What capacity will Phase 2a add? This is my analysis. What do other think?
I assume they follow the line of 2a for some distance, then build a low-cost connection onto the main network at one of Hixon, Baldwin's Gate, or Basford Hall.
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CURRENT CAPACITY AT COLWICH
The mixed traffic WCML has to pass through the flat crossing at Colwich. I believe the current maximum capacity is around 10tph (7 passenger and 3 freight). Does anyone have a better figure?
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PHASE 1 ONLY
Build phase 1 only (Spur from HS2 Fradley Junction to the WCML slows at Handsacre). Mixed traffic still has to pass through the flat junction at Colwich, so the capacity will be the same as it is now, with similar destinations north of Handsacre. Comprising, perhaps:
- 5tph HS2 (all from London)
- 2tph WCML Passenger (one fast to Chester, one slow)
- 3tph WCML freight (as now)
Birmingham-Manchester traffic can still use the Cross-County route via Stoke on Trent, avoiding Colwich.
It may be possible to get three more passenger services through in peak hours, if freights are suspended at that time.
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BUILD 2a TO HIXON
Build 2a to just short of Great Haywood, then curve northwards to join the Colwich-Stone line on a flat junction at Hixon. Cost: 18km of new track = £2.2bn. Radius of curve = 1500m (~100mph)
Only HS2 traffic will run on the Colwich-Stone line. Colwich Junction itself now has no crossing moves, as it funnels four tracks down to two, so it should cope with more traffic. I'll guess 2tph more. Is that resonable? This will give us:
From HS2
- 4tph HS2 via Stoke-on-Trent and Manchester (using the paths used by Avanti and Cross Country). Three from London, one from Curzon St. HS2 could deliver more trains to Stoke-on-Trent, but north of Stoke is limited by junctions in South Manchester. Wolverhampton and Stafford passengers to Macclesfield can be served by extending the Stoke stopper to Birmingham.
- 5tph HS2 towards Crewe via Colwich (1 Liverpool, 1 Manchester via Wilmslow (using the Avanti path), 3 to Preston and beyond)
From WCML Trent Valley
- 3tph WCML Passenger (One slow calling Stafford-Stoke-Crewe; one fast to Chester; one fast to Liverpool)
- 4tph WCML freight, if required
And from the Wolverhampton direction:
- 1tph stopper Birmingham to Liverpool
- 1tph stopper Birmingham - Stoke - Manchester
- 1tph limited stop Birmingham to Glasgow. With tilt, this would be the fastest service between Glasgow and Crewe.
- 4tph freights from Birmingham to Crewe yards, if required
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BUILD 2a TO BALDWINS GATE
Build 2a to Baldwins Gate and merge onto the adjacent WCML fast lines to Crewe. Cost of 43.5km of new track = £5.2bn. Radius of curve = 2000m (~125mph),
Assuming a flat junction, the fasts from Baldwin's Gate to Crewe should have capacity of 8 - 10tph. And if they carried only HS2 traffic, then they could handle 12-16tph, which is far more than could pass through Crewe station.
Similarly the slows could take 8 - 10 tph. Paths through and beyond Crewe have become the constraint on the system, instead of Colwich.
From HS2
- 1tph Manchester via Colwich and Stoke
- 7tph to Crewe (1 to Manchester via Wilmslow, 1 to Man Victoria via Chat Moss, 2 to Liverpool, 3 to Preston and beyond)
From WCML Trent Valley
- 1tph Manchester via Colwich and Stoke
- 1tph slow (Stafford-Stoke-Crewe)
- 1tph Chester
- 1tph Liverpool
- 5tph freight to Crewe
From Wolverhampton
- 1tph Cross county Birmingham - Stoke - Manchester
- 1tph stopper Birmingham - Liverpool
- 4tph freight to Crewe, if required
This solution is no better than building to Hixon, which surprises me (Unless I've missed something). I guess it's because of the constraints getting Manchester from the South. And you now can't use HS2 for Birmingham-Manchester traffic without adding to the congestion north of Crewe.
This solution might allow more freight to get to Crewe, but I don't see there is the demand for 8tph freights to Crewe from the south at this time.
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BUILD 2a TO CREWE
Build 2a to Crewe. 57km of new railway (£6.8bn) plus the cost of junctions (probably another billion).
Extending 2a to Crewe itself would make journeys faster, but would not add capacity to the the Baldwin's Gate solution.
And it cost a lot. This section of the 2a design calls for a high-speed grade-separated junction to accommodate the Phase 2b continuation down to the Crewe tunnel portal; and a separate and expensive grade-separated junction to join the WCML fasts from the wrong side of the line.
I can't see any government agreeing to pay for it at this time.
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OTHER ENHANCEMENTS
So my vote is to build 2a to Hixon. To get the most benefit from this option, my next priority would be to make the following changes to the rest of the network, before building any more HS2:
Lengthen platform 5 at Crewe to accommodate 400m trains, and add a single short platform to the Chester Independent Lines. This would allow Chester - Manchester trains to use the goods tunnel to Manchester and avoid crossing the WCML at grade. These are shown in the HS2 plans for Crewe station:
Extend platforms at Warrington BQ, Preston and Carlisle, and if possible at Wigan NW, to 400m. The three 3 x HS2 services to "Preston and beyond" could then be full-length HS2 trains, as follows:
- 1tph 400m calling Preston-Carlisle-Waverly (platform 7+11). At under four hours, this would be the fastest service from Edinburgh to London, by any route. (We could call it The Flying Scotsman, though purists might prefer The Royal Scot.)
- 1tph 400m calling Crewe-Warrington BQ-Wigan NW-Preston.
- 1tph 2x200m, splitting at Preston. One part going fast to Edinburgh and the other part calling at major stations to Glasgow. This would complement the fast Pendolino to Glasgow.
I would then look at options to quadruple Crewe-Weaver to get more capacity cheaply north of Crewe