Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[Bald Rick]

There are 24 hour coaches to the airports - and a taxi to the airport is also often cheaper than to central London.

There’s 24h buses and trains to St P, and 24h tubes on some nights too. But you don’t need them to get to St P for 0645.

You can get a direct train to St P from Bedford, Cambridge, Peterborough, Brighton, Corby, Derby, Ramsgate, Gillingham, Ashford, Sutton, Horsham, and most intermediate stations, plus of course all the underground directly or with one change. With one change or a short walk from Euston you have connections from almost the entire southeastern and Southern suburban networks, a decent part of the South Western suburban, all of the Elizabeth Line, much of the London Overground, and the WCML from Northampton southwards.

It is not hard, and not at all ridiculous.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

There’s 24h buses and trains to St P, and 24h tubes on some nights too. But you don’t need them to get to St P for 0645.

You can get a direct train to St P from Bedford, Cambridge, Peterborough, Brighton, Corby, Derby, Ramsgate, Gillingham, Ashford, Sutton, Horsham, and most intermediate stations, plus of course all the underground directly or with one change. With one change or a short walk from Euston you have connections from almost the entire southeastern and Southern suburban networks, a decent part of the South Western suburban, all of the Elizabeth Line, much of the London Overground, and the WCML from Northampton southwards.

It is not hard, and not at all ridiculous.

And I can absolutely imagine people from further away could go down the night before, that's what my family did when we went on the Eurostar a long time ago (to Paris).

 

[Chester1]

I can't think of any major changes to UK travel, working and residential rights in France that might have taken effect since the service was dropped that might have had an impact on the viability of said service...

Brexit will have had small effect on the size of the market. France has a low income threshold for it's non working visa and the UK state pension counts towards it. They also have a 6 month visitor visa (€150 fee) that overrides the 90/180 Schengen rule. They couldn't make it much more easier for second home owners or people who want to retire to France full time. There is probably an ongoing slow decline in number of digital nomads.

The scrapping of the service is part of Eurostar concentrating on its most profitable core market after it built up a big debt during the pandemic. The route is likely still profitable but not the most profitable use of a set each day.

 

[MatthewHutton]

There’s 24h buses and trains to St P, and 24h tubes on some nights too. But you don’t need them to get to St P for 0645.

You can get a direct train to St P from Bedford, Cambridge, Peterborough, Brighton, Corby, Derby, Ramsgate, Gillingham, Ashford, Sutton, Horsham, and most intermediate stations, plus of course all the underground directly or with one change. With one change or a short walk from Euston you have connections from almost the entire southeastern and Southern suburban networks, a decent part of the South Western suburban, all of the Elizabeth Line, much of the London Overground, and the WCML from Northampton southwards.

It is not hard, and not at all ridiculous.

Yeah it’s true you can get in from more places than I expected. But you can’t get in from beyond Reading into Paddington or into Marylebone in time to catch that Eurostar for example.

 

[TheWierdOne]

While SNCF is the largest shareholder in Eurostar, they are separate companies, so unless you have something concrete suggesting that this is due to the SNCF, I would hesitate to blame it on them, rather than Eurostar.

It would be really interesting to know how much day to day influence SNCF exerts over Eurostar. Presumably they have to tiptoe somewhat to avoid drawing the eyes of the European Commission and getting investigated for monopolistic conduct.

 

[MatthewHutton]

While SNCF is the largest shareholder in Eurostar, they are separate companies, so unless you have something concrete suggesting that this is due to the SNCF, I would hesitate to blame it on them, rather than Eurostar.

I would say the weakness of the onward service from Lille and the lack of trying to run e.g. the Lyon trains so they connect nicely with the Eurostar is kinda on them.

Also if the Thalys service had 90% load factor cancelling it is disappointing and cannot surely be commercially justified.

 

[Trainbike46]

I would say the weakness of the onward service from Lille and the lack of trying to run e.g. the Lyon trains so they connect nicely with the Eurostar is kinda on them.

That's a separate issue to the return of London-Marseille services though

Also if the Thalys service had 90% load factor cancelling it is disappointing and cannot surely be commercially justified.

in 2019 the whole-season load factor of the Amsterdam-Marseille service was 94%, with 70% of services having a 100% load factor. source: https://www.treinreiziger.nl/bezettingsgraad-zon-thalys-94-trein-vaak-uitverkocht/

The fact this was cancelled suggests a London-Marseille service is unlikely anytime soon, as much as I agree that it should return.

 

[zwk500]

It would be really interesting to know how much day to day influence SNCF exerts over Eurostar. Presumably they have to tiptoe somewhat to avoid drawing the eyes of the European Commission and getting investigated for monopolistic conduct.

Being the majority shareholder in the parent company generally doesn't bring with it day-to-day operational or executive control.

The train service is run by Eurostar International Limited, a company headquartered in London, which is owned by Eurostar Group, a company headquartered in Belgium.
SNCF has a 55% Shareholder in Eurostar Group. The other shareholders are the Quebec pension fund (19.31%), SNCB (18.5%) and Federated Hermes Infrastructure, an American investment company (6.44%). Presumably any attempts by SNCF to assume any level of operational control over the train service itself would be noticed by, and objectionable to, SNCB at the very least.

 

[STINT47]

Eurostar may have said that only 1.4% of passengers used Ashford in 2019 but they fail to mention the service levels at the time.

Ashford was being modified to accept E320's and at times the station had just two services to Paris a day plus a few to other destinations.

If they provided it with a decent service all day like it had before the switch to St Pancras they might find that the percentage of passengers go up.

Cutting the service then blaming low numbers for withdrawing it. Is Eurostar run by a modern doctor Beaching?

 

[Chester1]

The fact this was cancelled suggests a London-Marseille service is unlikely anytime soon, as much as I agree that it should return.

Hopefully it will return once Eurostar has competition on core routes and re-assesses how to use its stock.

 

[Bald Rick]

Hopefully it will return once Eurostar has competition on core routes and re-assesses how to use its stock.

Competition is more likely to mean it won’t return to Ashford / Ebbsfleet or beyond Paris. If revenue reduces, but the cost base is the same, then they will focus on the highest revenue / lowest cost, and that means not stopping.

 

[HSTEd]

Assuming competition occurs, which I doubt, it is likely to force Eurostar to cut back anything except the most profitable routes.

I'd be worried about service levels between St Pancras and Brussels in that case.
They can likely make more money by putting everything into Paris or even transferring the sets to the ex Thalys operation.

I think Eurostar is very expensive, but they do have major costs that domestic operators don't have (HS1 access charges actually being set commercially, and lots more staff than comparable operators).
I'd be surprised if competition really improved things significantly, and it could end up making it worse.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Assuming competition occurs, which I doubt, it is likely to force Eurostar to cut back anything except the most profitable routes.

I'd be worried about service levels between St Pancras and Brussels in that case.
They can likely make more money by putting everything into Paris or even transferring the sets to the ex Thalys operation.

I think Eurostar is very expensive, but they do have major costs that domestic operators don't have (HS1 access charges actually being set commercially, and lots more staff than comparable operators).
I'd be surprised if competition really improved things significantly, and it could end up making it worse.

To be fair aside from the busiest sections setting track access costs commercially essentially means encouraging as many trains as possible to run.

 

[The Ham]

Assuming competition occurs, which I doubt, it is likely to force Eurostar to cut back anything except the most profitable routes.

I'd be worried about service levels between St Pancras and Brussels in that case.
They can likely make more money by putting everything into Paris or even transferring the sets to the ex Thalys operation.

I think Eurostar is very expensive, but they do have major costs that domestic operators don't have (HS1 access charges actually being set commercially, and lots more staff than comparable operators).
I'd be surprised if competition really improved things significantly, and it could end up making it worse.

It depends, if the competition is serving Paris/other (currently) high value routes and making that less profitable than the other routes then it's possible that they could look to other routes to make money.

Clearly the reason that Paris makes money is you can fill trains, however if others are trying that too but at a lower cost/offering something better there may not be the benefit in providing more services than they currently do to Paris.

For example, if they are currently running 50 services a day to Paris and 30 to other locations and someone else comes along to run 35 services to Paris, would it really be worth them run 65 services to Paris and 15 to other locations when that would mean that rather than 50 services a day to Paris there's now 100 services to Paris (or effectively halving the loading of each train unless you've managed to grow the numbers using it significantly)?

Personally I'd be looking at what could I do to make those other locations more attractive to more people, so that those trains get better loadings. For example, could you work with others to create a travel hub where not only UK trains go but also local and long distance trains so there's a lot of people wanting to go there to go somewhere else.

 

[MatthewHutton]

It depends, if the competition is serving Paris/other (currently) high value routes and making that less profitable than the other routes then it's possible that they could look to other routes to make money.

Clearly the reason that Paris makes money is you can fill trains, however if others are trying that too but at a lower cost/offering something better there may not be the benefit in providing more services than they currently do to Paris.

For example, if they are currently running 50 services a day to Paris and 30 to other locations and someone else comes along to run 35 services to Paris, would it really be worth them run 65 services to Paris and 15 to other locations when that would mean that rather than 50 services a day to Paris there's now 100 services to Paris (or effectively halving the loading of each train unless you've managed to grow the numbers using it significantly)?

Personally I'd be looking at what could I do to make those other locations more attractive to more people, so that those trains get better loadings. For example, could you work with others to create a travel hub where not only UK trains go but also local and long distance trains so there's a lot of people wanting to go there to go somewhere else.

Yeah but then you are relying on SNCF to run onward service that takes account of the Eurostar from the travel hub (Lille)

 

[zwk500]

Assuming competition occurs, which I doubt, it is likely to force Eurostar to cut back anything except the most profitable routes.

I'd be worried about service levels between St Pancras and Brussels in that case.
They can likely make more money by putting everything into Paris or even transferring the sets to the ex Thalys operation.

I think Eurostar is very expensive, but they do have major costs that domestic operators don't have (HS1 access charges actually being set commercially, and lots more staff than comparable operators).
I'd be surprised if competition really improved things significantly, and it could end up making it worse.

Brussels trains are fairly busy, and they also form the onwards service to Amsterdam which Eurostar is looking to develop further. I'd be surprised if the 1tp2h is seriously under threat from another competitor looking to run trains deeper into France.
And if an operator competed with Eurostar on a London-Germany axis, they'd be going through Brussels anyway.

 

[bananas]

Back to the "space at St Pancras" question: where do you end up if you go down the emergency exits at the northern end of the international platforms? And/or what’s directly above the car park? Could that space become part of an expanded international terminal?

 

[Austriantrain]

Competition is more likely to mean it won’t return to Ashford / Ebbsfleet or beyond Paris. If revenue reduces, but the cost base is the same, then they will focus on the highest revenue / lowest cost, and that means not stopping.

The eternal dilemma. Competition has indeed the consequences you mention, but when confronted with incumbents like SNCF/E* who just milk the market, it‘s better than nothing. If SNCF were SBB… we would not have the discussion anyway because there would be hourly, well-timed connections in Lille Europe (and probably a regular London - Lille „stopper“).

But I totally agree with you: competition will drive down prices, but do nothing for resumed or new destination.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Apr 2025 ==

Being the majority shareholder in the parent company generally doesn't bring with it day-to-day operational or executive control.

The train service is run by Eurostar International Limited, a company headquartered in London, which is owned by Eurostar Group, a company headquartered in Belgium.
SNCF has a 55% Shareholder in Eurostar Group. The other shareholders are the Quebec pension fund (19.31%), SNCB (18.5%) and Federated Hermes Infrastructure, an American investment company (6.44%). Presumably any attempts by SNCF to assume any level of operational control over the train service itself would be noticed by, and objectionable to, SNCB at the very least.

Oh, but the majority shareholder has a large influence on executive positions and will therefore strongly influence not only Long-Term strategy, but also Shorter-Term decisions, if not day-to-day running. Seeing E* as separated from SNCF seems to me very naive.

 

[Trainbike46]

Personally I'd be looking at what could I do to make those other locations more attractive to more people, so that those trains get better loadings. For example, could you work with others to create a travel hub where not only UK trains go but also local and long distance trains so there's a lot of people wanting to go there to go somewhere else.

Eurostar is doing that. Amsterdam-London is seen as a major growth opportunity, and recent terminal upgrades in Amsterdam mean they can sell more seats per train.

 

[zwk500]

Oh, but the majority shareholder has a large influence on executive positions and will therefore strongly influence not only Long-Term strategy, but also Shorter-Term decisions, if not day-to-day running. Seeing E* as separated from SNCF seems to me very naive.

I don't see it as completely separate, but I also recognise it *is* at a greater distance than, say, InOui. And it's an important distinction. To read some of the posts on here you'd think E* was simply an SNCF brand.

SNCF used to have a 40% stake in the old organisational structure of E*, and yet E* expanded deep into France and ordered German trainsets. They'll have a larger influence with the 55% stake, as it's now a majority stake, but it's also important to recognise there's other players in the game. For instance, don't downplay the importance of the investment funds in driving a focus on profitability.

 

[Trainbike46]

I'd be worried about service levels between St Pancras and Brussels in that case.
They can likely make more money by putting everything into Paris or even transferring the sets to the ex Thalys operation.

I suspect that NMBS/SNCB may well object to such a thing, and they are one of the shareholders as well.

On top of that is the importance of the Amsterdam service as pointed out by zwk500. The recent capacity upgrades at Amsterdam are likely to make this route more profitable as well.

I think Eurostar is very expensive, but they do have major costs that domestic operators don't have (HS1 access charges actually being set commercially, and lots more staff than comparable operators).

The tunnel access charges are really high too - not something that competition is likely to improve.

 

[RT4038]

The eternal dilemma. Competition has indeed the consequences you mention, but when confronted with incumbents like SNCF/E* who just milk the market, it‘s better than nothing. If SNCF were SBB… we would not have the discussion anyway because there would be hourly, well-timed connections in Lille Europe (and probably a regular London - Lille „stopper“).

I am not sure that this is a reasonable comparison - after all, SBB don't run any of their trains across the border into France do they? (apart from possibly a share in a E* style operation?). Nor does Switzerland have any borders like the UK-mainland Europe one. I can't think of anything impressive over and above an E* style operation that SBB do between Switzerland and France.

 

[Trainbike46]

I am not sure that this is a reasonable comparison - after all, SBB don't run any of their trains across the border into France do they? (apart from possibly a share in a E* style operation?). Nor does Switzerland have any borders like the UK-mainland Europe one. I can't think of anything impressive over and above an E* style operation that SBB do between Switzerland and France.

TGV Lyria is jointly run by SBB CFF FFS and SNCF

 

[Austriantrain]

I am not sure that this is a reasonable comparison - after all, SBB don't run any of their trains across the border into France do they? (apart from possibly a share in a E* style operation?). Nor does Switzerland have any borders like the UK-mainland Europe one. I can't think of anything impressive over and above an E* style operation that SBB do between Switzerland and France.

I basically meant: If SNCF and E* were run like SBB.

 

[Mawkie]

The tunnel access charges are really high too - not something that competition is likely to improve.

Didn't the ORR recently tell HS1 to reduce those charges? -7.7% is in my mind.

 

[Trainbike46]

Didn't the ORR recently tell HS1 to reduce those charges? -7.7% is in my mind.

The tunnel and HS1 are separate entities. HS1, now STPHS, was ordered to reduce its access charges, which will benefit Eurostar, Southeastern, and any new competitors to either. The tunnel has not been ordered to reduce charges to my knowledge, though their charges reduce by 1.1% in real terms (so increase by inflation -1.1 percentage points). The charges for 2025 are around €4,500 per train, plus €17.93 per passenger (see table below for a "reserved weekly train").

 

[Mawkie]

The tunnel and HS1 are separate entities. HS1, now STPHS, was ordered to reduce its access charges, which will benefit Eurostar, Southeastern, and its competitors. The tunnel has not been ordered to reduce charges to my knowledge, though their charges reduce by 1.1% in real terms (so increase by inflation -1.1 percentage points). The charges for 2025 are around €4,500 per train, plus €17.93 per passenger (see table below for a "reserved weekly train").

View attachment 178502

Thanks! That makes it much clearer.

Presumably the ORR considered the track access charges to be too high and ordered a reduction.

Is there any thoughts that the tunnel charges are too high and will be significantly reduced?

 

[Trainbike46]

Eurotunnel charges are more complicated due to it being an international piece of infrastructure. The track access statement for the tunnel does include some mechanisms for reducing charges in the future, and the 1.1% annual reduction in real terms in one of them. There are others, but to fully understand them you would have to go through the documents available here

 

[RT4038]

TGV Lyria is jointly run by SBB CFF FFS and SNCF

Yes, but they are E* style operation - not particularly different from E*. SBB are not doing anything differently on that corridor to E*

I basically meant: If SNCF and E* were run like SBB.

So if E* was run like SBB, they would have a joint share in a Lyria style operation with GBR? Not sure that would be any better than the current arrangements. Taking a leaf out of the SBB book, I doubt there would be much or even any local service across the border (their one border through a long tunnel doesn't exactly have a regular service of either local or long distance trains [Brig-Domodossola] ) - SBB don't run lots of cross border services, and no local services penetrating any distance into neighbouring countries.

Of course, it is not what SBB decides as such, but what the people of Switzerland are prepared to put their money into - would they have sorted out a Lille Hbf or, more importantly, a Paris Hbf, to make all these seemless connections viable? We do not know, because SBB doesn't have to grapple with such an issue.

 

[Austriantrain]

Yes, but they are E* style operation - not particularly different from E*. SBB are not doing anything differently on that corridor to E*

Oh, but they are, because the Lyria fit exactly into all the domestic and international connections offered in Switzerland, especially in Basel and Zurich (out of necessity as much as out of conviction, but in this case that goes hand in hand).

So if E* was run like SBB, they would have a joint share in a Lyria style operation with GBR? Not sure that would be any better than the current arrangements. Taking a leaf out of the SBB book, I doubt there would be much or even any local service across the border (their one border through a long tunnel doesn't exactly have a regular service of either local or long distance trains [Brig-Domodossola] ) - SBB don't run lots of cross border services, and no local services penetrating any distance into neighbouring countries.

Of course, it is not what SBB decides as such, but what the people of Switzerland are prepared to put their money into - would they have sorted out a Lille Hbf or, more importantly, a Paris Hbf, to make all these seemless connections viable? We do not know, because SBB doesn't have to grapple with such an issue.

If SNCF and E* were run as SBB is, there would be regular intervals all around and good, regular connections at Lille Europe. No need for a Lille Hbf or any other investment in this case - the French LGV network is predestined for a Takt.

Since you don't have any argument - what you write is basically nonsensical - , it seems your posts are your usual agression towards anyone mentioning possible improvements to international services, be it to the UK or on the continent, because you are obsessed with it being a bad idea. I won't bother answering you in the future.