LNER to pilot removal of Off-Peak tickets

[Bletchleyite]

Wouldn't the data have been skewed since COVID was an unusual scenario, though?

No, because it was also in place for periods of relative normality.

 

[johncrossley]

Referring back to my earlier post #1,103 in this thread...

Looking at the 1100 tomorrow (Mon 12 Feb) for a Kings Cross to Newcastle journey, this is what I was presented with a little earlier this evening - my screen snip is timestamped at 20:09...
View attachment 152090

So apparently 6 seats in Standard are available (and seemingly became available since my first post in the early hours of Sunday morning, when only 2 seats or at least tickets were shown as available even for the Fully Flex aka Anytime fare).


But checking again just now, at 21:40, and even the Standard class Fully Flex fare is shown as "not available"...
View attachment 152091

Have all those supposed 6 seats been reserved in the last hour and a half? And by people paying for the full whack Fully Flex fare? (Or could some of them have been flexing their Semi-Flex tickets and changing reservations to travel on an earlier or later train?)

It all just seems a bit murky and mysterious - particularly the conflation of remaining seats available, and remaining tickets available. But also where did those 6 seats / tickets, available just a little earlier this evening, go?

Not to worry, the LNER app helpfully offers fully flexible fares at £299.60. The Cross Country app doesn't even tell you the seats are First Class unless you select the journey. But if I get a Super Off Peak to Manors at the ticket machine no doubt I could find an unoccupied seat in Standard Class on that train.

 

[takno]

Of course with BA you also have to consider a return journey to get a fully representative figure, since they don't offer single leg pricing.

If returning any day until the Saturday of that week, the outward fares drop to £151 on the 06:10 and £101 on the 07:30 to Heathrow. Meanwhile the LCY fares reduce to £371 on the 06:40 and 07:30 and £131 on the 07:00.

Prices are even lower (considerably so in the case of LCY - fares drop to £121 and £82, respectively) if you have a Saturday night stay in your booking.

The smart money, of course, is in buying a Plus fare for the cheapest flight of the day and then changing it for free at midnight on the day of departure to any flight that still has seats available. That would allow you to take any of the LHR flights for £114, for example. That's the sort of flexibility I'd expect from LNER with their "Flex" fare.

Interesting. I've never bought a return fare to London on BA and wasn't even aware they offered a discount for them on domestic trips

 

[Watershed]

Interesting. I've never bought a return fare to London on BA and wasn't even aware they offered a discount for them on domestic trips

Absolutely. I don't think there are any markets where they offer full single-leg pricing, although some of their Gatwick short-haul routes offer approx. 55% single-leg pricing - by necessity as they are in direct competition with easyJet etc. who have always had single-leg pricing.

Some of the fare rules for air travel make rail fares look simple!

 

[JonathanH]

Have all those supposed 6 seats been reserved in the last hour and a half? And by people paying for the full whack Fully Flex fare? (Or could some of them have been flexing their Semi-Flex tickets and changing reservations to travel on an earlier or later train?)

They may have been booked for shorter trips, such that reservations aren't available all the way from London to Newcastle.

 

[Joe Paxton]

They may have been booked for shorter trips, such that reservations aren't available all the way from London to Newcastle.

Of course, a very fair point.

 

[Haywain]

They may have been booked for shorter trips, such that reservations aren't available all the way from London to Newcastle.

Earlier this afternoon that train was fully reserved for London to York (or possibly Darlington) but there were Advance fares available from Darlington northwards.

 

[Hadders]

As of 23:55 it seems that there is at least one seat available on the 11:00 (on Monday 12th Feb), if you book to Metrocentre.

 

[Wallsendmag]

As of 23:55 it seems that there is at least one seat available on the 11:00 (on Monday 12th Feb), if you book to Metrocentre.

View attachment 152095

A counted place maybe but I doubt a seat.

 

[GoneSouth]

They may have been booked for shorter trips, such that reservations aren't available all the way from London to Newcastle.

Which is another highly inefficient way of selling tickets. They could have said seats only available for part of the journey, you may have to stand for part of this journey etc.

Does anybody know what the effects of split ticketing are on this situation? Presumably buying a ticket to Peterborough and then another from there to Newcastle will be outside of the trial, more flexible and cheaper?

 

[takno]

Which is another highly inefficient way of selling tickets. They could have said seats only available for part of the journey, you may have to stand for part of this journey etc.

Does anybody know what the effects of split ticketing are on this situation? Presumably buying a ticket to Peterborough and then another from there to Newcastle will be outside of the trial, more flexible and cheaper?

They will be outside of the trial, but there were never any any really good splits on open tickets on the East Coast, so they will either be more flexible or cheaper, but they're unlikely to be both.

 

[modernrail]

They will be outside of the trial, but there were never any any really good splits on open tickets on the East Coast, so they will either be more flexible or cheaper, but they're unlikely to be both.

They could be a damn site cheaper if up against an flexi fare won’t they?

It made me think, is Trainline automatically finding a spot off-peak ticket as the cheapest option now when the alternative is a trial-flow rip off Flexishaft?

 

[Bletchleyite]

They could be a damn site cheaper if up against an flexi fare won’t they?

It made me think, is Trainline automatically finding a spot off-peak ticket as the cheapest option now when the alternative is a trial-flow rip off Flexishaft?

I just looked randomly for tomorrow and approximately half the trains showed a SplitSave. Some were small savings, some were massive - e.g. on the 0700 tomorrow from Kings Cross a split saves £41.60.

Trainline doesn't do specifically flexible splits, though, the SplitSave option is only done as the cheapest possible (that it finds with its limited algorithm). So with LNER what it finds will be mostly Advances, but obviously split Advances will still have a Super Off Peak cap.

Nonetheless I'm sure LNER are a bit miffed about it, diddums

 

[modernrail]

It is all very odd isn’t it, being thankful for the private sector commission scraping capitalists in the face of oppression by the public sector. Bring back privatisation! All is forgiven.

 

[Tomp94]

A bleedin' disgrace.
2020 I went Worthing to Newcastle for less than £80 there and back.
Same route same time in 2024 is £120.

 

[Mainline421]

(Or could some of them have been flexing their Semi-Flex tickets and changing reservations to travel on an earlier or later train?)

That's a good point, if someone requests a standalone reservation on the LNER site/app are they given a (pointless) counted place? I suspect they would be at a ticket office but that's more understandable as a system limitation.

Trainline doesn't do specifically flexible splits, though, the SplitSave option is only done as the cheapest possible (that it finds with its limited algorithm). So with LNER what it finds will be mostly Advances, but obviously split Advances will still have a Super Off Peak cap.

Nonetheless I'm sure LNER are a bit miffed about it, diddums

Probably the first positive to come out of Trainline's market dominance! Hopefully the drop in ticket sales on trial routes helps it fail.

 

[GoneSouth]

Nonetheless I'm sure LNER are a bit miffed about it, diddums

I wish you were right, however I suspect their real feeling is of relief that their ripoff scandal is being masked by workarounds, thus reducing any noisy campaign to scrap it and return the off peak fares. This way they quietly declare there were very few complaints and so declare it an overwhelming success, pat themselves on the back and all drive home because they never used the train anyway.

Makes me sick what these people get away with. Some of us rely on the railway and it’s looking increasingly likely to be unaffordable in future.

Actually, I suspect I won’t be using the train at all for most long journeys if this nonsense goes nationwide. It genuinely will be cheaper to pay a taxi/private hire car for family trips. Just utterly insane.

 

[Haywain]

That's a good point, if someone requests a reservation on the LNER site/app are they given a (pointless) counted place? I suspect they would be at a ticket office but that's more understandable as a system limitation.

If a seat is available, you are given a seat. If no seat is available you get a counted place as long as one of those is available. The third option is that you don't get anything. Where you book makes no difference.

 

[Mainline421]

If a seat is available, you are given a seat. If no seat is available you get a counted place as long as one of those is available. The third option is that you don't get anything. Where you book makes no difference.

It shouldn't though, all that achieves is potentially preventing someone else from traveling. There should be more concern about the amount spaces being blocked for no reason and hence making pax think they can't travel or have to pay for 1st. With Seatfrog, Breaks of Journey, and constant advice on this forum to book a random train rather than using a TVM/ticket office there will be so many places that will never be used (although admittedly Avanti are worse for this).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

A bleedin' disgrace.
2020 I went Worthing to Newcastle for less than £80 there and back.
Same route same time in 2024 is £120.

You could apply that to the price of almost everything, eg milk or coffee or air fares or car park charges or council tax.
Rail fares are no different, and even regulated fares have gone up 20%+ in that time.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You could apply that to the price of almost everything, eg milk or coffee or air fares or car park charges or council tax.
Rail fares are no different, and even regulated fares have gone up 20%+ in that time.

Going up is one thing. Going up 50% and losing flexibility at the same time is quite another.

 

[robbeech]

That's the idea of a trial, isn't it, if it's what they intend to do at the end of it (if it is seen as succeeding)? There is no point in having a trial and at the same time telling people how to get round it!

But how can you determine what passengers prefer?
If there’s only 1 vegan option on the menu then all the vegan people will choose that, you can’t determine that meal is a success with that data. To see if it’s a success you’d need to offer 2 or more options. Likewise if you don’t offer flex 70 tickets AND the (super)off peak then it is blatantly obvious that most people will choose the advance / flex 70, whereas if you offered both you could see what passengers went for.

You won't be able to get a seat reservation regardless in those circumstances as there are none left. Hence having to select a train you don't intend to travel on.

But how many have already done that, how many have passively ‘flexed’ to an earlier service leaving their seat free for the journey?

and also loses you the rights you have in disruption from already having bought a ticket.

Rights? What’s left of them!

A counted place maybe but I doubt a seat.

I’d be very interested (and may get time next week to check) when something like the 1100 leaves London having displayed as ‘sold out’ or being displayed only offering the SOS since the day before just how many empty seats there are.

 

[Benjwri]

A counted place maybe but I doubt a seat.

I thought LNER didn't have counted places anymore?

 

[thedbdiboy]

But how can you determine what passengers prefer?
If there’s only 1 vegan option on the menu then all the vegan people will choose that, you can’t determine that meal is a success with that data. To see if it’s a success you’d need to offer 2 or more options. Likewise if you don’t offer flex 70 tickets AND the (super)off peak then it is blatantly obvious that most people will choose the advance / flex 70, whereas if you offered both you could see what passengers went for.

The reason the trial is done on only 3 flows is that there are many other 'comparable' flows that the results can be evaluated against.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

The reason the trial is done on only 3 flows is that there are many other 'comparable' flows that the results can be evaluated against.

Then why is the staff brief advising that more flows are to join?

Page 2 of https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/requ... Simpler Fares Pilot.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1 states:

We are working towards extending this pilot to other stations in the North East and Scotland for travel to/from London.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I thought LNER didn't have counted places anymore?

Fairly sure they do for walk-up fares to avoid empty seats.

Avanti don't, and guess what? The result is...you guessed it...empty seats! If you're running with supposedly compulsory reservations you do need some level of overbooking not to waste capacity.

Then why is the staff brief advising that more flows are to join?

Page 2 of https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/fares_utopia_simpler_fares_pilot/response/2552002/attach/4/Staff Brief Simpler Fares Pilot.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1 states:

That's quite a good document, but shows a fairly high level of "confirmation bias", i.e. the selection of evidence to support the plan they'd already decided on. For instance I note it refers to the issue of people using Off Peaks and making a new reservation rather than changing their old one, thus wasting reservations. This is indeed true - but the fix is to make it easier to change a reservation on a flexible ticket rather than make a new one, not to do something totally different to mitigate it! (That also reduces confusion on validity, too - if you don't understand, change your itinerary and you'd only be offered a valid one).

 

[Haywain]

I thought LNER didn't have counted places anymore?

Counted places are still used for 'walk-up' tickets and can apply when a reservation is made separately from a ticket (ie: pass holders etc).

 

[ThameslinkUser]

That's quite a good document, but shows a fairly high level of "confirmation bias", i.e. the selection of evidence to support the plan they'd already decided on.

The worst part is when talking about the Ipsos research document (available at https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/requ...esearch Ipsos Mori 1.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1)

Under title of more modern flexibility there's this gem (my bolding):

Research by Ipsos Mori, commissioned by LNER, found that 53% of customers and 55% of non-customers think the ability to travel one hour earlier or later is about right/more than enough flexibility. However there were others who believed it is less than they would need.

So effectively half of customers think this is a poor idea in the research stage, let alone the trial...

 

[setdown]

What an interesting document (my bolding):

For the length of the pilot, where only selected markets see the withdrawal of off-peak fares, there may be
opportunities to split tickets (to gain access to off-peak fares) and also opportunities for ‘long buying’ where
it is cheaper to buy a longer distance off-peak fare for the shorter journey being undertaken.

This sort of booking behaviour distorts passenger demand and revenue figures - figures which are crucial to
business planning. We do not support any retailer or retail agent actively offering customers alternative tickets
in this way. Again, this distorts vital management information and may hinder further reforms if this leads to
any material impact to the evaluation of LNER’s pilot. We therefore encourage retail outlets during this time
not to extend any ‘tricks of the trade’.

It is fundamental to the success of fares reform that during this time staff only sell a ticket for the
journey the customer is actually making unless a request is made for alternative tickets.

Don't help the person who already subsidises the railways through their taxes. Make them pay more.

(Why do train operating companies even still have their own retail channels in this post-franchising age, think of all the money being wasted)

 

[Haywain]

So effectively half of customers think this is a poor idea in the research stage,

Or a minority, depending on which way you voted in 2016!