More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[YourMum666]

Which is pretty much a dead heat with the ECML, even with the comparatively slow 30-minute Manchester-Leeds journey time (a full HSL would be able to do it significantly faster, NPR themselves project 25 minutes with a detour to Bradford).

The absolute fastest train is 1hr51 London-York, a large number of the trains are slower than 2 hours today.....

(You also have to factor in that by the time HS2 gets to York if it gets there, the ECML would have been 140mph)

 

[MPW]

What was the reason for tunneling hs2 to euston in first place, instead of putting existing services into tunnel near old oak and hs2 to existing platforms at euston? Train length?

 

[tomuk]

NPR (the IRP version) + HS2's journey time advantage would be so enormous that people will start changing trains to go via Manchester.

71 minutes + ~33 minutes plus changing time is going to be under two hours easily.

The IRP journey time for Leeds to London via an enhanced ECML was 113 minutes with no changes.

 

[jfowkes]

What was the reason for tunneling hs2 to euston in first place, instead of putting existing services into tunnel near old oak and hs2 to existing platforms at euston? Train length?

Not quite sure I understand the question here. What existing services are you putting into tunnel near Old Oak? Existing WCML services don't go near OOC. There isn't really any space on the route of the WCML through London to do any major tunnelling work, it's a minor miracle that OOC was available for a station.

 

[stuu]

Not quite sure I understand the question here. What existing services are you putting into tunnel near Old Oak? Existing WCML services don't go near OOC. There isn't really any space on the route of the WCML through London to do any major tunnelling work, it's a minor miracle that OOC was available for a station.

They do, it's only about half a mile north. A tunnel portal could have been built near Kilburn High Road, but obviously would have needed a lot of demolition and less capacity so the best option was to tunnel all the way

 

[The Planner]

What was the reason for tunneling hs2 to euston in first place, instead of putting existing services into tunnel near old oak and hs2 to existing platforms at euston? Train length?

If HS2 used the existing platforms, how do you release capacity on the WCML?

 

[Grimsby town]

Which is pretty much a dead heat with the ECML, even with the comparatively slow 30-minute Manchester-Leeds journey time (a full HSL would be able to do it significantly faster, NPR themselves project 25 minutes with a detour to Bradford).

The absolute fastest train is 1hr51 London-York, a large number of the trains are slower than 2 hours today.....

I was definitely being generous with 2 hours. I can't realistically being less than 2 hour 5 minutes. If Piccadilly isn't a through station then it's more likely to be 2 hours 10 mins or more. Leeds there's more of valid argument for sending trains that way. York or Newcastle it's simply not competitive with the ECML. You're giving a big competitive advantage to Manchester over Newcastle, Sheffield and Leeds which isn't politically feasible.

 

[HSTEd]

If Piccadilly isn't a through station then it's more likely to be 2 hours 10 mins or more.

Now that auto-reverse exists it is unlikely that a dwell in a reversal station will be substantially longer than a dwell at a through station. Which is why the through station got axed from the NPR programme in the first place!

But this is very off topic

 

[tomuk]

Now that auto-reverse exists it is unlikely that a dwell in a reversal station will be substantially longer than a dwell at a through station. Which is why the through station got axed from the NPR programme in the first place!

But this is very off topic

The through station was never part of NPR. It might of been part of Transport for the North's Bradford Pennine Base Tunnel aspirations but the DfT/HS2 plan has always been a terminus.

 

[AndrewE]

Realistically the bulk of the eastern leg of HS2 died with the Sheffield Meadowhall station.

Building a high speed line from south of Chesterfield all the way to Leeds solely for serving Leeds was never going to fly. If HS2 reaches Leeds it will be via Marsden...

... or a new Pennine base tunnel. What is the line capacity from Manchester to Marsden? Think big instead!

 

[tomuk]

... or a new Pennine base tunnel. What is the line capacity from Manchester to Marsden? Think big instead!

The base tunnel is complete extravagance the route via Marsden includes a new line along the existing rail corridor from rdwick towards Guide Bridge with a tunnel from there to Marsden .

 

[AndrewE]

What was the reason for tunneling hs2 to euston in first place, instead of putting existing services into tunnel near old oak and hs2 to existing platforms at euston? Train length?

Euston is chock-a-block as it is, and Paddington couldn't take the WCML trains anyway, so why take the currently 100%-used capacity at Euston for HS2? Where would you send the current Euston trains?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2023 ==

The base tunnel is complete extravagance the route via Marsden includes a new line along the existing rail corridor from rdwick towards Guide Bridge with a tunnel from there to Marsden .

This is the first time I have heard of a tunnel Guide bridge to Marsden, it's not bad, but why waste time and energy climbing up to there when the fast trains need to get straight to Huddersfield? Marsden down to Hudd isn't exacly a high-speed alignment...

 

[tomuk]

Euston is chock-a-block as it is, and Paddington couldn't take the WCML trains anyway, so why take the currently 100%-used capacity at Euston for HS2? Where would you send the current Euston trains?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2023 ==


This is the first time I have heard of a tunnel Guide bridge to Marsden, it's not bad, but why waste time and energy climbing up to there when the fast trains need to get straight to Huddersfield? Marsden down to Hudd isn't exacly a high-speed alignment...

NPR will reuse the current Transpenine Route Upgrade upgraded existing line from there to at least Dewsbury via Huddersfield.

 

[matacaster]

What was the reason for tunneling hs2 to euston in first place, instead of putting existing services into tunnel near old oak and hs2 to existing platforms at euston? Train length?

Indeed, one might even ask why Euston? Were other stations considered or was it 'well the wcml has always ended at Euston'?

 

[jfowkes]

Indeed, one might even ask why Euston? Were other stations considered or was it 'well the wcml has always ended at Euston'?

The HS2 railway, UK: route optioneering document details the station selection, on page 7, from 27 initial options, to 10, then to 4 and finally to 1 preferred (Euston) and two alternatives (Euston double-deck and "King's Cross Lands - cut and cover").

It's an interesting document that details a lot of the thought that went into route selection along all of Phase 1.

Screen capture of the relevant page:

 

[350401]

It can't and it won't be the service to OOC will be just 3tph to Birmingham. Although it hasn't been made clear parts of the Handsacre link north of Birmingham have also been paused just like Euston so Liverpool\Mancheser\Glasgow(not Edinburgh) will have to stay on WMCL for some time longer.

The Handsacre link has not been paused, and is very much under construction. If phase 2a/2b get canned, it is very much essential to getting any kind of VFM from phase 1. The 2029-33 initial “preview” service is just 3tph to Curzon Street but after the initial service proving, Handsacre is planned to come into service - hopefully within a year - 18 months after. OOC has 6 platforms and could in theory support the 11tph service assuming a 20minute platform occupation per service - this allows 2tph per platform with a spare path and some margin. There is also the option of running 2x200m trains as far as Interchange and then splitting, with half going to Curzon St and half to Manchester. The plan is to get the line in service and then tweak service patterns as needed.

 

[tomuk]

The Handsacre link has not been paused, and is very much under construction. If phase 2a/2b get canned, it is very much essential to getting any kind of VFM from phase 1. The 2029-33 initial “preview” service is just 3tph to Curzon Street but after the initial service proving, Handsacre is planned to come into service - hopefully within a year - 18 months after.

So you can confirm no work packages north of the delta junction on Phase one have been paused or slowed down over the next two years like the Euston approaches?

Mr Thurston and Minister Merriman seem to be vey much talking about a 3tph captive service between Curzon Street and OOC and no more northerly services.

The Secretary of state said in response to a question about Handsacre being cancelled:

“Whilst our priority is to deliver the opening stage of HS2 on schedule and for high-speed services to commence from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street between 2029 and 2033, I have been clear that construction works on phase one, north of Birmingham from Delta Junction to Fradley, and including works at Handsacre, will continue to progress.”

So work will progress but when will they be complete?

 

[350401]

So you can confirm no work packages north of the delta junction on Phase one have been paused or slowed down over the next two years like the Euston approaches?

Mr Thurston and Minister Merriman seem to be vey much talking about a 3tph captive service between Curzon Street and OOC and no more northerly services.

The Secretary of state said in response to a question about Handsacre being cancelled:

“Whilst our priority is to deliver the opening stage of HS2 on schedule and for high-speed services to commence from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street between 2029 and 2033, I have been clear that construction works on phase one, north of Birmingham from Delta Junction to Fradley, and including works at Handsacre, will continue to progress.”

So work will progress but when will they be complete?

My understanding is that is still planned to be delivered in the 2029-33 window, but the OOC - Curzon Street works will be the first to open. It’ll be a phased opening, much like Crossrail was. Get the first captive phase working properly, then open the junction and the interface with NR land. This is the one signalling interface in phase 1, so is the most likely to go wrong. Given the pressure to deliver something, the captive service will open first, whilst the signal engineers work on getting the NR/HS2 interface working correctly. The latest updated public documents for phase 2b indicate a 2038 in service date for phase 2b to Manchester, so working backwards, we can expect something like 2035 for 2a, 2032/33 for full phase 1 and 2030/31 for the “preview” service.

 

[tomuk]

My understanding is that is still planned to be delivered in the 2029-33 window, but the OOC - Curzon Street works will be the first to open. It’ll be a phased opening, much like Crossrail was. Get the first captive phase working properly, then open the junction and the interface with NR land. This is the one signalling interface in phase 1, so is the most likely to go wrong. Given the pressure to deliver something, the captive service will open first, whilst the signal engineers work on getting the NR/HS2 interface working correctly. The latest updated public documents for phase 2b indicate a 2038 in service date for phase 2b to Manchester, so working backwards, we can expect something like 2035 for 2a, 2032/33 for full phase 1 and 2030/31 for the “preview” service.

You're not filling me with confidence. Mark Thurston doesn't seem very sure about the impact of the pause on current public documents. From the Transport Committee hearing in May.

Mark Thurston: Let’s take phase 2b first, because in the funding agreement we have with the Department for the next two years we have protected the passage of the hybrid Bill, which is critical to the ongoing phase once we get Royal Assent. We were looking to do some ground investigation and early development work in parallel with the Bill’s passage. Should some funding come on stream in the next two years, we will prioritise that work, but at the moment that work has been deferred because of the funding settlement. That is where we are on 2b from Crewe into Manchester.

South of Crewe back down to Birmingham, phase 2a, is further advanced. We got Royal Assent at the beginning of 2021. We were making great progress with land acquisition, enabling works, ecology works and a lot of things like utility diversions. We will conclude, so some funding has been made available for the next two years to conclude some of that work where we are demobilising the contractors who we will take off the project. We will bring the scheme design on to the project, hopefully later this year, so we intend to start designing the scheme beyond the definition that we have got with the hybrid Bill. We have not fully understood the cost of the schedule impacts to phase 2a through the reduction in funding, but we will probably conclude that work some time on the other side of the summer.

Transport Committee Oral evidence: HS2: progress update, HC 641 Thursday 18 May 2023, Buckinghamshire

 

[350401]

You're not filling me with confidence. Mark Thurston doesn't seem very sure about the impact of the pause on current public documents. From the Transport Committee hearing in May.


Transport Committee Oral evidence: HS2: progress update, HC 641 Thursday 18 May 2023, Buckinghamshire

2b has been delayed by 2 years by the pause. However, as delivery into service isn’t until 2035-41, that in itself doesn’t push the in service window out. It’s now 2038, it was probably nearer to 2035 before the pause. Phase 1, including Handsacre but excluding Euston, isn’t fundamentally impacted by the pause. It was never going to be a “big bang” full opening at once. The lessons learnt from Crossrail are that incremental is best, and that signalling interfaces are problematic. Therefore, get the line open OOC to Curzon St ASAP and then get the interface with NR at Handsacre sorted. Both should still open within the 2029-33 window, but with a 12-18 month delay between the two; think phase 1A and 1B.

 

[snowball]

Since the 2-year delay was first announced, my impression, as a complete outsider, is that DfT/HS2 Ltd have been running round trying to decide what exactly they mean by it, what its scope is, in order to reduce its adverse effects while satisfying the basic demand from the Treasury. Maybe now a sufficient time has elapsed since the original announcement for them to be settling down to a fairly rational definition.

Edit: excluding Euston, obviously.

 

[tomuk]

2b has been delayed by 2 years by the pause. However, as delivery into service isn’t until 2035-41, that in itself doesn’t push the in service window out. It’s now 2038, it was probably nearer to 2035 before the pause. Phase 1, including Handsacre but excluding Euston, isn’t fundamentally impacted by the pause. It was never going to be a “big bang” full opening at once. The lessons learnt from Crossrail are that incremental is best, and that signalling interfaces are problematic. Therefore, get the line open OOC to Curzon St ASAP and then get the interface with NR at Handsacre sorted. Both should still open within the 2029-33 window, but with a 12-18 month delay between the two; think phase 1A and 1B.

That seems to have been the thinking before the pause but is it now? To begin with they, DfT\HS2, wouldn't even admit the Euston tunnels would be paused.

If the pause has no effect as you suggest then why were HS2 wasting time on the pre pause schedule?

 

[Bayum]

Mark Thurston has announced he will resign due to delays and ballooning costs.

‘ The chief executive of HS2 has announced he will resign later this year following major delays and cost pressures for the high-speed railway project.

Mark Thurston, 56, will leave his role at HS2 Ltd in September after six-and-a-half years spearheading the Government-owned company. Initially scheduled to open in 2026, the railway project has been delayed to between 2029 and 2033 due to construction difficulties and rising costs.

Mr Thurston said someone else should take over as the project transitions from construction to a “defining period” involving the installation of railway systems, such as track and signalling equipment.

HS2 Ltd’s latest annual report shows Mr Thurston, who is the company’s longest serving chief executive, was paid a salary of £617,300 in the 2021/22 financial year, while also receiving £5,400 in benefits.

The ambitious project received a £55.7 billion budget in 2015, but the target cost excluding the eastern leg of Phase 2b from the West Midlands to the East Midlands has soared to between £53 billion and £61 billion at 2019 prices.

In March, Transport Secretary Mark Harper announced work at Euston would be paused for two years as costs had ballooned to £4.8 billion compared with an initial budget of £2.6 billion.

Mr Thurston’s resignation announcement comes while Phase One of the project between London and Birmingham is at peak construction, with major work taking place at more than 350 sites.

Just last week, a raft of major changes were proposed to the planned law that would see HS2 extend to Manchester. Submitted to Parliament, the alterations include the relocation of M56’s Junction 6 to the south west and modifications to road junctions in a number of community areas.

In June, a committee of MPs were also told that a four-platform, underground HS2 rail station at Piccadilly would be 'the best solution for Manchester and the north'. Long-standing plans for two extra platforms at the railway station were 'dropped' by the Government at a similar time.

In a statement announcing his resignation today (July 12), Mr Thurston said: “Leading this organisation has been the highlight of my career and a privilege from the first day.

“The programme has come such a long way and I want to thank everyone who has worked on the project during my time.

“The next 18-24 months will see the project move into an exciting new stage. I have agreed with the board that someone else should lead the organisation and programme through what will be another defining period for HS2.”

Transport Secretary Mr Harper said: “I’d like to thank Mark Thurston for his work over the last six years progressing Britain’s most transformative rail project.

“As well as successfully overseeing the start of construction, he has ensured HS2 has created tens of thousands of skilled jobs and apprenticeships across the country.

“ As HS2 enters its next phase, the Government remains committed to unlocking all the benefits of this flagship infrastructure scheme – increasing rail capacity, connecting communities and growing the economy.”

When Mr Thurston leaves at the end of September, HS2 Ltd chairman Sir Jon Thompson will become executive chairman for an interim period while a new chief executive is recruited.

Available at: https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...s/hs2-boss-quits-following-major-27307073.amp

 

[The Planner]

Speaking to people I know, all the planned disruption for Handsacre on the Trent Valley lines has been pulled for the next 18 months (apart from next weeks 9 day block). So clearly that points to it being paused.

 

[Bald Rick]

As an example of best practice, East Midlands Railways operates 2 trains per hour to each of 3 destinations, from just 4 platforms at St Pancras.

Yes, St P is 6 trains an hour from 4 platforms.

Euston is being built for 17 trains an hour.…

 

[Xavi]

Note that Thurston referred to the impact of ‘reduction in funding’. That’s the truth and what the government don’t want the public to hear.

 

[quantinghome]

Yes, but as we have learned repeatedly over the last couple of decades, what governments propose in their policy papers changes every five minutes.
If NPR is built, the bulk of Leeds to London traffic will almost inevitably reroute over it given that it will be faster and have much higher capacity.

Especially when/if the ECML upgrade programme suffers the fate of all modern railway upgrades and suffers from catastrophic budgetary and schedule collapse.

Routeing Leeds and north-east trains via Manchester would surely lead to the combined HS2/NPR line south of Manchester being overloaded. Also, assuming a terminus station at Piccadilly, there would be an enormous number of train moves into and out of the HS2/NPR platforms every hour. Euston would be a picnic by comparison.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

The HS2 railway, UK: route optioneering document details the station selection, on page 7, from 27 initial options, to 10, then to 4 and finally to 1 preferred (Euston) and two alternatives (Euston double-deck and "King's Cross Lands - cut and cover").

It's an interesting document that details a lot of the thought that went into route selection along all of Phase 1.

Screen capture of the relevant page:

View attachment 139044

That's interesting, so almost a repeat of BR's Kings Cross Low Level plan?

Regarding Manchester, the obvious place for a through station is Manchester Victoria is it not? You'd have to get rid of the stadium there of course, but even if a through east-west Manchester station is built, I do wonder whether a north-south through station might be better. I mean, if HS2 is extended into Scotland, which it should, wouldn't there be demand for Cross Country services from Birmingham and Manchester to Glasgow? These I'm sure would be better as a single service rather than two separate trains to each place.

 

[HSTEd]

This is the first time I have heard of a tunnel Guide bridge to Marsden, it's not bad, but why waste time and energy climbing up to there when the fast trains need to get straight to Huddersfield? Marsden down to Hudd isn't exacly a high-speed alignment...

Modern high speed trains laugh at the gradients required to get over the Pennines though.

 

[dggar]

That's interesting, so almost a repeat of BR's Kings Cross Low Level plan?

Regarding Manchester, the obvious place for a through station is Manchester Victoria is it not? You'd have to get rid of the stadium there of course, but even if a through east-west Manchester station is built, I do wonder whether a north-south through station might be better. I mean, if HS2 is extended into Scotland, which it should, wouldn't there be demand for Cross Country services from Birmingham and Manchester to Glasgow? These I'm sure would be better as a single service rather than two separate trains to each place.

If you were traveling from Birmingham to Glasgow why would you want to go through Manchester?