RENFE considering London to Barcelona (and perhaps beyond) services

[Snow1964]

Very unusual little snippet has surfaced in Portugal, following talks about high speed line Madrid to Lisbon, seems as well as RENFE (Spanish rail operator) looking to go to Portugal, they are also eyeing up services to London via Barcelona. This would be a third competitor if the Mobico-Coscan Family service gets going

According to La Información The Spanish-Portuguese summit held last March has resulted in an agreement for the governments of Spain and Portugal to improve rail connectivity between both countries, which is currently practically non-existent. This pact opens the door to the return to Lisbon of Renfe, which until the arrival of the pandemic provided a train-hotel service that disappeared due to its operating deficit. Sánchez and Costa endorsed in Lanzarote a series of agreements to improve routes on both sides of the border that also respond to the demands for liberalisation and integration of systems proposed by the European Commission.

More train operators want to use the Channel tunnel

For UK travellers more services using the Channel Tunnel are critical. At present London Paris is the main option if you are heading South, but it's not just Renfe who wants to operate from London to the South of Europe direct. UK National Express have formed a consortium now called Mobico, which has continental partners, including Spanish consortium Cosmen and potentially French manufacturer Alstom.

Sleeper trains across Europe are making a comeback

As travellers want to be more eco-friendly, sleeper trains are on track to be one of the most popular ways to get around Europe. The past couple of years has seen the launch of many new overnight routes though mainly in central Europe. There are several new companies such as Midnight Trains who are targeting Southern Europe, including Portugal.

The demand is there, we just need the rails to be completed. The ‘dream’ route? London, Barcelona, Madrid, and Lisbon with no train changes.

High speed rail, the missing link

Spanish rail operator Renfe are pushing ahead with high-speed rail, high-speed trains and connections into France, the UK and Portugal. Renfe are clearly a force to be reckoned with, they will even launch a testing bullet train in November.

www.theportugalnews.com

 

[StephenHunter]

The Chinese have some 250km/h sleeper trains, although they use the classic lines. That could be a possibility for services to Spain.

 

[popeter45]

The Chinese have some 250km/h sleeper trains, although they use the classic lines. That could be a possibility for services to Spain.

already seem to have moved on back to loco+carriages with the CR200J

 

[Bald Rick]

The ‘dream’ route? London, Barcelona, Madrid, and Lisbon with no train changes.

Yep, that is a complete dream. Even with a high speed line all the way (ie completion of Montepllier - Perpignan and Madrid - Lisbon) it wouldn’t be less than 11 hours by a 320km/h capable train, and the best part of 24hrs on a sleeper.

Or 2hrs from Gatwick.

 

[Trainbike46]

Yep, that is a complete dream. Even with a high speed line all the way (ie completion of Montepllier - Perpignan and Madrid - Lisbon) it wouldn’t be less than 11 hours by a 320km/h capable train, and the best part of 24hrs on a sleeper.

Or 2hrs from Gatwick.

hey, who knows, maybe they're planning a 320 km/h sleeper train

*looks at Renfe's recent sleeper train record*

oh, yep that isn't happening

 

[popeter45]

hey, who knows, maybe they're planning a 320 km/h sleeper train

*looks at Renfe's recent sleeper train record*

oh, yep that isn't happening

not to mention how the french HSL's shut overnight
if you were THAT desprate for a direct Lisbon-London link in one go it would need to be HSL to Madrid then slow overnight to Lisbon
London 14:00 (15:00 CET) - Madrid 00:00 - Lisbon 8:00

 

[Snow1964]

Yep, that is a complete dream. Even with a high speed line all the way (ie completion of Montepllier - Perpignan and Madrid - Lisbon) it wouldn’t be less than 11 hours by a 320km/h capable train, and the best part of 24hrs on a sleeper.

Or 2hrs from Gatwick.

Maybe I am being crazy, but do many actually enjoy modern budget airlines when they have holiday luggage, or is it something to be endured. The flight might be 2 hours but often nearer 4 hours with security etc, plus time to/from airports

Around school holidays can often by £400+ return by air, so a competitive high capacity train could work if price is right. Some of those advance train fares are down to €9 in Spain, and under €20 for French sectors. If can get 2-3hour (250-300 mile) sectors at that price might be able to get a return ticket starting from nearer £130. Might be lot more, but if the high speed rail operators start taking on the budget airlines in decade, who knows. In theory the economics of a 700-1300 seat making one round trip per day should be could against a 200 seat plane making 3 round trips

 

[Bald Rick]

Maybe I am being crazy, but do many actually enjoy modern budget airlines when they have holiday luggage, or is it something to be endured. The flight might be 2 hours but often nearer 4 hours with security etc, plus time to/from airports

Around school holidays can often by £400+ return by air, so a competitive high capacity train could work if price is right. Some of those advance train fares are down to €9 in Spain, and under €20 for French sectors. If can get 2-3hour (250-300 mile) sectors at that price might be able to get a return ticket starting from nearer £130. Might be lot more, but if the high speed rail operators start taking on the budget airlines in decade, who knows. In theory the economics of a 700-1300 seat making one round trip per day should be could against a 200 seat plane making 3 round trips

I think most people would much rather endure 2hrs in an airport and 2hrs on an A320 than an hour in the station and 11 hours on a train.

You can get low advance fares for holiday times with the airlines too, no reason to think railways would do anyhting different.

Many years ago on these pages i costed up a likely price of a one way sleeper from London to Barcelona / Madrid (such that the operator would make a profit) and it was £500 one way. No reason to think that would be any different now. Day train would need to average about £250 (each way).

 

[Sorcerer]

Maybe I am being crazy, but do many actually enjoy modern budget airlines when they have holiday luggage, or is it something to be endured. The flight might be 2 hours but often nearer 4 hours with security etc, plus time to/from airports

For me personally, even with a short sub-three hour flight from here to Italy, I did not enjoy flying low cost Ryanair anymore than I did on a nine hour flight to Orlando with Virgin Atlantic, nor even the seven hour flight to Dubai with Emirates. The only thing that made it more bearable was knowing it would be over sooner than the other two. Everything else was still a grind, so I would definitely lean towards the idea that people only accept budget airlines as an absolute necessity for their holidays rather than actually enjoying it. Maybe I'm projecting here but I don't see why most people would enjoy going through two hours to three hours of checks and waiting to be cramped inside a long aluminium tube like cattle or a tin of sardines. The only time that I can actually imagine enjoying flying is if I'm travelling business or first class, which unfortunately for most people is a luxury and not a realistic prospect.

 

[dutchflyer]

Whilst by now sitting in transit in ZUR-CH airport, waiting the next 10hrs+ flite and just done a short, NON-Ryan haul:
1.as if anyone going by train has no transport before after these main stations
-in some cases the airport at a costa may actually be closer by accomm to stay as trains
2.RYAN has at least a pretty good on-time record, also caused by them avoiding big congested airports-and this also makes shorter times for security& all that. Trains have no security-also in the real sense (thieves can also get on) but (after having done a 3-mo and then 2-mo InterRail at the 50% discount price last autumn and this spring) being on time is highly variable and uncertain-pus that there is NO servic whatsoever in those cases (though much later I noted I once even got a voucher for some drink by SJ on heavy delays-saw that only when out of Sweden)
FRankly, I do not give too much for these parrotting (allways all the same all the same and repeat) about this pro/contra fly/rail.

 

[AlbertBeale]

Yep, that is a complete dream. Even with a high speed line all the way (ie completion of Montepllier - Perpignan and Madrid - Lisbon) it wouldn’t be less than 11 hours by a 320km/h capable train, and the best part of 24hrs on a sleeper.

Or 2hrs from Gatwick.

The return of the previously possible 24hours London-Lisbon (albeit with 2 changes) would suit me just fine - Eurostar London-Paris; TGV Paris-Hendaye/Irun; sleeper from the border to Lisbon. No faff with going via Madrid - perfectly restful journey - and the reason I'd never have dreamt of flying to Lisbon. No new HS lines needed.

 

[Citybreak1]

I hate low budget airlines or any to be fair. Not a comfortable experience the train is better. I think the other company has a better chance Paris busy route station already set up. Any future destinations I see Germany in the way they expanded to Amsterdam. Anything else it is too far away to be profitable. It might be possible to have the same operator with a change in Paris maybe sell ticket via same operator?

 

[philosopher]

Yep, that is a complete dream. Even with a high speed line all the way (ie completion of Montepllier - Perpignan and Madrid - Lisbon) it wouldn’t be less than 11 hours by a 320km/h capable train, and the best part of 24hrs on a sleeper.

Or 2hrs from Gatwick.

Assuming this is a day train, use of this train I think would be limited to those who have a big fear of flying (as in they refuse to fly at all), those particularly concerned about their carbon footprint or those who really like long train trips and have quite a bit of time on their hands. I suspect this market for Barcelona may not be large enough for even one return train journey, but I could be wrong.

 

[RT4038]

For all the usual reasons (immigration, security, length of journey/likely fare and resulting size of market) I suspect it is a lot of hot air and a non-starter.

 

[Austriantrain]

For all the usual reasons (immigration, security, length of journey/likely fare and resulting size of market) I suspect it is a lot of hot air and a non-starter.

The only reasonable operator could be SNCF, using Eurostar for all the facilities needed.

Other than that, if SNCF fills two TGV a day from Paris to Barcelona and could easily fill more (and Paris has quite a lot of low-cost airlines too), this would work here too, *if* one accepts a Lille shuffle going towards London.

Note that as always, only a minority of passengers would travel the whole way.

Lisbon is a step too far though for the moment

 

[HS2isgood]

The only reasonable operator could be SNCF, using Eurostar for all the facilities needed.

Other than that, if SNCF fills two TGV a day from Paris to Barcelona and could easily fill more (and Paris has quite a lot of low-cost airlines too), this would work here too, *if* one accepts a Lille shuffle going towards London.

Note that as always, only a minority of passengers would travel the whole way.

Lisbon is a step too far though for the moment

A Marne la Vallée shuffle would be better, as you keep the Marne to London market.

 

[Austriantrain]

A Marne la Vallée shuffle would be better, as you keep the Marne to London market.

As I understand it, there has never been a UK border outpost there (the Eurodisney E* ran under an exception where passengers were checked on arrival in London). So a lot of additional costs.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

As others have mentioned up-thread, I absolutely cannot stand flying, especially low cost short haul. I’d rather get the Victoria Line to St. Pancras then trek to Luton or Stansted. Airports are very stressful places. Flying is incredibly uncomfortable and stressful in itself. I would happily do a 5-7 hour train journey over a 2hr flight. 11 would be too long though.

As I understand it, there has never been a UK border outpost there (the Eurodisney E* ran under an exception where passengers were checked on arrival in London). So a lot of additional costs.

That method should be used more often to encourage network expansion

 

[Austriantrain]

That method should be used more often to encourage network expansion

It certainly should, but it won’t be. The UK won’t accept checks on arrival and that policy is not going to change anytime soon (no matter who is in government).

Sad, but true and wishing it changed is just spilled milk.

I might note that a third-party operator may well have a very good case under EU competition law to force E* to give access to their station facilities on the French side. I would think that UK law would be similar (and even if not, the European Commission will not be shy to go after E* because of St Pancras, since it affects the Common Market).

 

[RT4038]

I might note that a third-party operator may well have a very good case under EU competition law to force E* to give access to their station facilities on the French side. I would think that UK law would be similar (and even if not, the European Commission will not be shy to go after E* because of St Pancras, since it affects the Common Market).

I am sure E* would be under pressure to do so, at both ends, but with the mother of all arguments over capacity and fair contribution towards costs. That argument could delay things quite a while.

The only reasonable operator could be SNCF, using Eurostar for all the facilities needed.

Other than that, if SNCF fills two TGV a day from Paris to Barcelona and could easily fill more (and Paris has quite a lot of low-cost airlines too),

If it were true that SNCF could 'easily' fill more TGV trains between Paris and Barcelona [whilst retaining the current profit levels?], then why would they not do that first, before considering the more difficult London market? I suspect that the truth is closer to 'easily' not being the right word....

A journey from London to Barcelona will take around 9 and a half hours towards 10 hours (including the one hour check-in time at London/'Lille shuffle' on the return). This length of journey time, plus the likely average single fare of £250+ will deter all but the most hardy of passengers, and I bet they won't make the journey that often. The necessary timings for that length of journey will restrict pre and post connecting journeys to a fairly small radius around the terminals. There will be some passengers alighting intermediately, but is that going to be sufficient to fill a E* train consistently through the year? Who (and more importantly how many?) are the people going to pay that kind of fare, especially the higher fares (£400+) to balance out any cheaper offers? I just don't see how it can make economic sense.

Perhaps the best way to find out the market would be to run one Barcelona-Paris train into the Gare du Nord for a 'Paris Shuffle' and see how the economics work out?

 

[Austriantrain]

If it were true that SNCF could 'easily' fill more TGV trains between Paris and Barcelona [whilst retaining the current profit levels?], then why would they not do that first, before considering the more difficult London market? I suspect that the truth is closer to 'easily' not being the right word....

I would argue that the sky-high prices that SNCF can charge on these trains and the fact they do sell out indicate two things:
- there *is* a separate market for long-distance passenger trains; otherwise, these prices could not be charged since passengers would switch to airlines;
- SNCF is milking the markt and one could even suspect anti-competitive behaviour by restricting supply (I will be generous here and suggest that SNCF lacks TGV sets at the moment, which they do).

It is no surprise that RENFE wants to run in competition; as did Trenitalia between Paris and Milan, also a route that at a first glance does not seem that attractive.

So I stand by what I wrote - but I know I will not convince anyone, because there is a fundamental belief on this forum that long-distance international day trains cannot work, despite plenty of evidence that they do (because they do run, and their number is rather on the increase).

 

[Trainbike46]

I would argue that the sky-high prices that SNCF can charge on these trains and the fact they do sell out indicate two things:
- there *is* a separate market for long-distance passenger trains; otherwise, these prices could not be charged since passengers would switch to airlines;
- SNCF is milking the markt and one could even suspect anti-competitive behaviour by restricting supply (I will be generous here and suggest that SNCF lacks TGV sets at the moment, which they do).

It is no surprise that RENFE wants to run in competition; as did Trenitalia between Paris and Milan, also a route that at a first glance does not seem that attractive.

So I stand by what I wrote - but I know I will not convince anyone, because there is a fundamental belief on this forum that long-distance international day trains cannot work, despite plenty of evidence that they do (because they do run, and their number is rather on the increase).

I think you are making a mistake in assuming that this forum has a unified belief; in my experience it is rather the opposite

Personally, I could see a daily London-Barcelona train work (and if it does well, extra trains could be added obviously), but there is a rather big difference between London-Barcelona and London-Lisbon via Barcelona and Madrid. It may be worth considering adding some South of France stops in a Barcelona service.

There are connections that I suspect will have better chances though, not in the least London-Geneva, London-Marseille (with stops as previously), and possibly London-Bordeaux.

Though obviously my preferred option would be for all those to start, so let's hope Renfe follows through on London-Barcelona

 

[RT4038]

I would argue that the sky-high prices that SNCF can charge on these trains and the fact they do sell out indicate two things:
- there *is* a separate market for long-distance passenger trains; otherwise, these prices could not be charged since passengers would switch to airlines;
- SNCF is milking the markt and one could even suspect anti-competitive behaviour by restricting supply (I will be generous here and suggest that SNCF lacks TGV sets at the moment, which they do).

It is no surprise that RENFE wants to run in competition; as did Trenitalia between Paris and Milan, also a route that at a first glance does not seem that attractive.

So I stand by what I wrote - but I know I will not convince anyone, because there is a fundamental belief on this forum that long-distance international day trains cannot work, despite plenty of evidence that they do (because they do run, and their number is rather on the increase).

I do not know whether SNCF are 'milking' the market or not - the fact that RENFE wish to start competing is not in itself evidence that there is sufficient market for both operators to succeed financially. Nor is the fact that SNCF sell out on some days evidence that the year round service, taking the peaks and troughs, is being 'milked'. There is no evidence yet that both SNCF and Trenitalia are making money on the Paris-Milan service; the fact that they are both operating does not necessarily mean that it is financially sustainable in the long term.

I am not sure that there is much evidence to show that long distance international day trains do work, especially considering the step change between a 6.5hr trip and a 9.5hr one, and the particular circumstances of running to and from the UK that cause inconvenience to passengers and higher costs to be covered. Just because there may be some 9.5hr long international day trains elsewhere (where?) the circumstances will probably be subtly different, and I'm not sure they are sustainably on the increase. I'd love to be proved wrong though.

 

[Austriantrain]

I am not sure that there is much evidence to show that long distance international day trains do work, especially considering the step change between a 6.5hr trip and a 9.5hr one, and the particular circumstances of running to and from the UK that cause inconvenience to passengers and higher costs to be covered. Just because there may be some 9.5hr long international day trains elsewhere (where?) the circumstances will probably be subtly different, and I'm not sure they are sustainably on the increase. I'd love to be proved wrong though.

Well, you are proved wrong every day in many parts of Europe. Just see the recent Danish Plans to introduce Copenhague - Amsterdam/Prague trains.

The reason why international long-distance day trains work is because they are primarily filled by passengers travelling between intermediate stations, many of which would not have direct services otherwise; and very often, there are no competitive flights available. These trains are not mainly used by end-to-end users (a very important difference to night trains). For instance, the Paris - Barcelona trains carry many people from Paris to the South of France and from the South of France to Spain.

And no, there are no subtle differences. As long as people live there, there will be demand (I do think you underestimate the very high number of people who travel regularly over internal EU borders). The trick to make such services work is to produce them economically. Some railway companies are just better at knowing how to do it than others. And of course, London is tricky because of the peculiarities of the route, and really only doable with the "Lille shuffle" at the moment.

 

[RT4038]

Well, you are proved wrong every day in many parts of Europe. Just see the recent Danish Plans to introduce Copenhague - Amsterdam/Prague trains.

The reason why international long-distance day trains work is because they are primarily filled by passengers travelling between intermediate stations, many of which would not have direct services otherwise; and very often, there are no competitive flights available. These trains are not mainly used by end-to-end users (a very important difference to night trains). For instance, the Paris - Barcelona trains carry many people from Paris to the South of France and from the South of France to Spain.

And no, there are no subtle differences. As long as people live there, there will be demand (I do think you underestimate the very high number of people who travel regularly over internal EU borders). The trick to make such services work is to produce them economically. Some railway companies are just better at knowing how to do it than others. And of course, London is tricky because of the peculiarities of the route, and really only doable with the "Lille shuffle" at the moment.

So yes there are subtle differences between a train going from London to Barcelona taking 9.5 hours and others wholly in continental Europe - in particular that it does not pass through any really major city (possibly Lyon) - aside from Lille all of them are also served by other trains on the same route which will limit the amount of churn, and on your own admission the London section is tricky (which will reduce the attractiveness and therefore the trade). I am discounting such a train picking up/setting down at a Paris suburban station, as I do not think passengers will board a London bound train train there to then spend an hour doing the 'Lille shuffle' and leaving empty seats to and from London will hardly help the economics.

I am not sure how much I underestimate the number of people regularly travelling across EU borders - there are plenty of examples of infrequent train services doing just that.......

 

[Trainbike46]

So yes there are subtle differences between a train going from London to Barcelona taking 9.5 hours and others wholly in continental Europe - in particular that it does not pass through any really major city (possibly Lyon) - aside from Lille all of them are also served by other trains on the same route which will limit the amount of churn, and on your own admission the London section is tricky (which will reduce the attractiveness and therefore the trade). I am discounting such a train picking up/setting down at a Paris suburban station, as I do not think passengers will board a London bound train train there to then spend an hour doing the 'Lille shuffle' and leaving empty seats to and from London will hardly help the economics.

I am not sure how much I underestimate the number of people regularly travelling across EU borders - there are plenty of examples of infrequent train services doing just that.......

On London-Barcelona with a lille shuffle it would not be impossible to stop at marne la vallee / disney as well as lyon, valence, montpellier and perpigan. If you also sell london-lille tickets any seats used by lille-other destinations could also be used on lille-london, obviously passengers whose destination is Lille would not have to go through the lille shuffle, as that is for london-bound passengers only.

Alternatively, because of security requirements on high-speed trains in Spain, there might not be a need to have separate security checks for london, so the extra facilities needed would be limited to passport controls (with Spanish exit checks and UKBF entry checks), but that does effectively limit it to an end-to-end service

 

[AlterEgo]

The return of the previously possible 24hours London-Lisbon (albeit with 2 changes) would suit me just fine - Eurostar London-Paris; TGV Paris-Hendaye/Irun; sleeper from the border to Lisbon. No faff with going via Madrid - perfectly restful journey - and the reason I'd never have dreamt of flying to Lisbon. No new HS lines needed.

I've done that journey and it was marvellous. I was so sad to see the TrenHotels removed.

 

[RT4038]

On London-Barcelona with a lille shuffle it would not be impossible to stop at marne la vallee / disney as well as lyon, valence, montpellier and perpigan. If you also sell london-lille tickets any seats used by lille-other destinations could also be used on lille-london, obviously passengers whose destination is Lille would not have to go through the lille shuffle, as that is for london-bound passengers only.

Yes, but the London-Lille market is small, and already catered for by other trains. It would not be impossible to stop at marne la vallee, but in the northbound direction the 'Lille shuffle' will give long journey time and inconvenience for those passengers which would make it less attractive (and therefore difficult to sell at an attractive yield),. The market for the other places you mention to Barcelona must be quite small, and already catered for by other trains.

Alternatively, because of security requirements on high-speed trains in Spain, there might not be a need to have separate security checks for london, so the extra facilities needed would be limited to passport controls (with Spanish exit checks and UKBF entry checks), but that does effectively limit it to an end-to-end service

I am not sure what advantage that would be really? Filling an end to end only service would definitely be a big ask..... and still have the 'Lille shuffle' , just possibly not with your bags.

 

[Trainbike46]

Yes, but the London-Lille market is small, and already catered for by other trains. It would not be impossible to stop at marne la vallee, but in the northbound direction the 'Lille shuffle' will give long journey time and inconvenience for those passengers which would make it less attractive (and therefore difficult to sell at an attractive yield),. The market for the other places you mention to Barcelona must be quite small, and already catered for by other trains.

Currently there is no direct london service to any South of France destinations. There was a summer service to some of them until COVID, so while demand is unlikely to be massive, it is similarly unlikely to be particularly small. Running some parts of the route with empty seats isn't a disaster either (for example, at least half the train is empty on Amsterdam-Brussels for London-bound trains), so selling say half a train to london from Barcelona, with the other half filled with tickets from the south-of-France, Lille and disney stops, plus some tickets between those points (so not going to London) could possibly be economic. Lille offers connection opportunities as well.

I am not sure what advantage that would be really? Filling an end to end only service would definitely be a big ask..... and still have the 'Lille shuffle' , just possibly not with your bags.

The suggestion was to check passports while boarding (with UKBF and spanish equivalent) at Barcelona, so no need for a Lille shuffle if going for that option (and that is the advantage). I agree that filling a train completely (or at least sufficiently for it to be economic to run) with end-to-end traffic only will be a challenge.

And as I stated earlier, I think there are other cities that are more likely to have a sufficiently large market for london connections, including Geneva. Barcelona is, in my view, by far the likeliest candidate out of all the options on the Iberian peninsula - as it is the closest major city that is popular for visits to/from the uk

 

[RT4038]

Currently there is no direct london service to any South of France destinations. There was a summer service to some of them until COVID, so while demand is unlikely to be massive, it is similarly unlikely to be particularly small. Running some parts of the route with empty seats isn't a disaster either (for example, at least half the train is empty on Amsterdam-Brussels for London-bound trains), so selling say half a train to london from Barcelona, with the other half filled with tickets from the south-of-France, Lille and disney stops, plus some tickets between those points (so not going to London) could possibly be economic. Lille offers connection opportunities as well.

Running some parts of the route with empty seats may or may not be a disaster, depending on the yield of the tickets that have been sold, and whether there are marked peaks and troughs throughout the year. Whatever, I think it unlikely that fares would be cheap. Bearing in mind the cost of setting up this service (which could run into millions of pounds), let alone the costs of the owning the train and operating it, this is going to be a massive risk. 'Could possibly be economic' doesn't sound very convincing.

The suggestion was to check passports while boarding (with UKBF and spanish equivalent) at Barcelona, so no need for a Lille shuffle if going for that option (and that is the advantage). I agree that filling a train completely (or at least sufficiently for it to be economic to run) with end-to-end traffic only will be a challenge.

I expect having UKBF and Spanish equivalent, plus security and sealed off platform, for one train a day at Barcelona would be grotesquely expensive per passenger and sink the train economically.