I've lost track of this. Tender announced about two years and three months ago. Is that normal to wait so long? When/if will any decision be announced?
Hope I'm wrong but I can see DfT cuts putting the blockers on. Lease costs will be high with interest rates being what they are and the treasury doesn't seem too keen to fund the higher subsidies that will require.
With 13 Class 377's heading over that could displace Networkers as part donors could that keep the overall fleet going for another 5-10 years?
It's not unusual for a fleet of this size, the fleet itself is expected to cost roughly £2bn at the upper end of the vehicle count. If an award is announced it is expected to be July this year (though procurement dates are known to slip).
The new stock was always on the basis of a positive business case. The existing fleet will become harder to maintain increasing cost and a new fleet allows higher capacity per vehicle, better targeting of longer formations through reduced operational requirements, higher reliability and availability. Some existing users will not like some of those aspects, but it will be important to the case. The leasing cost may be higher initially - at some point there will be a crossover where the older stock no longer is cost effective.
Even with the current award the last Networker may be in service 5 years from now, it will take several years to build a fleet of that size without adding the testing time and rollout period.
Another factor that may see the Treasury/DFT block any new order and replacement soon is that if funds are limited in this parliament, wouldn't replacing 40 year old diesels take priority? Also helps with "not London again" viewpoint when it comes to rail improvements and so Northern would see the emphasis for any new train orders to get rid of Class 150 etc. There's already a tender for that.
That keeps Networkers going for another 5 years (using parts from displaced stock now in store or heading there) before any order when they'd all be around 35+ years of age and replaced at 40+ years of age.
The deals are largely separate, it is all resource spending rather than capital spending due to the leasing agreement. The subsidy position for each becomes relative to the leasing the existing stock and independent of other deals. The Southeastern deal started first and would naturally be in a position to award first, getting it announced may mean a supplier who lost out on that one is more prepared to lower costs to win the Northern one.
The Northern tender timeline is aborted procurement started August 2023, restarted May 2024, shortlisted announced this month, award estimated Spring 2026. Southeastern is November 2022, shortlist announced May 2024, award estimated July 2025.
Why have the 465/2s not been scrapped yet?
It's up to Angel Trains to decide to scrap them. The Networkers have an outside shot at producing more lease income, they could try to compete with the Eversholt once that deal expires or offer some back if the Eversholt ones run out of parts and have to be withdrawn before replacement stock is in service. If keeping them stored is cheap enough or covered by a retainer on storage space it might be worth the risk.
