Remaining Effects of Covid

[yorkie]

I think we have to agree to disagree on the effectiveness of masks...

We don't need to have another debate about the effectiveness of masks; I've said before that the evidence suggests flimsy loose fitting masks are ineffective and that FFP3 masks are effective while they are worn if they are worn / handled / stored correctly (which is not easy, nor cheap to do) and but that eventually everyone is going to be exposed to all commonly circulating viruses anyway, even if they lived a solitary life.

But for some a mask is an inconvenience/intrusion BUT for others it is a reassurance or actually medically important.

I don't think that's actually proven; after all anyone in such a position would be unable to eat or drink in the presence of any other person, if it was that important!

Can you imagine us arguing over this before Covid ?

No because before that, no-one made these unproven arguments about masks!

This is the sort of thing where I would never blame someone for taking as many precautions as possible.

Doesn't mean they are effective.

Everyone is going to be regularly exposed to Sars-CoV-2 particles multiple times in our lifetimes and nothing anyone does can change that fact.

Do you have anything new to add about the remaining effects of Covid? If not, I don't see any point in going round in circles over matters already discussed multiple times...

...It doesn't cost anything...

As well as the financial cost, there are other costs, see above posts.

 

[Peter Sarf]

We don't need to have another debate about the effectiveness of masks; I've said before that the evidence suggests flimsy loose fitting masks are ineffective and that FFP3 masks are effective while they are worn if they are worn / handled / stored correctly (which is not easy, nor cheap to do) and but that eventually everyone is going to be exposed to all commonly circulating viruses anyway, even if they lived a solitary life.

I don't think that's actually proven; after all anyone in such a position would be unable to eat or drink in the presence of any other person, if it was that important!

No because before that, no-one made these unproven arguments about masks!

Doesn't mean they are effective.

Everyone is going to be regularly exposed to Sars-CoV-2 particles multiple times in our lifetimes and nothing anyone does can change that fact.

Do you have anything new to add about the remaining effects of Covid? If not, I don't see any point in going round in circles over matters already discussed multiple times...


As well as the financial cost, there are other costs, see above posts.

My bold. I suppose they could quite easily eat or drink in a solitary place. But for a visit to hospital or other essential tasks they would have to encounter other humans.

Masks have been around since long before Covid19. Whether they were effective against Covid19 we will have to agree to disagree. My view is FFP3 masks were effective *IF* airborne droplets were a means of transmission. Note FFP3 were hard work to wear properly. Lesser masks less effective but perhaps effective enough. In the thick of Covid19 it made sense to avoid the spread happening too fast as we did not want to overwhelm the NHS. Now its endemic there is more reason to just tough it out. - except for the medically vulnerable who can perhaps never let their guard down.

Should we get distracted by masks ?. What was the worst method of transmission - I still wonder about contact with surfaces touched by infected people. Did more men get it bad because men are more likely to stick their (clean looking) dirty finger up their nose ?.

I was one of those who had to stay at work. Not possible to maintain a factory from home after all !. We watched the standard of cleanliness improve remarkably. I was on the first day of cleaning door handles and touch plates. It took two of us six hours (iirc) and several cloths to do the job. After about two weeks one cloth looked clean all the way through. I dread to think how easy it was for all sorts of bugs to exist on those dirty door handles. Perhaps Covid19 has woken us up to hygene ?. Wonder for how long.

My mother, a biologist, was one for allowing our immune systems to learn from what was around us. But that is no good for the older frail members of society or those with other health issues. OK we must all die eventually but I intend to put it off until my brain goes.

 

[VauxhallandI]

TfL did an experiment with surfaces and concluded it wasn’t an issue.

Probably one of the highest touch environments on the planet no?

 

[Yew]

If we have a bad winter flu season, no doubt the likes of Twitty and Vallance would put pressure on the government to impose COVID style restrictions in order to, you've guessed it, "..protect the NHS...".

The more we hear about the Governments WhatsApp messages, the more I feel it is that Boris and Matt were doing what the papers called for, and asking Whitty and Vallance to justify their decisions.

 

[VauxhallandI]

No no it was The Science

 

[bahnause]

The more we hear about the Governments WhatsApp messages, the more I feel it is that Boris and Matt were doing what the papers called for, and asking Whitty and Vallance to justify their decisions.

There are plenty of sources available on the effects of mask mandates and lockdowns.

Masks
Lockdowns

As always, it is important to check the quality of of the sources.

 

[island]

The important part of the phrase that "mask-weaking is a personal choice" is that the choice cuts both ways and respect for others' personal choices is important too.

 

[ainsworth74]

And I think, with that, it's time to bring this mask debate to a close. We do not need to fully re-litigate the mask wars every few months. People have their opinions and can point to a variety of sources of information but we're never all going to agree one way or the other. So let's leave it there thank you. If anyone is desperate to continue the discussion you can either do so elsewhere or via PM with the relevant person.

 

[nw1]

I was one of those who had to stay at work. Not possible to maintain a factory from home after all !. We watched the standard of cleanliness improve remarkably. I was on the first day of cleaning door handles and touch plates. It took two of us six hours (iirc) and several cloths to do the job. After about two weeks one cloth looked clean all the way through. I dread to think how easy it was for all sorts of bugs to exist on those dirty door handles. Perhaps Covid19 has woken us up to hygene ?. Wonder for how long.

Remember that getting over-neurotic about such things produces real harm too. Obsessive Compulsive Disorder is a well-known condition and one of its manifestations is excessive fear of contamination and pathogens from surfaces supposedly not clean enough, which can lead to repetitive and distressing cleaning rituals - which can then also produce physical problems such as chapped hands and bleeding, not to mention the psychological problems of such excessive concern and the worrying and preoccupation that it produces.

So I'm not convinced that excessive cleaning and excessive concern about hygiene is actually good for us at all.

And if the government did inflate the risk of Covid to healthy people in order to ensure compliance (it appears opinions are divided about that). they were potentially causing a lot of psychological fear in susceptible individuals and that really was not on.

Nobody - even the left - cared about mental health during the height of Covid, it seems, and that really was a very bad mistake.

There are plenty of sources available on the effects of [...] lockdowns.

Lockdowns

As always, it is important to check the quality of of the sources.

The real question shouldn't be "were lockdowns effective?", it should be "did they cause more harm than good?"

I'm thinking of the winter 20-21 lockdowns in particular, rather than the initial ones which were more justified due to lack of knowledge about the virus and its effects.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Remember that getting over-neurotic about such things produces real harm too. Obsessive Compulsive Disorder is a well-known condition and one of its manifestations is excessive fear of contamination and pathogens from surfaces supposedly not clean enough, which can lead to repetitive and distressing cleaning rituals - which can then also produce physical problems such as chapped hands and bleeding, not to mention the psychological problems of such excessive concern and the worrying and preoccupation that it produces.

So I'm not convinced that excessive cleaning and excessive concern about hygiene is actually good for us at all.

And if the government did inflate the risk of Covid to healthy people in order to ensure compliance (it appears opinions are divided about that). they were potentially causing a lot of psychological fear in susceptible individuals and that really was not on.

Nobody - even the left - cared about mental health during the height of Covid, it seems, and that really was a very bad mistake.



The real question shouldn't be "were lockdowns effective?", it should be "did they cause more harm than good?"

I'm thinking of the winter 20-21 lockdowns in particular, rather than the initial ones which were more justified due to lack of knowledge about the virus and its effects.

I would say in the case of the factories and offices where I worked that the door handles etc had needed cleaning more often. There was even some argument that they had never been cleaned before by the cleaners. But whether daily was too far I don't know, I personally suspect it was a drastic increase. The handles were certainly a lot cleaner after our efforts judging by the state of the cloths we used over the first week or two. I agree people could and were becoming obsessive but at the other end of the scale were cleaning regimes that were clearly very lax before.

I would say very generally that us humans have gone from one lax extreme to the opposite over the top extreme. Its natural really - many forget the lessons learned and eventually come unstuck and then overreact.

One thing I have occasionally noticed as an after effect of Covid is the sometimes faded grab rails on some busses (and trains maybe). Some pretty strong solvent being used there maybe or perhaps done too often ?. Where that could get counter productive is if the surface being over cleaned is getting damaged in a way that makes it easier to harbor dirt, germs and other nasties.

I suspect mental health tends to get overlooked as it is not so obvious to outsiders. Same really for any non-visible health disorder - for example a weak heart (thus risking death) is not as obvious as a limp (which is less dangerous) !.

It would be interesting to go back in time and see how people really reacted to the Spanish flu and what differences could have been made.

 

[MikeWM]

One very serious ongoing issue - that few seem to care about for some reason, quite possibly because the policies they implemented or loudly supported are to blame - is the *continuing* alarmingly high number of excess deaths.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1794096/excess-deaths-dangerous-theories

Experts call for urgent investigation as excess deaths spark ‘dangerous’ theories

An urgent investigation is needed into why excess deaths are near pandemic levels, because the lack of an explanation is fuelling “wild and dangerous theories”, experts warn.

Government figures suggest the number of extra or “unnecessary” fatalities this year is higher than 2021 and 2022, and on a trajectory that could even surpass 2020.

Of particular concern is the 15 to 44 age group, where cumulative deaths are tracking above all recent years, including 2020.

(bold/italic mine)

Seems like something we should be urgently investigating, and yet other than Andrew Bridgen (who gets called names every time he tries to raise the issue in the House of Commons), no-one seems to care.

 

[Richard Scott]

One very serious ongoing issue - that few seem to care about for some reason, quite possibly because the policies they implemented or loudly supported are to blame - is the *continuing* alarmingly high number of excess deaths.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1794096/excess-deaths-dangerous-theories

(bold/italic mine)

Seems like something we should be urgently investigating, and yet other than Andrew Bridgen (who gets called names every time he tries to raise the issue in the House of Commons), no-one seems to care.

How many of these are attributable to poor mental health due to lockdowns? Asking this as a serious question not a provocative one.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Cat in hells chance of them investigating - its only "not one more covid death" not just boring old death.

 

[dangie]

Ten of us meet Wednesdays & Saturdays in the pub. Over the last couple of days four (two couples) have tested positive for Covid. So far the wife & I have no symptoms.

 

[MikeWM]

How many of these are attributable to poor mental health due to lockdowns? Asking this as a serious question not a provocative one.

Who knows? If those collecting the statistics do, they sure aren't telling us. Either they're not investigating at all for fear of what they'll find, or they have investigated and they're not sharing the data with us, presumably because it would show how terrible the policies of the last three years actually were. Neither option is good.

--

Cat in hells chance of them investigating - its only "not one more covid death" not just boring old death.

That's still a massive problem anyway - for some reason many are still assessing the 'success' or 'failure' of response to the pandemic based on the number of covid deaths, which at this point isn't a useful metric. Now we should be looking at overall excess deaths since 2020 - and the figures on that are very bad in places like the UK, *and continue to be*, with no sign of improvement.

 

[kristiang85]

One very serious ongoing issue - that few seem to care about for some reason, quite possibly because the policies they implemented or loudly supported are to blame - is the *continuing* alarmingly high number of excess deaths.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1794096/excess-deaths-dangerous-theories

(bold/italic mine)

Seems like something we should be urgently investigating, and yet other than Andrew Bridgen (who gets called names every time he tries to raise the issue in the House of Commons), no-one seems to care.

One of my university acquaintances died suddenly last week (I found out on Facebook) - a perfectly healthy, mid-30s girl. One day there, another not.

Then one of my colleagues said one of her university friends also died last week - same age.

Both causes unknown, both sudden.

I have no idea what it is, but the excess deaths across age groups you do not expect it really is worrying.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Who knows? If those collecting the statistics do, they sure aren't telling us. Either they're not investigating at all for fear of what they'll find, or they have investigated and they're not sharing the data with us, presumably because it would show how terrible the policies of the last three years actually were. Neither option is good.

My bold

I am inclined to widen the suspicion. It could be regardless of the policies at the time. Perhaps an ongoing feature of Covid is more deaths regardless of what we tried to do. It might explain why China stuck to such draconian lock-downs for so long - perhaps they know more than we realise ?. Perhaps China hoped to avoid most of the population ever contracting Covid and istr vaccinations were not widespread in China. Although I am more inclined to believe it was because China did not want to accept that it was inevitably going to become endemic.

Some rumours I have heard is that people with Long Covid are more likely to get Cancer. I have not looked into it but of course Cancer researchers have already realised that there is one (or more) particular viruses that have to be caught before any Cancer a patient might get can get going.

So perhaps a remaining effect of Covid is that the Covid19 virus has some ticking time bombs in it ?.

 

[ainsworth74]

Other thoughts that occur that could well explain the increase are all the delayed diagnoses and treatments. Cancers, heart disease, blood pressure, etc etc. We went for a year or so where people were being cowed to stay away from hospitals. How many cancers were missed and spotted to late which are now reaching their grim conclusion? Equally the general state of the NHS at the moment with waiting lists through the roof, strike action, etc etc. How many people are dying waiting for ambulances, or in ambulances or similar who would have survived four years ago because they could have gotten prompt treatment?

 

[Peter Sarf]

One of my university acquaintances died suddenly last week (I found out on Facebook) - a perfectly healthy, mid-30s girl. One day there, another not.

Then one of my colleagues said one of her university friends also died last week - same age.

Both causes unknown, both sudden.

I have no idea what it is, but the excess deaths across age groups you do not expect it really is worrying.

That is an alarming thing.

Conjecture and brainstorming - Maybe they had both caught a new strain of Covid (or some other virus), maybe it is the long term effects of Covid showing up, maybe the connection is a Covid vaccination, maybe its is after effects of the lockdowns/masks/solvents, maybe they recently consumed something, maybe its the same person.

Other thoughts that occur that could well explain the increase are all the delayed diagnoses and treatments. Cancers, heart disease, blood pressure, etc etc. We went for a year or so where people were being cowed to stay away from hospitals. How many cancers were missed and spotted to late which are now reaching their grim conclusion? Equally the general state of the NHS at the moment with waiting lists through the roof, strike action, etc etc. How many people are dying waiting for ambulances, or in ambulances or similar who would have survived four years ago because they could have gotten prompt treatment?

Indeed the effect of Covid could be the damage done to the NHS and waiting lists during/after the crisis.

I noted that the rise is since 2020 so quite immediate. But I wonder how statistically significant the rise is ?. For instance how far out from normal are the figures - significant or just noticeable. Is it the sort of thing that has happened before or is within the normal range of variance ?.

 

[Crossover]

Ten of us meet Wednesdays & Saturdays in the pub. Over the last couple of days four (two couples) have tested positive for Covid. So far the wife & I have no symptoms.

On the contrary, I have met with various people and been to various events over the last few months. Maybe I have had Covid again, but wouldn't know as we don't have the "need" to test anymore and if I feel under the weather, it is just "one of those things"

 

[MikeWM]

I am inclined to widen the suspicion. It could be regardless of the policies at the time. Perhaps an ongoing feature of Covid is more deaths regardless of what we tried to do. It might explain why China stuck to such draconian lock-downs for so long - perhaps they know more than we realise ?

Which is also entirely plausible and worth considering, but it seems we're not investigating that either.

One confounder to that is (one again) Sweden, who have one of the lowest numbers of excess death in developed countries since 2020. If it was something to do with the original covid infection, it seems the effects should be fairly uniform across countries.

(Worth pointing out that Sweden is also somewhat of an issue for anyone who tries to solely or mostly blame the vaccines, as they are highly vaccinated but are not seeing the same excess death that we are. One possible difference there is that Sweden's policies probably led to more people having had covid before being vaccinated, which may or may not have made any difference).

I suspect there are actually a number of issues interacting here. We did something unprecedented without having any real knowledge of what the consequences may have been. It seems we're seeing some of the consequences now. We really do need to try to work out what the issues are though, and maybe then we could do something about them before even more people die prematurely?

 

[bahnause]

Are the statistics comparable between different countries? I know that some statistics only look three or even less years back. The excessive death rate of COVID would be the new normal in this case. But comparing it to the data before COVID would show a different picture.

Regarding mental health: There are plenty of studies. Mental health suffered during COVID, mostly because of the fear of fincancial impacts, job loss and a general fear of the future. Obviosly settings in different countries are different. An australian study said this:

The observed effects of lockdown on mental health were not driven by the most vulnerable populations; no evidence was found that lockdown was disproportionately associated with worse mental health among older adults living on their own, those with chronic physical or mental health conditions, or those living in the most disadvantaged socioeconomic circumstances. Similar to previous COVID-19 studies our analysis found that the mental health effects of lockdown were greater among those with higher income, which might reflect lockdown restrictions and the associated economic shock having a greater impact on the lifestyle of those in better socioeconomic circumstances. Alternatively, it might be further evidence of the protective effect of the increase in income support payments for those with the least resources. We also found that location and housing circumstances were associated with the magnitude of the mental health effects, with the decline in mental health greatest for those living in urban areas and those living in apartments.
The difference in effect by housing type might be related to access to green and other outdoor spaces.

There was also no evidence of a lockdown effect on the mental health of adolescents aged 15–19 years, despite this concern being widespread in the public health debate.
It must be emphasised that our focus is on the specific effect of lockdown. Although not a focus of the current analysis, our data indicate, in line with conclusions from other research, a substantial decline in the mental health of youth and young adults in 2020 compared with 2011–19; however, this decline was evident for both treatment and control groups and, therefore, not a change attributable to lockdowns.
Others have documented the gendered impact of COVID-19 on mental health.
The current study confirms the gendered nature of the lockdown experience. Research from the UK found that with the closure of childcare and schools, parents working from home or on furlough were undertaking more than 40 additional hours per week of childcare (including teaching) activities. The majority of this additional work was done by females, reinforcing pre-pandemic gender norms and inequalities.
Our results show a clinically relevant decline in mental health associated with the lockdown effect for females with dependent children, suggesting the mental health consequences of lockdown are tied to role overload.
Despite the strengths of our analytic approach, there are limitations. First, the study includes only a single COVID-19 measurement occasion for each individual and, therefore, no conclusion about the duration or persistence of the mental health lockdown effect can be drawn. It can only be interpreted as a short-run effect.
Second, despite the strengths of our natural experiment, the counterfactual is uncertain. The estimated treatment effects were produced in the context of an aggressive COVID-19 suppression policy. It is possible that, in the absence of lockdowns and other associated restrictions to supress virus transmission, the rate of COVID-19 infection would have been higher, which could have led to great COVID-19 morbidity and mortality and resulted in a much greater impact on population mental health.

The Lancet

 

[Richard Scott]

Are the statistics comparable between different countries? I know that some statistics only look three or even less years back. The excessive death rate of COVID would be the new normal in this case. But comparing it to the data before COVID would show a different picture.

Regarding mental health: There are plenty of studies. Mental health suffered during COVID, mostly because of the fear of fincancial impacts, job loss and a general fear of the future. Obviosly settings in different countries are different. An australian study said this:



The Lancet

Interesting they say there's no evidence of effect on 15-19 year old. Working with that age group I would dispute that whole heartedly. Had numerous issues since lockdown compared to prior to lockdowns.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Are the statistics comparable between different countries? I know that some statistics only look three or even less years back. The excessive death rate of COVID would be the new normal in this case. But comparing it to the data before COVID would show a different picture.

Regarding mental health: There are plenty of studies. Mental health suffered during COVID, mostly because of the fear of fincancial impacts, job loss and a general fear of the future. Obviosly settings in different countries are different. An australian study said this:



The Lancet

Interesting reading (what you quoted in your post but has not made it into my quote) and it just goes to illustrate how too much restrictions might still have not done as much harm as letting Covid19 get through the population quickly. The argument was that we were avoiding overloading our NHS - how many countries have a health service as near to breaking point as the UKs before and/or after Covid ?.

Sweden is the nearest to disproving that the precautions helped. But I suppose it depends on population density. If Swedes normally spend less time close together or cooped up in crowded transport then they were nearer to social distancing already. I read somewhere a while back that Swedes have one of the highest proportions of people living alone. So maybe the Swedes did not need lockdowns as much. Also I guess the makeup of the country is more rural. Certainly no cities as big as our bigger cities.

Which makes me wonder. Are the current mortality rates worse in built up areas of the UK or worse in Rural areas ?.

I just thought of those two students again (upthread). How many students were stressed out/depressed by remote tutoring ?. How many felt it has affected their results ?. Have they been overworking to get over the disadvantage ?. Lets face it with Brexit, Covid and the Ukraine war we are heading for a recession. Perhaps they were business studies students and know more about the UKS parlous state than we could cope with.

Brexit is perhaps the only thing that has recently only affected Britain (largely) so maybe that has had an effect on peoples health in the UK !.

Regarding the part in the article about which demographic suffered more. Perhaps those furloughed had a relaxing time. Perhaps some of those well paid managers who were working from home had more stressful jobs managing how their firm coped through Covid.

I know where I worked Brexit and Covid made life absolutely hell. We lost our shipping manager due to Brexit - nervous breakdown when the governments lies about it all going smoothly were getting very obviously wrong. All of a sudden the reality was mountains of paperwork were required for each lorry load of exports. We had three extra staff on site managing all the parked up lorries and keeping traffic flowing round the site. All because a loaded lorry was taking many days or a week to get off site where before it was almost instant. We had extra staff on-site for Covid cleaning duties (them door handles again).

I suppose Covid has made for some interesting experiences, theories and ideas. But it was a life and death matter and now seems to still be responsible for health issues.

 

[Richard Scott]

Interesting reading (what you quoted in your post but has not made it into my quote) and it just goes to illustrate how too much restrictions might still have not done as much harm as letting Covid19 get through the population quickly. The argument was that we were avoiding overloading our NHS - how many countries have a health service as near to breaking point as the UKs before and/or after Covid ?.

But it's one report, these can be biased and pick out what suits them. I work with younger people and lockdowns had a significant effect on their mental health. Perhaps the £400billion blown on lockdowns etc would have been better spent on NHS and it wouldn't be in the position it's in now?

 

[12C]

I’ve been visiting quite a few preserved railways over the summer and I’m surprised at the amount of lines which still have plastic screens between bays of seats in their coaches. Some have been done a bit more tastefully than others, but to me it spoils the experience of travelling in a historic vehicle, being surrounded by clear plastic everywhere. I pay to visit a heritage railway to feel like I’ve stepped back in time to the 1950s/60s, not 2020 (which is a year I would rather forget).

It would be great to see these removed and the coaches returned to a normal appearance, it is 2023 after all.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I’ve been visiting quite a few preserved railways over the summer and I’m surprised at the amount of lines which still have plastic screens between bays of seats in their coaches. Some have been done a bit more tastefully than others, but to me it spoils the experience of travelling in a historic vehicle, being surrounded by clear plastic everywhere. I pay to visit a heritage railway to feel like I’ve stepped back in time to the 1950s/60s, not 2020 (which is a year I would rather forget).

It would be great to see these removed and the coaches returned to a normal appearance, it is 2023 after all.

I suppose so much was spent on the screens that everyone is loathe to remove them.

Time will help people forget why they were needed but I fear it will take a while. Compare to hand sanitisers where many I try to use are empty but no one will remove them ! - I am fed up with pressing a button/lever that many before me have touched for no benefit. Reassurance trumps aethetics.

I see a lot less masks in use these days, getting unusual.

 

[DustyBin]

I suppose so much was spent on the screens that everyone is loathe to remove them.

Time will help people forget why they were needed but I fear it will take a while. Compare to hand sanitisers where many I try to use are empty but no one will remove them ! - I am fed up with pressing a button/lever that many before me have touched for no benefit. Reassurance trumps aethetics.

I see a lot less masks in use these days, getting unusual.

They weren’t……

 

[zero]

I see a lot less masks in use these days, getting unusual.

Are you talking about the UK, because (IMO) it's been unusual to see masks for a long time.

I saw 3 people wearing masks in a car last week and I thought it a bit strange - they then proceeded to park next to a van, steal the tools from it and drive off!

 

[12C]

They weren’t……

Exactly, they were completely pointless in the first place, especially between back to back seats in an otherwise open coach. Like many other things, they were a placebo to try to reassure visitors the venue was ‘Covid safe’, whatever that meant.

To me they completely ruin the experience of travelling in historic rolling stock and they take away the whole atmosphere that preserved railways are supposed to recreate.