DynamicSpirit
Established Member
So you're still arguing by making up random bits of fiction and wild guesses that you then present as if they were facts?
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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)
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So you're still arguing by making up random bits of fiction and wild guesses that you then present as if they were facts?
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I was told a few pages ago that HS2 passengers are not guaranteed seats.
Polarbear
Established Member
I’ve not read every single post on this thread,(War & Peace would be quicker), but I’ve not seen anything official that states categorically that passengers using HS2 will not be guaranteed seats.
Similarly, there hasn’t been any official announcement about the fare structure either.
The aim is not to have standing in normal operation but provision for some standing to aid recovery if there has been disruption.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
You claimed tickets costing around £100. That is wild speculation. There is no reason to believe London-Birmingham tickets on HS2 will be anything like so expensive - other, obviously, than for the anytime tickets which cost a lot more than £100 even today on the WCML.
Guaranteed seats... well, we don't yet know what the policy will be on HS2. But in general, as far as I'm aware, today no-one gets a guaranteed seat on any train (other than the sleepers), although people who book in advance can get seat reservations on most long-distance trains. So I'm not sure why you'd think it's a big deal if HS2's policy on seats is the same as almost all of today's existing trains? As it happens, given the high speed nature of HS2 and the high capacity of the trains that will run on it, I wouldn't personally be too surprised if a decision gets made to only allow travel on the high speed sections with a reservation, which would effectively guarantee seats (especially since by the time HS2 is built, reservation technology will probably be way beyond today's situation) - but of course that is just me speculating. In reality it's impossible to know either way.
On the up side, at least you quoted the correct current official figure for the cost of HS2
Note though that that's the projected cost of the entire line - phase 1 and 2 - not merely the London-Birmingham section that we currently appear to be discussing.Andrew1395
Member
HS2 will create more journey opportunities for towns not on the HS2 route - Watford Junction will get more classic WCML services North of Birmingham. So HS2 will improve rail connectivity for that rail hub. There will be many other examples too. A direct service to Manchester and other locations will be attractive to many, regardless of the time. When London Midland ran from Watford to Crewe it was a very popular service, especially as the Virgin services had been withdrawn. The benefits of HS2 will be seen on other rail corridors. So you can't just look at HS2 services in isolation. You need to value the impacts elsewhere too. Once people start to see that I think lots of the current concerns among regional stakeholders will be soothed
You claimed tickets costing around £100. That is wild speculation. There is no reason to believe London-Birmingham tickets on HS2 will be anything like so expensive - other, obviously, than for the anytime tickets which cost a lot more than £100 even today on the WCML.
Guaranteed seats... well, we don't yet know what the policy will be on HS2. But in general, as far as I'm aware, today no-one gets a guaranteed seat on any train (other than the sleepers), although people who book in advance can get seat reservations on most long-distance trains. So I'm not sure why you'd think it's a big deal if HS2's policy on seats is the same as almost all of today's existing trains? As it happens, given the high speed nature of HS2 and the high capacity of the trains that will run on it, I wouldn't personally be too surprised if a decision gets made to only allow travel on the high speed sections with a reservation, which would effectively guarantee seats (especially since by the time HS2 is built, reservation technology will probably be way beyond today's situation) - but of course that is just me speculating. In reality it's impossible to know either way.
On the up side, at least you quoted the correct current official figure for the cost of HS2
On a train with full seats the cost of operating that train will be about £8/seat (Staff, trains , power, maintenance) for Euston -Manchester so anything above that is capital repayment or profit or cost of not having seats filled hence a very strong incentive to fill seats to make the financial model work.
Maybe it is, it's also far lower than I suspect it will end up being. I was told a few pages back that my guess of £200 return tickets would be a price cut when considered for inflation. We could be looking at £300+. We could be looking at £10, of course. I have doubts that the tickets would be cheap, nothing else about the scheme has been so far!
If airlines did a deal on combined ticketing with the HS2 operator, BHX and MAN could be major winners. There's no reason for the train company not to offer cheap, wholesale tickets to airlines as long as the capacity exists and domestic travellers couldn't get their hands on them.
Geezertronic
Established Member
A major infrastructure project not being cheap.... I fail to see how that is a surprise
Last time I checked Buenos Aires was in Argentina. I guess you learn something new every day on this thread
Equally, we could be looking at some tickets at £10, some tickets at £300, priced according to capacity/demand/market segment. Exactly like the current WCML. High charge (essentially indirect taxation on business travellers) for travelling at business times, cross-subsiding the leisure market at other times.
[Having done the value of a marginal seat on HS2 calcs for an "interested" party]
Overall I'd expect the pricing curve and demand levels to vary quite bit by destination pairs.
Agreed except there will be a huge amount of extra capacity overall (including on quieter residual WCML services) but with a much lower OPEX cost base, hence the pricing curve will be far far flatter than currently especially off peak.
Off peak the first aim will be to cover operating costs for that service then maximise surplus. Given the number of seats my guess is that they would start at around £20 in current prices so break even occurs at around 50% loading (just few pounds more at this level makes a huge difference to break even point) with a gently increasing prices till 70%, then a more rapid increase above that point some off peak with some much more heavily loaded and highly profitable off peak services.
Peaks (commuter definition peak 3hr arrivals) - far harder to estimate pricing structure on this but with mix of 200m and 400m and an average price of £50 and conservative variable loadings (e.g. some full, some not) would take a conservative £2bn minimum annually...
Facing Back
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Am I right in assuming that the OpEx is running the train - and is much the same whether the train is empty or full? Is there is a significant incremental cost per passenger on top of running an empty train? Perhaps electricity costs or the costs of thirsty first class passengers scoffing more of the free stuff?
The main extra cost is likely to be on train staff (e.g. Train Managers, etc.) when carrying passengers, if the train is running empty anyway.
Yep not much variance depending on load factors. For example Power use will only increase by about 10-15% from empty to full, hence filling the train is what you want to do.
Getting the stopping patterns and pricing right in the peaks will be interesting in reality for example discouraging early booking London to Birmingham Interchange passengers from using the busiest services so more longer lower journeys can be sold and overall seat occupancy is higher.
A hypothetical train charging £1 million per seat from London to Chester would be completely empty, yet still need train staff just in case the Duke of Westminster fancied a jaunt up to his country pile.
I took the question as being about fixed vs variable costs for different load factors rather than just full vs empty (ECS).
The concept looks to be built around a lean staffing model e.g. vending machines in standard (food and coffee options) as well as duplicated trolley /counter options in both standard and first to reduce staffing levels.
jfowkes
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Making lots of assumptions, the empty weight of a 1000-passenger capacity HS2 train would be 520t (80 passengers per car on average, so 13 cars, 40t per car). The weight of 1000x 80kg people (plus 10% for luggage) is 88t. So that's about a 17% weight increase from empty to full, which will translate to extra power draw, all other things being equal.
*That's more than I thought it would be (even from the back-of-an-ecig-box calculation) - I expected more like 5%.
Do drivers follow a constant-power or constant-acceleration profile? If they just apply the same power regardless of weight, then of course the extra weight doesn't matter (in the starting/stopping phases of the journey), the train will just accelerate slower.
*That's more than I thought it would be (even from the back-of-an-ecig-box calculation) - I expected more like 5%.
Do drivers follow a constant-power or constant-acceleration profile? If they just apply the same power regardless of weight, then of course the extra weight doesn't matter (in the starting/stopping phases of the journey), the train will just accelerate slower.
Limited by available power above circa 50mph in this case (and by tractive effort below 50mph)
Passenger capacity will be min. 1100 for 2x 200m or the bid won't be taken seriously...
Facing Back
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That was exactly the premise of my question thanks
matacaster
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Last time I checked Buenos Aires was in Argentina. I guess you learn something new every day on this thread
Ooops my bad!
Perhaps Rio De Janeiro might have been a better bet.
matacaster
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With various suggested reductions in speed for HS2 from the original figure, how does that translate into rolling stock required?
ie, If the average / max speed is reduced, then the journey per se takes longer. At some point, that must translate into the need for an additional set(s) to cover the diagrams for a day. At what point (ie average journey speed) would an additional set be needed.
ie, If the average / max speed is reduced, then the journey per se takes longer. At some point, that must translate into the need for an additional set(s) to cover the diagrams for a day. At what point (ie average journey speed) would an additional set be needed.
Lets say Manchester services run every 20 minutes. So every extra 10 minutes on journey time you add adds an extra set into the Euston-Manchester cycle overall. (10 mins x 2 directions = 20 minutes = 1 circuit).
Repeat logic for other service groups.
If you were unable to get a seat on HS2, that would suggest that it was very well used indeed and therefore needed.
Aictos
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With HS2 freeing up capacity on the West Coast and to the Midland Mainline/East Coast, this could mean more IC services being able to call at Luton, Bedford and Stevenage eg a hourly semi fast Sheffield calling Luton, Bedford then via Nottingham to Sheffield.
The interesting side discussion relating to German Reunification in the 1990s has been moved to its own thread which can be found here.
Esker-pades
Established Member
"SCANDAL: Thing that's supposed to be built has money spent on it!"
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/andrea-leadsom-12bn-spent-on-hs2
How much money and time will be wasted on this urgent review? (Answer: Far too much. )
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/andrea-leadsom-12bn-spent-on-hs2
How much money and time will be wasted on this urgent review? (Answer: Far too much. )
Aictos
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The only review needed is one into the wasteful use of time and money by anti HS2 users into slowing down and trying to prevent this urgently needed national infrastructure!
As to Leadsom, typical talking absolute rubbish!
And another self serving Tory leadership hopeful attempting to jump on the populist bandwagon in this respect. No doubt heavily influenced by the US air and petroleum industry funded climate change denying right wing think tank complex.
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