Reform UK discussion

[brad465]

Something that is often overlooked in elections is the biggest changes in voters are between x party and abstention, and/or between abstention and y party. The number of voters who move from x to y or vice versa is actually very small. In these elections Labour and Tory losses will be down largely to their previous voters staying at home. Reform, Lib Dem and Green voters will be a combination of previous non-voters and their previous voters.

We saw this particularly in 2024: Labour didn't convince many voters to switch to them, their tally actually went down on 2019. However, they and others convinced millions of Tory voters to stay at home, their vote share and tally collapsed in an unprecedented way. Allowing Labour to double their previously 200 seats while also retaining the same sort of vote share nationally.

 

[telstarbox]

One thing that needs to be taken into account is who held the seats that are up this time the last time they were contested. I believe that the Conservatives won half as many again in 2021 as all the others combined.

In one way this might prove to be a Pyrrhic victory and the beginning of the end for Reform. They can no longer sit on the sidelines sniping: they are in charge and must deal with the matters. I have no doubt there will be lots of attempts to do things that are illegal or impossible, followed by whines that the government/other parties/the law/the civil service/etc. have it in for them and are stopping their brilliant plans. However, after four years of some of the Reform councils making a hash of things (I accept that some, probably most, won’t be too bad) the excuses will be wearing thin with the voters. And we will also see if they have lost the amateur description and that their slate of councillors will be honest and upright. It is possibly inevitable that any new party will attract a number of fringe nutters, but I wonder if Reform really has managed to weed most of them out. Or will we see local scandals in far greater numbers than the other parties tend to have.

That's a good point. People don't realise how boxed in local authorities are by their statutory responsibilities and they can't rewrite national law.

 

[Ediswan]

That's a good point. People don't realise how boxed in local authorities are by their statutory responsibilities and they can't rewrite national law.

Do Reform have any published policies on social services, bins, potholes etc ?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Do Reform have any published policies on social services, bins, potholes etc ?

I don't think Reform have any published policies. It's just rhetoric.

I'd love to see some to be honest.

 

[m0ffy]

Do Reform have any published policies on social services, bins, potholes etc ?

I had a leaflet waffling on about fixing potholes and ending ‘woke’. Nothing about the crisis in social care, and totally glossing over the fact our county won’t exist this time next year.

 

[adc82140]

It's interesting that the Reform logo is a forward facing arrow, yet they openly go on about returning to the past.

 

[ainsworth74]

Reform are an ongoing, real threat to Labour in the 'red wall' and traditional working class areas that have voted Labour forever. To suggest Reform are only a threat to Tories is incorrect.

Oh yes I definitely think they're a threat to Labour (particularly as you say in the Red Wall), my point is more that if I had to choose between being in the leadership of the Tory party or Labour? I'd rather be in Labour today. There are still paths and options to turn this around as, I think, a decent chunk of the Reform vote in such areas boils down to "a pox on both [Tory & Labour] their houses!". If you can actually start showing that you are changing things for the better rather than just being a continuation of the last 14+ years a decent chunk of that voter base will come back.

The Tories? I have no idea how they win back their voters that are going to Reform. And they're getting a proper shellacking not just in the bits of the Red Wall that won in 2021 (where Labour are also struggling to be clear) but in Tory heartlands as well.

Kent council as already discussed is a proper shoeing but how about Wiltshire? Tory controlled for years and now they've lost 24 seats with the Lib Dems gaining 16 and Reform 10 (Labour lost 2). Warwickshire, has either been Tory controlled or Tory largest party for years and now they've lost 33 seats with Reform gaining 23 and Lib Dems 9 (Labour lost 3).

They've been boxed in by the Lib Dems and Reform all over the place and how do they fight back from that? I honestly think they're potentially facing an extinction level event if they don't come up with something soon.

Labour are in trouble, I wouldn't deny that, but I can see some way for them to course correct and fix it but the Tories look like their in existential danger.

 

[Class 466]

Oh yes I definitely think they're a threat to Labour (particularly as you say in the Red Wall), my point is more that if I had to choose between being in the leadership of the Tory party or Labour? I'd rather be in Labour today. There are still paths and options to turn this around as, I think, a decent chunk of the Reform vote in such areas boils down to "a pox on both [Tory & Labour] their houses!". If you can actually start showing that you are changing things for the better rather than just being a continuation of the last 14+ years a decent chunk of that voter base will come back.

The Tories? I have no idea how they win back their voters that are going to Reform. And they're getting a proper shellacking not just in the bits of the Red Wall that won in 2021 (where Labour are also struggling to be clear) but in Tory heartlands as well.

Kent council as already discussed is a proper shoeing but how about Wiltshire? Tory controlled for years and now they've lost 24 seats with the Lib Dems gaining 16 and Reform 10 (Labour lost 2). Warwickshire, has either been Tory controlled or Tory largest party for years and now they've lost 33 seats with Reform gaining 23 and Lib Dems 9 (Labour lost 3).

They've been boxed in by the Lib Dems and Reform all over the place and how do they fight back from that? I honestly think they're potentially facing an extinction level event if they don't come up with something soon.

Labour are in trouble, I wouldn't deny that, but I can see some way for them to course correct and fix it but the Tories look like their in existential danger.

Labour in Kent also lost some ground to the Lib Dems to be fair. If I were one of Kents newly elected MPs last year (like Ashford which went all in for Reform this time) I'd be a little concerned though - I can see Ashford easily flipping to Reform at a GE as it's pretty right leaning.

 

[telstarbox]

Although people vote more for smaller parties at local level. It's lower risk and wards tend to be more homogenous than constituencies so parties can break through. Our town has two Green councillors in a safe Tory constituency.

 

[dangie]

Apologies if this has already been said.

Knowing how politicians think (basically of themselves), how soon before some failed Labour or Conservative’s suddenly change alliance to the Reform Party?

 

[dgl]

I'm waiting for all the by-elections, it can't be long before a reform candidate does something stupid and is forced out.

Like a lot of other people have said reform now actually have to do some working I doubt many of their candidates have any clue what to do other than spouting rhetoric.
Spouting rhetoric doesn't get the bins emptied, social care sorted or pot holes filled!

 

[DarloRich]

Apologies if this has already been said.

Knowing how politicians think (basically of themselves), how soon before some failed Labour or Conservative’s suddenly change alliance to the Reform Party?

have you seen who won the Lincolnshire mayoral election....................

 

[Class 466]

Doncaster proof that this goes way deeper than people switching from the Conservatives. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t?post=asset:2f9f1f43-8cc4-4ff1-9acb-b0104346b32c#post

 

[brad465]

I had a leaflet waffling on about fixing potholes and ending ‘woke’. Nothing about the crisis in social care, and totally glossing over the fact our county won’t exist this time next year.

This is news to me.

Apologies if this has already been said.

Knowing how politicians think (basically of themselves), how soon before some failed Labour or Conservative’s suddenly change alliance to the Reform Party?

From the Tories, potentially this month one or two if there have been backroom discussions. I think Labour defections would more likely go Lib Dem, Green or this Gaza Independent group, depending on where they sit. The ones to watch in any case are suspended Labour MPs yet to be readmitted who might fancy their chances elsewhere, and Rosie Duffield who quit on her own accord.

 

[m0ffy]

This is news to me.

Rutland, Leicestershire CC, and the district councils within it are being abolished and replaced with 2 unitary authorities. Of course, we don’t yet know if that’ll be North & South Leicestershire (favoured by the districts), or Leicestershire UA and a separate Rutland UA.

 

[ainsworth74]

Cornwall was quite the battering for the Tories -40 seats! Going to be a nightmare trying to piece together some sort of governing coalition as well. Reform have 28 seats, Lib Dems 26, Independents 16, Tories 7, Labour 4, Greens 3 and Mebyon Kernow 3. Good luck to all involved! Buckinghamshire another battering as well. Tories -30 with still a handful of seats to declare there. I mean they're losing control of places like Buckinghamshire!

 

[sor]

Cornwall was quite the battering for the Tories -40 seats! Going to be a nightmare trying to piece together some sort of governing coalition as well. Reform have 28 seats, Lib Dems 26, Independents 16, Tories 7, Labour 4, Greens 3 and Mebyon Kernow 3. Good luck to all involved! Buckinghamshire another battering as well. Tories -30 with still a handful of seats to declare there. I mean they're losing control of places like Buckinghamshire!

Aside from general apathy leading to the rise of Reform, I gather the Cornish Tories have had their own specific issues. The airport / "spaceport" features in many of them. There was also the defunding of the county museum as one of their first acts after taking control in 2021

So I'm not surprised they were turfed out again, but rather less enthused about who's replacing them.

 

[johnnychips]

Doncaster proof that this goes way deeper than people switching from the Conservatives. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t?post=asset:2f9f1f43-8cc4-4ff1-9acb-b0104346b32c#post

Exactly. Just imagine if there had been elections in places like Rotherham, Barnsley, Bolton, Kirklees and so on.

 

[The_Train]

Do Reform have any published policies on social services, bins, potholes etc ?

Yes, they will stop the boats

 

[Gloster]

One curiosity is that in some areas Reform have gone virtually nowhere: one seat in Oxfordshire and three in Buckinghamshire. In some counties the vote seems to have gone to the Liberal-Democrats, in others it may have been stay at home.. No doubt people will be doing some careful assessment of the social make-up of those districts that went to Reform.

One other thought. A win by six votes is all very welcome to Reform, but with the background to the by-election and all the pre-election hype, it really is not as impressive as Farage claims.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

One curiosity is that in some areas Reform have gone virtually nowhere: one seat in Oxfordshire and three in Buckinghamshire. In some counties the vote seems to have gone to the Liberal-Democrats, in others it may have been stay at home.. No doubt people will be doing some careful assessment of the social make-up of those districts that went to Reform.

One other thought. A win by six votes is all very welcome to Reform, but with the background to the by-election and all the pre-election hype, it really is not as impressive as Farage claims.

They've come nowhere to be in a position to compete and take the seat albeit I agree it will easily flip back to Labour and next GE. The electorate in some areas, generally the less well off are done with existing parties which have promised the earth and delivered nothing for them for decades so why not register a protest vote. Reality is Torys will recover by the next GE but won't win and Labour will stay in power albeit with a significantly reduced majority so on the UK goes with a political system that doesn't deliver anything differrent.

 

[JamesT]

One curiosity is that in some areas Reform have gone virtually nowhere: one seat in Oxfordshire and three in Buckinghamshire. In some counties the vote seems to have gone to the Liberal-Democrats, in others it may have been stay at home.. No doubt people will be doing some careful assessment of the social make-up of those districts that went to Reform.

One other thought. A win by six votes is all very welcome to Reform, but with the background to the by-election and all the pre-election hype, it really is not as impressive as Farage claims.

They may have only won one seat in Oxfordshire, but from a brief skim of the results they were second or third in most seats. Although it’s not natural Reform territory, I could see continuing disillusionment with Labour and Conservative parties leading to further swings their way.

 

[Omnidekkalover]

If Farage claims he had the tories for breakfast and Labour for lunch, the that by my logic leaves only reform for dinner

 

[AlterEgo]

I think that probably means appealing to the younger voter. Which means accepting the loss of the Boomer vote with things like increased taxation and rejoining the EU, in order to get the money to fix public services.

To me the majority of the Boomer vote is now lost to Reform, probably irrevocably. So let it go and create positive progressive politics for people who will vote for that.

Labour-Lib Dem-Green left wing coalition, anyone?

Under no circumstances will the latter two parties join with Labour, who are very far gone now. The Labour Party is not a progressive party; it is a party of grey authoritarians with a miserabilist message.

Labour are currently joint last with Greens in terms of number of councillors

Deserved.

I had a leaflet waffling on about fixing potholes and ending ‘woke’. Nothing about the crisis in social care, and totally glossing over the fact our county won’t exist this time next year.

The local party here had no policies but did want to “uphold British values”, whatever they may be.

 

[Harpo]

For now, Reform only has a base in a few local authorities. They have no control over national policy or our borders and will still be bound by existing laws on equality, employment, immigration etc., with little likelihood of those changing in the next four years.

I will be watching with interest.

 

[Class 466]

Exactly. Just imagine if there had been elections in places like Rotherham, Barnsley, Bolton, Kirklees and so on.

There was a council by-election in Rochdale yesterday that went from Labour to Reform as well!

 

[The Ham]

Doncaster proof that this goes way deeper than people switching from the Conservatives. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t?post=asset:2f9f1f43-8cc4-4ff1-9acb-b0104346b32c#post

Whilst that's true, Doncaster also illustrates the impact on the main parties, whilst Labour lost 70% of their seats the Tories lost 83%.

Whilst Reform are an issue for Labour (in some areas more than others) they are generally a bigger threat to the Tories.

Yes, they will stop the boats

Indeed. Boats are generally bad news for the structural integrity of roads as water in the subbase is likely to result in potholes.

 

[styles]

For now, Reform only has a base in a few local authorities. They have no control over national policy or our borders and will still be bound by existing laws on equality, employment, immigration etc., with little likelihood of those changing in the next four years.

I will be watching with interest.

I wouldn't get too complacent mind.

We got complacent about Brexit when the polls were on our side, same with Trump

Farage has a reasonable history of success, leading the largest party elected to the European Union and recently (eventually) managing to become an MP.

Reform now have 2 mayors and 5 MPs, 800 councillors, and control 10 councils.

There is clearly a change in political opinion in the UK. It needs credible alternatives and voices to challenge it. If we carry on on this trajectory otherwise, Reform will be far from a small party with a handful of MPs in a few years time.

 

[The_Train]

The local party here had no policies but did want to “uphold British values”, whatever they may be.

I believe it is getting everyone back working in workhouses, earning a shilling a month and walking around wearing old coal bags as clothes!

Indeed. Boats are generally bad news for the structural integrity of roads as water in the subbase is likely to result in potholes.

A good point, well made!

It appears that Stafford has been infiltrated by Reformists. I shall venture down to the mammoth River Sow which runs through Stafford and has direct links to the English Channel (or so you would believe) to ensure the barricades have been put up to stop this access route being used as frequently as it is now

 

[BingMan]

I'm waiting for all the by-elections, it can't be long before a reform candidate does something stupid and is forced out.

Like a lot of other people have said reform now actually have to do some working I doubt many of their candidates have any clue what to do other than spouting rhetoric.
Spouting rhetoric doesn't get the bins emptied, social care sorted or pot holes filled!

Indeed. My area - Derbyshire - have got a massive Reform majority. It will be interesting to see how much improvement they make in those areas.

Locally we elected an independent: Ruth George, the incumbent who was deselected by the CLP. How we laughed when the official labour candidate got a mere 4% of the vote compared with Ruth's 57%