It's not odd; it's nonsense. The bidder has submitted a timetable. However, it is always within the remit of DfT to change that timetable. This looks like a political decision, so it won't be made on operational grounds.
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SouthEastern franchise direct award through to 1 April 2020 (& franchise competition terminated)
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pdeaves
Established Member
It might be "odd" to award a franchise without confirming services. However, remember that the same government department awarded the IET contract without (effectively) knowing what trains were on offer!
Arriva 175
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Surely with the Gov currently conducting a review of the Railway structure that it would be non sensical to award this franchise if say franchises are no longer to be the model used in future. They could award it now and then completely change everything leaving South Eastern stuck in the current format until it ends or the winning operator finds itself in a financially unique position. Aka worse off. Wouldn't it be best for a Direct award until after the review?
Not really. The point is that SE, East Midlands and West Coast are relatively predictable so sensible to proceed with under the existing model (better for passengers to proceed). Cross Country will involve lots of less predictable changes and lots of investment so better to have a big think before then.
urpert
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There is also precedent in the form of Chiltern’s 20 year franchise!
43074
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Or more pertanently there was very limited interest in the XC franchise anyway, numerous sources suggested only one bidder was interested, which I suggest had more of a bearing on things. The new SE and EMT franchises are slightly different to usual anyway, SE for requiring the new franchise to partner with a rolling stock manufacturer and to look at the feasibility of implementing ETCS or similar and both franchises have a greater emphasis on alliancing with NR.
It takes a while for everything to be signed off. Every i has to be dotted; every t crossed.
What I'm saying is that the decision has been made, but there is a process to go through and some issues to be sorted. Given the revised timescales there doesn't need to be an announcement before March, so I don't expect there to be one.
Jorge Da Silva
Established Member
Got some news, may not take place until 2020.
http://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.uk/2019/01/17/southeastern-franchise-delayed-into-2020/
http://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.uk/2019/01/17/southeastern-franchise-delayed-into-2020/
Now I could just cut and paste this story given it follows what has happened many times already but could the next Southeastern franchise now slip yet again – and begin running in 2020?
I was sent an email this morning from a reader regarding an answer to a Parliamentary question yesterday on when the next franchise would be awarded.
Now that should be an easy one to answer as yet another extension was announced in December for 12 weeks and the DfT should have a very good idea when the final franchise would be revealed. But the reply doesn’t give a date, month or even season but simply says “we expect to award the franchise this year”. Why so vague? Have more problems arisen?
Now it could be no change at all and the DfT don’t want to pin themselves down. I could be making a mountain out of a molehill but this is the Department for Transport under Chris Grayling.
At this stage they really should be close to having a definitive date for announcing the award given the start date was announced as 22nd June 2019 and any new operator needs time to prepare.
The current economic uncertainly and economy slowing almost to stagnation will also be leading to discussions on expected income, work patterns and passenger numbers.
Of the four original bidders one pulled out (Trenitalia) and the remaining three all have recent histories which make an award liable for criticism. GoVia have run Southeastern since 2006 and were behind the Thameslink timetable fiasco, Stagecoach handed back East Coast services and Abellio are reported to have been overly optimistic with Greater Anglia leading to financial issues.
The article provides no evidence to support the assumption and it’s a big leap from “the announcement will be made this year” to a delay to 2020
HH seems to be in the know and has stated that the decision has been made it’s just the timing of the announcement that’s not clear
HH seems to be in the know and has stated that the decision has been made it’s just the timing of the announcement that’s not clear
Class 170101
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I'm going to go for March 29th. Now thats bound to be a slow news day.
I hear there is likely to be a further delay. I'd say that a June start is now looking unlikely.
I'd rather take a delay than it run into trouble later...What a joke the DFT and it's woeful Franchising system are.
theageofthetra
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I can't see anything changing until Crossrail is up and running. Has too much of an impact on loadings and revenue on the busiest SE routes.
Abellio senior management in Netherlands presumably getting a bit nervous about everything they do in the UK...
Plenty of non B word reasons for a delays too!
Aictos
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I agree, I think it's more likely that the next franchise won't start until a good 3 to 6 months after Crossrail aka Elizabeth line is up and running for the reasons that you have explained above and that's being hopeful, worse case scenario is a delay until 12 months after Crossrail is up and running....
Still some decent size thameslink impacts on SE to come as well.
Crossrail may well open the core with less than an Abbey Wood - Paddington service.
One of the key things the bidders were being asked to bet on was what would happen post Crossrail, Thameslink, working pattern changes (and keep their thinking on housing growth to themselves)
swt_passenger
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Surely the franchise ITT already allowed for the Crossrail consequences? It’s possibly a fair discussion point but I don’t see Crossrail’s current issues being a main reason for the delays.
pdeaves
Established Member
Well, if the bids are based on 'Crossrail working' and the franchise starts with 'Crossrail not working', there will be a difference one way or the other on the impacts compared to the bid. All parties will want to keep tabs on that.
Agreed on delays, it only effects the bidders growth numbers (how big the negative is and when it hits!) a delay to CR could mean the bidders all wanting to bid adjust with a better first franchise year for a better chance of winning.
There are huge number of potential reason for the delay.
Those comments were 6 days a part a lot could change in the interim.
That then mean that even if a decision has been made to award the franchise it can still be overturned or a TOC withdraw ? I'm interested in why there is ANOTHER delay. Surely if the TOC knows they have won then its in their best interest to get anything resolved asap. If HH was right in that a decision had been made then surely paperwork is just a matter of course.
The ever increasing gap between Southeastern Metro and TfL fares will hamper Southeastern too. It's growing ever wider with some big percentage differences now http://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.uk...-live-on-system-save-money-over-southeastern/
The whole franchise model seems broken. Expecting the bidders to know how many news homes will be built, for example, is a massive risk. At least TfL have much more experience on that front than the DfT or franchises given the GLA's work in that area.
The whole franchise model seems broken. Expecting the bidders to know how many news homes will be built, for example, is a massive risk. At least TfL have much more experience on that front than the DfT or franchises given the GLA's work in that area.
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