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Expenditure on Pensions

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HSTEd

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5) the government enacts measure to provide significant support to parents to raise the birth rate

For some reason this option isn't considered politically correct even though it's the only sensible option.
The real problem with that policy is very few places have actually succeeded!

Noone has yet been demonstrated that they can get the birth rate to rise in a fashion that is sustainable long term.

Both countries normally considered to be on the left and right have tried, and have achieved precious little.
 
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Dai Corner

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Probably a bit over-simplified, but if you want to work for forty years and enjoy twenty years retirement on a pension equal to your salary you'll need to put away half of your income during your working life through an employer's pension and taxation.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Remember govt has a freeze on tax allowances upto Mar 27 currently so its going to drag a lot of pensioners into paying tax.
 

SynthD

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I don't believe any country has made a really serious attempt to dig down into the causes of people not having children and attempted to correct them.
What would a serious attempt look like? You’ve not shown what doing it correctly looks like.
 

eldomtom2

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Noone has yet been demonstrated that they can get the birth rate to rise in a fashion that is sustainable long term.
Then modern society is fundamentally unsustainable.
What would a serious attempt look like? You’ve not shown what doing it correctly looks like.
It would require making increasing birth rates a priority, and conducting detailed research into why people choose not to have children. Many people would like to have more children than they feel they can. Investigating the causes of these perceived limits and then addressing them could yield dividends.
 

SynthD

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conducting detailed research into why people choose not to have children.
Why are you so confident the problem is solvable before the research is started? Do you have a preliminary idea of the result, or just strong hope?
 

brad465

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4) we accept euthanasia for those who need high levels of care / medical help

In practice we are currently going down the road of 1) and 2). Sooner or later we will have to accept 3) and 4) If we want a better standard of living.
We definitely should be looking at No.4, but we also need to move on from this pyramid scheme economic growth model that seems to be the gold standard of "success" in the world, when it is actually the cause of many of our problems today.
This won't be tenable for much longer if demographic projections in the rest of the world are anything to go by.
By 2050 there is likely to be a global shortage of workers, and it will become very difficult to find anyone to immigrate.
In the 19th century there was the scramble for Africa; later this century it will be the scramble for Africans.

I agree, I have a hunch that global population will peak in the early 2030s.
Given how quickly we got from 7 to 8 billion, there would have to be a few catastrophes that lead to a surge in deaths for the population to peak then.
 

HSTEd

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Continuing a system where there are more young people than on the planet is sustainable?
The true carrying capacity of the earth is likely significantly greater than the current population.

Especially since the full power of modern Agriscience has not been turned lose on much of the world. Plus we turn hundreds of million tonnes of food grains into ethanol (or biodiesel) to make people feel less guilt as they pump fuel into their cars (it likely has little positive impact on actual carbon emissions).

A falling population will be very hard to reverse once it is entrenched, and I'd rather not have a deathspiral to extinction.
 

JonathanH

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We definitely should be looking at No.4, but we also need to move on from this pyramid scheme economic growth model that seems to be the gold standard of "success" in the world, when it is actually the cause of many of our problems today.
As you note it is a pyramid scheme.

Economic growth is unfortunately built on the idea of consumption, and a fall in consumption reduces wealth, since wealth is built on the idea that someone places a value on holdings. That leads to less money to spend and the collapse of assets.

Quite how that is alleviated is really unclear.
 

The Ham

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Strictly life expectancy has been falling recently, and at this point in the year, the standardised rate of mortality in 2023 is higher than it was in 2019.

To some extent, that reduction in life expectancy should result in less money needing to be set aside in budgets for the pensions for the future.

Clearly it doesn't change the extra costs resulting from pension increases.

A lot of life expectancy is down to better chances of childhood survival rates rather than people living much longer (although the latter is clearly a factor too).

As such it may be other factors (for example less active lifestyle) which could be down to the shift downwards - as it's not uncommon for life expectancy to be quoted for children being born now rather than for what the average age of death in this year will be.

It takes too long, it increases the problems of house prices and care costs for children and elderly parents. It's not popular with the pensioner voting bloc, because the policy requires diverting funding from those who have five spare rooms to those that can't afford a second bedroom for their child.

A lot of the issue with housing is down to falling household sizes. A retired couple will often occupy the same house as they did when their (say) three children were at home.

Repeat that enough and you find a lot of people with kids squeezed into the smaller houses and people without them rattling around in larger homes.

Continue that for long enough and people look around and see little prospect of having a decent family home so limit the number of children that they have.

Much of the issue is building the wrong sorts of dwellings.

For example my grandmother downsized to her flat because it had decent sized rooms that could accommodate the furniture from her large detached house without having to replace it.

However house builders don't necessarily want to build those sorts of flats, even though they are ideal for people to downsize to (they are often cheaper than bungalows, are much cheaper to heat, don't have large gardens to maintain, don't have the stigma/complications of an over 50's complex and so on).

I've often thought that there's a need to reconsider there types of dwellings we are building rather than repeating designs from the 80's just with more ensuites and more open plan living.

Whilst there's been a noticeable shift towards 3 storey houses and flats, their layouts may need to be looked at to see if there's a better way.

For example, building the high quality spacious flats on the ground floor or building each storey smaller than the one below to provide better outside provision or even building a 3 storey building but with a house built on top of a bungalow (both having a garden, but the bungalow not needing it to be as large as often is the case - and the potential high cost of having to pay someone to maintain it when that becomes too hard for the individual).

Given the land and infrastructure costs are the significant elements of building costs creating higher density living without compromising on the living and outside spaces could actually be a useful way to go, as it could help with keeping the costs of those dwellings down.
 

Magdalia

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Probably a bit over-simplified, but if you want to work for forty years and enjoy twenty years retirement on a pension equal to your salary you'll need to put away half of your income during your working life through an employer's pension and taxation.
If your pension is self funded then yes. But the ratio is bigger than 2 to 1 because most people don't need a pension income at the same level as their salary when working.

As you note it is a pyramid scheme.
But if one generation pays the pensions of the previous generation, and each generation is more productive than the last, that further reduces the amount that needs to be set aside. That's why economic growth matters for everyone. For the system to be sustainable, with a reasonable level of economic growth, it needs roughly 3-4 active workers for each pensioner.

Many countries are already getting into economic trouble because low birth rate is threatening to make their provision for the elderly unsustainable. The most extreme example is South Korea: where each adult woman has on average less than one child. This will lead to rapid depopulation, especially in countries that are resistant or unattractive to inward migration. In this respect the UK is actually relatively well placed: birth rate is not far below the replacement rate so the UK doesn't need much inward migration to keep the population in balance, and relatively speaking it has a more successful record than other countries at assimilating migrants. Going back to the population pyramid, what's needed is a 10 year plan, after each census, to fill the biggest gaps in the pyramid.

In the 19th century there was the scramble for Africa; later this century it will be the scramble for Africans.
Absolutely. But that won't necessarily be through migration. The 21st century scramble for Africa has already started. Various countries have had a head start and are already working on extracting economic value from Africa, mostly while leaving the Africans where they are.
 

eldomtom2

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Continuing a system where there are more young people than on the planet is sustainable?
More young people than what?
Why are you so confident the problem is solvable before the research is started? Do you have a preliminary idea of the result, or just strong hope?
Well if it isn't solvable modern civilization is doomed. I don't see "we don't know if it's solvable" as a reason not to try.
In the 19th century there was the scramble for Africa; later this century it will be the scramble for Africans.
African birth rates are declining as well. This is the awkward fact those who claim the solution is immigration ignore.
 

jfollows

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If your pension is self funded then yes. But the ratio is bigger than 2 to 1 because most people don't need a pension income at the same level as their salary when working.
Exactly true and very important.
Not paying National Insurance, not making contributions to pensions, not paying for petrol for the commute, not paying for lunch and coffee at work all adds up. I am easily as well off on 2/3 of my gross net salary now that I'm retired than before.
 

najaB

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For some reason this option isn't considered politically correct even though it's the only sensible option.
Long term, declining fertility can only be a good thing. The planet doesn't have enough resources to support a human population of 10 billion at a high standard of living.
 

Bald Rick

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More young people than what?

My apologies, my typing / eyesight interface failed.

What I meant to say is - Continuing a system where there are far more young people than old people is sustainable?

(it clearly isn’t).
 

eldomtom2

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Long term, declining fertility can only be a good thing. The planet doesn't have enough resources to support a human population of 10 billion at a high standard of living.
There is a difference between a gradual reduction in population size and an uncontrolled collapse in fertility rates. The choices are not just decline or expansion.
My apologies, my typing / eyesight interface failed.

What I meant to say is - Continuing a system where there are far more young people than old people is sustainable?

(it clearly isn’t).
Why do you not think it is sustainable?
 

davehsug

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The solution is obvious. Don't let the young people get old...
I suspect that Putin, China and their "friends" around the world already have a plan. Although it won't just be the numbers of young people reduced.
 

najaB

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Please provide further details.
Because, unless something stops the large base of young people surviving to becoming a large number of old people, you'll need an even larger base of young people to support them.
 

eldomtom2

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Because, unless something stops the large base of young people surviving to becoming a large number of old people, you'll need an even larger base of young people to support them.
It is much easier to deal with caring for the old when the number of young people compared to old people is stable instead of declining.
 

Dai Corner

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Because, unless something stops the large base of young people surviving to becoming a large number of old people, you'll need an even larger base of young people to support them.
Simply redifine 'young' and 'old' by increasing retirement ages.
 

paul1609

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Carrousel when you get to 30?
The thing that always amuses me was that in the book it was the Carousel at 21, but that wasn't deemed to be acceptable for a Hollywood film so it was changed to 30!
 

renegademaster

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It’s coming whether you like it or not!
Lot of bad trends seem inevitable but I'd rather not just give up without a fight

Long term, declining fertility can only be a good thing. The planet doesn't have enough resources to support a human population of 10 billion at a high standard of living.
The countries below 2 TFR (which now includes India and the richer parts of Africa) need to make their TFR targets around 2 , only those higher should really be focusing any energy on trying to suppress births
 

HSTEd

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Because, unless something stops the large base of young people surviving to becoming a large number of old people, you'll need an even larger base of young people to support them.

If TFR stabilises around 2.1 then the number of old people per young person will stabilise.

IN the current situation, the number of old people per young person will keep climbing all the way to human extinction.
If you think intergenerational issues are bad now, just wait until all the young have to look forward to is working ridiculous hours for a terrible standard of living because of the necessity to prop up care homes full of unproductive retireees.
 
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