HS2 delayed again?

[FMerrymon]

While short lengths of the GC main line and others (eg Kenilworth-Berkswell) have been reused, the land take for HS2 has been vastly larger (eg at Calvert).
In no sense could the narrow GC route have been used for a 400km/h alignment, especially with sizeable towns now being along the route.

At Calvert, its 4 tracks wide, as is everyone's favourite bat tunnel, which is passive provision for the EWR Aylesbury link.

 

[MarlowDonkey]

While short lengths of the GC main line and others (eg Kenilworth-Berkswell) have been reused, the land take for HS2 has been vastly larger (eg at Calvert).
In no sense could the narrow GC route have been used for a 400km/h alignment, especially with sizeable towns now being along the route.

I suppose that raises the question as to how much extra expense has been caused by building it to 400 km/h standards instead of say 250 km/h.

 

[grove]

Does anyone know if the delay costs have been evaluated? Contract delays, cancellations, retained employee costs, and redundancy? The point is that it will need to be funded or found from within the existing 'budget' (if it can be located).

 

[The Ham]

But 1 in 100 year events happen pretty frequently now.

Which is why there's an allowance for climate change (typically plus 40 to 45 percent).

However, that's kinda the point, by ensuring that such storms don't result in more water heading downstream - as during such storms only a fraction of the water end up in the system.

 

[SynthD]

For these purposes, the M1 corridor was always far more suitable than the Chiltern route.

Is that a forum opinion, or is it in a government document?

But I don't understand why our rail community accepts all of this so readily.

What do you mean by accepts?

HS2 should have had a dual start with both London to Birmingham/Handsacre AND Manchester to Handsacre being constructed simultaneously

That may be a fine plan on the rail side, but as soon as the Treasury starts cutting spending within a year, this plan will be stretched out over longer, more delays.

 

[NCT]

I'm not convinced Chiltern vs M1 would have made much difference to cost and opposition. The M1 route would go through built-up areas a you'd have to tunnel through Leagrave and Newport Pagnell at the very least. Hugging the M1 closely would also mean frequent viaducts or tunnels to get past motorway junctions. Anything that attempts to deviate from these urban areas without going ridiculously far east would end up crossing the Chilterns at almost just a wide a point (e.g. an alignment that stays to the west of Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard).

It seems there have been three main sources of cost increases:

1. Unit costs for the given engineering specification
2. Engineering over specification for the required design parameters - like the reported over-specified piling depths for surface sections
3. Politically induced design parameter choices, like lowering the track into unnecessary cuttings and extension of green tunnels

Factor no. 1 above is the biggest contributor to the cost escalation:

Tier ones to be reviewed after HS2 'stretched market beyond capability' | Construction News

A review into the HS2 project has found it stretched the supply market beyond its capacity and warned the UK's construction capability is not “fit for

www.constructionnews.co.uk

The [Stewart]review noted that the failure of the project’s Main Works Civils Contracts (MWCCs) to deliver reliable outcomes were “by far the most significant contributors to the overall cost increases”

This has nothing to do with Chiltern vs M1. The M1 corridor would have had its own political difficulties. I think posters suggesting Chiltern bad working class houses fair game are being a tad simplistic.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Yesterday at 14:50 ==

Do other countries complete their schemes in one go?

No, at least not recently. HS2 London - Birmingham/Handsacre is one of the biggest single phase railway projects in Europe.

LGV Atlantique was opened to Tours and Le Mans in 1990. Extensions to Bordeaux and Rennes didn't happen for another 27 years. Extensions to Toulouse and Dax are yet to begin construction.

Germany is also notorious for micro-phasing their HSLs.

Or more to the point, how many countries abandon their schemes half way through?

Quite a few, at least in terms of long delays and indefinite pauses with governments going to hot and cold.

Only a small fraction of LGV Rhin-Rhone is operational with future phases with absolutely no commitment.

The previous government pretty much pulled the plug on their entire HSR programme. While the narrative is less clear cut it seems the circumstances are not dissimilar to that of the UK - a fiscal crunch combined with some high-profile project failures and delays (Stuttgart21 and Rastatt Tunnel). It doesn't mean HSR in Germany is completely dead - it's just there's an indefinite pause in providing funding commitments to future projects. Projects like Frankfurt - Mannheim and Gelnhausen - Eisenach are as much 'abandoned' as HS2 phase 2.

===========

In hindsight HS2's original aspirations of Phase 1 by 2026 and Phase 2 by 2033 were always too ambitious, even by European standards. The Stewart Review said that HS2 is using up the entirety of Britain's construction supply chain. At HS2's infancy this problem was identified and HS2 academies were supposed to avoid this problem, but for one reason or another this didn't happen...

I don't know how you solve the problem of political support of large infrastructure projects. This isn't just a UK problem it's across the developed west. Europe clearly needs significant investments in its infrastructure, but almost invariably if a scheme is born at a time someone has just entered the workforce, by the time the scheme is fully open that said someone will be close to retirement.

 

[FMerrymon]

Does anyone know if the delay costs have been evaluated? Contract delays, cancellations, retained employee costs, and redundancy? The point is that it will need to be funded or found from within the existing 'budget' (if it can be located).

The march 2023 rescheduling supposedly added £1.9 - £3.1bn https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/hs2-update-following-cancellation-of-phase-2.pdf. It would be interesting to find out how much the cap on expenditure during the continuing high construction inflation is adding to the total cost.

 

[Nottingham59]

The march 2023 rescheduling supposedly added £1.9 - £3.1bn https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/hs2-update-following-cancellation-of-phase-2.pdf. It would be interesting to find out how much the cap on expenditure during the continuing high construction inflation is adding to the total cost.

Luckily construction inflation has been negative, meaning that prices have been falling for the past year. I don't know how HS2's bespoke cost index has fared though.

Construction building materials: commentary May 2025

www.gov.uk

 

[FMerrymon]

Luckily construction inflation has been negative, meaning that prices have been falling for the past year. I don't know how HS2's bespoke cost index has fared though.


View attachment 182415

Construction building materials: commentary May 2025

www.gov.uk

That's great to see, but this is not construction inflation, a contributor, but there are other factors as well. Can't see the OPI for may yet.

 

[Shrop]

Or more to the point, how many countries abandon their schemes half way through?

Quite a few, at least in terms of long delays and indefinite pauses with governments going to hot and cold.

Only a small fraction of LGV Rhin-Rhone is operational with future phases with absolutely no commitment.

The difference is that the schemes you've cited were simply postponed, even if for lengthy periods. Unless I'm mistaken, when Sunak abandoned HS2 it was more than just postponing it, it was to actively destroy any chances of it ever going further by seeking to have the land used for other purposes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Yesterday at 18:29 ==

Is that a forum opinion, or is it in a government document?

That's my opinion, but with plenty of justification as provided in my earlier posts.

What do you mean by accepts?

When serious rail advancements are proposed, the first instinct of those passionate about railways should (in my opinion) be to consider ways to support them. What happens all too often is that forum members are far too ready (in my opinion) to sympathise with the reasons why things cannot be done. Of course realities need to be taken into account, just not so readily.

 

[FMerrymon]

Unless I'm mistaken, when Sunak abandoned HS2 it was more than just postponing it, it was to actively destroy any chances of it ever going further by seeking to have the land used for other purposes.

You are very much not mistaken. Phase 2a remains the only section not safeguarded and was the bit they tried to sell off the land for first.

At the same time, the so called network north plan (neither specifically north, a network nor a plan) was still going to build the most expensive part of hs2 phase 2b into Manchester.

Need a lie down now...

 

[Krokodil]

I haven't forgotten the infamous DfT propaganda poster celebrating how funding previously earmarked for a capital scheme benefitting the north of the country was instead going to be used to fill London's potholes.

 

[Shrop]

I haven't forgotten the infamous DfT propaganda poster celebrating how funding previously earmarked for a capital scheme benefitting the north of the country was instead going to be used to fill London's potholes.

Yes, and HS2 Phase 2 funds were also going to be used to provide a superb alternative scheme to improve links to Sheffield and Leeds. Oh, and it was also to be used to finish the Nottingham tram system extensions to Clifton and Chilwell. The fact that this system was completed and opened years earlier, in 2015, seemed to have escaped the wisdom of our transport supremos. (Or is that a contradiction in terms?)

 

[SynthD]

When serious rail advancements are proposed, the first instinct of those passionate about railways should (in my opinion) be to consider ways to support them. What happens all too often is that forum members are far too ready (in my opinion) to sympathise with the reasons why things cannot be done. Of course realities need to be taken into account, just not so readily.

I reserve the right to judge for myself whether the proposal is an advancement. I see many that aren’t, that supporting it is not supporting the railways. For a silly example, HS2 should continue to Holyhead for a ship to Ireland. The amount of money that would cost for a low demand justifies opposing the proposal.

I’d still like to see these dreamy ideas, just not with the presumption that they are likely to be funded.

In this context though, I think there’s a room for an opinion of “it’s a shame for the railway that HS2 is delayed for political reasons, because it’s still the great idea it’s always been”.

 

[FMerrymon]

I haven't forgotten the infamous DfT propaganda poster celebrating how funding previously earmarked for a capital scheme benefitting the north of the country was instead going to be used to fill London's potholes.

"A network north project"

 

[NCT]

The difference is that the schemes you've cited were simply postponed, even if for lengthy periods. Unless I'm mistaken, when Sunak abandoned HS2 it was more than just postponing it, it was to actively destroy any chances of it ever going further by seeking to have the land used for other purposes.

Thankfully the last government never got to act out their sabotage. The Phase 2a powers remain intact and land sales were never started (this government made a point about not proceeding with the land sales). Phase 2b bill is still alive.

 

[Technologist]

One interesting point coming out of that recent review was the Colne Valley Viaduct and its costs.

Total cost for that bridge was £1.6 billion for a 3.4km long viaduct, whereas the 6.5km long Saale-Elster Viaduct in Germany built in 2015 cost €220m. I for the life of me can't see why the HS2 structure should cost 16 times as much per unit length. They even cross similar terrain and the German one goes through a protected habitat as well.

"The Saale-Elster Viaduct crosses the floodplains of the Saale and White Elster over a length of 6,465 m (21,211 ft), starting in Schkopau. The building of the longest bridge in Germany through several protected areas was particularly complex due to the Habitats Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC), a bird sanctuary and a drinking water protection zone grade III, which together required numerous applications of administrative law."

There is also another viaduct on that line comparable with Colne which is the Unstruttal viaduct which is 2.6km long. I can't find a cost for that one (edit: allegedly €40m see last link below) but as the whole 120km railway came in at €2.6bn in 2015 money I suspect it was a lot cheaper than the structure on HS2.

Unstrut Viaduct (Karsdorf, 2012) | Structurae

Unstrut Viaduct is a high-speed rail bridge, deck arch bridge, girder bridge, prestressed concrete bridge and concrete pier that was built from 2007 until 2012. The project is located in Karsdorf, Burgenlandkreis, Saxony-Anhalt, Sachsen-Anhalt, Germany, .

structurae.net

https://www.thinkproject.com/assets/unstrut-bridge/ - I do wonder if the German's price only the cost of the bridge itself and don't include tracks, signalling etc. that would need to be there whatever method of crossing was used.

Questions for the forum, how on earth have we managed to make things cost so much more than the Germans?

It's not even like in this circumstances we can claim that it's not a fair comparison and that the UK one is counting rolling stock, city tunnels and stations. In fact if we put the entire 230km length of HS2 on the Saale-Elster Viaduct then it would come to £6.6bn!

For completeness the Second Severn Crossing which is 5.1km long and crosses a Tidal Estuary cost £330m in 2010 money.

 

[Nottingham59]

Total cost for that bridge was £1.6 billion for a 3.4km long viaduct,

The main civils contract C1 for the Align Joint Venture was for both the Colne Viaduct and the Chiltern Tunnels.

HS2 C1 PACKAGE​

In July 2017 the Align joint venture was awarded the C1 package of the UK High Speed 2 line (HS2). C1 consists of 21.6km of high speed rail infrastructure. This will include a 3.37km viaduct, 16.04km twin-bored tunnel and five vent shafts handling both intervention and tunnel ventilation facilities.

HOME — ALIGN JV

alignjv.com

The original price was less than £1billion for the civils, but I expect that the final price is likely to have been around £1.6bn afterinflation (as measured by HS2;s bespoke cost index)

VolkerFitzpatrick, as part of the ALIGN joint venture with Bouygues Construction and Sir Robert McAlpine, has today been awarded the £965m Chilterns Tunnels and Colne Valley Viaduct main works civils contract by HS2. This is a key section of Phase One of the HS2 high-speed rail network between London and Birmingham.

ALIGN Joint Venture awarded key HS2 Lot | VolkerFitzpatrick

VolkerFitzpatrick, as part of the ALIGN joint venture with Bouygues Construction and Sir Robert McAlpine, has today been awarded the £965m Chilterns Tunnels and

www.volkerfitzpatrick.co.uk

 

[swt_passenger]

While short lengths of the GC main line and others (eg Kenilworth-Berkswell) have been reused, the land take for HS2 has been vastly larger (eg at Calvert).
In no sense could the narrow GC route have been used for a 400km/h alignment, especially with sizeable towns now being along the route.

There’s about 11 km in the vicinity of Calvert where you could reasonably say it’s ‘on the GC route‘, it’s in two sections of about 8 km and 3 km, between those two sections it’s “fairly near the GC”, but curve smoothing means it moves away. But that’s only in plan view, the heights and gradients are quite different, which is easy to miss on a quick comparison. As you suggest, following the general GC corridor elsewhere wouldn’t have necessarily made building a high speed alignment that much easier.

 

[Xavi]

The main civils contract C1 for the Align Joint Venture was for both the Colne Viaduct and the Chiltern Tunnels.

HOME — ALIGN JV

alignjv.com

The original price was less than £1billion for the civils, but I expect that the final price is likely to have been around £1.6bn afterinflation (as measured by HS2;s bespoke cost index)

ALIGN Joint Venture awarded key HS2 Lot | VolkerFitzpatrick

VolkerFitzpatrick, as part of the ALIGN joint venture with Bouygues Construction and Sir Robert McAlpine, has today been awarded the £965m Chilterns Tunnels and

www.volkerfitzpatrick.co.uk

That was the HS2 /DfT (aka Treasury) forecast value, not a tendered price. Treasury refused to sign off the tendered Target Cost contracts, instead insisting that the unsubstantiated forecasts embedded in Treasury budgets were used. Obviously, the contractors would only then accept cost plus contracts. The alternative was cancellation but that would have undermined the Tory levelling up policy.

 

[Nottingham59]

That was the HS2 /DfT (aka Treasury) forecast value, not a tendered price. Treasury refused to sign off the tendered Target Cost contracts, instead insisting that the unsubstantiated forecasts embedded in Treasury budgets were used.

Sure, it was a cost-plus contract, so the final price is indeterminate. But I haven't seen any reliable figures published anywhere for the outturn cost for any of the major civil contracts.

The only sources online for the outturn cost of just the viaduct that I can find online are the Daily Express and Time Out, neither of which are hugely reliable.

 

[Xavi]

Sure, it was a cost-plus contract, so the final price is indeterminate. But I haven't seen any reliable figures published anywhere for the outturn cost for any of the major civil contracts.

The only sources online for the outturn cost of just the viaduct that I can find online are the Daily Express and Time Out, neither of which are hugely reliable.

Yes, though cost-plus contracts require monthly forecasts from day one, and HS2 / DfT were instructed to publish the numbers that suited the Treasury budgets rather than the (higher) actual contractor forecasts.

 

[Nottingham59]

According to Google, the final cost for Contract C1 was going to be £1.6bn. Don't know if that's in 2019 prices or 2023 prices, as the article itself is behind a paywall.

The final cost for HS2's contract C1, which includes the Colne Valley Viaduct and Chiltern tunnels, is £1.6 billion, according to Construction News. This contract was awarded to Align JV, a joint venture between Bouygues Travaux Publics, Sir Robert McAlpine, and VolkerFitzpatrick.

A bridge so far: HS2's Colne Valley viaduct | Construction News

Crossing a busy road and several waterways, building HS2’s Colne Valley Viaduct has prompted some novel approaches. Ben Vogel finds out how the Align JV

www.constructionnews.co.uk

I bet that's where Time Out got the figure of £1.6bn for the viaduct from.