Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut

js1000 · 15 Mar 2020

I know I posted that article in The Times but just another snippet in another:

In other developments:

● Train companies are seeking government permission to cut services from March 23 because of falling passenger numbers

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...aps-and-forces-boris-johnson-to-act-nhbc5ctb9

Nothing more sadly. Just says service 23 March.

I hope the government conduct due diligence to ensure that service reductions do not lead to any counter-productive overcrowding during the peaks that would actually exacerbate the spread of this virus. Also concur that cleaning budgets and nightly cleaning process should clearly be increased as a matter of urgency.

RailUK Forums

ComUtoR · 15 Mar 2020

JonathanH said:
I think you would eliminate overtime and possibly need to cut working hours and by implication Pay - no different to the rest of the economy.

Cutting working hours is pretty easy. You just book them on for shorter shifts. That is already part of how the rosters work. The number of hours worked doesn't specifically follow for a reduction in pay as people tend to be 'Salaried' rather than 'Waged'. Because of employment being contractual there would need to be consultation and negotiation. This would no doubt be a prolonged process so by the time that there has been an agreement, the situation may have been resolved.

However, this is not really a viable option. If you managed to renegotiate and reduce working hours and pay then you have to deal with what happens after the crisis is over ? You will have a sudden shortage in staff and that will most likely cost you more in the long term. It would be far better to ask staff to take voluntary leave and reduce overtime. You could also defer training. It would be better in the long term to generate some good will with your employees. Keeping contracts in place etc will allow you to spring back to normal at a moments notice.

ainsworth74 · 15 Mar 2020

Meerkat said:
First stage will be negotiated pay cuts won’t it?

Depends how bad it is and/or how bad BA think it'll get!

Clayton · 15 Mar 2020

JonathanH said:
I think you would eliminate overtime and possibly need to cut working hours and by implication Pay - no different to the rest of the economy.

The idea that people can continue to be paid a full salary when the demand for services (not just transport) is falling across the economy is fanciful.

Common sense about mess rooms would be needed.

I’m sure you’ll expect to carry on being paid in your job even if business temporarily falls off.Eventually some redundancies might happen but the companies will need to resume services in summer or autumn

raetiamann · 15 Mar 2020

The list of companies seeking government assistance may be quite lengthy, however as we are talking UK taxpayer funds, priority should be given to UK owned businesses cuŕrently paying their taxes to HMRC. I'm deliberately being sectlor unspecific here.

js1000 · 15 Mar 2020

BBC now reporting potential service reductions:

Train companies seek bailout as coronavirus hits passenger numbers

The government is in talks with rail bosses to put emergency measures in place to deal with falling passenger numbers after the coronavirus outbreak.

Some train operators were already losing money but fewer fares will put even more pressure on their finances. A senior industry source said fairly drastic measures might be required for train companies to survive.

At an industry meeting last week, passenger numbers were said to have fallen by up to 18% on certain lines. However, another industry source acknowledged that the fall in passengers could be significantly higher.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169

yorkie · 15 Mar 2020

Can we try to stick to updates regarding reductions in rail service frequencies / timetable updates on this thread please.

There are loads of other threads to discuss various other aspects of the coronavirus situation (but if there is a need for another one to discuss something specific not covered by the other threads and too specific for the general thread, feel free to create one!)

js1000 said:
BBC now reporting potential service reductions:

I have created a dedicated thread for people to post any ideas, suggestions or predictions on what the reductions might entail:
https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...th-coronavirus-what-would-you-propose.202180/

SlimJim1694 · 15 Mar 2020

I've had a look at live departures and arrivals for major stations around Europe, including Milan, and there seem to be plenty of trains running including international ones.

The railway is an essential service and unless the whole country decides to stop going to work, including health and emergency workers, then there is going to be a need for trains to run. Yes there will be less leisure travel and many people will work from home or be forced to take leave but the country isn't going to just stop.

Eurostar and British Airways get most of their business from the leisure market or business which can temporarily be done over the phone or with computers, whereas the bulk of the UK rail network is a lifeline for people commuting to essential jobs.

VT 390 · 15 Mar 2020

If TOC's do reduce services will they actually restore them again afterwards?

Horizon22 · 15 Mar 2020

Running a reduced (such as a KRS or even sparser) timetable is probably the way to go. Some key service workers will still be reliant on public transport to get to work (NHS / police etc.) but there's no real demand and the DfT should hopefully realise this. But if it gets political who knows...

What happens to staff is a different matter. Perhaps reduce any overtime / RDW as it simply isn't needed but do you keep people sitting in crew rooms spare? Or ask people to take voluntary leave? If there's no fares -> fewer services -> ultimately, fewer staff in short term.

Horizon22 · 15 Mar 2020

VT 390 said:
If TOC's do reduce services will they actually restore them again afterwards?

Why wouldn't they? The service provision in the current timetable is as it is to try to cope with demand. Many TOCs would like to run fewer, but longer trains for timetable resilience but demand continues to grow and you'd be making hundreds of staff redundant. If you genuinely think that would happen, that's quite the conspiracy you're playing out in your head.

Esker-pades · 15 Mar 2020

This is the exact opposite of what other countries are doing. I believe Denmark is actually making trains longer/laying on extra services so that people don't have to be so close to each other.

VT 390 · 15 Mar 2020

Horizon22 said:
Why wouldn't they? The service provision in the current timetable is as it is to try to cope with demand. Many TOCs would like to run fewer, but longer trains for timetable resilience but demand continues to grow and you'd be making hundreds of staff redundant. If you genuinely think that would happen, that's quite the conspiracy you're playing out in your head.

I was more thinking about how long (if at all) it will take passenger numbers to recover afterwards.

Horizon22 · 15 Mar 2020

VT 390 said:
I was more thinking about how long (if at all) it will take passenger numbers to recover afterwards.

Oh I see. Well that would be dependent on measures the government puts in place. Personally I think it will be 3 months before we get back to "pre-virus" passenger numbers. Probably helped by the leisure travel peak that occurs every Summer anyway which might be larger after people have been fed up cooped in their homes / self-isolating!

Carlisle · 15 Mar 2020

furnessvale said:
That sounds like a good idea NOT. Instead of letting passengers spread out to avoid passing the virus on, let's keep them in the cramped conditions they have become used to!

Surely if the epidemic gets that bad, well be operating similar lockdown conditions to France, Spain & Italy so train use would simply become irrelevant for many during such a state of emergency

SlimJim1694 · 15 Mar 2020

Carlisle said:
Surely if the epidemic gets that bad, well be operating similar lockdown conditions to France, Spain & Italy so train use would simply become irrelevant for many during such a state of emergency

I dont think this country has the resources to enforce any kind of state of emergency or lockdown. The army has been cut and so has the police. They don't have the resources to investigate things like burglaries, muggings, shoplifting etc any more so I can't exactly see them being able to enforce any kind of effective lockdown. Part of me wonders if that's the reason why the UK hasn't followed neighbouring countries examples in dealing with this pandemic. You've only got to look over on the careers section of this forum to see what morale is like in the police!

Essexman · 15 Mar 2020

There may be a case for reducing off peak trains but many people will still need to travel to work and keeping the normal timetable will make this safer by reducing loadings. People are already trying to avoid busy trains by travelling into work early or late.

Bletchleyite · 15 Mar 2020

1735 LNR Liverpool-Euston (8 car) is reasonably loaded but not heaving. Walked up straight into[1] the extra legroom table!

[1] Sitting in, not *walked into*

Bletchleyite · 15 Mar 2020

SlimJim1694 said:
I dont think this country has the resources to enforce any kind of state of emergency or lockdown.

More likely they will close all places that people would want to go to. Unless you've got it you're unlikely to be prevented from going for a run or walking the dog.

Meerkat · 15 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
More likely they will close all places that people would want to go to. Unless you've got it you're unlikely to be prevented from going for a run or walking the dog.

It’s not that hard to enforce - see the Spanish police just driving about chivvying people home over the PA - some will ignore but most wont.

infobleep · 15 Mar 2020

theironroad said:
The last week or so especially there has been a noticeable quietness on many trains and even Waterloo seems eerily quiet at times.

Thursday seemed slightly quieter than usual but prior to that it didn't.

I reckon I'll have a better idea on Tuesday when I likely catch the 18:24 Clapham Junction to Haslemere service. I tend to think that is a good anecdotal barometer on how busy the trains are in this region, as it's the first fast train to depart Clapham Junction since the 17:02 to Alton.

Being the first for a while it is usually busy, so if it turns out not to be so busy, then it is likely other services will also down in number.

theironroad · 15 Mar 2020

VT 390 said:
If TOC's do reduce services will they actually restore them again afterwards?

If they cut 60% of trains due to C19 then of course they'll have to restore them.

If they only cut a few peak hours trains then I'd guess they'd be restored as well at first.

If this goes on for 3 months, then a few people who've worked from home may decide they can make it work long term and actually want to. Then TOCs may reevaluate,but peak hours is at crush and above pre C19 ,d,it so I doubt it. . Most people who've had to work from home, alone probably won't be able to wait to get back in the office as cabin fever will have well and truly set in.

theironroad · 15 Mar 2020

Horizon22 said:
Running a reduced (such as a KRS or even sparser) timetable is probably the way to go. Some key service workers will still be reliant on public transport to get to work (NHS / police etc.) but there's no real demand and the DfT should hopefully realise this. But if it gets political who knows...

What happens to staff is a different matter. Perhaps reduce any overtime / RDW as it simply isn't needed but do you keep people sitting in crew rooms spare? Or ask people to take voluntary leave? If there's no fares -> fewer services -> ultimately, fewer staff in short term.

RDW/overtime is generally at the company's discretion in normal times so I'd imagine that could disappear with a reduction in service levels. Many TOCs rely on RDW to run the timetable, so unless train service levels are dramatically cut, say over 50% then I doubt there'll be a need to reduce core hours.

Killingworth · 15 Mar 2020

Meerkat said:
Are the TOCs dropping units yet? Ie 12s running as 8s etc etc?

In Denmark they're adding units to off-peak trains to allow passengers to sit furher apart. Presumably carriages normally removed out of peak hours won't be. See story in The Independent They're also temporarily banning cash payments on trains.

Denmark's state railway operator has announced it will add more carriages to its trains so passengers can sit further apart, in a bid to reduce coronavirus transmission.

Danske Statsbaner (DSB) said it would increase the length of its trains in off-peak hours "so that public transport does not pose a greater risk of contamination than is strictly necessary".

Public transport authorities around the world are taking precautions to reduce the spread of the disease. Transport for London announced today it would send out extra workers wipe down trains and buses with anti-viral fluid and strong disinfectant.

Elsewhere in Europe cross-border railway services have been scaled back or suspended in a bid to reduce contagion. Rail services in Italy, where the outbreak has been strongest, have had their frequency reduced.

In Denmark DSB has also said it will make all its tickets refundable with no charge so that people who are having second thoughts about travelling are not penalised.

Watch more

Coronavirus declared pandemic by World Health Organisation

The operator is also temporarily banning cash payments on trains in a bid to reduce transmission.

“The government has specifically encouraged travellers in public transport not to travel during peak hours as far as possible," said Flemming Jensen, DSB's chief executive, in a statement announcing the measures.

"I would like to pass that call on to our passengers. At the same time, it is also necessary to implement a number of changes in daily operations that support the authorities' efforts to curb the spread of infection."

He called for passengers to "show understanding and community spirit in the serious situation we are in".

Glenn1969 · 15 Mar 2020

I believe they are planning on making the elderly and the vulnerable self isolate for up to 16 weeks shortly. I'm one of these due to having heart valve/pacemaker and arthritis in several places due to beating cancer 14 years ago. Surely this will have a big effect on leisure travel across the country ?

MikeWM · 16 Mar 2020

Currently on the 0948 Ely to London. If anything, busier than usual for a Monday - make of that what you will!

The 2110 Norwich to Cambridge on Saturday night was also the most packed I’ve seen it...

Earlier on Saturday the Colchester Town to Colchester shuttle was very quiet mid-afternoon, but I suspect that is normal

Bletchleyite · 16 Mar 2020

MikeWM said:
The 2110 Norwich to Cambridge on Saturday night was also the most packed I’ve seen it...

Re evening "p***head expresses" I'd imagine people are going out now in anticipation of not being able to for the next few months.

MikeWM · 16 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Re evening "p***head expresses" I'd imagine people are going out now in anticipation of not being able to for the next few months.

Perhaps in general, but that train seemed full of fairly sensible, (mostly) sober people. (I'd expect the 2240 - the last on that route - may have that problem, and earlier trains probably be full with shoppers, but my past experiences with this one have been rather quieter).

In any event, I hope they don't do any thinning of services until they have time to properly evaluate what services it makes sense to remove, surely things are too much in flux at the moment to be able to perform a proper evaluation. And either way, hopefully not for a fortnight - I'm intending on doing a rover next week... :-/

ChiefPlanner · 16 Mar 2020

Reasonable loadings on the 1131 up fast from St Albans , one other passenger + self got off a 12 car on the return , and this on a sunny day - locals running almost empty and I guess SPX and KX were about 30%+ down.

Journey purpose being to get refund for cancelled Dutch trip next week - no point going to a closed down country with options of further border closures. Clerk in the office said Eurostar were running a special from the Alps to return ski-ers who are disenfranchised from the ski-runs , - for which they have no doubt considerable money.

Shimbleshanks · 16 Mar 2020

My litmus test for the railways is how many of the 35 car parking spaces on Warren Road on the approach to Purley station are occupied. On a normal Monday it would be around 30; today it was just 7.

Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut

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