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New DfT rail usage figures, big increase

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Adrian1980uk

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Depends…
If commuters are significantly down but leisure is up then you might still need fewer trains - the extra leisure passengers are just occupying seats that ran around empty off peak pre-Covid.
Commuting from Norwich, there aren't many free seats from Colchester, my feeling is that the recovery to 100% on particular days is not far away as passenger numbers keep growing although as you say the flows are different. I think the narrative is beginning to change in the media back to overcrowding and then the pressure to increase services once again.
 
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dk1

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Commuting from Norwich, there aren't many free seats from Colchester, my feeling is that the recovery to 100% on particular days is not far away as passenger numbers keep growing although as you say the flows are different. I think the narrative is beginning to change in the media back to overcrowding and then the pressure to increase services once again.

Commuter recovery along the GEML has been strong helped by the additional seating provided on the new train fleets. Still a few trains missing but I don’t think overall capacity is affected.
 

Annetts key

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The 130% requirement did not apply to Inter City services - pause for hollow laughter for say Reading (and doubless others)
Or even as far as Swindon on one (London Paddington to Bristol Temple Meads) service that I was on, about 12 to 18 months ago..
 

YorkshireBear

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Commuter recovery along the GEML has been strong helped by the additional seating provided on the new train fleets. Still a few trains missing but I don’t think overall capacity is affected.
And it being one of the most reliable TOCS in the country.

Boring, reliable, railway is what the passengers want.
 

TUC

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I suspect the proliferation of split-ticketing might have slightly inflated the statistics.
That begs the question of the methodology used for the statistics. If a passenger, say, has a ticket from Darlington to Peterborough, and a ticket from Peterborough to Kings Cross, in terms of percentage of usage on a given section of route that still only amounts to one passenger, but as you saying it would be counted as two?
 

Snow1964

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That begs the question of the methodology used for the statistics. If a passenger, say, has a ticket from Darlington to Peterborough, and a ticket from Peterborough to Kings Cross, in terms of percentage of usage on a given section of route that still only amounts to one passenger, but as you saying it would be counted as two?
One would hope the statistics quote journey numbers on booking reference from start to end station, ignoring splits and changes of train for pre-booked tickets.
I guess those that manually book in separate transactions are going to be miscounted as individual journeys, but must be tiny number.

Generally walk up ticket purchases without a booking reference do not have splits, so not affected.
There are always assumptions anyway eg the number of journeys on season tickets and rovers and passes etc to make the total.
 

TUC

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One would hope the statistics quote journey numbers on booking reference from start to end station, ignoring splits and changes of train for pre-booked tickets.
I guess those that manually book in separate transactions are going to be miscounted as individual journeys, but must be tiny number.

Generally walk up ticket purchases without a booking reference do not have splits, so not affected.
There are always assumptions anyway eg the number of journeys on season tickets and rovers and passes etc to make the total.
What I mean is, even laving aside split ticketing, one passenger travelling from Darlington to Peterborough, and another from Peterborough to London, is still only an increase of one on any given section of route. If more passengers taking shorter journeys were hypothetically taking place, but the actual increase on any given section of route was a small number, to count all of those passengers individually, and say 'business is booming. We need more trains' would be misleading,
 

JamesT

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One would hope the statistics quote journey numbers on booking reference from start to end station, ignoring splits and changes of train for pre-booked tickets.
I guess those that manually book in separate transactions are going to be miscounted as individual journeys, but must be tiny number.

Generally walk up ticket purchases without a booking reference do not have splits, so not affected.
There are always assumptions anyway eg the number of journeys on season tickets and rovers and passes etc to make the total.
I suggest reading the report linked in post #49 which explains some of the methodology around the published numbers.
As it stands, each ticket will be counted separately, but they’re looking to adjust them in future to take account of splitting.
 

Bald Rick

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Boring, reliable, railway is what the passengers want.

Indeed. But some people want more and / or quicker services, and that does not always equal boringly reliable!

Using London - Norwich as an example, one of the reasons it is now so reliable is that the schedules have plenty of time in them that enables recovery from minor incidents. You could take that time out, and reduce journey times to Norwich, but it would be less punctual.
 

Class 170101

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The fact that Voyagers on long distance workings forms the entire Birmingham-Manchester service is pretty appalling. Its an electrified route linking the centre of the West Midlands with the centre of the North West in about 90 minutes and yet we provide overcrowded 4-car diesel trains. At the very least there should be an hourly 8-car EMU of Desiro standard or better, to provide a more attractive backbone to the service, perhaps allowing one of the XC paths to run via Crewe instead.
Not sure how you path these unfortunately? Yes EMUs should operate between Coventry and Manchester but people still want to travel across Birmingham, not all board and alight there.

Also, average train carriage length is longer - think all those 24m coaches on GA that replaced 20m coaches, 23m coaches replacing sprinters and pacers on Northern, 26m IEPs replacing 23m coaches etc. etc.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
But no extra length overall especially at peak times. 24m at 10 coaches against 20m at 12 coaches?

From the Modern Railways editorial this month:

”Since 2015/16, governments have spent in the order of £74billion over nine years on rail projects and upgrade.”

and

”… rail gets a far better deal from Government than one might suspect. £27billion of a total transport budget of £44 billion - a whopping 70% of DfT expenditure”.
Perhaps but I would argue spending less on roads - especially new roads rather than existing roads before anyone screams what about the pot holes. Even if cars go electric they still take up the same amount of road space as petrol ones and arguably electric cars may actually be heavier than petrol ones so may cause more pot holes.

The St Albans issue is now largely solved by the pairing of up ‘fast’ trains in the morning high peak. The first one of each pair is all stations from Bedford (in one case a Flitwick starter), and they are busy - everyone gets on but there’s usually about 7-800 standing Tuesday - Thursday. The second of the pair 6/7 minutes later all skip the airport and Harlington on their way from Bedford, plus one of Leagrave or Flitwick. Thus they arrive at St Albans with a handful of seats but plenty of standing room. On Fridays a seat is almost guaranteed on these.
Have I read this right two fast trains and one of them has 700 to 800 standing and one with little standing?
 

dk1

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But no extra length overall especially at peak times. 24m at 10 coaches against 20m at 12 coaches?
although there has been some gain in seating with the 720s over the 317/321/360/379 fleets that went before, the big capacity gain has been the 745s over the 90/DVT stock. Crazy to think now that some sets only had 5 standard class carriages.
 

RailWonderer

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although there has been some gain in seating with the 720s over the 317/321/360/379 fleets that went before, the big capacity gain has been the 745s over the 90/DVT stock. Crazy to think now that some sets only had 5 standard class carriages.
There's definitely been a build-it-and-they'll-come situation. The Stadlers are light years ahead of the Mk3s it's incentivised more to use GA especially on weekends. That morning 08:57 Norwich - Liverpool St that runs non-stop from Ipswich used to call at Chelmsford and Colchester but I regularly saw it too busy to board and leaving people behind with 745s this last couple of years before they added the fast Ipswich 720 to make up the calls.
 

Annetts key

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Perhaps but I would argue spending less on roads - especially new roads rather than existing roads before anyone screams what about the pot holes. Even if cars go electric they still take up the same amount of road space as petrol ones and arguably electric cars may actually be heavier than petrol ones so may cause more pot holes.
Let’s not go down this pot hole too far!

But do keep in mind that local government pays for some road maintenance. Was this included in the earlier figure or was that only including the spending by the DfT?

Asphalt degradation is caused by the weather (hence why pavements and cycle paths degrade) and the quality (or rather lack of) of the foundation and asphalt surface. One of the biggest reasons for there being so many pot holes is temporary repairs rather than the section of road being properly resurfaced. Or poor quality work when a utility company has to dig up the road. Ironically this includes the highway authority itself...

Yes, road traffic also causes wear and damage. But most of the damage from vehicles is caused by lorries, trucks, busses or other large or heavy vehicles. That’s not to say that cars and vans don’t cause damage. They clearly do. Especially when the surface is not in a good condition. Plenty of examples in residential roads.

Would a ICE SUV cause more or less wear to the road surface compared to say a hybrid such as a Toyota Prius or say an electric MG ZS EV? I would have thought that driving style would also make a difference.

It’s the same with a railway track. If the ballast or formation is poorly done, heavy trains will soon cause dips, and then further damage and wear will result (to rails, sleepers and the ballast).

Anyway, this is rather off topic me thinks. Do we have another topic where this subject is or has been discussed?
 

Bald Rick

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Have I read this right two fast trains and one of them has 700 to 800 standing and one with little standing?

No, first one has up to 7-800 standing, the one 6 minutes later will have only 2-300 standing.



But no extra length overall especially at peak times. 24m at 10 coaches against 20m at 12 coaches?

Some do have more length overall, even at peak times.

Perhaps but I would argue spending less on roads - especially new roads rather than existing roads before anyone screams what about the pot holes.

It is worth checking out how much the DfT spends on new roads and how much they soend on railway upgrades.
 

alistairlees

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It would be interesting to get a robust comparison of road and rail expenditure across all bodies, though I've no doubt that rail expenditure (whether gross or net of income) will be significantly greater than road expenditure.

Without having dived deep into the stats it seems that annual road expenditure is around £12bn (split evenly between central and local sources). There's about a further £1.5bn for policing (extrapolated from the £150m for London). There are no doubt costs from increased healthcare and externalities such as pollution, though these are harder to measure (there will no doubt be many pieces of research). According to the House of Commons Library from a couple of years ago, the roads have a backlog of expenditure of nearly £12bn.

Still, all of these numbers are less than the £26bn or so spent on rail.

Roads also have income raised of around £32bn (£8bn from VED, and £24bn from fuel duty). There will also be the congestion charge in London.

Broadly speaking, that means that income for roads is around 200% of expenditure. But income for rail is around 50% of expenditure.

I'd love it to be other way round of course!

I have no doubt the figures above need some corrections - suggestions welcome - but I don't think it's going to alter the broad conclusion. Unless you can prove me wrong (I would be delighted).
 

Railwaysceptic

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It would be interesting to get a robust comparison of road and rail expenditure across all bodies, though I've no doubt that rail expenditure (whether gross or net of income) will be significantly greater than road expenditure.

Without having dived deep into the stats it seems that annual road expenditure is around £12bn (split evenly between central and local sources). There's about a further £1.5bn for policing (extrapolated from the £150m for London). There are no doubt costs from increased healthcare and externalities such as pollution, though these are harder to measure (there will no doubt be many pieces of research). According to the House of Commons Library from a couple of years ago, the roads have a backlog of expenditure of nearly £12bn.

Still, all of these numbers are less than the £26bn or so spent on rail.

Roads also have income raised of around £32bn (£8bn from VED, and £24bn from fuel duty). There will also be the congestion charge in London.

Broadly speaking, that means that income for roads is around 200% of expenditure. But income for rail is around 50% of expenditure.

I'd love it to be other way round of course!

I have no doubt the figures above need some corrections - suggestions welcome - but I don't think it's going to alter the broad conclusion. Unless you can prove me wrong (I would be delighted).
Government income from motorists - exclusively because they are motorists, and in addition to the taxes they already pay - includes all the VAT on motor vehicles, fuel, parts and accessories, servicing and MOTs plus the 12% Government impost on insurance policies. It amounts to a gigantic sum.
 

Class 170101

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No, first one has up to 7-800 standing, the one 6 minutes later will have only 2-300 standing.
Seems like the spread of calls needs adjusting so each one is around 550 standing - more comfortable around personal space

Some do have more length overall, even at peak times.
Probably due to being 6 car Class 321 equivalent minimum. Clearly 321s could be in 4, 8 or 12 formation. 720s only in 5 or 10 formation.
 

Krokodil

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It is worth checking out how much the DfT spends on new roads and how much they soend on railway upgrades.
A lot of road expenditure comes from local or devolved governments though, not the DfT.

Broadly speaking, that means that income for roads is around 200% of expenditure. But income for rail is around 50% of expenditure.

I'd love it to be other way round of course!

I have no doubt the figures above need some corrections - suggestions welcome - but I don't think it's going to alter the broad conclusion. Unless you can prove me wrong (I would be delighted).
Accounting for externalities complicates things. Rail expenditure includes the cost of a driver, whereas on roads you drive yourself. That's a loss of productive time when you could have been doing something else.

Then take into account air pollution. How much does that cost in healthcare and shortened lives? The cost of collisions and their effects? The health impacts of sedentary lifestyles? Noise pollution and its effect on the heart? Someone dying before they reach retirement age is a loss of a productive worker, as is someone leaving the workforce due to ill health or injury.
 

Bald Rick

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Seems like the spread of calls needs adjusting so each one is around 550 standing - more comfortable around personal space

The spread is 0727 then the following intervals: 6*/8/7*/9/6*/8 minutes from the 0727 to 0811. St Albans people tend to arrive fairly spread out, but there are fewer standing on those with an * as it has called at fewer stations en route from Bedford.


A lot of road expenditure comes from local or devolved governments though, not the DfT.

Not that much locally for new roads, though, and often when it is local spend it is actually a grant from central government.
 

slowroad

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A lot of road expenditure comes from local or devolved governments though, not the DfT.


Accounting for externalities complicates things. Rail expenditure includes the cost of a driver, whereas on roads you drive yourself. That's a loss of productive time when you could have been doing something else.

Then take into account air pollution. How much does that cost in healthcare and shortened lives? The cost of collisions and their effects? The health impacts of sedentary lifestyles? Noise pollution and its effect on the heart? Someone dying before they reach retirement age is a loss of a productive worker, as is someone leaving the workforce due to ill health or injury.
These are all good reasons for either imposing road user charging or subsidising public transport (in principle the former seems preferable but is difficult politically). But such considerations don’t imply unlimited subsidies for rail and they also suggest much more spatial differentiation than at present, where some rural rail journeys are very heavily subsidised and the associated external benefits are very limited.
 

david1212

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And CrossCountry seem to be actively promoting Birmingham - Manchester. Which is their wont but if there is an overcrowding issue it seems odd.

Enjoy great savings on Advance tickets between Manchester and Birmingham with CrossCountry.

If the advance ticket quotas are set so that they should not bring any service on which they are available close to capacity then fine. Rather they should help with overcrowding by encouraging those who would travel anyway to do so at a quieter time, which may be less convenient, and commit to a specific service in return for a lower ticket price plus put the bums of those who would not travel at the walk-on fare on seats that otherwise would be empty. The problem then comes if a service is cancelled or short-formed.
 

Adrian1980uk

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It would be interesting to see the Greater Anglia passenger figures, judging by the morning peak and standing at Norwich station waiting to pick my wife up, watching people poor onto the London train on a Sunday evening and then the Stansted train come in, there couldn't have been many free seats on that 4 coach 755
 

Class 170101

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It would be interesting to see the Greater Anglia passenger figures, judging by the morning peak and standing at Norwich station waiting to pick my wife up, watching people poor onto the London train on a Sunday evening and then the Stansted train come in, there couldn't have been many free seats on that 4 coach 755
Usually half hourly service in the mid to late afternoon to London.


Some terminating at Stratford today though

Stansted services usually seem pretty busy when I've seen them.

How much of that is generated by the new housing would be interesting to know though.
 

Kite159

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If the advance ticket quotas are set so that they should not bring any service on which they are available close to capacity then fine. Rather they should help with overcrowding by encouraging those who would travel anyway to do so at a quieter time, which may be less convenient, and commit to a specific service in return for a lower ticket price plus put the bums of those who would not travel at the walk-on fare on seats that otherwise would be empty. The problem then comes if a service is cancelled or short-formed.
Considering XC are quite happy to sell advance tickets for peak time services between Wolverhampton & Birmingham, they are probably doing down the TPE method of "sell as many advances as possible", even if said advance ticket is a token amount less than the flexible ticket.
 

Class 170101

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Even office commuting is now approaching consistent only on three out of seven days. There's not a lot of consistency with anything any more.
Three out of seven isn't bad actually given that most people haven't commuted to offices for two of those for a very very long time.
 

Sonic1234

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Considering XC are quite happy to sell advance tickets for peak time services between Wolverhampton & Birmingham, they are probably doing down the TPE method of "sell as many advances as possible", even if said advance ticket is a token amount less than the flexible ticket.
Also, XC keep all the money from such a ticket. The walk up ticket will be split between operators.

Yes, technically all revenue goes to the DfT these days. But I would be surprised if TOC management didn't have targets and incentives for getting money into their pot. Same with SWR, who have put a premium on "&connections" Advances but no such premium if the connecting service is on SWR, because they have to share revenue in the former case. This happened after all revenue went to the Treasury.
 
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