Chiltern won't want to build and open their more limited line, build up the customer base and then have to close it after a few months for extensive rebuilds to increase capacity for east-west or the Oxford rebuild thereby destroying their newly built-up customer base.
That is *exactly* OBRAGs fear - that Chiltern would prefer for all the Oxford resignalling work (which *does* inpact on the junction at the Oxford line onto the main line - the one the freight use) to be added into the closure & thus lengthen it....
The work had already gone from around 12-15 months to nearly 24 for the EWR work (which the DfT has already instructed *will* be done at the same time). With the delays on the judicial review, the resignalling (which will also be moved forward now as it needs doing *before* electrification works around Oxford can commence) - there is the distinct possibility that yes, a further increase in closure length is necessary.
The line works will also include putting up the supports for the electric wires for EWR too....
Finally, Chiltern were pushed into agreeing to confirm that at least 12 weeks (the required minimum) will be given. Of course, that is already way beyond the May TT change date. Ian East at OBRAG is correct in his blog...there is a real fear it could go over 2 years in total.
There has been talk of Chiltern starting their MYB service from Water Eaton once their works are complete, while the Oxford Resignalling works are carried out. I think that is a real possibility.
The judge has appeared already once for the review. "Right, I'll look at this" was his comment, banged his gavel & walked away. So we're still waiting for it to be reconvened. There is a lot of road-lobby money financing this through one resident in Sommertown. If he wins, be warned, the decision will definitely have ramifications elsewhere.