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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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DarloRich

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bramling said:
Make it up or otherwise, in the last couple of days I've detected a very pronounced hardening of opinion. Even the DUP now seem to be directing ire more towards the EU. Every time we see Juncker's face on TV or hear someone saying "no" or "not possible" in a European accent, I suspect this will continue to harden. "Managed no deal" has now entered the vocabulary. I'd suggest it's quite clear where things are heading as things stand at the moment, though naturally this could change.
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I think that is a likely scenario and I suspect that is the real driving force for the ERG clowns trying their stunt this week.
 
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Jonny

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DarloRich said:
I know i will regret this but: what is your position on the Irish border issue? Would you, for instance, accept the dismantling of the GFA and a return to the troubles in exchange for brexit?
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greyman42 said:
What makes you think so certain that the Irish border situation will bring a return to 'the troubles'?
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The IRA received a rather large shipment of arms from a certain Colonel Gadaffi in the 1980s (most of which was intercepted). That has been taken out and has not been replaced. Even if it all kicks off again, the irish-republican extremists will have little weaponry available, and very little if any explosives. MI5 and the SAS have relatively little to do these days anyhow and could easily neuter the terrorists.
 
Esker-pades

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Jonny said:
The IRA received a rather large shipment of arms from a certain Colonel Gadaffi in the 1980s (most of which was intercepted). That has been taken out and has not been replaced. Even if it all kicks off again, the irish-republican extremists will have little weaponry available, and very little if any explosives. MI5 and the SAS have relatively little to do these days anyhow and could easily neuter the terrorists.
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That's just pathetic. "Don't worry, they won't have many weapons" is not a solution to the Irish Border problem.
 
DarloRich

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Jonny said:
The IRA received a rather large shipment of arms from a certain Colonel Gadaffi in the 1980s (most of which was intercepted). That has been taken out and has not been replaced. Even if it all kicks off again, the irish-republican extremists will have little weaponry available, and very little if any explosives. MI5 and the SAS have relatively little to do these days anyhow and could easily neuter the terrorists.
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That seems a very naive view. Afterall despite being the main focus of British poloce, military and secret intelligence services for many years the Irish terrorist groups still managed to function.

It is hardly as if thier key operatives are all locked away for the next 300 years!
 
Mutant Lemming

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DarloRich said:
That seems a very naive view. Afterall despite being the main focus of British poloce, military and secret intelligence services for many years the Irish terrorist groups still managed to function.

It is hardly as if thier key operatives are all locked away for the next 300 years!
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it's a very different Ireland to that of the troubles and if you gave the republic a chance to vote themselves out of the EU you may well find it won't be a problem at all.
 
bramling

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Howardh said:
I can't work out why the DUP supported Brexit as a united Ireland is certainly a possible route now.
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I have to say I'm in agreement with you on this one. Is the answer to the question that the DUP are rather ideologically driven?

Having said that, a referendum is probably inevitable at some stage - perhaps it would be better for the DUP to have it now when demographically they would (presumably?) probably win it, which isn't a certainty forever.

This all works on the basis that ROI actually want NI of course.
 
Esker-pades

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Mutant Lemming said:
it's a very different Ireland to that of the troubles and if you gave the republic a chance to vote themselves out of the EU you may well find it won't be a problem at all.
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Polls show that 85-90% of residents in the Republic of Ireland wish to stay inside the EU.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0509/873610-eu_poll/
https://www.thejournal.ie/poll-eu-ireland-2910947-Aug2016/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...der-solution-theresa-may-latest-a8340941.html
 
HH

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And yet, when I went to RoI last year and spoke to the people there, the general consensus I got from them was that they understood why the UK had voted to leave; they too had issues around immigration. I was actually quite shocked.
 
EM2

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Mutant Lemming said:
it's a very different Ireland to that of the troubles and if you gave the republic a chance to vote themselves out of the EU you may well find it won't be a problem at all.
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There is almost no appetite in Ireland to leave the EU. It is the member state most likely to have a positive image of the EU, the most optimistic about the future of the EU, the second most likely to feel EU citizens, and the second-most supportive of the Euro.
https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/i...itive-image-of-the-eu-eurobarometer-survey_en
Irish people are the most likely to have a positive image of the EU at 64% according to the Spring 2018 Eurobarometer published today. This figure is up 5 percentage points since the last Eurobarometer survey in the autumn. The share of Irish people (8%) having a negative image of the EU was second lowest in the EU after Lithuania (7%). Meanwhile, 27% of Irish people have a neutral image of the EU.

On average, 40% of people across the EU have a positive image of the EU, 37% have a neutral and 21% have a negative. Greece (27%) had the lowest share of people with a positive image of the EU.

Irish people are also by far the most optimistic about the future of the EU at 84% (up 4 percentage points since the autumn), followed by Luxembourg and Portugal (both 71%). The EU average was 58%, dropping to 43% in the UK and 42% in Greece.
  • 79% (up 7 percentage points since the autumn) of Irish people think the situation of the national economy is good, which is well above the EU average of 49%. Respondents in the Netherlands and Luxembourg (both 93%) were most likely to think the situation of their national economy was good followed by Germany (90%) and Denmark (89%). Meanwhile only 2% of Greek respondents thought the situation of their national economy was good.
  • A large majority of Irish people (68%, up 7 pp), 4th highest in the EU, also thought the situation of the European economy was good. The EU average was 50% dropping to 36% in Italy and 33% in France.
  • 78% (up 5 pp) of Irish people think that the impact of the crisis on jobs has already reached its peak, second highest in the EU after the Netherlands at 79%. The EU average was 49% with optimism lowest in the UK (36%) and Latvia (34%).
  • 90% of Irish people support “the free movement of EU citizens who can live, work, study and do business anywhere in the EU, 6th highest in the EU where the average was 82%. Support was lowest in the UK (72%) and Italy (70%).
  • Irish respondents (85%) are the second most likely to feel they are EU citizens after Luxembourg at 93%. The EU average was 70% dropping to 51% in Greece and Bulgaria. A majority of UK respondents (57%) feel they are EU citizens.
  • Support for the Euro was second highest in Ireland at (84%) after Estonia at 88%. The EU average was 61% dropping to 23% in the Czech Republic.
  • When asked what were the two most important issues facing the EU at the moment, Irish people selected: terrorism (40%) and immigration (30%). Climate change came in third at 15%. On average across the EU, the top two issues selected were: immigration (38%) and terrorism (29%).
  • The top three national concerns for Irish people were: housing (56%, second highest in the EU after Luxembourg at 58%), health and social security (41%) and rising prices (20%). The top national concerns at EU level were: unemployment (25%), Health and social security (23%) and immigration (21%).
  • Trust in the EU was also above average in Ireland with 54% (up 4 pp) of people tending to trust the EU, 6th highest in the EU where the average is 42%. Levels of trust were highest in Lithuania at 66% and lowest in Greece (27%) and the UK (30%). The share of Irish people who tend not to trust the EU is down 3 percentage points to 35%.
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EM2 said:
There is almost no appetite in Ireland to leave the EU. It is the member state most likely to have a positive image of the EU, the most optimistic about the future of the EU, the second most likely to feel EU citizens, and the second-most supportive of the Euro.
https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/i...itive-image-of-the-eu-eurobarometer-survey_en
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...yet.

Ireland's supply chains overlap with the UK a lot and Eire would be very susceptible to temporary blips in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Once they have been sacrificed off by the EU, they may see it in a different light even if the disruption is only temporary.
 
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FelixtheCat said:
To add:
There is no political party in the Republic of Ireland which could feasibly be in power which suggest having a referendum on EU membership.
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they said that about UKIP. Then they won the 2014 Europeans, and spooked Cameron enough to make him write the referendum into the 2015 Tory manifesto.

Edit - Harold Wilson said 'A week is a long time in politics'
 
Puffing Devil

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Jonny said:
A lot of the border/freight chaos issues relate to the use of lorries on RORO (Roll-on, Roll-off) ferries. There are plenty of places that can handle ISO containers instead in order to offset the chaos.
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Really? What's the capacity of your alternatives? How do you propose we get the containers quickly on and off the ships (Which we don't have, BTW, as X-channel is rigged for RORO)
 
Basher

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bramling

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Basher said:
Ireland put only about 1.3% of the budget in and get a lot more out. UK puts about 16% of the budget in. No wonder the Irish like the EU.
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And no doubt an independent Scotland would find itself in a similarly good position - except that without Britain the EU wouldn’t have as much dosh to dole out.
 
bramling

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DarloRich said:
I think that is a likely scenario and I suspect that is the real driving force for the ERG clowns trying their stunt this week.
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May’s couple of days in Europe may actually have been a half decent strategy, as I’m definitely detecting the mood amongst people I’m conversing with has changed. At the beginning of the week it was exasperation with May and the Conservatives. At the end of the week it’s now annoyance and defiance towards Europe.

Unlike much of the rest of the week, today in particular has seen the TV news often showing close-ups of Juncker and Tusk, and hearing what is being perceived as intransigence from the EU. The more of that catches the mood, the more public opposition towards no deal will fade to just the die-hard remain advocates. “Managed no deal” I think will quickly become a household tag line.
 
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bramling said:
Unlike much of the rest of the week, today in particular has seen the TV news often showing close-ups of Juncker and Tusk, and hearing what is being perceived as intransigence from the EU.
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What more do you want? They've already given up on free movement.
 
Puffing Devil

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Basher said:
Ireland put only about 1.3% of the budget in and get a lot more out. UK puts about 16% of the budget in. No wonder the Irish like the EU.
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Population of UK = 65m, Population of Eire = 5m. If you do the maths, that's in proportion to the population.
 
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nidave

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bramling said:
At the end of the week it’s now annoyance and defiance towards Europe.
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I suspect from your past posting history you see what you want to see. I interpret it rather differently as most of the people I speak to knew the whole thing was a waste of time as the eu have been clear from the start and each time and may is just trying to protect her own backside even though she and everyone else knew the eu has made its self very clear.

My friends in the eu have moved on from brexit as as far as they are concerned its a UK problem as they are the ones wanting to leave.
 
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nidave said:
I suspect from your past posting history you see what you want to see. I interpret it rather differently as most of the people I speak to knew the whole thing was a waste of time as the eu have been clear from the start and each time and may is just trying to protect her own backside even though she and everyone else knew the eu has made its self very clear.

My friends in the eu have moved on from brexit as as far as they are concerned its a UK problem as they are the ones wanting to leave.
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negotiating away key tenets of the EU was always going to be hard. They have been quite clear for some years that cherry picking bits of the EU would not happen. But UK politicians keep ranting and suggesting such a deal is possible.

its quite a simple binary thing
we stay in the EU club and accept SM, CU, FoM and ECJ*
or leave and have none of the above

*SM=Single Market, CU=Customs Union, FoM=Freedom of Movement for workers, ECJ = accepting jurisdiction of European Court of Justice, an EU institution.

as an aside don't muddle up the ECHR - European Court of Human Rights with ECJ. That is NOT part of EU. It is part of the Council of Europe, an organisation of 47 members, incl many former Soviet states. Council of Europe membership is a pre-requisite for EU membership. I know of no plans for the UK to leave the Council of Europe.


edit - this schematic of the overlapping European and EU institutions may help...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Supranational_European_Bodies-en.svg
 
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EM2

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Ken H said:
its quite a simple binary thing
we stay in the EU club and accept SM, CU, FoM and ECJ*
or leave and have none of the above

*SM=Single Market, CU=Customs Union, FoM=Freedom of Movement for workers, ECJ = accepting jurisdiction of European Court of Justice, an EU institution.
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But it isn't that simple, is it? As has already been mentioned, Norway are not EU members, nor are Switzerland, and neither are party to the CU because they are in EFTA (European Free Trade Association).
Nor do they, along with the other EFTA members, participate in the Common Fisheries and Agriculture Policies.
 
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nidave

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Ken H said:
negotiating away key tenets of the EU was always going to be hard. They have been quite clear for some years that cherry picking bits of the EU would not happen. But UK politicians keep ranting and suggesting such a deal is possible.

its quite a simple binary thing
we stay in the EU club and accept SM, CU, FoM and ECJ*
or leave and have none of the above

*SM=Single Market, CU=Customs Union, FoM=Freedom of Movement for workers, ECJ = accepting jurisdiction of European Court of Justice, an EU institution.

as an aside don't muddle up the ECHR - European Court of Human Rights with ECJ. That is NOT part of EU. It is part of the Council of Europe, an organisation of 47 members, incl many former Soviet states. Council of Europe membership is a pre-requisite for EU membership. I know of no plans for the UK to leave the Council of Europe.


edit - this schematic of the overlapping European and EU institutions may help...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Supranational_European_Bodies-en.svg
Click to expand...
If it's that easy then why is it all such a mess.. Could it be there is more to it than you think.
 
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