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But Reform’s secret was not really to tell anybody what they stood for. There was nothing about the various attitudes, I am hesitant to say ‘policies’, that they hold: just ‘Stop foreigners’, anti-woke and vaguely pro-motorist. Few policies that might make some of their voters think again before voting and no detail about their few promises. I fear that too many people voted for them in order to vote against Labour or the Conservatives, without knowing what they were voting for.
The hope then is that more and more people will see Reform for what they are, and what they are in my personal view is that they are to the right of hard-right.
I'm surprised so many people voted for them just because they were "not Labour or the Tories"; are there so many people with so little awareness of the politics of Farage, Anderson, Tice and the rest? Do people who are not hard-right really see them as a better alternative to Labour or the Tories?
Tough. More people voted anti-Reform than Reform, therefore it's right that the anti-Reform bloc win. If the non-Reform parties can work together with a majority, so be it. Cornwall can consider themselves to have had a lucky escape. I wouldn't want to be living in Kent, Lancashire, Durham, etc, now - those counties are going to have a truly grim time for the next 12 months at least.
If Reform don't want to be excluded maybe they need a bit of self-awareness and understand why a lot of people dislike them with unbridled passion.
But Reform’s secret was not really to tell anybody what they stood for. There was nothing about the various attitudes, I am hesitant to say ‘policies’, that they hold: just ‘Stop foreigners’, anti-woke and vaguely pro-motorist. Few policies that might make some of their voters think again before voting and no detail about their few promises. I fear that too many people voted for them in order to vote against Labour or the Conservatives, without knowing what they were voting for.
Not Ukraine flags, of course. And especially not Pride flags.
The very fact that they want to ban non-approved flags just shows the authoritarianism and control-freakery which are characteristic of Reform, and gives a taster of just how authoritarian things would likely become under a Reform government.
Tough. More people voted anti-Reform than Reform, therefore it's right that the anti-Reform bloc win. If the non-Reform parties can work together with a majority, so be it. Cornwall can consider themselves to have had a lucky escape. I wouldn't want to be living in Kent, Lancashire, Durham, etc, now - those counties are going to have a truly grim time for the next 12 months at least.
If Reform don't want to be excluded maybe they need a bit of self-awareness and understand why a lot of people dislike them with unbridled passion.
We can dismiss it as 'tough', but that is not going to win back any Reform voters to another party next time round; if anything this will strengthen their resolve that Farage/Reform are fighting 'the establishment'.
For all my criticism of FPTP, I do think excluding the largest party is going against the wishes of the voting public. The UK hasn't had a general election where any party has won 50%+ of the vote share since 1931. People would've been rightly miffed if the coalitions formed since then didn't include the party which secured the largest share of the votes or seats. We didn't even do it during wartime.
I personally think this will just give Reform and easier ride in the next election. Whereas if they'd been put in control as part of a coalition, they'd have been shown up for their lack of policies and experience. Instead they'll get to snipe from the sidelines and berate the controlling parties for their exclusion and not respecting the vote.
We can dismiss it as 'tough', but that is not going to win back any Reform voters to another party next time round; if anything this will strengthen their resolve that Farage/Reform are fighting 'the establishment'.
For all my criticism of FPTP, I do think excluding the largest party is going against the wishes of the voting public. The UK hasn't had a general election where any party has won 50%+ of the vote share since 1931. People would've been rightly miffed if the coalitions formed since then didn't include the party which secured the largest share of the votes or seats. We didn't even do it during wartime.
I personally think this will just give Reform and easier ride in the next election. Whereas if they'd been put in control as part of a coalition, they'd have been shown up for their lack of policies and experience. Instead they'll get to snipe from the sidelines and berate the controlling parties for their exclusion and not respecting the vote.
I'd still disagree. For example what if the next election ended up with something like Reform 30%, Labour 25%, Tories 20%, LibDems 15%, Green 10%.
There's thus clearly a 70% vote for non-Reform parties and just 30% Reform.
Would a Reform minority government really be a more ethical solution than a Lab/Lib Dem/Green coalition or even (conceivable if they move back to the centre under someone other than Badenoch) an "anyone but Reform" Lab/Tory coalition?
There's still plenty of time for Reform to gain other councils and thoroughly screw them up in the next four years. Unless they moderate their tone they aren't going to win moderate voters.
I'd still disagree. For example what if the next election ended up with something like Reform 30%, Labour 25%, Tories 20%, LibDems 15%, Green 10% (quite a likely outcome at the moment).
There's thus clearly a 70% vote for non-Reform parties and just 30% Reform.
Would a Reform minority government really be a more ethical solution than a Lab/Lib Dem/Green coalition or even (conceivable if they move back to the centre under someone other than Badenoch) an "anyone but Reform" Lab/Tory coalition?
There's still plenty of time for Reform to gain other councils and thoroughly screw them up in the next four years. Unless they moderate then they aren't going to win moderate voters, unless the UK really is a country where people think that voting in a party which contains members who think that depression doesn't exist is really a sensible choice. Reform are nothing more than reactionary, hard-right, authoritarian flat-earthers: anyone with half a brain can see that.
That's my point though - if this happened to say Labour or Conservatives, the public wouldn't stand for it. Imagine in 2010 a government was formed without the Conservatives? People would rightly be fuming.
It's only being justified now because it's Reform.
More people voted Reform in this council area than anybody else. To exclude them from the coalition is bonkers.
That's my point though - if this happened to say Labour or Conservatives, the public wouldn't stand for it. Imagine in 2010 a government was formed without the Conservatives? People would rightly be fuming.
It's only being justified now because it's Reform.
More people voted Reform in this council area than anybody else. To exclude them from the coalition is bonkers.
It could have happened - the Lib Dems could have refused to enter into a coalition (and for a few years afterwards probably wished they hadn't). If the Lib Dems had refused to hold their noses and join the coalition would they have been denounced as the party that prevented the biggest party from governing, or applauded for being the one that stuck to their principles?
It could have happened - the Lib Dems could have refused to enter into a coalition (and for a few years afterwards probably wished they hadn't). If the Lib Dems had refused to hold their noses and join the coalition would they have been denounced as the party that prevented the biggest party from governing, or applauded for being the one that stuck to their principles?
It could have happened - the Lib Dems could have refused to enter into a coalition (and for a few years afterwards probably wished they hadn't). If the Lib Dems had refused to hold their noses and join the coalition would they have been denounced as the party that prevented the biggest party from governing, or applauded for being the one that stuck to their principles?
No, "the public" wouldn't have any real right to be outraged. If the Lib Dems didn't agree with the Conservative Party they would have had every right to refuse to join the coalition.
In that case a Tory minority government would have been the fairest outcome.
Reform are, in my view, dangerous and need to be kept out of power by any legal means possible, and if that means the 2nd and 3rd parties governing in coalition, that's perfectly fair and reasonable in my view if those 2nd and 3rd parties together exceed Reform in votes/seats.
That wasn't really my point, and whether an individual considers Reform to be dangerous is by the by. Its about the fundamentals of how our democracy works - there isn't, and never should be, any obligation on any smaller party to form a coalition to enable the largest party to govern with a working majority.
The alternatives are a minority government, with limited powers to effect change; a confidence and supply agreement (and occasional pseudo bribery) like the Tories had with the DUP; another election; or a coalition of other parties
It could have happened - the Lib Dems could have refused to enter into a coalition (and for a few years afterwards probably wished they hadn't). If the Lib Dems had refused to hold their noses and join the coalition would they have been denounced as the party that prevented the biggest party from governing, or applauded for being the one that stuck to their principles?
The most likely option if the LibDems hadn't entered the coalition in 2010 would have been a minority Conservative government. Clegg had stated before the election that in the event of a hung parliament they would open negotiations first the with largest party. A LibLab coalition would still not have had a majority and a 'rainbow' coalition would have been massively unstable, even if they could agree on common aims.
Which principles are those? In many ways the LibDems and the Conservatives were more aligned in 2010 than the other pairings.
How do you know that those 70% that didn't vote Reform are necessarily opposed to them being in the government? This is the same dodgy maths people were using around the post-Brexit elections to state that clearly there was a majority in favour of a second referendum, when it did nothing of the kind.
How do you know that those 70% that didn't vote Reform are necessarily opposed to them being in the government? This is the same dodgy maths people were using around the post-Brexit elections to state that clearly there was a majority in favour of a second referendum, when it did nothing of the kind.
Because to me, Reform are a very hardline party and I strongly suspect that most of those who voted for other parties would be part of the sensible majority who regard Reform with deep concern. If they liked Reform they would have probably voted for them. Or are you telling me that most people would not be deeply concerned about a party containing a prominent council member who claims that depression doesn't exist? A party that wants to ban foreign flags, even from countries that we are friendly with? A party that seems to be completely obsessed with fighting "woke" issues? This is not a reasonable, rational or measured party - and I suspect reasonable, rational and measured people would regard Reform with a good deal of fear and worry and a threat to the relative moderation by which this country has been governed since WWII.
Would any more than 30% of us really see Farage as prime ministerial material?
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If one wants to know what a particular party's policies are, don't look at what they say are their policies, look at what the views of whoever bankrolls them are.
Of course opening negotiations doesn't mean following through with an agreement if the terms don't suit you. Infact with coalition governments across the world its pretty common for negotiations with one party to fail and for them to carry on with another.
Not really. Simplistically, if 30% of the public vote for one right-leaning party, but the other 70% of the public vote for an assortment of left-leaning parties, there is clearly an overall desire towards a left-leaning government. Having a right-leaning government just because one party got more votes than any other individual party (as opposed to getting the majority overall) would, surely, be less fair!
Not really. Simplistically, if 30% of the public vote for one right-leaning party, but the other 70% of the public vote for an assortment of left-leaning parties, there is clearly an overall desire towards a left-leaning government. Having a right-leaning government just because one party got more votes than any other individual party (as opposed to getting the majority overall) would, surely, be less fair!
True, though you could argue that said Tory minority government would struggle to get any more controversial stuff through Parliament, while any really important legislation in the national interest would have got the support of the other parties.
I'd tend to agree that in 2010 there was probably a majority of left/centre over right, but there was also quite a bit of dislike of Labour so you could argue that a government containing Labour would also have been against public desire. And while I was certainly no fan of the Tories at the time, I didn't think the outcome was unfair. If I'd have been the Lib Dems though, I'd have refused the coalition and left the Tories to govern alone in minority. The coalition trashed the Lib Dems' reputation for a while, and led to a much worse outcome in 2015. Leaving the Tories to govern alone in 2010 would have probably meant a much stronger Lib Dem vote in 2015, no Tory majority in 2015, no referendum, no Brexit and probably no Truss. Perhaps 2015 would have been won by a Lab-Lib Dem coalition. We might have got Boris eventually (in a hypothetical 2020 election) but probably a much more benign version.
I always think it's a shame we don't have more minority governments and coalitions. IMV it's majority governments, who get into power on 30-45% of the vote, which are really bad for democracy.
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Getting seriously frightened about the opinion polls for the last month, constantly having Reform on around 30%, with Labour on a little over 20% and the Tories on only 16% or so.
So basically, is the UK screwed for the next 10 years now and the soonest it will recover is around 2034, i.e. the next election but one?
One thing seems likely, if life is bad now it will be 100 times worse if Reform get in.
Basically, my own view is there is a fair chance that the UK will become an intolerable place to live if they win. And it's very worrying when almost a third of us appear to support the hard-right. This is literally a situation that this country has never been in since WWII, and it is very alarming.
All the above is my own opinions, theories and conjecture, of course.
This from Lancashire seems to give a taster of what life under Reform might be like:
The Reform UK politician poised to be installed as the new leader of Lancashire County Council says a planned union protest ahead of the meeting at which he will officially take up the role is “a direct attack on the democratic will of the people”.
So if you protest against Reform you're "anti-democratic"? I guess "democracy" in their eyes means giving absolute power to the largest minority and telling the rest of us to shut up. The "will of the people" cliche coming out again, a.k.a the will of the largest minority. Authoritarian and very worrying.
All the progress made by Starmer on the international stage: managing Trump effectively, good relations with Macron and Merz, playing an active part with Ukraine - undone and far worse.. The UK will become utterly isolated on the international stage if they get in, I'm sure. It's likely no-one will want anything to do with us. Do people really want that over the relatively calm and measured Starmer? Do people want that over the right-wing but relatively reasonable Tories?
People need to organise against Reform, and now - before it's too late. There needs to be an organised and non-partisan anti-Reform movement to (figuratively) fight them and keep them out of power, to protect the way of life we've enjoyed for 60 or more years. If that means all other parties coming together as an "anti-Reform Alliance", so be it. This is a time of crisis for the UK and radical steps may be necessary to keep Reform out, including the other parties casting aside partisanism for a few years.
But it's hard to understand the views of this 30%, to be honest. Are they really oblivious to what's going on in the USA with Trump? Do they really want the UK to become a Trumpist hell-hole? Because there's a big risk it will become one, and as we lack the power and influence of the USA, we will be much less able to drag ourselves out of the mess compared to the USA when it's finally rid of Trump.
Why don't they just support the Tories instead? Badenoch seems pretty small-c conservative but in a relatively moderate way compared to this lot. Why are more of us not fearful of Reform? They will do nothing but damage to this country.
I do wonder if the 30% is only counting those who actually answered with a party.
For quote a few people if you were to ask them who they'd vote for quite a few would say "I don't know' (not least because people don't know what their policies are - especially for the Tories).
The latest YouGov pole had two questions, the first on Westminster Voting Intention:
The next asked "thinking specifically about your own constituency, if there were a general election held tomorrow and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?" The number within the brackets are the percentages of those who answered with a party based on the percentage (there raw data isn't provided):
Reform 21% (28%)
Labour 16% (21%)
Conservatives 14% (18%)
Lib Dems 11% (14%)
Greens 9% (12%)
Others 5% (6%)
Would not vote 11%
Don't know 13%
Refused 3%
Given the sample size was 2,004 adults in the UK it's possible that those answering the questions are weighted one way or another which may give spurious results.
It's also likely that those who don't know may rule out certain parties but otherwise don't know.
That's not too say that those who don't wish to have a Reform government shouldn't take action, rather the fact that there's the potential that the "don't knows" can assist things significantly
For example (an unlikely one, but it proves the point) if all the "don't knows" voted Lib Dems that they would be the largest party with a lead of 3 percentage points over Reform.
I do wonder if the 30% is only counting those who actually answered with a party.
For quote a few people if you were to ask them who they'd vote for quite a few would say "I don't know' (not least because people don't know what their policies are - especially for the Tories).
The latest YouGov pole had two questions, the first on Westminster Voting Intention:
The next asked "thinking specifically about your own constituency, if there were a general election held tomorrow and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?" The number within the brackets are the percentages of those who answered with a party based on the percentage (there raw data isn't provided):
Reform 21% (28%)
Labour 16% (21%)
Conservatives 14% (18%)
Lib Dems 11% (14%)
Greens 9% (12%)
Others 5% (6%)
Would not vote 11%
Don't know 13%
Refused 3%
Given the sample size was 2,004 adults in the UK it's possible that those answering the questions are weighted one way or another which may give spurious results.
It's also likely that those who don't know may rule out certain parties but otherwise don't know.
That's not too say that those who don't wish to have a Reform government shouldn't take action, rather the fact that there's the potential that the "don't knows" can assist things significantly
For example (an unlikely one, but it proves the point) if all the "don't knows" voted Lib Dems that they would be the largest party with a lead of 3 percentage points over Reform.
You raise good points but I don’t think the uncertainties meaningfully change the underlying data that much. YouGov aren’t the only pollsters, pretty much everyone agrees that they have somewhere in the region of a 10 point lead and they all use slightly different methodologies. There’s a nice table on Wikipedia displaying these.
I can see reform making big inroads here in wales, bear in mind we have had labour since 1999 ish, and the country is worse for it. to be fair it wasn't too bad till 2015 ish, but soon as covid hit. it has got worse with very strict lockdowns (we were stopped from buying stuff in shops as he thought it was non essential but he has no right to dictate) , obsession with climate change, and massive war on motorists. plus other things as well. Plaid are just obsessed with independence which will not happen. The tourist tax is plaid as they don't want people in their little villages and anti english sentiment in certain parts of wales (namely mid and north west wales)
I have voted conservative myself previously but willing to give reform a chance. Reform are uniting both labour and conservative voters. I work up the valleys and alot of my work mates who were staunch labour supporters are now voting reform. Wales needs change.
I look at the USA and think 'yeah, we definitely want some of that'. I think Reform would be the closest we'd get to a Trump MAGA regime - with all the anti immigration rhetoric, tax cuts for the rich, axing healthcare for those deemed unworthy (one Republican pointed out this week that we all die anyway) and a hatred of LGBTQ+, flags and so on.
Oh and forget about things like having almost a whole day of negatively priced electricity thanks to wind and solar... oh, no, let's axe Net Zero and fire up those coal power stations again and get people back down the mines.
I can see reform making big inroads here in wales, bear in mind we have had labour since 1999 ish, and the country is worse for it. to be fair it wasn't too bad till 2015 ish, but soon as covid hit. it has got worse with very strict lockdowns (we were stopped from buying stuff in shops as he thought it was non essential but he has no right to dictate) , obsession with climate change, and massive war on motorists. plus other things as well.
War on motorists?
You can get pretty much anywhere in Wales, and indeed the UK, at any time of day or week, with a car. The same cannot be said about trains and buses, sadly.
What we need is improved public transport, not the end of some imaginary war on the motorist which doesn't exist and never has existed since at least the 1980s, and probably longer.
Plaid are just obsessed with independence which will not happen. The tourist tax is plaid as they don't want people in their little villages and anti english sentiment in certain parts of wales (namely mid and north west wales)
Tourist tax is common in many places in the world, I've paid it myself in continental Europe without complaining about it and thinking it's charged because the locals don't like people from outside. It's a reasonable way for visitors to contribute to local services and you can get some perks from it too, like free train travel.
Tourist tax is a far better way of raising funds for services than making Snowdon private property and charging an entrance fee, for example.
I look at the USA and think 'yeah, we definitely want some of that'. I think Reform would be the closest we'd get to a Trump MAGA regime - with all the anti immigration rhetoric, tax cuts for the rich, axing healthcare for those deemed unworthy (one Republican pointed out this week that we all die anyway) and a hatred of LGBTQ+, flags and so on.
Oh and forget about things like having almost a whole day of negatively priced electricity thanks to wind and solar... oh, no, let's axe Net Zero and fire up those coal power stations again and get people back down the mines.
Do people actually want a MAGA setup here? Do people actually want a potential severe erosion of civil rights and attack on minorites?
Or are many British people simply completely ignorant of what's going on in the USA and know nothing about Donald Trump besides being "that funny American president with the baseball cap"? Know nothing about the MAGA movement and DOGE? Nothing about the expulsion of immigrants from the USA seemingly for nothing more than being on a pro-Palestine protest?
Are most British people more concerned about imaginary wars on the motorist and stopping the spread of cycle lanes and bus gates than the erosion of civil rights that might well take place under Reform?
If so, time for them to wake up. And wake up quick.
I can see reform making big inroads here in wales, bear in mind we have had labour since 1999 ish, and the country is worse for it. to be fair it wasn't too bad till 2015 ish, but soon as covid hit. it has got worse with very strict lockdowns (we were stopped from buying stuff in shops as he thought it was non essential but he has no right to dictate) , obsession with climate change, and massive war on motorists. plus other things as well. Plaid are just obsessed with independence which will not happen. The tourist tax is plaid as they don't want people in their little villages and anti english sentiment in certain parts of wales (namely mid and north west wales)
I have voted conservative myself previously but willing to give reform a chance. Reform are uniting both labour and conservative voters. I work up the valleys and alot of my work mates who were staunch labour supporters are now voting reform. Wales needs change.
Wales has full PR voting, so Reform being the largest Party isn't enough, they need to find friends to form a coalition with. Given the only ones who might work with them are the Tories, who are polling really badly and in any case may not like the idea of being a junior partner, Reform could easily be the largest party but unable to be in Government.
Do people actually want a MAGA setup here? Do people actually want a potential severe erosion of civil rights and attack on minorites? Do people actually want crucial sectors of our economy potentially being defunded because they contain, in the eyes of Reform (so might not be true), too many liberals and intellectuals?
Or are many British people simply completely ignorant of what's going on in the USA and know nothing about Donald Trump besides being "that funny American president with the baseball cap"? Know nothing about the MAGA movement and DOGE? Nothing about the expulsion of immigrants from the USA seemingly for nothing more than being on a pro-Palestine protest?
Are most British people more concerned about imaginary wars on the motorist and stopping the spread of cycle lanes and bus gates than the erosion of civil rights that might well take place under Reform?
If so, time for them to wake up. And wake up quick.
This is the same country that shot itself in the foot by voting for Brexit, and have voted for the same people yet again (Reform is of course the continuation of the Brexit Party). It’s also a country that is heavily influenced by tabloid media, and their dog-whistle rhetoric on hating minorities and anything they consider ‘woke’. So, it’s unlikely they will wake up.
This is the same country that shot itself in the foot by voting for Brexit, and have voted for the same people yet again (Reform is of course the continuation of the Brexit Party). It’s also a country that is heavily influenced by tabloid media, and their dog-whistle rhetoric on hating minorities and anything they consider ‘woke’. So, it’s unlikely they will wake up.
On the other hand I think that voting for Reform is a bigger leap from our traditional norms than voting for Brexit. (And to clarify, I always was, and still am, one of the biggest critics of Brexit on here).
I wouldn't call six-member D'Hondt full PR by any means, though it should be a fair bit better (from that point of view) than the previous setup, which consistently delivered Welsh Labour near-majorities on vote percentages somewhere in the 30s - rather less, in fact, than the winning party at many Westminster elections.
I'm thinking how the next election campaign might play out if Reform go into it with poll ratings similar to what they have now. I think it'll be a first for them, insofar as they'd be expected * to have proper, costed policies if what they would do rather than "politics of opposition" policies of what's wrong with all the other parties. Everything Farage has achieved electorally so far has been as a voice of protest
* unfortunately I think this expectation might be on the part of rational voters, not the more rabid of their followers
I guess one crumb of comfort is that in 1980 and 1981 Thatcher and the Tories were massively unpopular. By 1983 they won the election with a large majority (not a good thing IMO, but I'm using it to make a point). This does suggest that just because a party is massively unpopular early in its term, it may still win. Events might (hopefully) conspire to support the established parties and hurt Reform.
I do still wonder whether Boris might make a comeback and throw the next election wide open. I suggested this a few weeks ago and now I see Private Eye appear to be implying the same possibility on their front cover. No fan of Boris but if he did come back I suspect he would be massively less bad than Reform. While I would much prefer Starmer II to Boris II, it would be appropriate atonement for Brexit and Partygate if he did save the country from Reform.
I guess one crumb of comfort is that in 1980 and 1981 Thatcher and the Tories were massively unpopular. By 1983 they won the election with a large majority (not a good thing IMO, but I'm using it to make a point). This does suggest that just because a party is massively unpopular early in its term, it may still win. Events might (hopefully) conspire to support the established parties and hurt Reform.
I do still wonder whether Boris might make a comeback and throw the next election wide open. I suggested this a few weeks ago and now I see Private Eye appear to be implying the same possibility on their front cover. No fan of Boris but if he did come back I suspect he would be massively less bad than Reform. While I would much prefer Starmer II to Boris II, it would be appropriate atonement for Brexit and Partygate if he did save the country from Reform.
Who can we persuade to invade one of our remaining British Overseas Territories? Ask the penguins of Heard Island to invade Pitcairn Island so that we can rouse the nation by sending HMS Tesco and ten members of the Royal Armoured Sanitary Corps to liberate the island?
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