New DfT rail usage figures, big increase

[dk1]

Similarly I wouldn’t rely on our rail network to get me to the airport for a flight either…

I wouldn’t rely on the road network in the same respect. Just give yourself plenty of time whatever transport you use to get there.

 

[John R]

I suspect that this is one of those dodgy valet parking firms. Claims that your car is being stored securely but sticks them wherever is cheapest.

That is my assumption, and there are comments on a local FB group for the area that confirms that. There is a crackdown on unofficial car parks around the airport which would make the station car park an attractive option for such an operation.

 

[The Ham]

And even if they compare raw numbers from 2025 to 2019, they will need to come up with a way to counteract the large rise in split tickets.

Especially on LNER routes due to their fare increases with the removal of the super offpeak fares

Which is why, when they was a criticism of passenger growth for HS2 I used the regional data as split ticketing doesn't alter the number going London/Scotland, and whilst it may alter the number going London/West Midlands and West Midlands/Scotland, the regional numbers for Scotland were similar or slightly higher than London/ West Midlands so probably want a significant number.

How many places is this improved public transport intended to serve? It cannot cover every possible use case - for Chesterfield, for example, people may be driving because they live out in the wilds of Derbyshire and travelling very early or very late in the day.

But they can never be sufficient to serve a sparsely populated rural area.

You don't need buses to provide access from everywhere for it to alter the number of cars wishing to use a stain car park.

For example, you have 10 rural villages and an urban housing estate, the 10 villages and those don't early/late from the urban housing estate can carry on using the car park whilst more people can use the buses from the urban area.

The net result may not actually result in fewer cars parked, rather more people using the trains as there's them more parking available for those who otherwise couldn't use the car park but now can as (say) 10 people who used to drive now use the bus (along with several other people who are new to the railways as the bus is now more reliable).

That is my assumption, and there are comments on a local FB group for the area that confirms that. There is a crackdown on unofficial car parks around the airport which would make the station car park an attractive option for such an operation.

Whilst an easy to think of restriction may have problems, there may well be a way.

 

[Trainbike46]

How many places is this improved public transport intended to serve? It cannot cover every possible use case - for Chesterfield, for example, people may be driving because they live out in the wilds of Derbyshire and travelling very early or very late in the day.

You don't have to serve everyone though; you just have to persuade enough people to stop driving to the station so the car park is sufficiently sized for the people who don't.

An alternative that railway-owned (but not council-owned) station car parks use in the Netherlands is that there are 2 rates; one (reasonably cheap) rate charged if travelling by rail, and one (very expensive) rate charged if not travelling by train. The payment machines can scan train tickets to validate train travel has been undertaken, and it is presented as a steep discount for railway passengers.

I would also add that at most stations the vast majority of passengers don't arrive by car, so how full car parks are is a terrible way to measure rail usage.

 

[Class 170101]

I would also add that at most stations the vast majority of passengers don't arrive by car, so how full car parks are is a terrible way to measure rail usage.

Certainly in these days of home working. If both people (in a household) are working the car brings two people to the station and then goes home with one person to used by said other person working at home, so called Kiss and Ride.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I keep a very close eye on several station car parks but particularly Manningtree and Cambridge North. Now the former was extended controversially before the pandemic and has never reached its potential until the last six months or so proving that even more cars park at this station (Tuesday-Thursday) than at ever before. Cambridge Norths car parks on these days and occasionally at weekends is also the busiest in its history now that passenger numbers are up and over the one million per annum.

The 7 am from Norwich is now full by Manningtree on a Thursday, I'm assuming the 6:30 is probably similar.

 

[dk1]

The 7 am from Norwich is now full by Manningtree on a Thursday, I'm assuming the 6:30 is probably similar.

Yes mate. Extremely busy trains with more seating than ever before. Perhaps we need to go back to 06:28/06:55/07:10.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Yes mate. Extremely busy trains with more seating than ever before. Perhaps we need to go back to 06:28/06:55/07:10.

I can't see that happening anytime soon unless another Stansted unit is used to supplement.. although if passenger numbers continue to grow it will be needed

 

[manmikey]

I can't see that happening anytime soon unless another Stansted unit is used to supplement.. although if passenger numbers continue to grow it will be needed

Maybe it's time for GA to expand the 745/0 fleet, but I can't see the DFT/treasury funding new stock any time soon, if only there was a way to get new stock built and paid for on a lease basis, perhaps by a private company, Starmer could even stand outside the factory for the PR shots?

 

[hwl]

Maybe it's time for GA to expand the 745/0 fleet, but I can't see the DFT/treasury funding new stock any time soon, if only there was a way to get new stock built and paid for on a lease basis, perhaps by a private company, Starmer could even stand outside the factory for the PR shots?

Plenty of 720s available there is no need for new stock.
The main problems is that the Abellio bid team tried to ram to many seats into them to win the DfT based on DfT's seat requirements in the tender.
Being more realistic with full 2+2 would help.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Plenty of 720s available there is no need for new stock.
The main problems is that the Abellio bid team tried to ram to many seats into them to win the DfT based on DfT's seat requirements in the tender.
Being more realistic with full 2+2 would help.

I agree. The 720s are nice trains - apart from the seating!

 

[hwl]

I agree. The 720s are nice trains - apart from the seating!

Also 10car 720 is nearly 7m longer than a 745 which all helps on the capacity front.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Maybe it's time for GA to expand the 745/0 fleet, but I can't see the DFT/treasury funding new stock any time soon, if only there was a way to get new stock built and paid for on a lease basis, perhaps by a private company, Starmer could even stand outside the factory for the PR shots?

Exactly this, if only someone thought of that

 

[ScotGG]

Didn't the third Norwich to London proposal utilise 720s?

Is it just a lack of trained drivers stopping 720s boosting frequencies on the line?

3 tph could also permit 2 to stop at Stratford perhaps? Stratford is only getting ever busier and the redevelopment of the area half way complete! Thousands more homes, leisure attractions and the like are on the way.

 

[dk1]

Didn't the third Norwich to London proposal utilise 720s?

Is it just a lack of trained drivers stopping 720s boosting frequencies on the line?

3 tph could also permit 2 to stop at Stratford perhaps? Stratford is only getting ever busier and the redevelopment of the area half way complete! Thousands more homes, leisure attractions and the like are on the way.

Norwich and Ipswich drivers started training on 720s but this was abandoned when the decision was taken not to proceed with 720s north of Ipswich.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 May 2025 ==

It could very easily be reversed but there is really no need.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Norwich and Ipswich drivers started training on 720s but this was abandoned when the decision was taken not to proceed with 720s north of Ipswich.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 May 2025 ==

It could very easily be reversed but there is really no need.

Extra trains south of Ipswich are required more than Norwich although there are possibilities with 3 tph to Norwich, you could have one direct to Ipswich to improve journey times.

Reality is though 720s are not really required north of Ipswich and currently not having the drivers trained means they won't turn up as a substitution for a 745

 

[RailWonderer]

Extra trains south of Ipswich are required more than Norwich although there are possibilities with 3 tph to Norwich, you could have one direct to Ipswich to improve journey times.

Reality is though 720s are not really required north of Ipswich and currently not having the drivers trained means they won't turn up as a substitution for a 745

I'm glad. Invariably as long as drivers are trained on a type of train, no matter how inappropriate the route, said train will turn up sometimes. Some of the surplus 720s should be converted to 2+2 with end seat pairs taken out for luggage racks to be added but I doubt we even see that. It's bedlam in the morning when I'm on a 720 to London on my way to Heathrow with a fairly large suitcase and the aisles are so narrow and all bays are full.

 

[The Ham]

Doing a bit of digging, the largest rolling 12 month revenue for the railways pree COVID was £10,599 million (to December 2019).

In the 12 months to December 2024 the total equals £10,985 million.

Whilst that at first glance looks good, inflation has eroded that, so actually the (in 2024 prices) the Pre COVID peak was £13,289 million compared to the latest figure of £11,092 million, so still about 83% of the pre COVID numbers.

However it was only the second quarter when the rolling 12 month total (not factoring in inflation) was higher.

It's also worth noting that the comparison isn't entirely equal as the number of km under taken by passenger vehicles was still only at 93% of the pre COVID numbers (edit this is excluding Elizabeth Line km for both pre and post COVID numbers).

 

[ScotGG]

Good thing is revenue is rising pretty well and there's plenty of scope to improve eg restoring services in busy areas, new housing around stations etc as raised by new government.

Also its good that in London TfL is no longer in deficit though struggling in certain areas (mainly buses and DLR due to new stock problems - see also SWR - and not other rail modes)

 

[Goldfish62]

Good thing is revenue is rising pretty well

There was an analysis in last month's Modern Railways showing that revenue is flat-lining, not rising.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 May 2025 ==

Also its good that in London TfL is no longer in deficit

It's only just breaking even and is well below budget projections due to flatlining passenger growth across most modes except the Elizabeth line.

 

[Annetts key]

I'm not that surprised that passenger figures are flat-lining given that the economy is also kinda flat-lining as well.

 

[dk1]

I'm not that surprised that passenger figures are flat-lining given that the economy is also kinda flat-lining as well.

Very true. The railways have in history closely followed the economy. Its surprising that they are doing as well as they are so to me this is a very positive sign.

 

[absolutelymilk]

The latest ORR passenger rail usage stats are out, with a 7% increase in both passenger journeys and passenger km travelled.
ORR passenger rail usage

Key results​

• There were 1,730 million journeys made in the latest year (April 2024 to March 2025). This is a 7% increase on the 1,610 million journeys made in the previous year (April 2023 to March 2024).
• Total passenger revenue was £11.5 billion in the latest year. This is an 8% increase on the previous year, adjusting for inflation.
• There was a total of 64.6 billion passenger kilometres travelled in the latest year. This is up 7% compared with the previous year.

 

[Trainbike46]

The latest ORR passenger rail usage stats are out, with a 7% increase in both passenger journeys and passenger km travelled.
ORR passenger rail usage

That's great news!

I'm assuming this excludes Elizabeth Line journeys? EDIT: looking at the methodology Elizabeth line journeys are included.

 

[Djgr]

The latest ORR passenger rail usage stats are out, with a 7% increase in both passenger journeys and passenger km travelled.
ORR passenger rail usage

All appear up except London Overground and Heathrow Express. The latter is down to around 67% of its peak.

 

[Bletchleyite]

All appear up except London Overground and Heathrow Express. The latter is down to around 67% of its peak.

I suspect the Lizzie is the reason for that.

 

[Trainbike46]

All appear up except London Overground and Heathrow Express. The latter is down to around 67% of its peak.

It looks like Caledonian Sleeper and Grand Central are also down.

In Passenger-KM northern is down as well

Drops in Passenger-km compared to previous year:
London Overground -0.4%
Northern Trains -2%
Caledonian Sleeper -3%
Grand Central -4%
Heathrow Express -6%

Does anyone know why these operators might have reduced passenger numbers?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Friday at 12:16 ==

I suspect the Lizzie is the reason for that.

For the Heathrow Express, almost certainly. The difference at London Overground is very slight, but why would Lizzie cause that to go down, they don't really compete

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would say 0.4% is noise level. Sub 0.5% plus or minus isn't significant.

2% could be Northern's Sunday trials and tribulations?

CS I have no idea. GC similarly, they're just as awful as ever.

HEx is almost certainly switching to the Lizzie, which if you're going anywhere other than the immediate area around Paddington is going to be both quicker and cheaper. This is likely to be gradual as people discover the benefits of switching compared to what they did by habit before.

 

[Trainbike46]

I would say 0.4% is noise level. Sub 0.5% plus or minus isn't significant.

Agreed

2% could be Northern's Sunday trials and tribulations?

Maybe? I also note TPE is up 18%, so maybe TPE improvements have caused people to switch from Northern to TPE for routes were both are available.

HEx is almost certainly switching to the Lizzie, which if you're going anywhere other than the immediate area around Paddington is going to be both quicker and cheaper. This is likely to be gradual as people discover the benefits of switching compared to what they did by habit before.

Agreed. Elizabeth line had 10% growth on passenger numbers more than 20x those of HEx (2.38bn v 0.11bn passenger-km)

 

[The exile]

2% could be Northern's Sunday trials and tribulations?

Coupled with TPE recovering somewhat?