The start of seismic change?

Bear with me while I muse!

Look back in modern history every 40-50 years something happens which leads to huge changes. WW1 began in the early 1900s and many would argue only took a pause in 1918 before being continued in 1939.

There was then a period from 1945 until the late 1970s where the Country rebuilt. The societal structure developed with NHS, welfare state, 'homes for heroes' etc. People became wealthy by helping Britain rebuild.

Then in 1979 the next change. Nationalised industries sold off, huge change to a place where opportunity for all and free enterprise were the order of the day. Look after number 1 and tread on anyone to achieve your aims, generating wealth was the only game in town. "No such thing as society" is now a catchphrase, despite being only 5 lines of a much longer speech explaining what it meant, it now sums up a period of history.

This has continued for another period of 40 years, but seismic change could well be in sight again due to the coronavirus.

People who only ten years ago probably welcomed and championed the social welfare changes as they were working hard and paying taxes and they would never be a 'scrounger' or 'poor' so the rules wouldn't apply to them. The self employed who 'got on their bike' and were looking after themselves and sat on the 'I'm alright Jack' bus weren't affected.

These significant groups are now quickly realising the safety net is full of holes larger than the person they are designed to catch. They are also realising benefit rules apply to everyone and its a terrible place to be.

Companies such as Wetherspoons, Sports Direct, Next, Pretty Little Thing putting staff in potential danger all for profit. Staff too scared to speak out or call in sick for fear of losing jobs, no representation to ensure their voices are heard.

The UK no longer has a social contract (and a Google search for "UK broken social contract" shows this has been a concern since the last financial crash). The tax bill arrives, the tax bill gets paid, but Government's side of the bargain is never properly spelled out.

The Chancellor hinted today that he has in a few short weeks in the job realised this does appear to be the case. It is possible to pay lots of your income into the pot, not a lot, pay nothing, pay in and get far more out due to how tax laws work. Yet when it all goes belly up everyone wants the same amount out, regardless of how much they have put in.

With this (and Brexit) far from concluded I can see this whole episode being another significant mark in the sand where Government policies changed markedly, hopefully for the good of all once again.

very well put, the quality of the society values in the country have followed that same curve that the virus is tracking, sadly we have had the glory days, now well...

I heard an interview on Radio 4, I think it was on The World at One a couple of days ago. The person being interviewed was a historian (afraid I can't remember his name) who said that the current coronavirus epidemic would be an event of such magnitude and would cause such drastic changes to the world, that future historians would refer to the periods it separated as 'Before Corona' (BC) and 'After Corona' (AC).

Or everyone will just be desperate to get back to “normality” and too busy trying to survive financially to want big changes.

I think there absolutely will have to be a change. I think people will want to get back to normality. How is that going to happen? Will it be a free for all - everyone back to work as you were doing, everywhere opens again and life goes on? I don’t see how that can happen, and I really don’t see how people can be expected to get on with life in those instances either.

The UK economy is likely to go into a deep recession and possibly a depression as the effects of the virus wreaks havoc on economies across the world. Unemployment is already soaring in the US.

Hundreds of companies large and small will be thrown out of business and never reopen, leading to huge rise in unemployment and people struggling to make ends meet. To avoid social unrest the government will have to pay a basic universal wage to each citizen thrown out of work so people will be able to put food on the family table.

Many key companies and industries will be effectively nationalised. It will be an era of big government and big state, funded by borrowing and tax rises on the better off. There will be no austerity and making ordinary folk pay for the excesses of the bankers this time.

These will be very difficult concepts for a Conservative government to grasp but the party is nothing if not pragmatic and could rise to the challenge.

Hopefully the country will be a better and kinder place to live, as people reassess their values and realise the pursuit of money is secondary to health and happiness.

I'd estimate a rapid return to previous values. The fact that the government came through for the majority of people in a large-scale event will be used as a reason to ignore the obvious failings of the government to smaller numbers of people in everyday life.

The eventual casualty numbers won't be that high, quite possibly because of the actions taken, but this will be taken as an opportunity to blame the medical profession for the disruption and the NHS will be pressured as much as before, while the WHO will be utterly eviscerated.

I admire the optimism of people who see this as a sea change, but really it's just a profoundly boring and uncomfortable holiday from everyday life

Meerkat said:

Or everyone will just be desperate to get back to “normality” and too busy trying to survive financially to want big changes.

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It’ll probably end up with quite a few shops & pubs reckoning it’s barely worthwhile reopening & even some supposedly very successful companies likes Wetherspoons don’t appear to be endearing much loyalty judging by their current attitudes to staff

Carlisle said:

It’ll probably end up with quite a few shops & pubs reckoning it’s barely worthwhile reopening & the likes of Wetherspoons don’t appear to be endearing much loyalty judging by their owners current attitudes to his staff

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I suspect that the impact will be a little more drastic than that.

muddythefish said:

The UK economy is likely to go into a deep recession and possibly a depression as the effects of the virus wreaks havoc on economies across the world. Unemployment is already soaring in the US.

Hundreds of companies large and small will be thrown out of business and never reopen, leading to huge rise in unemployment and people struggling to make ends meet. To avoid social unrest the government will have to pay a basic universal wage to each citizen thrown out of work so people will be able to put food on the family table.

Many key companies and industries will be effectively nationalised. It will be an era of big government and big state, funded by borrowing and tax rises on the better off. There will be no austerity and making ordinary folk pay for the excesses of the bankers this time.

These will be very difficult concepts for a Conservative government to grasp but the party is nothing if not pragmatic and could rise to the challenge.

Hopefully the country will be a better and kinder place to live, as people reassess their values and realise the pursuit of money is secondary to health and happiness.

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takno said:

I'd estimate a rapid return to previous values. The fact that the government came through for the majority of people in a large-scale event will be used as a reason to ignore the obvious failings of the government to smaller numbers of people in everyday life.

The eventual casualty numbers won't be that high, quite possibly because of the actions taken, but this will be taken as an opportunity to blame the medical profession for the disruption and the NHS will be pressured as much as before, while the WHO will be utterly eviscerated.

I admire the optimism of people who see this as a sea change, but really it's just a profoundly boring and uncomfortable holiday from everyday life

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Heads or Tails ?
My view is that muddythefish is possibly closer to the unknown outcome

This last couple of days I’ve been mulling over the potential outcomes of all of this and what it might mean for the world in the long term.
Obviously we have no idea of what will actually happen here but I’d be interested in your thoughts on these couple of scenarios:

1) Due to the mismanagement by Trump the Coronavirus crisis in America snowballs and causes a huge amount fatalities (potentially 1 or 2 million) and the electorate finally sees him for what he is - an incompetent buffoon that’s completely out of his depth.
The USA economy therefore tanks, and China overtakes them as the major economy of the world due to the way that they’ve been able to clamp down on the population and move quickly to slow and stop the spread of COVID-19 because of the way they’re set up compared to Western democracy’s...

2) In Europe Germany find themselves propping up all of the Eurozone on their own due to their economy being by far the strongest, and all of the other main players - Italy, Spain (and quite possibly France by the looks of things) seeing their economy’s disappear down the toilet leaving the EU in a huge amount of trouble that they may never be able to find a way out of, meaning that we’re actually in a far better position having walked away from Europe than we ever thought we would be (I didn’t vote leave by the way, I’m just interested in all of this)...

These are just a few thoughts. Could this happen or am I way off the mark?
I’d be very interested in what you all think because I haven’t got a clue to be honest!

Cowley said:

This last couple of days I’ve been mulling over the potential outcomes of all of this and what it might mean for the world in the long term.
Obviously we have no idea of what will actually happen here but I’d be interested in your thoughts on these couple of scenarios:

1) Due to the mismanagement by Trump the Coronavirus crisis in America snowballs and causes a huge amount fatalities (potentially 1 or 2 million) and the electorate finally sees him for what he is - an incompetent buffoon that’s completely out of his depth.
The USA economy therefore tanks, and China overtakes them as the major economy of the world due to the way that they’ve been able to clamp down on the population and move quickly to slow and stop the spread of COVID-19 because of the way they’re set up compared to Western democracy’s...

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Somehow currently Trump's ratings are remaining steady! I do think this could force the US hand when it comes to social healthcare though. There was an article on the BBC a few weeks ago how it may play out that with their access to a state controlled healthcare system the governments of Westminster, Berlin, Scandinavia and so on would be far more powerful than Washington, that appears to be playing out. The small private businesses in the US are starting to get overwhelmed whereas the European systems are straining obviously but with their access to state sized funding and powers and working through. A very close friend is an NHS doctor and he agreed that its quite amazing what the NHS is managing to achieve now it has been unshackled and able to be a pure healthcare provider regardless of everything else. Hopefully we'll have a better NHS out of this and a new political appreciation of it.

Cowley said:

2) In Europe Germany find themselves propping up all of the Eurozone on their own due to their economy being by far the strongest, and all of the other main players - Italy, Spain (and quite possibly France by the looks of things) seeing their economy’s disappear down the toilet leaving the EU in a huge amount of trouble that they may never be able to find a way out of, meaning that we’re actually in a far better position having walked away from Europe than we ever thought we would be (I didn’t vote leave by the way, I’m just interested in all of this)...

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Germany was already a huge chunk of power in the EU doing most of the heavy lifting but it could be interesting...

TheEdge said:

Somehow currently Trump's ratings are remaining steady!

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Because it's early days, and he's only just started reacting to the situation.

A columnist I read this morning (on cbc.ca) notes that President Carter saw his approval ratings go up slightly at the start of his crisis with Iran, before plummeting down.

thejuggler said:

Bear with me while I muse!

Look back in modern history every 40-50 years something happens which leads to huge changes. WW1 began in the early 1900s and many would argue only took a pause in 1918 before being continued in 1939.

There was then a period from 1945 until the late 1970s where the Country rebuilt. The societal structure developed with NHS, welfare state, 'homes for heroes' etc. People became wealthy by helping Britain rebuild.

Then in 1979 the next change. Nationalised industries sold off, huge change to a place where opportunity for all and free enterprise were the order of the day. Look after number 1 and tread on anyone to achieve your aims, generating wealth was the only game in town. "No such thing as society" is now a catchphrase, despite being only 5 lines of a much longer speech explaining what it meant, it now sums up a period of history.

This has continued for another period of 40 years, but seismic change could well be in sight again due to the coronavirus.

People who only ten years ago probably welcomed and championed the social welfare changes as they were working hard and paying taxes and they would never be a 'scrounger' or 'poor' so the rules wouldn't apply to them. The self employed who 'got on their bike' and were looking after themselves and sat on the 'I'm alright Jack' bus weren't affected.

These significant groups are now quickly realising the safety net is full of holes larger than the person they are designed to catch. They are also realising benefit rules apply to everyone and its a terrible place to be.

Companies such as Wetherspoons, Sports Direct, Next, Pretty Little Thing putting staff in potential danger all for profit. Staff too scared to speak out or call in sick for fear of losing jobs, no representation to ensure their voices are heard.

The UK no longer has a social contract (and a Google search for "UK broken social contract" shows this has been a concern since the last financial crash). The tax bill arrives, the tax bill gets paid, but Government's side of the bargain is never properly spelled out.

The Chancellor hinted today that he has in a few short weeks in the job realised this does appear to be the case. It is possible to pay lots of your income into the pot, not a lot, pay nothing, pay in and get far more out due to how tax laws work. Yet when it all goes belly up everyone wants the same amount out, regardless of how much they have put in.

With this (and Brexit) far from concluded I can see this whole episode being another significant mark in the sand where Government policies changed markedly, hopefully for the good of all once again.

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it's quite a well documented phenomenon.
In economic/human behaviour cycles there's a thing called kondratieff wave.It basically explains the "life cycle" of economies.These are very long cycles of about 80-100 years in duration,subdivided into 4 * 20 ish year seasons.By no means an expert on it, but I guess it will vary a bit in length due to demographic changes like people living longer etc.

Most analysts studying this are of the opinion we have now reached "kondratieff winter",which is the major deflationary stage( basically repeat of 1919-1939 stage of last cycle).
we still have remnants of the last "autumn bit to clear out- excess credit ,misallocation of capital, social excesses and so on..just like 1929-1933, and the winter period is starting to bite. I think you could argue that the winter period probably started in 2008, so should last until 2028 or so.

the bad news is there is also a "war cycle" involved with it. deflationary events/recessions/depressions like this usually precede a fairly big war by 3-5 years.
recession year , war year
1929-1933 , 1939-1945 ww2
1973-1979 , iran/iraq(1980-1987)/ falklands
1987 crash , gulf war 1(1990)
2000-2003 , afghanistan/gulf war 2( 2001- 2004)
2008 crash , isis/libya (2010?)
2015 mini crash , syria (2018?)
2020 coronavirus crash , ????????(ETA 2023-2025 ish)

Carlisle said:

It’ll probably end up with quite a few shops & pubs reckoning it’s barely worthwhile reopening & even some supposedly very successful companies likes Wetherspoons don’t appear to be endearing much loyalty judging by their current attitudes to staff

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Yes, I'd expect that sort of "clearout" of non-viable businesses who now don't have the stress of carrying on to collapse but simply won't reopen.

45107 said:

I suspect that the impact will be a little more drastic than that.

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I’m sure your right , i was only considering the brief period straight after govt gives the go ahead for most businesses to reopen

hooverboy said:

the bad news is there is also a "war cycle" involved with it. deflationary events/recessions/depressions like this usually precede a fairly big war by 3-5 years.

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Not really convinced - the Falklands War was globally insignificant, but there was Vietnam, which doesn't fit, and the 1970s oil price shock followed a war rather than leading to one.

Will it really be that catastrophic?
A lot of people will be on reduced income. But quite a few will have been on overtime and more shifts, and a great number will have been on the same money but drastically reduced spending.
When the restrictions lift there should be a mini boom of shopping, eating/drinking out, and staycations/days out. The businesses that survive the drought should get a good chunk of the missing money back, with little need for discounting.
With international travel probably still restricted and higher risk a much higher percentage of holiday money will be spent in the UK, thrown at trying to squeeze breaks in before winter comes.
And there will be a sad boost for UK manufacturers as imports are restricted by the virus cutting a horrific swathe through the developing world.

If the observation by Cowley regarding China and USA comes to pass, I do think China will start to flex their military muscle in the Pacific, they are already quietly building up but are still at present way behind the US, however if the US economy tanks so badly that defence spending has to be drastically cut, then they might see their chance to make centainly the Western Pacific their fiefdom and exclude the USA from that zone, this could lead to potential flashpoints in Taiwan and Korea.

Meerkat said:

Will it really be that catastrophic?
A lot of people will be on reduced income. But quite a few will have been on overtime and more shifts, and a great number will have been on the same money but drastically reduced spending.
When the restrictions lift there should be a mini boom of shopping, eating/drinking out, and staycations/days out. The businesses that survive the drought should get a good chunk of the missing money back, with little need for discounting.
With international travel probably still restricted and higher risk a much higher percentage of holiday money will be spent in the UK, thrown at trying to squeeze breaks in before winter comes.
And there will be a sad boost for UK manufacturers as imports are restricted by the virus cutting a horrific swathe through the developing world.

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Really depends how long the restrictions last. If we're all back at work and free to engage in most social activities in another 8 weeks then the long-term impact in the UK is probably relatively minor. If antibody tests prove that a larger-than-expected proportion of the population have had it, and we are able to go back to a strategy of field hospitals and only isolating the vulnerable, then we are probably okay. If we all spend the entire summer indoors and there's no solution in sight for the winter then things will start to get serious - an increasing range of industries will be pulled back into the essential category, an increasing range of products will become unavailable as stocks are exhausted, and the government will have to start figuring out if they can keep paying people to stay indoors being unproductive any longer.

In terms of a boom, I think you're right that there will be a little bit of extra demand, but realistically if people usually eat out once a week they probably aren't going to have more than 4 extra meals out when they return. Even if there is a boom in holidays, it will still be constrained by reduced hotel capacity because the required staff are scattered around the globe, and may be reluctant or unable to return, and because quite a lot of smaller B&B operators will just be gone. People who had spare money to start with won't especially feel the benefit of the extra, and people who were already living close to the edge may well have been pushed over by only getting 80% of income. In general people walk out of situations like this reluctant to immediately start spending, because they've just had a lot of free time indoors to think about the fragility of their situation.

krus_aragon said:

Because it's early days, and he's only just started reacting to the situation.

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Yes I think this is quite possibly very true. The US had truly gargantuan levels of rising unemployment. The week that ended 21 March saw nearly 3.3 million claims for unemployment benefits which utterly smashes the previous record of just under 700,000 in one week. The number of cases overall in the US just overtook China and is probably actually considerably higher seeing as their testing programme was so comprehensively bungled. Then you can start to throw in the lack of a real healthcare system over there as everything is so balkanised, that many people probably just lost their medical insurance, that millions more didn't have it to start with and that's a recipe for the death toll to grow rapidly.

We'll have to wait and see but whilst his numbers are as high as they ever have been right now that could very very easily flip if the economy continues to implode (why do we think he's so keen to see restrictions lifted by April?) and the death rate explodes. Both of which are things which could easily happen.

RichT54 said:

I heard an interview on Radio 4, I think it was on The World at One a couple of days ago. The person being interviewed was a historian (afraid I can't remember his name) who said that the current coronavirus epidemic would be an event of such magnitude and would cause such drastic changes to the world, that future historians would refer to the periods it separated as 'Before Corona' (BC) and 'After Corona' (AC).

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Rubbish! The Spanish flu in 1918 killed fifty million people and hardly anyone is even aware of it in 2020!

Carlisle said:

It’ll probably end up with quite a few shops & pubs reckoning it’s barely worthwhile reopening & even some supposedly very successful companies likes Wetherspoons don’t appear to be endearing much loyalty judging by their current attitudes to staff

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Have you watched his video to staff? I thought it was empathetic and even compassionate. The headlines attributed to it were total misrespresentation.

Royston Vasey said:

Have you watched his video to staff? I thought it was empathetic and even compassionate. The headlines attributed to it were total misrespresentation.

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Have you got a link please?

Meerkat said:

Have you got a link please?

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Sure, this is the article and link I had seen. Apologies for the link to the Mirror:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/wetherspoons-boss-tells-40000-staff-21743433

Royston Vasey said:

Sure, this is the article and link I had seen. Apologies for the link to the Mirror:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/wetherspoons-boss-tells-40000-staff-21743433

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much obliged!

Royston Vasey said:

Rubbish! The Spanish flu in 1918 killed fifty million people and hardly anyone is even aware of it in 2020!

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Spanish Flu coincided with a small event called the First World War, it’s impossible to untangle the economic effects of WW1 and Spanish Flu.

Spanish flu did see similar city lockdowns to the ones we’re seeing today but it seems more fear as the symptoms of the disease were frequently more severe and frightening. Unlike CoV2 it predominantly killed younger people so had a negative effect on the labour market CoV2 probably won’t have.

Cowley said:

1) Due to the mismanagement by Trump the Coronavirus crisis in America snowballs and causes a huge amount fatalities (potentially 1 or 2 million) and the electorate finally sees him for what he is - an incompetent buffoon that’s completely out of his depth.

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Trump's supporters are worried about the economy tanking, which is why he is already talking of lifting restrictions, and why I suspect his ratings are improving. Americans already seem to be quite inured to millions of their citizens dying through inadequate health-care, so I doubt that they will be as much troubled by any increase in numbers caused by the virus as we would be.

There are parallels here with the AIDS epidemic. This was initially seen as being a gay disease, and so initially most people weren't too bothered as they thought that it wouldn't affect them. Covid19 has largely been perceived as an old-peoples' disease, with the young and even middle-aged seeming to think it won't really affect them, and so they tend to be more worried about the financial impact than the health impact. Again, most Americans don't seem to be that bothered that their health-care system abjectly fails the old, so why should they get that upset about a virus that is perceived to mostly affect the old? Over here, we are worried about "saving the NHS" - Americans don't have an NHS to save, I suspect they are more worried about saving their economy, which is the bed-rock of their society.

As an aside, I do wonder if America's healthcare insurers will survive the inevitable avalanche of claims, particularly if people with insurance are unable to get treatment. Also how will they react to the inevitable massive hike in premiums that will follow - the hikes caused by Obama-Care were unpopular enough. This could be the time that America's healthcare system gets properly reviewed, provided Trump doesn't get in for a second term.

If Trump lifts the restrictions in America, it is possible that the American economy won't tank too badly. And if it survives, so will the global economy. On the other hand, if America's economy crashes, then we could well see a stock market crash of the kind that happened in 1929, and the hyper-inflation that followed in those countries that were printing money, like we are now.

If Trump lifts the restrictions in America, and if we have people dying in hospital corridors despite all our restrictions, I suspect that public opinion here would swing toward lifting the restrictions here too, as people will have got fed up with them by then. In which case, I would expect BoJo to follow suit. He may put on a Churchillian manner, but he doesn't have the same back-bone. Churchill made hard decisions, and many of his policies were decidedly unpopular at the time; whereas BoJo does whatever is most likely to advance his personal position. BoJo has already made it abundantly and repeatedly clear that he is only following scientific advice, so clearly if in the future it is perceived not to be working he can slopey-shoulder any blame. "I followed scientific advice, but now is the time to do what the people want." I can hear him say.

I really don't think that we will get over all this in a few months. The sheer numbers of people who are currently laid-off with no income yet are still having to buy food, and the sheer numbers of companies that have no income yet are still having to pay staff, are mind-boggling. There will surely be millions of small and not-so-small companies, shops, pubs, restaurants and the like that will fail, and the effect will inevitably filter up through to the bigger firms. Meanwhile the government is spending money in amounts not seen since the second world war. There has got to be a financial reckoning sooner or later. If you are seeing this as merely a three-month paid holiday, you need to be asking yourself who exactly is paying?

Mogster said:

Spanish Flu coincided with a small event called the First World War, it’s impossible to untangle the economic effects of WW1 and Spanish Flu.

Spanish flu did see similar city lockdowns to the ones we’re seeing today but it seems more fear as the symptoms of the disease were frequently more severe and frightening. Unlike CoV2 it predominantly killed younger people so had a negative effect on the labour market CoV2 probably won’t have.

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Killed younger people and very quickly too. It's amazing how much of today's response was enacted then too. From social distancing and curfews to closed churches and face masks.

Royston Vasey said:

Killed younger people and very quickly too. It's amazing how much of today's response was enacted then too. From social distancing and curfews to closed churches and face masks.

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Somebody quoted an eyewitness account of it a couple of days that showed some very interesting comparisons. Unfortunately I can’t find it now though.