East Anglia fleet future cascade options

Clansman · 11 Aug 2016

I don't want to shout out unjustified suggestions but could the 360s be a contender for Scotrail? Reason I ask is that the fleet of 21 high density units would be perfect on services from Edinburgh to North Berwick/Dunbar. This would allow the 380s to go back to Ayrshire with the rest of the fleet, and would allow the 4 car 385s in future to be used on core routes around the Central Belt.

Scotrail could also do with a fleet of around 20 units to work the Cathcart Circle and Paisley Canal Lines. The refurbished fleet of 321s would certainly be more than suited to the job and would fit into Scotrail's fleet of 318s/320s well maintenance wise - the fact they are being refurbished inside out could also allow further 320s to go out for refurbishment and replace the ageing 318s in future. This would allow the 385s to be used on more suited routes as they were intended for.

As for the rest of the GA fleet I can see some 170s at least going to London Midland or Chiltern, the 387s definitely on a Thames based route and the 90s on freight duties. The Mk3s and their based EMUs I can see going to the scrap or spare along with the 156s and 153s unless Northern or Arriva are looking to acquire additional units (unlikely).

Hopefully that's realistic enough.

One thing that's certain is that the railway will look completely different all over the UK in the next few years!

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pemma · 11 Aug 2016

anti-pacer said:
Who do you think will get them?

My personal guess is LM will eventually finish up with a 170 fleet consisting only of 3 car ones and will eliminate their 2 car 170s and 153s as a result of getting more 3 car 170s and the LO 172s. There could be XC 170s joining the LM fleet depending on what the next XC does with regards to rolling stock. That would leave 2 car 170s for Northern or/and another operator.

Starmill · 11 Aug 2016

Units which are genuinely not accounted for once all of the dust has settled and it's clearer what plans are everywhere might be able to be considered for new services. There might be a handful of options on existing routes - or they could be considered for use on new routes. Middle-aged that is going very cheaply could move some new routes over the tipping point of cost:benefit. Although if it turns out there are only EMUs that could create problems for opening new lines.

Although storage or worse scrappage are possibilities, they're probably not inevitable. DfT might be able to be convinced of this given the right business case.

notlob.divad · 11 Aug 2016

jcollins said:
My personal guess is LM will eventually finish up with a 170 fleet consisting only of 3 car ones and will eliminate their 2 car 170s and 153s as a result of getting more 3 car 170s and the LO 172s. There could be XC 170s joining the LM fleet depending on what the next XC does with regards to rolling stock. That would leave 2 car 170s for Northern or/and another operator.

That would be my thinking too. I was trying to work out the numbers. Northern need 18 with the

Performance and quality equivalent to a two car Class 170

by December 2022. So not nessesarily 170s but if they are available ...

There are 4 free from Great Anglia.
Crosscountry have 13
London Midland have 17

Swapping 8 x 3 car for 8 x 2 car with either of these would still leave them short by 6 units. So I think there will be a bit more jiggery pokery

anti-pacer · 11 Aug 2016

notlob.divad said:
That would be my thinking too. I was trying to work out the numbers. Northern need 18 with the by December 2022. So not nessesarily 170s but if they are available ...

There are 4 free from Great Anglia.
Crosscountry have 13
London Midland have 17

Swapping 8 x 3 car for 8 x 2 car with either of these would still leave them short by 6 units. So I think there will be a bit more jiggery pokery

Wouldn't it make more sense to add onto GA's order of bi-mode units for the 18 trains Northern will need?

43096 · 11 Aug 2016

anti-pacer said:
Wouldn't it make more sense to add onto GA's order of bi-mode units for the 18 trains Northern will need?

No, it would make more sense to add on to the order for DMUs with CAF that Northern have already placed!

notlob.divad · 11 Aug 2016

anti-pacer said:
Wouldn't it make more sense to add onto GA's order of bi-mode units for the 18 trains Northern will need?

Sorry, I don't know what routes they are for. Just quoting from the franchise agreement that says from 2022 they will need 18x2 car equivalent to a 170. therefore 170s would fit that requirement.

anti-pacer · 11 Aug 2016

43096 said:
No, it would make more sense to add on to the order for DMUs with CAF that Northern have already placed!

Can they do that?

class387 · 11 Aug 2016

Wolfie said:
my bold

Most of this is about opinions - you will gather from my comments previously that I don't agree albeit I respect your right to your own view.

With respect to the text I emboldened you are aware I assume that the 332s are owned and operated by Heathrow Express which is absolutely nothing to do with GWR. The only linkage is joint operation of Heathrow Connect using HEX-owned 360s which will cease when Crossrail opens....

Yes, but it can't be a bad thing to have similar stock on the same track, even if it is different operators, can it?

RobShipway · 11 Aug 2016

notlob.divad said:
Sorry, I don't know what routes they are for. Just quoting from the franchise agreement that says from 2022 they will need 18x2 car equivalent to a 170. therefore 170s would fit that requirement.

You may also have class 158 & 159's within the next few years depending on who takes over the SWML(South West Trains) routes, that with the 11 class 158 would help to fill that requirement.

43096 · 11 Aug 2016

anti-pacer said:
Can they do that?

If there aren't already options in the contract, they could specify new sets as being fully compatible with the new DMUs. You'd only get one bidder!

NotATrainspott · 11 Aug 2016

Brian Aylott said:
It is not settled - the train plan changed last year and has already changed again this year
There is no doubt that the 360s are possibilties for Scotrail
Brian

Clansman said:
I don't want to shout out unjustified suggestions but could the 360s be a contender for Scotrail? Reason I ask is that the fleet of 21 high density units would be perfect on services from Edinburgh to North Berwick/Dunbar. This would allow the 380s to go back to Ayrshire with the rest of the fleet, and would allow the 4 car 385s in future to be used on core routes around the Central Belt.

Scotrail could also do with a fleet of around 20 units to work the Cathcart Circle and Paisley Canal Lines. The refurbished fleet of 321s would certainly be more than suited to the job and would fit into Scotrail's fleet of 318s/320s well maintenance wise - the fact they are being refurbished inside out could also allow further 320s to go out for refurbishment and replace the ageing 318s in future. This would allow the 385s to be used on more suited routes as they were intended for.

As for the rest of the GA fleet I can see some 170s at least going to London Midland or Chiltern, the 387s definitely on a Thames based route and the 90s on freight duties. The Mk3s and their based EMUs I can see going to the scrap or spare along with the 156s and 153s unless Northern or Arriva are looking to acquire additional units (unlikely).

Hopefully that's realistic enough.

One thing that's certain is that the railway will look completely different all over the UK in the next few years!

No, the Class 385 order is settled and any additional EMU capacity requirements will be made up with the option for another 10x3 car 385s and/or additional shortened 320/4s for the low level routes through Glasow. The 318s and 320s will be replaced together in one >50 unit order in the mid-2020s as they're pretty much the same type of train. That order would also be the opportunity to provide trains for electrified stopping services up to Aberdeen via Perth, with the Cathcart Circle 385s being replaced by the same metro-style type used on the North Clyde line.

RichW1 · 11 Aug 2016

These Aventra's look like they'll have double opening doors like a metro train even on the Intercity's?? We are then replacing Intercity stock with glorified metro stock are we not? Or is there an Aventra with end door version?

pemma · 11 Aug 2016

43096 said:
If there aren't already options in the contract, they could specify new sets as being fully compatible with the new DMUs. You'd only get one bidder!

They'd say ideally compatible as they can't force a manufacturer to bid and then if the desired manufacturer places a reasonably priced bid it will be accepted. Although, it would have been stupid if DfT hadn't made sure there was an option for more 195s in case there was a need for a small number of additional DMUs somewhere else.

RobShipway · 11 Aug 2016

RichW1 said:
These Aventra's look like they'll have double opening doors like a metro train even on the Intercity's?? We are then replacing Intercity stock with glorified metro stock are we not? Or is there an Aventra with end door version?

That is just what the pictures of the train shows, as yet the configuration of either the metro or intercity Aventra trains for AEA as mentioned further back in this thread is undecided.

Bletchleyite · 11 Aug 2016

The Aventras will not be IC - these will be the FLIRTs.

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dk1 · 11 Aug 2016

Neil Williams said:
The Aventras will not be IC - these will be the FLIRTs.

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For some reason this still seems to be stumping some on here & many of my colleagues at AGA that I have spoken with today. Can only assume it was the visit to Bombardier Derby on local TV & ill informed managers that have caused this assumption.

notlob.divad · 11 Aug 2016

jcollins said:
They'd say ideally compatible as they can't force a manufacturer to bid and then if the desired manufacturer places a reasonably priced bid it will be accepted. Although, it would have been stupid if DfT hadn't made sure there was an option for more 195s in case there was a need for a small number of additional DMUs somewhere else.

In the franchise agreement it does say that Northern have to make all reasonable efforts to make provision for optional extra new stock. Or something along that line. I am pretty sure I read that there was an option on more, but taking extra refurbished cascades in 2022 was included. So I would guess the option would only be used if those could not be found. The full replacement of East Anglia's fleet makes it much more likely that suitable units will be available.

dgl · 11 Aug 2016

Would DRS like the MK3's and DVT's to replace their MK2's and DBSO's?

dk1 · 11 Aug 2016

dgl said:
Would DRS like the MK3's and DVT's to replace their MK2's and DBSO's?

Doubt DRS would want to lose the seating in a DBSO. DVTs are wasteful pieces of tin.

Clansman · 11 Aug 2016

NotATrainspott said:
No, the Class 385 order is settled and any additional EMU capacity requirements will be made up with the option for another 10x3 car 385s and/or additional shortened 320/4s for the low level routes through Glasow. The 318s and 320s will be replaced together in one >50 unit order in the mid-2020s as they're pretty much the same type of train. That order would also be the opportunity to provide trains for electrified stopping services up to Aberdeen via Perth, with the Cathcart Circle 385s being replaced by the same metro-style type used on the North Clyde line.

How can you be sure that the final 385s order (excluding the additional 10 if Abellio retain the Scotrail franchise) have settled any potential acquirements?

Also, I was just making justified suggestions rather than actually speculating where the 360s will go. There's no way I think they will end up here and I was more so answering a question from a previous user on how the 360s could fit in up here (I should of really quoted their post).

I'm not sure if you misread but my suggestion about the 360s did not include potential use on the Cathcart Circle - hence why it's not in the same paragraph. The idea was based around using acquired 321s from AGA to complement the fleet of Suburban trains in and around Glasgow which would in turn allow the 385s to be used on more suitable routes.

I can't see how an order of Metro trains could cater for Perth-Aberdeen routes which are more suited to commuter and express trains. The passenger demand is also not enough to justify regular Metro style trains. If you were talking about coinciding another train order with the future Glasgow Suburban batch then I think the latter would come much more earlier. The line North of Dunblane won't even be electrified until around 2030-2040 at the very least

I think it makes the most sense that the Class 318s and 320s will be replaced together by one large fleet of Metro Trains (as said in another thread). They would most likely serve the Cathcart Circle and Paisley Canal (as well as the Argyll and Inverclyde Lines (Bathgate will probably be still served by 334s by 2020-2030 probably) also to allow the 385s to move onto other routes in the Central Belt. Hitachi's AT100 concept fits the bill best in my opinion.

Not to get too much off topic or anything

RobShipway · 11 Aug 2016

dgl said:
Would DRS like the MK3's and DVT's to replace their MK2's and DBSO's?

If anything DRS would have more interest in the class 442 MK3 coaches, than the Mk3's from the East Anglia line, as class 442 have electronically operated doors which are suitable for the 2020 disability act as far as I am aware.

Whereas the Anglia MK3's would have to be converted Chiltern style before they are used.

dk1 · 11 Aug 2016

Robbies said:
If anything DRS would have more interest in the class 442 MK3 coaches, than the Mk3's from the East Anglia line, as class 442 have electronically operated doors which are suitable for the 2020 disability act as far as I am aware.

Whereas the Anglia MK3's would have to be converted Chiltern style before they are used.

Not an expert but I do wonder whether the 442s would comply. The doors appear narrower & not sure about internal bulkheads etc.

Many people couldn't understand why the Irish MK3s weren't saved but these faired even worse in those stakes.

dgl · 11 Aug 2016

Robbies said:
If anything DRS would have more interest in the class 442 MK3 coaches, than the Mk3's from the East Anglia line, as class 442 have electronically operated doors which are suitable for the 2020 disability act as far as I am aware.

Whereas the Anglia MK3's would have to be converted Chiltern style before they are used.

Completely forgot about that, if only the 442's had working standard electrics but that is to be expected on trans that run on 750V and with little need to be loco hauled in passenger service.

Domh245 · 11 Aug 2016

Robbies said:
If anything DRS would have more interest in the class 442 MK3 coaches, than the Mk3's from the East Anglia line, as class 442 have electronically operated doors which are suitable for the 2020 disability act as far as I am aware.

Whereas the Anglia MK3's would have to be converted Chiltern style before they are used.

They are also wired wrong for use in LHCS IIRC (along with the points dk1 makes), so it's a no goer, as is the conclusion of almost every 442 thread on here.

grumblingalong · 11 Aug 2016

dk1 said:
I cannot hide my elation at this thread. Whoever would have thought that us East Anglians would be 'handing down' our stock to others? Bring back BR, no thanks

Seconded. None of us saw it coming did we! "Oh we'll get scotrails 170s and the mk4s" HA! Good fleets for others in the 156s and 170s, bless the scuds but I can't see any future for them that doesn't involve Mr Heinz.

dk1 · 11 Aug 2016

The whole Plastic (442) Pig saga is something that I cannot put a finger on. Why would the DfT spend such a vast amount on the storage of these beasts unless they know something we don't. Until yesterday I had an inkling they may make an appearance somewhere nearby. Best leave that to a different thread.

Domh245 · 11 Aug 2016

dk1 said:
The whole Plastic (442) Pig saga is something that I cannot put a finger on. Why would the DfT spend such a vast amount on the storage of these beasts unless they know something we don't. Until yesterday I had an inkling they may make an appearance somewhere nearby. Best leave that to a different thread.

I don't think the DfT are behind it particularly, it's more likely to be their ROSCO (Angel). Perhaps they're in talks with one of the SW franchise bidders.

NotATrainspott · 11 Aug 2016

Clansman said:
How can you be sure that the final 385s order (excluding the additional 10 if Abellio retain the Scotrail franchise) have settled any potential acquirements?

Also, I was just making justified suggestions rather than actually speculating where the 360s will go. There's no way I think they will end up here and I was more so answering a question from a previous user on how the 360s could fit in up here (I should of really quoted their post).

I'm not sure if you misread but my suggestion about the 360s did not include potential use on the Cathcart Circle - hence why it's not in the same paragraph. The idea was based around using acquired 321s from AGA to complement the fleet of Suburban trains in and around Glasgow which would in turn allow the 385s to be used on more suitable routes.

I can't see how an order of Metro trains could cater for Perth-Aberdeen routes which are more suited to commuter and express trains. The passenger demand is also not enough to justify regular Metro style trains. If you were talking about coinciding another train order with the future Glasgow Suburban batch then I think the latter would come much more earlier. The line North of Dunblane won't even be electrified until around 2030-2040 at the very least

I think it makes the most sense that the Class 318s and 320s will be replaced together by one large fleet of Metro Trains (as said in another thread). They would most likely serve the Cathcart Circle and Paisley Canal (as well as the Argyll and Inverclyde Lines (Bathgate will probably be still served by 334s by 2020-2030 probably) also to allow the 385s to move onto other routes in the Central Belt. Hitachi's AT100 concept fits the bill best in my opinion.

Not to get too much off topic or anything

Yes, they have. For instance, the 385 order includes the units needed to run six car trains to North Berwick rather than the current four cars. The E&G is the only route where four car sets will run and the right number have been ordered to run them in eight car formations. The three car sets will be used only on all the other routes, such as Stirling/Alloa/Dunblane, Shotts and the ECML. The only other route that a four car set might end up on would be future electrified Anniesland, just as express 170s sometimes turn up today, and that would just be for ease of diagramming.

My comment about metro units is that it's more efficient to order one fleet of the same type of train at one time. That's why 100mph regional units have been ordered to run the Cathcart Circle services. Once the 318s and 320s need replaced in the mid 2020s, it'll be possible to replace them and also displace 385s away from where they have replaced the 314s. The regional 385s would end up on regional routes to which they are suited, such as stopping services to Perth and Dundee.

NR are planning to electrify Dunblane to Aberdeen starting in CP6, presumably once East Kilbride, Barrhead and Anniesland are done. This will allow many of the extra ScotRail services announced recently upon the retention of the 13 extra 170s to be run by those 385s freed up from the Cathcart Circle.

Simultaneously the replacement of the HSTs will have to be considered, but it would not be efficient to have one fleet for Glasgow-Aberdeen and another for Glasgow-Inverness and Edinburgh to either. This is where Stadler's product comes in, as they are delivering one basic design in InterCity form for London-Norwich and in shorter, bi-mode form for rural and regional services. There seems to be no reason why they couldn't deliver a half-length InterCity bi-mode train that would be ideal for replacing the HSTs. That the same design would also be able to replace the 15x units on rural duties makes it even more useful for ScotRail.

gareth950 · 11 Aug 2016

Wales has to be a beneficiary from this fleet cascade in some way. The current ATW fleet is stretched to crisis point.
The DMU's being released can provide instant relief in Wales:
The 153's and 156's can go to the valleys to help replace pacers. The 170's can be added to Wales' long distance fleet to supplement the 158's and 175's, which in turn could also release 150s from North Wales to help Pacer replacement on the valleys.

Longer term, if the WG can be persuaded to abandon the proposed tramway conversion for the core valley lines then the 321s can provide an instant ready made fleet with plenty of capacity if refurbished to a high enough standard.
After all, the original business case for the valley lines electrification in 2012 was based on cascaded class 313s providing the initial fleet of EMUs with new build stock following later on.
Even if the core valley lines are converted, heavy rail EMUs will still be needed on the Vale of Glamorgan, Ebbw Vale and Maesteg lines.

East Anglia fleet future cascade options

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