But that’s my point. Air fares on these small markets with decent competition had to be close to the competition. For Northumberland to Poole there are, what, three flights a day Newcastle to Southampton? Compared to two trains an hour by train changing in London (with a sub 5 hour journey time to Southampton). I would guess that depending on start / finish points, door to door would be about 3 hours longer by train, but the latter would be more comfortable, easier to work, sleep, etc. If you didn’t want to get up early enough for the early flight, but didn’t want to wait for the late afternoon flight, or wanted some flexibility, train would win every time. Hence for many people the train is the option, and the airline has to price accordingly.
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Flybe problems - did they take rail improvements into account?
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But that’s my point. Air fares on these small markets with decent competition had to be close to the competition. For Northumberland to Poole there are, what, three flights a day Newcastle to Southampton? Compared to two trains an hour by train changing in London (with a sub 5 hour journey time to Southampton). I would guess that depending on start / finish points, door to door would be about 3 hours longer by train, but the latter would be more comfortable, easier to work, sleep, etc. If you didn’t want to get up early enough for the early flight, but didn’t want to wait for the late afternoon flight, or wanted some flexibility, train would win every time. Hence for many people the train is the option, and the airline has to price accordingly.
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47271
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Flybe is ineptly run, makes stupid mistakes (there have been some crackers in Scotland in the past five years) and operates some very marginal routes, and those factors combined are far more likely to be the cause of their problems than competition from the railway.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
I shouldn't think the "review" of Air Passenger Duty is going to affect international flights, just domestic.
It may also be tailored to smaller airports whose regions need the connectivity.
Whether large airports like Manchester, Edinburgh and Belfast will qualify for a reduction remains to be seen.
It looks like a subsidy by any other name.
APD was introduced to compensate for the lack of tax (duty and VAT) on aircraft fuel, which other modes pay.
Any reduction would incentivise air travel and work against wider environmental policy.
Flybe hasn't settled its long term route network as it is still downsizing to reduce costs/losses.
Routes that think they have been saved permanently might be in for a rude shock before too long, as Flybe pulls out or reduces frequencies.
I think we'll hear a lot more about relative subsidies in the future, between rail and air services.
It may also be tailored to smaller airports whose regions need the connectivity.
Whether large airports like Manchester, Edinburgh and Belfast will qualify for a reduction remains to be seen.
It looks like a subsidy by any other name.
APD was introduced to compensate for the lack of tax (duty and VAT) on aircraft fuel, which other modes pay.
Any reduction would incentivise air travel and work against wider environmental policy.
Flybe hasn't settled its long term route network as it is still downsizing to reduce costs/losses.
Routes that think they have been saved permanently might be in for a rude shock before too long, as Flybe pulls out or reduces frequencies.
I think we'll hear a lot more about relative subsidies in the future, between rail and air services.
I agree that we might hear about subsidies between rail and air, which will raise some tough questions.
Meanwhile I strongly suspect that the deal is no more than allowing Flybe to defer some APD liabilities, and the Government ‘review’ will be into necessary domestic regional air links where the alternatives are poor. I agree that many routes are on borrowed time.
irish_rail
Established Member
Let's face it internal flying will get less and less over the coming years. It is getting harder to justify. What flybe (should it survive) need concentrate on are it's none british routes, like Exeter/ Newquay to Ireland as well as it's European destinations. Internal flying is just not going to be socially acceptable going forward....
Busaholic
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Can't see this 'deal to save' Flybe is anything of the sort. It's being presented here in the S.W. (that is, the real S.W. i.e. Devon and Cornwall) as 'saving' the airline whereas the reality is that it probably only delays the inevitable by a few months at best. Government 'looking into' APD inspires no confidence that anything too much will come of it, and even if I'm wrong I can't see it being a gamechanger. The millions to be put in by Virgin, Stobart, etc are surely, at least in part, merely what they agreed to put in months ago and haven't done as yet. It reminds me of all the re-announcements of government investment started by Gordon Brown and enthusiastically carried on by George Osborne, Theresa May and, from now on, Johnson, Javid et al. Let's see whether Virgin Atlantic and co do put their money where their mouths are. In the meantime, if you have to book Flybe make sure you at least do it by credit card.
I don’t see why flying the 4-500 miles from Exeter to Edinburgh (6 flights a week) should be any less socially acceptable than flying the 4-500 miles from London to Geneva or Frankfurt (60 flights a day). Much more opportunity to save the planet by reducing the latter by 10% than the former in total.
I can fully imagine that in a lot of cases rail will be a more suitable form of transport.
However it’s my personal preference that I would rather sit around in a airport lounge for 45/50 minutes at each end of my journey plus an hours flight rather than endure a minimum of 6 hours on a train with the added hassle of changing in London in what are possibly peak times.
At the end of the day 3/4 hours extra journey time as a while may not seem much in the grand scheme of things, however that’s half of a working day to a lot of people.
Because policy is designed for London and stuff everyone else. If you get the right train London to Geneva and Frankfurt are actually quicker than Exeter-Edinburgh as well.
AlterEgo
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Will they be able to get you from Exeter to Edinburgh in 90 minutes?
squizzler
Established Member
Is there a somewhat regressive aspect to this (the masses being asked to support stuff only used by the wealthy)? Flybe might be seen by many as a businessman's operator serving London City and allowing those in the City to get out to the provinces and back in a day (although I haven't been on those routes). Meanwhile the 'bucket and spade' operators are allowed to go to the wall. Compare and contrast to the narrative the HS2 discontents here have been trying to make stick: that it is a railway that will only serve the City businessman who has to do day trips to the provinces.
It does make it sound as if Newquay is some far flung remote place. It's like 20 minutes from the major trunk road, not that much further to get to somewhere like Bodmin Parkway, St Austell or Truro to join the rail network (if the branch line service doesn't cut it for you) - and that's before the question of how many people actually stay in Newquay
Amusingly they did the same for Exeter on Radio 4 this morning. How is Exeter "remote" when it's around 2 hours from Paddington, and only about an hour from Bristol?
Personally, I'd rather see rail improvements over trying to bribe aviation. Newquay might be hard, but mainline improvements are easier and more justifiable. Remember that Newquay Airport is only where it is because of history - it wasn't built from scratch to serve the holiday market.
Never ever thought about flying to/from NQY and I used to be able to see the runway lighting on a good day. Much prefer the train, slower though it is
Envoy
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Part of the problem for regional connectivity regarding rail lies with Cross Country and their short trains and high fares. Very often it is cheaper to fly from say Edinburgh to Bristol than to go by train.
modernrail
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Agree fully with this. A major upgrade of Cross Country is much more important than this bail out for overall regional connectivity.
irish_rail
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So true. It is about time XC ran proper length trains and priced their services more competively to actively encourage more custom.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
And, taking into account the long journeys involved, had a seating layout more commensurate with long journeys. To be fair, the off-the-shelf 80x layout would be just fine for that as it has excellent legroom.
Personally, I'm more inclined towards an outright ban on domestic flights that don't cross water than subsidising a basket case airline to stay in business (be that directly or indirectly).
There have been quite a few regional airlines significantly downsize of change business model across western Europe without publicity (e.g. CityJet in UK & RoI) in the last few years.
The big airlines will pick off potentially more profitable higher volume routes (as they have elsewhere) making the current or similar FlyBe model unsustainable. It looks like Easyjet is soon to do that on a few FlyBe routes, it looks like they can't adapt quickly enough.
underbank
Established Member
But how many years would it take to improve Cross Country rail? Whereas the bail out is an instant short term fix. Long term, say 5 years, then yes, let's sort out Cross Country with longer trains, fewer stops and cheaper fares so that it can compete with domestic air travel, but people need to travel during those few years, so we don't really have any alternative but to keep domestic flights, especially if the FlyBE problems are only short term and they have a robust recovery/long term plan.
kristiang85
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Indeed... oddly enough I actually do need to get from Gatwick to Manchester quickly next month, and I was surprised there were no flights. So now my trust is in a Southern/Avanti combo to get me there (at probably a lot more than a flight would have cost).
jagardner1984
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This starts to get to the nub of the climate vs economy position.
Flybe’s route network is largely a reflection of failed rail policy over 50 years or more. Time is money for most people and the realistic journey time for the Aberdeen-Exeter by rail is astronomical by comparison, before you start on the cost. Had we had a decent strategy of high speed rail it would be a different conversation, but we don’t, so ministers are left with further subsidising environmentally dreadful operations, via whatever deceitful means, or saying to businesses and travellers they will effectively need a days travel for any South England - Scotland journeys that do not involve London (ie a number of FlyBe operations).
When we start talking about “productivity”, this is exactly what a failure of infrastructure planning results in. It’s obviously good news 2400 people don’t lose their jobs tomorrow, but at some point realistic choices need to be made on climate vs economy, and the reemployment and retraining required.
It does make me think it now makes it harder for them to scrap HS2.
Flybe’s route network is largely a reflection of failed rail policy over 50 years or more. Time is money for most people and the realistic journey time for the Aberdeen-Exeter by rail is astronomical by comparison, before you start on the cost. Had we had a decent strategy of high speed rail it would be a different conversation, but we don’t, so ministers are left with further subsidising environmentally dreadful operations, via whatever deceitful means, or saying to businesses and travellers they will effectively need a days travel for any South England - Scotland journeys that do not involve London (ie a number of FlyBe operations).
When we start talking about “productivity”, this is exactly what a failure of infrastructure planning results in. It’s obviously good news 2400 people don’t lose their jobs tomorrow, but at some point realistic choices need to be made on climate vs economy, and the reemployment and retraining required.
It does make me think it now makes it harder for them to scrap HS2.
Used to get one way fares on BE for around £30 on that route , not of late. BA fares have gone up from LHR to GLA/EDI to.
My thinking was that it was a minor contributor factor and one that the FlyBe management might have over looked especially as it is very route specific. Agree in general on many of their markets being to small.
The problems for them is that if rail has seen / will soon see some noticeable improvements that align with some of their bigger markets/potentially more profitable routes and hence their ability to fill seats/set prices on those routes then any turnaround plan isn't going to work. (E.g the BBC casestudy yesterday of the property developer who flies from Manchester to Edinburgh return once a week, once TPE/CAF get the 397s working and in service.)
Previously GWR just lenghtened the few remaining 7 sets to 8 car and then a few years later reduced the amount of first class accommodation to increase standard, neither game changing alone but then Reading rebuild, IETs with more seats and some service level improvements and now the new timetable all starts to add up.
Similarly Scotrail/TPE having moved from no change for years on end (and hence Flybe not paying attention to rail in detail and no reason to) to big improvements (often gradually introduced as lots of smaller changes and hence harder to track of non rail people) and those changes often still in progress so maybe not on Flybe's radar?
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Just for info with regards to the Newquay to Heathrow route, it's currently run as a Public Service Obligation (PSO) under EC and EEC regulations and is scheduled to run until 25th Oct 2022. Given the rescue of Flybe, the Gov may still want this to run as a PSO post Brexit.
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/pso_inventory_table.pdf - List of Public Service Obligations as of 18/9/2019
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/pso_inventory_table.pdf - List of Public Service Obligations as of 18/9/2019
I take your point but I think the counter to that would be that if you want business investment in Cornwall then you need to be able to tell the head honchos that they can fly there, connecting out of major international hubs.
I wouldn’t cry for Sarah if the government refused to subsidise her lifestyle though
Presumably this funding informs part of Cornwall's "turkeys voting for Christmas" stance towards Brexit?
AlterEgo
Veteran Member
That would take a decade and still wouldn't produce competitive journey times on many routes.
It also wouldn't produce the ability for the train to drop you off directly at the airport with a through checked bag to hundreds of destinations worldwide, and on one ticket with airline protection.
AlterEgo
Veteran Member
The EU does not fund the PSO route; the table merely sets out the value of the PSO in Euro.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
But you could up the comfort and ability to work while travelling. With the best will in the world, other than for journeys that run exclusively on HS2, it is going to be hard to compete with the journey time by air. The thing is, that's mostly useless journey time as it's broken up and in cramped quarters.
Long distance rail needs to return to being a high-comfort setup, then it can compete because while your work journey might take 6 hours you can work the whole time. There seem to be (much as they have other faults) only two TOCs that seem to have considered this specifically with new stock orders - TPE and Northern - though all 80x are in "ability to work" terms superior to Voyagers.
That could be achieved and it is in some countries (other than the through checked bag, but that is really no great issue).
Indeed you are correct. Did pay for the airport mind you!
On my frequent travels to/from Belfast my fellow Flybe passengers do not stike me as being "the wealthy". In fact they mostly seem to be exactly the sort of people who used to travel on the Dublin ferries as foot passengers back in the 70s/80s and who now, for the Republic, use Ryanair to/from their local airports.
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