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Israel attacks Iran - What will be the wider implications?

Cowley

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It feels like this needs its own thread.

I guess we all had a feeling that this could well happen, there’s likely to be all kinds of consequences from this attack though.

Israel launched strikes across Iran on Friday, saying they targeted the "heart" of Iran's nuclear programme.
The strikes killed Hossein Salami, chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards - a powerful branch of the country's armed forces - other senior military figures and nuclear scientists, Iranian state media reported.
Civilians, including children, were also among those killed, state media reported.
The BBC is not able to independently verify these reports.
The Israeli military said Iran launched a counter-attack of more than 100 drones, with Israeli media reporting all the drones were intercepted. A state of emergency was declared in Israel.
The US said it was not involved in the strikes. Multiple strikes were reported, including on Iran's main nuclear enrichment facility.
 
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brad465

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Someone elsewhere pointed out how weakness towards Russia has contributed to this situation. If treaties, such as the Budapest Memorandum and/or NATO Article 5 are not honoured, other countries will resort to other means to protect themselves and/or be emboldened to attack. One such consequence is nuclear proliferation. In other words, Trump's ill-thought out approach to avoiding war is resulting in the exact opposite.
 

nw1

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It's time we washed our hands of the current Israeli government to be quite honest.

We should break off diplomatic relations while the current extreme-right government is in power. Even for those people that don't care about Gaza or peace in the Middle East, friendly relations with Netanyahu and Likud is a liability to British citizens - this puts ourselves at risk of terrorist reprisals.

The West needs to impose severe sanctions on the Israeli state to show that we do not approve of this act of belligerent violence.

We should absolutely not listen to the nonsense that harsh criticism of the Israeli govermment is automatic anti-semitism, which seems to be the motivation behind the West's weak response to wrongdoing perpetrated by them. Good relations with Netanyahu and Likud will do the West no favours at all.

The sooner Netanyahu gets arrested for war crimes, the better, to be quite honest. He is a clear enemy of peace.
 
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brad465

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It's time we washed our hands of the current Israeli government to be quite honest.

We should break off diplomatic relations while the current extreme-right government is in power. Even for those people that don't care about Gaza or peace in the Middle East, friendly relations with Netanyahu and Likud is a liability to British citizens - this puts ourselves at risk of terrorist reprisals.

The West needs to impose severe sanctions on the Israeli state to show that we do not approve of this act of belligerent violence.

We should absolutely not listen to the nonsense that harsh criticism of the Israeli govermment is automatic anti-semitism, which seems to be the motivation behind the West's weak response to wrongdoing perpetrated by them. Good relations with Netanyahu and Likud will do the West no favours at all.

The sooner Netanyahu gets arrested for war crimes, the better, to be quite honest. He is a clear enemy of peace.
What also drives me up the wall is seeing how the UK and US will more than happily support Israeli forces defending attacks from Iran (even if they are in response to Israeli provocations), but won't do the same for Ukraine when it comes to Russian strikes. We've seen time and again Russia's nuclear threats are empty, so what harm would at least providing a no-fly zone do?
 

Tetchytyke

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Someone elsewhere pointed out how weakness towards Russia has contributed to this situation.
I don't think Russia has anything to do with it.

Israel has long had special dispensation from the United States to effectively do as it pleases. It has never faced any meaningful consequences for its actions. Even now, the US decided to sanction the staff of the International Criminal Court when it decided to criticise Israel. Netanyahu and his senior aides will never face the consequences of their actions.

The UK is never going to stand up to Israel. They might pout a bit and say some stern words but, when push comes to shove, they will just let Israel carry on carrying on.

What will be interesting to see is how- if at all- Russia does react.

On the one hand Russia and Israel are close allies, all the gangsters and fraudsters fled Russia as soon as the war in Ukraine started and those with any sort of Jewish ancestry fled to Israel. They've carried on with their scamming and their cyberfraud, just from Israel instead. The rest fled to the UAE. Israel and the UAE are also both right at the very centre of sanctions evasion in respect of Russia.

But on the other hand, Russia is still heavily reliant on Iranian weaponry, especially its drone capability.

FWIW I don't think Iran have the ability to offer any sort of meaningful military retaliation against Israel. Israel's military is way more advanced than Iran's and it is abundantly obvious that the Mossad have infiltrated right into the heart of Iran. A lot of Iranians would be happy to see the regime fail.

The last bit is what really worries me. If the Iranian leadership know they can't retaliate militarily but also feel as though they're on the brink of losing control of the country then who knows what they will do.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

friendly relations with Netanyahu and Likud is a liability to British citizens - this puts ourselves at risk of terrorist reprisals.
That's my worry too.

As I've said in my last post, also add into the mix the fact that the Iranians simply don't have the capacity to retaliate through traditional military means. If they don't have the military they may resort to more guerilla-style tactics, suicide bombers and the like.

I'm not sure I'd be travelling to Cyprus or Egypt any time soon.
 

PudseyBearHST

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If you take out nentanyahu, nentanyahu’s regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region.
 

Russel

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Wouldn't it be great if the Iranian people used this as a reason to rise up against their Government and took their country back?
 

Carlisle

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Wouldn't it be great if the Iranian people used this as a reason to rise up against their Government and took their country back?
It was widely reported in various media back in 2022 that the killing of ‘Marsha Amini’ by the Authorities could lead to a popular uprising. However as long as Dictators are willing & able to order the shooting of protesters the chances of ultimate success must surely be tiny.
 
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Broucek

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Wouldn't it be great if the Iranian people used this as a reason to rise up against their Government and took their country back?
Whatever one thinks of the Israeli government, there can't be many people who are fans of the Iranian government, surely?
 

Tetchytyke

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Wouldn't it be great if the Iranian people used this as a reason to rise up against their Government and took their country back?
Possibly, possibly not. If the Iranian regime collapses, who knows what would follow. It certainly wasn't all sweetness and light in Iraq and Libya and it's not looking a huge deal better in Syria...

Add in the fact that facing an external threat can sometimes galvanise people around a failing regime.

Whatever one thinks of the Israeli government, there can't be many people who are fans of the Iranian government, surely?
I don't think any of us will shed a tear should the Iranian regime collapse.

However I suspect the Iranian government won't be the ones suffering if Israel and Iran go to war, just as it isn't the Hamas top brass who are suffering in Gaza and just as it isn't the Hezbollah top brass who are suffering in Lebanon.
 

GusB

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Whatever one thinks of the Israeli government, there can't be many people who are fans of the Iranian government, surely?
I see both governments as being as bad as eachother. On one hand you have Israel wailing about its right to self-defence against an existential threat, while actually being the biggest existential threat to other nations in the region. The ordinary people of both Iran and Israel would benefit from regime change.
 

Russel

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Whatever one thinks of the Israeli government, there can't be many people who are fans of the Iranian government, surely?

Can't be many people who think letting the Iranian regime have nuclear weapons is a good idea either...

As much as I dislike the Israeli Government, I do think they are doing the world a favour here.
 

Trackman

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Can't be many people who think letting the Iranian regime have nuclear weapons is a good idea either...

As much as I dislike the Israeli Government, I do think they are doing the world a favour here.
On the other hand, it may make Iran more determined to have nukes after what has happened today.
 

Sorcerer

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Israel really isn't doing itself nor the region any favours right now. Saudi Arabia and Iran were already starting to warm up to each other partially because of Israel's actions in Gaza, and this will only draw them closer. Even the UAE who were the first to start normalising relations condemn these actions along with other parts of the Arab World who are otherwise friendly with the West. Considering how many terrorist attacks throughout history have partially if not wholly been motivated by Western support of Israel, including 9/11, it is wise of the UK to not support these actions.

Can't be many people who think letting the Iranian regime have nuclear weapons is a good idea either...
On the other hand, it may make Iran more determined to have nukes after what has happened today.
Iran will most likely still attempt to pursue nuclear weapons because, much like with Russia, China and North Korea, it is the only way for them to actually level the playing field against the United States who have a heavy presence in the region with multiple military bases on the Arabian Peninsula and aren't exactly on the friendliest of terms with. Indeed continued US support of Israel over the years will only make this tense relationship even worse because Iran are now on the receiving end of a military strike from said nation.
 

Russel

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On the other hand, it may make Iran more determined to have nukes after what has happened today.

What other solutions was there?

Diplomacy hasn't worked.

We've all spent 3 years saying that appeasing Putin isn't th answer.
 

D1511

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It's time we washed our hands of the current Israeli government to be quite honest.

We should break off diplomatic relations while the current extreme-right government is in power. Even for those people that don't care about Gaza or peace in the Middle East, friendly relations with Netanyahu and Likud is a liability to British citizens - this puts ourselves at risk of terrorist reprisals.

The West needs to impose severe sanctions on the Israeli state to show that we do not approve of this act of belligerent violence.

We should absolutely not listen to the nonsense that harsh criticism of the Israeli govermment is automatic anti-semitism, which seems to be the motivation behind the West's weak response to wrongdoing perpetrated by them. Good relations with Netanyahu and Likud will do the West no favours at all.

The sooner Netanyahu gets arrested for war crimes, the better, to be quite honest. He is a clear enemy of peace.
This. Absolutely.
 

Tetchytyke

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What other solutions was there?

Diplomacy hasn't worked.
Diplomacy was working, mostly, until Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018.

Nuclear is the ultimate deterrent, and I think all this has proven to the Iranian leadership is that nothing less than the ultimate deterrent will dissuade Israeli aggression.

Iran will most likely still attempt to pursue nuclear weapons because, much like with Russia, China and North Korea, it is the only way for them to actually level the playing field against the United States
Absolutely. The fact North Korea has nuclear, and is backed (at least in part) by China who also have nuclear, is why that country hasn't been invaded.

You don't bomb your way to peace. I'm sure Israel will have done a lot of damage to the Iranian nuclear programme, far more than Iran will ever care to admit, but they've just proven to the Iranian leadership exactly why they need a nuclear deterrent.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

appeasing rogue regimes is not usually a recipe for lasting peace
Sadly we've been appeasing Israel, which is a nation born out of terrorism and which has repeatedly elected terrorists as leaders, since 1947.

And I don't say that lightly. Likud, Netanyahu's party, was founded by Menachem Begin. Begin, who later became Prime Minister of Israel in 1977 and was the instigator of the 1982 war with Lebanon, was the mastermind behind the King David Hotel bombing in 1946 which killed almost 100 people.
 
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PeterC

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I see both governments as being as bad as eachother. On one hand you have Israel wailing about its right to self-defence against an existential threat, while actually being the biggest existential threat to other nations in the region. The ordinary people of both Iran and Israel would benefit from regime change.
Sadly there comes a time when you may have to choose between Hitler and Stalin.
 

DarloRich

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Iran will respond with a massive barrage of missiles and drones

The question is where and what they are targeted at. Last time it was all done for domestic consumption and did no real damage.

This time......

What happens after is a big unknown
 

GWRtom

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2 waves of ballistic missiles launched within the last hour or so.

1/2 hits in Tel Aviv from 1st wave. 2nd wave incoming now.
 

DustyBin

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On the other hand, it may make Iran more determined to have nukes after what has happened today.

I think they have missed the (last) boat in this regard to be honest.

The realpolitik of this situation is that an extremely unpleasant but Western-friendly regime is attacking an even more unpleasant regime that is actively supporting a war against the West. We’re not going to turn our backs completely on Israel for this reason alone, despite the situation in Gaza.

There’s also of course the frankly terrifying prospect of Iran becoming a nuclear power in the near future…
 

Trackman

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Iran will respond with a massive barrage of missiles and drones

The question is where and what they are targeted at. Last time it was all done for domestic consumption and did no real damage.

This time......

What happens after is a big unknown
Could be tit-for-tat and then settle down.
A major worry is the Persian Gulf, if Iran start sinking tankers and targeting oil installations - it will affect everyone.
 

AlterEgo

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Wouldn't it be great if the Iranian people used this as a reason to rise up against their Government and took their country back?
It would be great if both regimes were gone to be honest. But you feel Iran is running on fumes at the moment.
 

Bevan Price

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I feel sorry for the ordinary populations of both Israel & Iran. Both have very nasty governments that don't seem to consider the long term consequences of their actions. Whilst Israel is trying to destroy the current Hamas, it is probably helping to recruit for its inevitable successor(s)...

And as for Iran, when they got rid of the Shah, it was "out of the frying pan into a seemingly unending hellfire". As others comment, the current regime is likely to be more determined to try and get nuclear weapons - a frightening thought given the way they have supported terrorist organisations. .
 

brad465

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Iran now threatening to attack the bases of anyone of who helps Israel defend their attacks, though it appears the UK has not yet got involved:


Iran warns it will target UK, US and France bases in region if they defend Israel

Iran has warned the United States, United Kingdom and France not to help Israel stop Tehran's retaliatory strikes, according to Reuters news agency citing Iranian state media.

Reports say that Tehran would target military bases and ships located in the region if the three countries provide support to Israel.


UK hasn't yet contributed to efforts to defend Israel from Iranian strikes

In the last hour or so, Iranian state media has reported that Iran has warned the UK not to help Israel stop its strikes on the country.

They say that Iran will target ships and bases belonging to the UK, US and France, if they defend Israel against Iranian drones or missiles.

Downing Street aren’t responding to those comments, but as of this morning it’s understood the UK has not taken part in any military action, including efforts to defend Israel against those strikes.

I was told yesterday that there’d been no request from Israel to the UK for that type of assistance.

Government sources haven’t been confirming this morning whether that’s still the case.

When Iran has targeted Israel with drones in the past, the UK has sent RAF Typhoon jets from Cyprus to shoot them down.
 

Russel

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Iran now threatening to attack the bases of anyone of who helps Israel defend their attacks, though it appears the UK has not yet got involved:


That'll end well for them.

Why fight one country when you can fight multiple...
 
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brad465

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As much as I'd love to see the Iranian regime fall, I hope there are plans for handling the aftermath among several nations. Saddam Hussein's government fell within weeks of the Iraq invasion, but hardly anyone who publicly backed it at the time admits it now having seen the chaos that followed. Similar with Libya.
 

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