Israel attacks Iran - What will be the wider implications?

[AlterEgo]

Which is why bringing the shah back to power will bring many benefits. Given that during the shah's rule, Iran was prosperous economically and a US ally. With the four major middle east powers(Iseral, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia) being US allies. Peace can finally be brought to the region.

The Shah is not coming back. Take out the Islamofascists running Iran and you'll get another Islamist; they hold all the power and capture all the institutions.

 

[Russel]

We should stay out of it. It's nothing to do with us. Iran and Israel have been at each other's throats for my entire life. The Middle East in general as a region has had a war going on somewhere since before the birth of Christ. It's always been a troubled part of the world. Look at what happened with Iraq. We deposed a tyrant but brought about the rise of Islamic State and endless civil wars that led to even more people getting killed than the tyrant ever did. By deposing the Iranian regime we could usher in an even worse regime.

If it wasn't for us being reliant on the Middle East for oil, I'd be happy for the West to just cut them off completely and let the region fight it out amongst themselves.

 

[DustyBin]

On the other hand, even if it may be difficult to physically destroy it, who would want to work in it knowing it is a target?

Fair point, although I’m sure the Iranian regime could come up with some, shall we say, “incentives”.

Using B2s in any sort of contested airspace would be a massive risk. They’d need an aerial armada of support to make sure. Other than the low radar observability B2s may as well be 737s. Losing any aircraft would be hugely embarrassing to the US.

Then there’s the questions raised over whether the bombs can actually do the job. Nearly 100m of rock and concrete would require multiple hits it seems. A ground assault would seem the only reliable way of disabling/destroying the facility. It sounds bonkers but the IDF may be up for it.

Significant that Iran are also very aware of the likely target by air and land and will be waiting. I’d be amazed if they don’t have some sort of special welcome organised.

Crazy times.

Yes, I posted something similar subsequent to the post you quoted.

Crazy times indeed.

Netanyahu is a criminal launching an unprovoked attack on Iran yet there not sanctioned by the UN or any G7 country. What message is this sending to other bully nations around the world. Before we know it the be will be flare ups all over the place which isn't good for the global economy nor will it do anything to reduce the number of displaced people across the planet.

It’s really not though is it.

With respect, I think a few posters are performing some fairly impressive mental gymnastics trying to portray the Iranian regime as some kind of victim when it absolutely isn’t. Netanyahu is a nasty piece of work, but he’s doing everyone a favour here (except Putin) whether we like to admit it or not.

I completely agree with you in regard to global instability, we’re not in a good place and the last thing the world needs is another war. The alternative however is probably far worse on this occasion.

 

[nw1]

Unprovoked... Really?

Iran have been funding the proxies that have been attacking Israel for years.

So that excuses bombing Tehran and killing civilians, and striking terror into far more?

What good will it do?
More terrorist attacks against the West, unless the West unambiguously condemn the actions of Israel.

More instability in the Middle East. More resentment of Israel by other countries in the region.

Hot-headed militarist hawks just don't think. They allow their anger to get the better of them, and don't think through the consequences. They don't appear to make the connection that killing of civilians will cause radicalisation.

In the words of John Lennon - a far greater human being than Trump or Netanyahu can ever hope to be - "give peace a chance".

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

I think removal of the Iranian revolutionary regime is absolutely the right objective for the West (preferably without Israel) but assassination is not the way to do it.

I also don’t think Iran would be as susceptible to Islamic extremism as (say) Afghanistan or Iraq - firstly the population is predominantly Shia which doesn’t predispose their culture towards extreme Salafism, so for example I wouldn’t expect Al Qaeda or ISIS to easily assume power. There is reportedly a strong popular lean towards a moderate form of government - maybe even democracy.

When Saddam Hussein was removed by the US invasion of Iraq, the fundamental strategic error was to exclude anyone in any way associated with the regime in the rebuilding of the country. I imagine there would be a lot of people similarly ‘compromised’ in Iran but one would hope that the same fatal mistake would not be made twice.

 

[Cloud Strife]

There also seems to be a question mark over whether the MOP (Massive Ordinance Penetrator) can successfully destroy the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant as it’s located so deep inside a mountain. I’m speculating here, but if it can’t someone will need to put boots on the ground in order to secure the site and “decommission” it. I imagine that’s going to require a lot of planning and preparation as it’s very risky.

Yes, I suspect that the preferable option is simply to keep destroying Iran's military capabilities and hope that Iran's leadership comes to the table with a proposal to eliminate all their nuclear facilities. I guess a lot depends on just how good Israel's intelligence is: if they can keep ruthlessly taking out military leaders with precision attacks, then it might just persuade the political leaders to surrender.

It should be said that if Iran indeed are weak, that makes Netanyahu look like a bully - and his actions will do the western world no favours whatsoever.

I actually don't think Iran were weak before the conflict started, it's just that Israel were so, so much better than them. I don't think Iran quite realised or understood just how good the Israelis are, nor did they learn from the decapitation of Hezbollah that Israel are a formidable opponent. They might have been led into a false sense of security because of Israel struggling to win in Gaza.

In the words of John Lennon - a far greater human being than Trump or Netanyahu can ever hope to be - "give peace a chance".

I think the problem always goes back to: how can we stop both Israel and the Middle East nations from feuding? It's clear that the oil rich ones are quite happy to coexist with Israel without drama, and Egypt seems to have an understanding with Israel that their mutual security depends on their cooperation, but what about the others? Could Iran be persuaded to go down the path of Saudi Arabia as a Western ally in exchange for little/no criticism of how they conduct their internal affairs?

 

[Annetts key]

It should be said that if Iran indeed are weak, that makes Netanyahu look like a bully - and his actions will do the western world no favours whatsoever.

Netanyahu is a criminal launching an unprovoked attack on Iran yet there not sanctioned by the UN or any G7 country. What message is this sending to other bully nations around the world. Before we know it the be will be flare ups all over the place which isn't good for the global economy nor will it do anything to reduce the number of displaced people across the planet.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Netanyahu is a bully, a criminal and a warmonger. He doesn’t want peace. He wants a war or conflict. Possibly to stay in government and distract from his own problems. But more likely because he hates Palestinians and of course the Iranian government. He and most of his government don't care whatsoever about civilian casualties (not even Israelis). But of course if an Israeli is injured by a Palestinian or an Iranian or any of the other groups in the area that are apparently linked to wanting to "destroy" Israel, then he and his government make a really big deal out of it.

And Netanyahu ignores what the other governments of the world say to him if it suits his agenda. Indeed, in the U.S.A. the Israelis are involved with the American politics.

Further, the Israeli form of so called democracy is only ranked 31 in the world, worse than the outdated and flawed U.S.A. system. As such, Israel is considered to be a flawed democracy.

If the world wants something resembling peace in the Middle East, Netanyahu and his awful government need replacing.

After the Iranian strike on a hospital in Israel (claimed by Iran to have been intended hit an adjacent military installation) the Israeli Defence Minister has called for the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khameini, stating that he ‘should cease to exist.’

Iran's leader 'cannot continue to exist', Israeli defence minister says after hospital strike - live updates

Israel Katz speaks to reporters after Soroka hospital was damaged by a strike which Iran says was aimed at a nearby military site.

www.bbc.co.uk

There is an interesting comparison to be drawn between this action and the Israeli response, and the systematic targeting of Palestinian hospital installations in Gaza on various occasions over the preceding year or so, with corresponding Israeli justifications about targeting adjacent military sites. Presumably Netanyahu should also ‘cease to exist’!

Yes, no surprise that Israel cries out about one of their hospitals being hit and ignoring that they have hit every single hospital in the Gaza strip. Just like Russia does. Exactly the same play book.

With respect, I think a few posters are performing some fairly impressive mental gymnastics trying to portray the Iranian regime as some kind of victim when it absolutely isn’t. Netanyahu is a nasty piece of work, but he’s doing everyone a favour here (except Putin) whether we like to admit it or not.

I completely agree with you in regard to global instability, we’re not in a good place and the last thing the world needs is another war. The alternative however is probably far worse on this occasion.

Yes, the Iranian government and Ayatollah Ali Khameini are nasty and the would would be a far better place if they were not in power, even better if they were held accountable (next to Netanyahu and his government) in the international court.

But by starting/restarting a war against Iran, Netanyahu is most definitely not doing everyone a favour. Trump has not helped either. In his first term, it looked like it was possible to use negotiation with Iran to keep their Nuclear ambitions under control. But trying that again does not suit Netanyahu's agenda. And Trump is a fool.

Israel has been telling everyone that Iran will have Nuclear weapons soon for how many years. Having listened to some Israeli government officials, all I got from them was that if you could see their lips moving, they were lying. Just as bad if not worse than the Russians...

So that excuses bombing Tehran and killing civilians, and striking terror into far more?

What good will it do?
More terrorist attacks against the West, unless the West unambiguously condemn the actions of Israel.

More instability in the Middle East. More resentment of Israel by other countries in the region.

Hot-headed militarist hawks just don't think. They allow their anger to get the better of them, and don't think through the consequences. They don't appear to make the connection that killing of civilians will cause radicalisation.

In the words of John Lennon - a far greater human being than Trump or Netanyahu can ever hope to be - "give peace a chance".

I think the U.K. should stay out of any military action. Provide absolutely no support for the U.S. military and not let the U.S.A. use any of our airfields, or any other territory under our control (just like the U.S.A. have been bloody minded with supporting Ukraine and the nasty way that Trump and his government have treated us and our European friends).

And the U.K. government should strongly object to the military action that Israel is currently undertaking in Iran and in the Gaza strip. As well as telling Israel to remove all their forces from the Gaza strip, from other Palestinian lands and not to attack Iran.

And our government should also strongly object to the military action that Iran is currently undertaking. And tell them not to attack Israel.

Iran is already under some sanctions. If the Israelis and or Iranians ignore us, then extreme sanctions should be imposed on them, with us getting support from any other countries that are willing to help. Plus our government along with the governments of the other countries that are willing to help need to join together and read the riot act to Trump.

 

[Belperpete]

I think the problem always goes back to: how can we stop both Israel and the Middle East nations from feuding? It's clear that the oil rich ones are quite happy to coexist with Israel without drama, and Egypt seems to have an understanding with Israel that their mutual security depends on their cooperation, but what about the others? Could Iran be persuaded to go down the path of Saudi Arabia as a Western ally in exchange for little/no criticism of how they conduct their internal affairs?

Most of the Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian attacks are in support of the Palestinians, so giving the Palestinians their own state would dampen the fire a lot. There would still be extremists who believe that Israel should be wiped off the map, or who believe that Israel has a god-given right to settle all of Gaza and the West Bank, but they would then hopefully be in a minority.

And by a Palestinian state, I do not mean a glorified prison camp ruled by Israel, which is all they have had to date.

 

[JamesT]

I think the problem always goes back to: how can we stop both Israel and the Middle East nations from feuding? It's clear that the oil rich ones are quite happy to coexist with Israel without drama, and Egypt seems to have an understanding with Israel that their mutual security depends on their cooperation, but what about the others? Could Iran be persuaded to go down the path of Saudi Arabia as a Western ally in exchange for little/no criticism of how they conduct their internal affairs?

Unfortunately the coexistence of Israel with some Arab countries is more on the basis that the enemy of my enemy is just about my friend. The Sunni’s led by Saudi Arabia versus the Shi’ites led by Iran. Many of the conflicts in that region are proxy wars between the two.
Iran allying with the Great Satan? That would definitely need a change of regime.

 

[Annetts key]

Most of the Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian attacks are in support of the Palestinians, so giving the Palestinians their own state would dampen the fire a lot. There would still be extremists who believe that Israel should be wiped off the map, or who believe that Israel has a god-given right to settle all of Gaza and the West Bank, but they would then hopefully be in a minority.

And by a Palestinian state, I do not mean a glorified prison camp ruled by Israel, which is all they have had to date.

I agree.

 

[DustyBin]

Yes, the Iranian government and Ayatollah Ali Khameini are nasty and the would would be a far better place if they were not in power, even better if they were held accountable (next to Netanyahu and his government) in the international court.

But by starting/restarting a war against Iran, Netanyahu is most definitely not doing everyone a favour. Trump has not helped either. In his first term, it looked like it was possible to use negotiation with Iran to keep their Nuclear ambitions under control. But trying that again does not suit Netanyahu's agenda. And Trump is a fool.

Israel has been telling everyone that Iran will have Nuclear weapons soon for how many years. Having listened to some Israeli government officials, all I got from them was that if you could see their lips moving, they were lying. Just as bad if not worse than the Russians...

You’re right, the Israelis have been accusing Iran of trying to produce a nuclear weapon for years, and of course we should be mindful of the lies Tony Blair fed us regarding Iraq. However, when Iran refuses to allow inspectors into its sites and the likes of Russia and China express concern, one could be forgiven for suspecting they’re up to no good.

 

[brad465]

Yes, the Iranian government and Ayatollah Ali Khameini are nasty and the would would be a far better place if they were not in power, even better if they were held accountable (next to Netanyahu and his government) in the international court.

But by starting/restarting a war against Iran, Netanyahu is most definitely not doing everyone a favour. Trump has not helped either. In his first term, it looked like it was possible to use negotiation with Iran to keep their Nuclear ambitions under control. But trying that again does not suit Netanyahu's agenda. And Trump is a fool.

Israel has been telling everyone that Iran will have Nuclear weapons soon for how many years. Having listened to some Israeli government officials, all I got from them was that if you could see their lips moving, they were lying. Just as bad if not worse than the Russians...

Trump trashing the nuclear deal has gone a long way towards the current situation. The belief seems to be the only reason he abandoned it was because Obama signed it (arguably his biggest foreign policy success) and Trump couldn't stand for that. This is one of the big flaws in having a) one party with majority control and b) an Executive with too much control, it's very easy for policy to be trashed by a simple signature at one person's will.

 

[Belperpete]

Trump trashing the nuclear deal has gone a long way towards the current situation. The belief seems to be the only reason he abandoned it was because Obama signed it (arguably his biggest foreign policy success) and Trump couldn't stand for that. This is one of the big flaws in having a) one party with majority control and b) an Executive with too much control, it's very easy for policy to be trashed by a simple signature at one person's will.

I agree that Trump trashing the deal in his first term is a major contributor to the current situation. But Israel was dead set against that deal, believing that Iran should have no nuclear capability whatsoever. The US therefore was very reluctant to sign up in the first place, and it wasn't just Trump who wanted it scrapped. The big problem was that he never put any effort into negotiating a replacement.

If the Iranians had just carried on complying, they would have been on the back foot when it came to negotiating a new deal. They would inevitably have to give something up in order to get a new deal. Which is at least part of the reason they have been going further with nuclear enrichment than that deal allowed, so that they had something to compromise on. What they obviously didn't allow for was Netanyahu deciding to attack. Netanyahu wouldn't want to negotiate, as it would almost inevitably have led to an agreement that Iran could continue it's civil nuclear power programme, in some form. Netanyahu bas always been dead set against Iran having any nuclear capability whatsoever, hence his decision to attack rather than run the risk of the US making a deal.

Trump has been blind sided. Whatever he does now, he risks alienating one or other part of his core support. He is currently playing for time, to see how things pan out, and in the hope that the Iranians decide to give way in the face of the threat of the US joining in.

The trouble is that I suspect things are only going to get worse in the next two weeks, not better. The Iranians were already on their way to the negotiating table before Israel attacked, I doubt that they will be willing to have their hand bitten off a second time. From their perspective, better to keep counter attacking as long as Israel keeps attacking, rather than just sit there and take whatever Israel throws at them. The more hospitals the Iranians "accidentally" hit, the more pressure Netanyahu will come under from his own people to stop. My bet would be on Netanyahu buckling to public pressure before the Iranian leadership does, but it could be a close call.

 

[Hamma52]

One implication is the UKFO is now recommending against all travel to Israel.
Not even political affiliation can coat over the reality of the situation in the middle east at the moment.

[The image above contains an image coming from the UK Foreign Office, depicting a map of Israel. The entire map of the country is shaded red, which reflects the government's advice that you should not travel to any part of Israel at this present time]

 

[Russel]

Witnessed a protest in Central London today in SUPPORT of Iran, unbelievable...

People carrying placards with the Ayotollahs face with the caption "Be on the right side of history", I genuinely don't know where to begin... What is worse is they found their way on to the concourse at Waterloo!

 

[brad465]

Witnessed a protest in Central London today in SUPPORT of Iran, unbelievable...

People carrying placards with the Ayotollahs face with the caption "Be on the right side of history", I genuinely don't know where to begin... What is worse is they found their way on to the concourse at Waterloo!

They have no critical thinking skills and are extremely tribal. They hate Israel and the US so much they will side with whoever is their enemy, no matter how bad that enemy is. The reverse also exists, they loathe all of Israel's enemies because of their blind allegiance. Anyone who puts tribalism aside and goes on principles will find plenty of faults in both sides and apply history and logic to find the right solutions.

 

[Russel]

They have no critical thinking skills and are extremely tribal. They hate Israel and the US so much they will side with whoever is their enemy, no matter how bad that enemy is. The reverse also exists, they loathe all of Israel's enemies because of their blind allegiance. Anyone who puts tribalism aside and goes on principles will find plenty of faults in both sides and apply history and logic to find the right solutions.

Noticed a lot of middle class looking British taking part too, who probably couldn't point to Iran on a map...

There was people waving Pride flags too, do these people actually know what happens to LGBTQ+ people in Iran?

 

[43096]

Noticed a lot of middle class looking British taking part too, who probably couldn't point to Iran on a map...

There was people waving Pride flags too, do these people actually know what happens to LGBTQ+ people in Iran?

So the usual rent-a-mob that such events always attract. Just ignore (or laugh at).

 

[dangie]

Witnessed a protest in Central London today in SUPPORT of Iran, unbelievable...

These are probably the same who protest against HS2, a tunnel under Stonehenge, [any other protest] , they are just serial protestors. Most haven’t clue what they are actually protesting against.

Note: I speak from experience here. Back in the late 1960’s I joined a protest in Central London, supposedly led by John Lennon & Yoko Ono. What the hell it was about, I hadn’t a clue. Just seemed to be a jolly good jape

 

[Russel]

So the usual rent-a-mob that such events always attract. Just ignore (or laugh at).

These are probably the same who protest against HS2, a tunnel under Stonehenge, [any other protest] , they are just serial protestors. Most haven’t clue what they are actually protesting against.

All good points, a good proportion of attendees were probably just jumping on the band waggon.

 

[baz962]

Apparently, the US has bombed Iran.

Trump says US has bombed Fordo nuclear plant in attack on Iran

Earlier, Iran's foreign minister warned against US involvement in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran saying it would be "very very dangerous".

www.bbc.co.uk

01:22 22 June

Donald Trump has announced he will address the nation at 10pm local time (3am BST) after the US conducted strikes on three of Iran's nuclear sites.

"This is a historic moment for the United States of America, Israel, and the world," he posts on Truth Social.

He adds that "Iran must now agree to end this war".

Senior Department of Defense officials also confirmed that the GBU-57A Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a "bunker buster" bomb, was used in the attack, with two being deployed for each of the nuclear targets.

As we have reported, the three sites targeted by the US tonight were Fordo, Natanz and Esfahan.

Trump to address the nation.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Apparently the US has bombed Iran.

Trump says US has bombed Fordo nuclear plant in attack on Iran

Earlier, Iran's foreign minister warned against US involvement in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran saying it would be "very very dangerous".

www.bbc.co.uk

Trump to address the nation.

I guess he has given up on his Nobel Peace Prize. Will it make a difference to his approach to the war in Ukraine?

 

[nw1]

I guess he has given up on his Nobel Peace Prize. Will it make a difference to his approach to the war in Ukraine?

Utter idiot.

Trump needs to be immediately dismissed as President and sent to the Hague to stand trial for war crimes.

That vacuous, pea-brained, moronic imbecile Trump is the real menace to the world. As are all those brainless sycophants who support him.

He needs to be removed internally, within the US. The men in grey suits within the GOP need to realise he is a menace to the world and most of all, his own country, and remove him from power immediately. And the population of the US need to come out in large and disruptive repeated protests.

 

[philosopher]

I guess he has given up on his Nobel Peace Prize. Will it make a difference to his approach to the war in Ukraine?

From what I gather most of his MAGA base really do not like the US getting involved in foreign conflicts, so I think Trump will lose support as a result of this.

 

[nw1]

From what I gather most of his MAGA base really do not like the US getting involved in foreign conflicts, so I think Trump will lose support as a result of this.

He doesn't even deserve 1% support. What does he want, terrorist attacks against the US?

I honestly think that he is unsuitable from an intellectual view to be the US President, never mind anything else.

The man is an imbecile. He is a threat to his own nation first and foremost. As are the puppets like Rubio who support him.

Make America Great Again - Dismiss Trump.

 

[simonw]

He doesn't even deserve 1% support. What does he want, terrorist attacks against the US?

I honestly think that he is unsuitable from an intellectual view to be the US President, never mind anything else.

The man is an imbecile. He is a threat to his own nation first and foremost. As are the puppets like Rubio who support him.

Make America Great Again - Dismiss Trump.

Be careful what you wish for, I don't think JD Vance would be better, in fact given JD Vance doesn't suffer from dementia he would be worse IMHO.

 

[nw1]

Be careful what you wish for, I don't think JD Vance would be better, in fact given JD Vance doesn't suffer from dementia he would be worse IMHO.

To be honest the whole MAGA gang needs to be replaced.

There must be people, even from the GOP, who realise that getting involved in this conflict is not good for the US?

 

[dangie]

I would assume, that while only Trump could give the final decision to bomb Iran, he must have had advice from more knowledgeable others (not difficult, even the White House cat). Surely even Trump with his megalomaniac trait, can’t suddenly wake up in the morning and say ‘let’s bomb Iran’.

 

[simonw]

To be honest the whole MAGA gang needs to be replaced.

Yes, but under theIR constitution Vance would replace Trump of he was to go. Maga have atvleastv3 more years in power

 

[nw1]

Noticed a lot of middle class looking British taking part too, who probably couldn't point to Iran on a map...

There was people waving Pride flags too, do these people actually know what happens to LGBTQ+ people in Iran?

I'd like to see them protesting against Trump and Netanyahu rather than for the Ayatollah.

I don't understand why they would support the Ayatollah, but I can fully understand why they would despise the military action (of both sides) with unbridled passion.