigozhin is going to Moscow, he has gone the wrong way… but breaking supply lines to Crimea and Mariupol, its not a bad choice, which makes me think this is about him carving a niche for himself.

Must be an interesting thing for his 18 year old daughter too, she runs a luxury hotel in St Petersburg and lives in its best suite…at least she did until last night, I wonder if she will get a wake up call this morning too. Russia has a gangster mentality, that and a consolidated chain of command may reel Prigozhin in and end it all quickly… Prigozhin will need to arm himself quickly if hes to stand off…i cant imagine he’s that well loaded currently, if he’s been demobbed.

either way I dont see a long term negative for Ukraine in this, even if its not pretty.

 

[DustyBin]

I really hope Prickgozhin's antics causes Putain's war special millitary operation effort in Ukraine to collapse.

It can’t be good for morale, and presumably there are thousands of experienced mercenaries now missing from the front line.

Who has he got “on side” is the other question. Prigozhin is a lot of things but he’s not stupid, and it seems unlikely he could successfully pull this off alone.

Rather amusing from the fake Sputnik Twitter account:

BREAKING: Russian Defense Ministry announces it has killed 150,000 Wagner mercenaries, destroyed 700 Wagner tanks and captured four Yevgeny Prigozhins.

https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1672396046557691909

 

[adc82140]

This is unlikely to be a successful military coup in Russia. Putin will remain president. But without Wagner support in Ukraine, holding on to the captured territory is a near impossibility. He will have to negotiate to save face, and this will be from a position of weakness.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Who has he got “on side” is the other question. Prigozhin is a lot of things but he’s not stupid, and it seems unlikely he could successfully pull this off alone.

This is the million dollar question. It's very noticeable so far that we haven't seen anything of the Russian leadership, bearing in mind that it's now nearly 10am in Moscow.

The key test IMO will be if other military commands start rebelling. So far, they seem to be passive, which suggests a lack of orders more than anything else. If Prigozhin cannot get them to switch sides without Wagner forces being present, then he has no chance of success.

 

[Ivor]

I really hope Prickgozhin's antics causes Putain's war special millitary operation effort in Ukraine to collapse.

Totally agree, we live in hope.

This is the million dollar question. It's very noticeable so far that we haven't seen anything of the Russian leadership, bearing in mind that it's now nearly 10am in Moscow.

He has over the period of the war announced ‘a speech to his people’ he either keeps his audience waiting for hours to then spout nothing significant or his speeches do not happen at all.

 

[DustyBin]

The key test IMO will be if other military commands start rebelling. So far, they seem to be passive, which suggests a lack of orders more than anything else. If Prigozhin cannot get them to switch sides without Wagner forces being present, then he has no chance of success.

Apparently (as now being reported on BBC News) the order is clear: arrest Prigozhin. So they either can’t or won’t, which is interesting.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Apparently (as now being reported on BBC News) the order is clear: arrest Prigozhin. So they either can’t or won’t, which is interesting.

Well, this is it. Either the military does as they're told and they get him one way or another, or they do nothing and Putin's era is over.

 

[adc82140]

I'm surprised Putin hasn't tried to blame NATO yet.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I suspect that Prigozhin will indeed be captured or killed. He won't have the numbers to hold out, and there's no sign of rebellion in other military districts. I suspect that Putin spent the morning ensuring that he had the support of the people that really matter before making this speech.

 

[kristiang85]

There's a theory going round that this is all staged to give Putin his off ramp. But who knows in this war?

But I can see why the foot soldiers in the Russian army are not offering much resistance. Most of them don't want to be there anyway.

 

[adc82140]

The Tass Russian state news website hasn't been updated for three hours. That's unusual. Editorial crisis meeting?

 

[edwin_m]

There's a theory going round that this is all staged to give Putin his off ramp. But who knows in this war?

But I can see why the foot soldiers in the Russian army are not offering much resistance. Most of them don't want to be there anyway.

It's also likely that Russian combat forces around Rostov are depleted, transferred either to the frontline or to the areas bordering unoccupied Ukraine further north.

 

[Sm5]

There's a theory going round that this is all staged to give Putin his off ramp. But who knows in this war?

But I can see why the foot soldiers in the Russian army are not offering much resistance. Most of them don't want to be there anyway.

This is indeed a possibility.

regardless outcome for wagner, tomorrow isnt business as usual on the frontline, many dont want to be there, and how many will have the will to fight Ukraine, knowing their own backs are not covered and with indecision and infighting at home.
Putins sided against Prigozhin.. now everyone is going to need to show their hand and decide who they are with, quite quickly.

are there enough disillusioned with the war willing to follow prigozhin, or are too many still afraid of the apparatus that is the Russian machine ?

reading the various telegram channels this morning the russian ones are notably on the fence for once… they dont know whsos side to pick and dont want to be on the losing side…. thats a start contrast with say the 1944 coup and operation Valkyrie… there more voices shouted for Hitler immediately and the loudest won… so far i’m not seeing even calls for Unity, let alone support for Putin.

Control of the information space in the next 24 hours will be as important as the military space.

(funnily enough Twitter already has photos of wagner recruitment signs being pulled down in Moscow, will it be as quick in the centre and east ?).

its Prigozhins move next…

if hes going to moscow, he better get started, just dont reccomend a helicopter at this point…

Putin may win this coup, but as he said its a “stab in the back”… so he’s injured, either way, the seed of dissent is sown throughout the ranks.. assuming Prigozhin loses, Ukraine might want to risk going all in next.. inflict some hard pain onto that lost morale.. it may collapse the ranks.

 

[Chingy]

What a choice for the west though! Either we have a “Putin’s Russia” or a “Prigozhin’s Russia”.

That’s like going to the pub and finding out they only have Fosters or Coors Light in stock.

 

[kristiang85]

What a choice for the west though! Either we have a “Putin’s Russia” or a “Prigozhin’s Russia”.

That’s like going to the pub and finding out they only have Fosters or Coors Light in stock.

I suspect Prigozhin doesn't want to lead Russia; I do think there's powerful people behind this who want to oust Putin, and he will get some safe territory and a handsome pay off. I might be completely wrong though.

But the staged theory is now blown out of the water - Wagner is already halfway to Moscow and have engaged with Russian forces. Apparently 4 helicopters have been shot down.

 

[Sm5]

What a choice for the west though! Either we have a “Putin’s Russia” or a “Prigozhin’s Russia”.

That’s like going to the pub and finding out they only have Fosters or Coors Light in stock.

I would imagine there are several others who have a desire on the big prize.

Kadyrov also might want a word.

interestingly, Lukashenko flew out of Belarus to Turkey last night.


one of the more comedic posts today said the Russian invasion of Russia has taken more Russian territory today than it took in Ukraine in a year.

 

[Cloud Strife]

But the staged theory is now blown out of the water - Wagner is already halfway to Moscow and have engaged with Russian forces. Apparently 4 helicopters have been shot down.

And now an An-26 as well.

Kadyrov also might want a word.

Apparently he's sent his forces to take on Wagner. The two men hate each other as it is, but it's finally time for Kadyrov's Tiktok warriors to earn their salaries.

 

[nlogax]

A real 'leopards ate my face' moment for Putin and his defence ministry. I do wonder if this is the start of something much bigger that would lead to Putin's demise. Can the Russian military fight a war on two separate fronts..in Ukraine and also inside its own borders? With 50k personnel is the Wagner group really big enough to effect any change?

 

[DustyBin]

As already mentioned there are reports of multiple Russian aircraft being shot down. From the videos I’ve seen it appears Wagner have taken some heavy duty kit with them on the road to Moscow.

Another observation is that there have been a large number of private jets leaving Moscow (visible on FR24) which is interesting.

All in all this now looks like a genuine attempt at a coup, and a serious one at that.

 

[kristiang85]

Prigozhin audio message 10:19AM BST - "no one will surrender to the demands of the President":

"Regarding the betrayal of the Motherland, the President is deeply mistaken. We’re patriots of our Motherland. We fought and we are fighting, all fighters of PMC Wagner. And no one is going to surrender to the demands of the President, FSB, or anyone else. Because we don’t want the country to live further in corruption lies, and bureaucracy.

When we fought in Africa, we were told that we needed Africa, and then they dumped it, because they stole all the money that was meant to come for help.

When we were told we are fighting with Ukraine, we went and fought. But it turned out that the ammo, weapons, all money put towards this were also being stolen, while officials are sitting and saving them for themselves for an incident that happened today, when someone is going towards Moscow."

Now they are not saving anything, they are striking us with planes and helicopters at the columns with civilians. And they hit civilians because they’re missing. And they hit anywhere they can.

Thus, we are the patriots, but those resisting us today are those who gathered around scumbags.

 

[DustyBin]

A real 'leopards ate my face' moment for Putin and his defence ministry. I do wonder if this is the start of something much bigger that would lead to Putin's demise. Can the Russian military fight a war on two separate fronts..in Ukraine and also inside its own borders? With 50k personnel is the Wagner group really big enough to effect any change?

I don’t think the Wagner Group have that many personnel (not in Russia/Eastern Europe anyway) but I could be wrong.

Regardless, the key question remains: are they acting alone?

 

[kristiang85]

I don’t think the Wagner Group have that many personnel (not in Russia/Eastern Europe anyway) but I could be wrong.

This is another issue - Wagner do Russia's dirty work in propping up African dictatorships, which in turn is very lucrative for Putin.

 

[Yew]

I thought October was the traditional month for revolutions in Russia...

 

[Bald Rick]

Kadyrov also might want a word.

He appears to be channelling Darth Vader, saying “the rebellion must be crushed”

That didn‘t end well for Vader.

 

[Parjon]

Or Iain Duncan Smith

 

[nlogax]

Rumours currently abound that Lushashenko has just fled Belarus on reports of similar events there. Not sure how much truth there is in it

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

He appears to be channelling Darth Vader, saying “the rebellion must be crushed”

That didn‘t end well for Vader.

That was Grand Moff Tarkin (played by Peter Cushing)

 

[DustyBin]

Rumours currently abound that Lushashenko has just fled Belarus on reports of similar events there. Not sure how much truth there is in it

Even if nothing’s actually happening in Belarus he must be panicking, so this wouldn’t surprise me.

I was actually going to quip that Putin could always ask Lukashenko to send in his troops, but it looks like I’m too late!