Confirmed : HS2 West Midlands-Manchester line to be scrapped and replaced with other projects.

[Krokodil]

With the new line of HS2 now cut back to run only London/Birmingham, and the HS2 part of Euston only having 6 platforms, it will no longer need those hugely long and fast trains. Surprising the Government hasn’t cottoned on to this yet … or have they? Can we expect a further announcement that electrification of the new line is no longer justified and affordable, and the best use of it will be as a dedicated route for heritage steam and diesel services with refurbished old Mk 2 coaches?

Too expensive. Now that the NWC is going to be electrified (stop giggling at the back), some of TfW's 197s will displace their 153s from west Wales. You can have those.

 

[Bletchleyite]

With the new line of HS2 now cut back to run only London/Birmingham, and the HS2 part of Euston only having 6 platforms, it will no longer need those hugely long and fast trains. Surprising the Government hasn’t cottoned on to this yet … or have they? Can we expect a further announcement that electrification of the new line is no longer justified and affordable, and the best use of it will be as a dedicated route for heritage steam and diesel services with refurbished old Mk 2 coaches?

Now come on, obviously it will be loco-hauled 442s.

(Got them in! )

 

[Starmill]

Where are you getting that from?

How quickly do you think an HS2 train can turn around? It's near-impossible to get two turned around in an hour on one platform, even if both are 200m ones. Most will therefore need to be full length sets and the number of trains which can turn around will still be severely limited. The old station had grade separated approaches to cut turnaround times by permitting simultaneous arrival and departure every 5 minutes, but again, no grade separation now will be provided.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How quickly do you think an HS2 train can turn around?

20 minutes should be achievable.

 

[snowball]

Quite.
Similarly to the northern curves at Delta junction, what will happen to the 9km of 4-track railway on viaducts & embankments due to be built from Interchange station up to where the line was due to split off to Leeds/Handsacre?
Will this be downgraded at such a late stage to a conventional 2 track railway? The flying junction itself is likely to be removed too if the Leeds/Eastern leg is totally dead, meaning 4 tracking up to that point would be redundant.

No, the structures are already contracted and being built.

 

[Starmill]

20 minutes should be achievable.

From moving off from the protecting signal to clearing the section on the way back out again, assuming 120 seconds is enough time for that, that gives you 16 minutes to get everyone off the train and off the platform, clean it, then get everyone back on. 1,000 people cannot wait on the platform next to the train while another 1,000 people try to alight and leave. 16 minutes for all that is not achievable. You may be able to compress that for a shorter train but that just wastes further time with more flat platform-end conflicting movements.

 

[Purple Train]

Now come on, obviously it will be loco-hauled 442s.

(Got them in! )

I seem to remember a moderator saying that that phrase now comes with an automatic ten-year ban...

While we're on the subject, what about some of those 373s lying stored at Temple Mills?

In all honesty I think discussion on what will be taken from the WCML is irrelevant. Run it from Old Oak Common, and build just to Birmingham, and I highly doubt that many people will be tempted over, especially given I really don't think 250mph will ever happen. Old Oak is just too far out to make it as a major terminus, even with the Elizabeth Line.

Not that a change of government will help either... or am I just being overly cynical again?

 

[Bletchleyite]

From moving off from the protecting signal to clearing the section on the way back out again, assuming 120 seconds is enough time for that, that gives you 16 minutes to get everyone off the train and off the platform, clean it, then get everyone back on. 1,000 people cannot wait on the platform next to the train while another 1,000 people try to alight and leave. 16 minutes for all that is not achievable. You may be able to compress that for a shorter train but that just wastes further time with more flat platform-end conflicting movements.

So, you don't think 18tph off 11 platforms (the original "full" plan including Eastern leg) was workable, then? As 9tph off 6 is basically the same utilisation.

 

[Starmill]

Quite.
Similarly to the northern curves at Delta junction, what will happen to the 9km of 4-track railway on viaducts & embankments due to be built from Interchange station up to where the line was due to split off to Leeds/Handsacre?
Will this be downgraded at such a late stage to a conventional 2 track railway? The flying junction itself is likely to be removed too if the Leeds/Eastern leg is totally dead, meaning 4 tracking up to that point would be redundant.

The relevant map: https://assets.publishing.service.g...2302693be1/C223-CSI-CV-DPP-030-000008-FPD.pdf

All the redundant parts of the work in phase one will end up just being built and left to sit, without any trains, looking sad and alone.

So, you don't think 18tph off 11 platforms (the original "full" plan including Eastern leg) was workable, then? As 9tph off 6 is basically the same utilisation.

It was only 17tph and that was with grade-separated approaches. Also I'd agree 16tph was the absolute practical upper limit for the 11 platform design yes, and they were being a bit dishonest about that.

 

[Arkeeos]

Worth noting that the government document alludes to the possibility of reopening the Maid Marian line:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/651d64646a6955000d78b2e0/network-north-transforming-british-transport.pdf

And yet this was not put forward for a Strategic Outline Business Case by the Restoring Your Railways fund last year.

Because it only made sense in the context of HS2, to serve the Toton hub, without that its pointless, serving pinxton is a few thousand people.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

All the redundant parts of the work in phase one will end up just being built and left to sit, without any trains, looking sad and alone.

As i said above in #408 they govt are saying

Bearing down on the costs of Phase 1 and only delivering what is essential.

 

[Bald Rick]

A few things to clarify:

Have a look at Google Earth - you'd easily get 6 platforms in the space from P16 (including 16 itself which was to be given over to HS2) to the other side of Cardington St, which means a whole block to develop and sell. That's a lot of money!

It's the value of the land which can be used for development. Six platforms (assuming P16 is included in this as per the original plan) will fit almost within the old station footprint, leaving a whole block to develop and sell for an absolute fortune - this is about as prime as UK building land gets.

Unfortunately the land to the West of Cardington / Melton Street is smack bang in the middle of two protected views: St Paul’s from Primrose Hill and the Palace of Westminster from Parliament St. You cannot build height there, which means it isn’t worth that much, comparitivley speaking. It also makes it ideal for low rise development above, say, a major transport interchange.

Manchester won't be a great deal slower with HS2 trains joining the Trent Valley north of Lichfield.

Just 30 minutes or so slower.

Its also got a devolved assembly to fund it if they want that.

The Welsh Government does not have delegated funding for rail infrastructure.

15 minute turnarounds and one platform in reserve. It's tight but it is potentially doable, although it will require compromises and more complex train planning.

The train planning is easy. The compromises are not, especially the reliability implications of 15 minute turnarounds when most trains are spending much of their journey on the classic network.

what will the cost be of allowing HS2 compatiable trains to run to Manchester?

nothing additional to what is already committed. All HS2 trains were already proposed to be able to use the existing network.

With so much in tunnels, what proportion of Handsacre-Euston will actually be high speed? Daft question: because they are smaller, could classic-compatibles go quicker in tunnels than captive units?

All of it. Most of the tunnels are 300km/h or more (where the trains can use it).

Like they have to do now. We're just asking Euston to cope with what it has coped with since the mid 2000s.

But we’re not. There will be more trains into Euston, specifically using the paths released by HS2 south of Rugby.

I would also have a fiver on the contract with Alstom & Hitachi to be varied to have most trains at a length around 250 metres to replicate the length of 11 car Pendolinos. But obviously with many more seats.

250m long trains would also simply Euston somewhat.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Just 30 minutes or so slower.

or 30mins faster than now though that will provide plenty enough umpf to ridership

But we’re not. There will be more trains into Euston, specifically using the paths released by HS2 south of Rugby.

where is demand from those trains going to come from other than retention of some sort of service provision for Coventry Bhm. Int?

I would also have a fiver on the contract with Alstom & Hitachi to be varied to have most trains at a length around 250 metres to replicate the length of 11 car Pendolinos. But obviously with many more seats.

250m long trains would also simply Euston somewhat.

would seem utterly sensible to have one standard fleet that can go anywhere

 

[Starmill]

or 30mins faster than now though that will provide plenty enough umpf to ridership

Yes, probably far, far too much for the available capacity too. So there will be a need to desperately push more and more people through price over to St Pancras and Kings Cross, where there's a choice between the routes. Obviously those two have lots of currently unused free capacity for people to use though.

 

[brad465]

Not sure what's more annoying: today's announcement or the fact I can't keep up with all the HS2 discussions on this site.

 

[Starmill]

As i said above in #408 they govt are saying

It's too late though. Euston has been on hold for years but the structures you're talking about have already been bought and paid for. Can't be cancelled now.

 

[Bald Rick]

where is demand from those trains going to come from other than retention of some sort of service provision for Coventry Bhm. Int?

As per the HS2 business case, but essentially from Northampton / MK and stations inwards to London.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But we’re not. There will be more trains into Euston, specifically using the paths released by HS2 south of Rugby.

And it'll have 21 platforms rather than the pre-HS2-work 18, plus the "old" side will be used at a far less intensive level than now, more like the 80s.

 

[slowroad]

Won’t OOC have excess capacity following cancellation of eastern leg? Why not terminate a couple of trains/ hour there?

 

[Tractor2018]

Glad it's been cancelled.

The whole sell of it was because the extra capacity was needed.

They've told staff the numbers and income aren't there to grant a proper payrise. If that's the case, the numbers aren't there, there's no need for any of the extra capacity - cancel the whole damned thing.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

A few things to clarify:







Unfortunately the land to the West of Cardington / Melton Street is smack bang in the middle of two protected views: St Paul’s from Primrose Hill and the Palace of Westminster from Parliament St. You cannot build height there, which means it isn’t worth that much, compartively. It also makes it ideal for low rise development above, say, a major transport interchange.




Just 30 minutes or so slower.



The Welsh Government does not have delegated funding for rail infrastructure.



The train planning is easy. The compromises are not, especially the reliability implications of 15 minute turnarounds when most trains are spending much of their journey on the classic network.



nothing additional to what is already committed. All HS2 trains were already proposed to be able to use the existing network.



All of it. Most of the tunnels are 300km/h or more (where the trains can use it).




But we’re not. There will be more trains into Euston, specifically using the paths released by HS2 south of Rugby.

I would also have a fiver on the contract with Alstom & Hitachi to be varied to have most trains at a length around 250 metres to replicate the length of 11 car Pendolinos. But obviously with many more seats.

250m long trains would also simply Euston somewhat.

Makes sense to have the trains same length as existing stock, question I have is where are all these Extra passengers going to come from, are the pendolinos full as the moment.

If and the big if extra funds are released to improve existing infrastructure then it would be a good thing but I'm sceptical as would the Tories waste political capital if they're not saving money and therefore these pipe dreams are just that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would also have a fiver on the contract with Alstom & Hitachi to be varied to have most trains at a length around 250 metres to replicate the length of 11 car Pendolinos. But obviously with many more seats.

250m long trains would also simply Euston somewhat.

300m with an efficient interior design would provide a significant capacity increase - the Pendolino isn't as bad as the Voyager but is fairly inefficient in layout. The 80x manages to cram in far more seats in far higher comfort.

 

[Bald Rick]

Less trains, less depot space, increased headways, lower power provisions

Conceivably it could be more trains, at least when just considering the west side of the country. With the journey to Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow being about 20-30 minutes longer, there will need to be more diagrams for the same level of service. The service level will, obviously, be slightly less, but will that be enough to offset the increase?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Could have been worse he could have used it for future tax cuts at least he laid out an alternative plan and i dont see Labour ripping that up. Today is about trying to exploit the politics and that includes the City Mayors as well as the days and weeks march on i suspect a different tune will be heard.

 

[Arkeeos]

Could have been worse he could have used it for future tax cuts at least he laid out an alternative plan and i dont see Labour ripping that up. Today is about trying to exploit the politics and that includes the City Mayors as well as the days and weeks march on i suspect a different tune will be heard.

It is for tax cuts, the "plan" is an investment cut from what was otherwise promised, it is also not a plan, its a mish mash of uncosted proposals in a hastily written document. The IRP was barely a plan, this isn't a plan its a document that literally anyone could have written with zero consultation from anyone knowledgeable.

 

[Bald Rick]

Makes sense to have the trains same length as existing stock, question I have is where are all these Extra passengers going to come from, are the pendolinos full as the moment.

Mine was heaving last night, southbound into Euston…

Could have been worse he could have used it for future tax cuts at least he laid out an alternative plan and i dont see Labour ripping that up.

It’s politics at its worst - a new government can’t possibly reverse the decision - ie cancel scores of small projects all over the country to pay for a line between Lichfield and Manchester. And there won’t be money to reinstate it and do the other projects.

Although some of the projects on the list are firmly in the “let’s put it in (snigger) and see how the next Government gets out of it” category.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Mine was heaving last night, southbound into Euston…

In my experience they can be busy but standees are very rare other than a few super-busy trains on a Friday evening (reduced by the removal of Friday off peak restrictions) and commuter time trains used by MKC commuters. Capacity is quite well matched to demand, possibly other than the Liverpool and Glasgow, the former is getting a second train, the latter perhaps needs more people pricing onto the via Brum service.

 

[geoffk]

I'm sure Drakeford is plotting a ULEZ and 10mph speed limit plan that will raise the money as we speak.

I believe he'll be collaborating with Jeremy Clarkson on a new TV series "Second Gear".

 

[JKF]

Quelle surprise, Netwrok Rail wasn't consulted on this Network North plan:

https://twitter.com/christianwolmar/status/1709575467546587275

Why would they be? I’m sure Dominic Raab’s local pet shop owner can set up a consultancy to sort it all out, that approach worked (to some extent) with Covid. Enough of experts.

 

[21C101]

Mine was heaving last night, southbound into Euston…



It’s politics at its worst - a new government can’t possibly reverse the decision - ie cancel scores of small projects all over the country to pay for a line between Lichfield and Manchester. And there won’t be money to reinstate it and do the other projects.

Correction "there won’t be money to reinstate it or do [most of] the other projects"


"Britain will spend 10.4% of total government revenue servicing its debts in 2023, Fitch has forecast, at a total of £110bn. Interest payments on a 12-month basis reached £117bn in May 2023, double the level in the period to September 2021"

The age of free money is over. 30 year gilt yields have just hit a 20 year high of 5.1% (far higher than under Truss and yields are still rising (and not just in the UK. US is same story.

Thats the elephant in the room.

Source:

UK faces highest debt interest costs in developed world

The UK faces the highest debt interest bill in the developed world this year, according to Fitch Ratings, due to its high proportion of inflation-linked debt.

www.investmentweek.co.uk