Jozhua
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- 6 Jan 2019
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Bear with me while I muse!
Look back in modern history every 40-50 years something happens which leads to huge changes. WW1 began in the early 1900s and many would argue only took a pause in 1918 before being continued in 1939.
There was then a period from 1945 until the late 1970s where the Country rebuilt. The societal structure developed with NHS, welfare state, 'homes for heroes' etc. People became wealthy by helping Britain rebuild.
Then in 1979 the next change. Nationalised industries sold off, huge change to a place where opportunity for all and free enterprise were the order of the day. Look after number 1 and tread on anyone to achieve your aims, generating wealth was the only game in town. "No such thing as society" is now a catchphrase, despite being only 5 lines of a much longer speech explaining what it meant, it now sums up a period of history.
This has continued for another period of 40 years, but seismic change could well be in sight again due to the coronavirus.
People who only ten years ago probably welcomed and championed the social welfare changes as they were working hard and paying taxes and they would never be a 'scrounger' or 'poor' so the rules wouldn't apply to them. The self employed who 'got on their bike' and were looking after themselves and sat on the 'I'm alright Jack' bus weren't affected.
These significant groups are now quickly realising the safety net is full of holes larger than the person they are designed to catch. They are also realising benefit rules apply to everyone and its a terrible place to be.
Companies such as Wetherspoons, Sports Direct, Next, Pretty Little Thing putting staff in potential danger all for profit. Staff too scared to speak out or call in sick for fear of losing jobs, no representation to ensure their voices are heard.
The UK no longer has a social contract (and a Google search for "UK broken social contract" shows this has been a concern since the last financial crash). The tax bill arrives, the tax bill gets paid, but Government's side of the bargain is never properly spelled out.
The Chancellor hinted today that he has in a few short weeks in the job realised this does appear to be the case. It is possible to pay lots of your income into the pot, not a lot, pay nothing, pay in and get far more out due to how tax laws work. Yet when it all goes belly up everyone wants the same amount out, regardless of how much they have put in.
With this (and Brexit) far from concluded I can see this whole episode being another significant mark in the sand where Government policies changed markedly, hopefully for the good of all once again.
This last couple of days I’ve been mulling over the potential outcomes of all of this and what it might mean for the world in the long term.
Obviously we have no idea of what will actually happen here but I’d be interested in your thoughts on these couple of scenarios:
1) Due to the mismanagement by Trump the Coronavirus crisis in America snowballs and causes a huge amount fatalities (potentially 1 or 2 million) and the electorate finally sees him for what he is - an incompetent buffoon that’s completely out of his depth.
The USA economy therefore tanks, and China overtakes them as the major economy of the world due to the way that they’ve been able to clamp down on the population and move quickly to slow and stop the spread of COVID-19 because of the way they’re set up compared to Western democracy’s...
2) In Europe Germany find themselves propping up all of the Eurozone on their own due to their economy being by far the strongest, and all of the other main players - Italy, Spain (and quite possibly France by the looks of things) seeing their economy’s disappear down the toilet leaving the EU in a huge amount of trouble that they may never be able to find a way out of, meaning that we’re actually in a far better position having walked away from Europe than we ever thought we would be (I didn’t vote leave by the way, I’m just interested in all of this)...
These are just a few thoughts. Could this happen or am I way off the mark?
I’d be very interested in what you all think because I haven’t got a clue to be honest!
1) Trump isn't approaching this one well, he has some valid points, but they're vastly overshadowed by his generally poor decision making. Fortunately things like quarantines are down to individual states. One thing I will give him credit for is closing the borders in a reasonably timely fashion. I think the US approach will be fragmented and vary by state. The spread and containment will be difficult to gauge on a national level, as testing is still quite poor and people are not incentivised to get tested or go to hospital due to them burdening the cost.
2) The problem is with the Eurozone is it is too big and encompasses different countries with economies and politics that are too different. Usually when a country hits hard times, the value of their currency will lower, making goods and services they sell cheaper for foreigners, creating a sort of balancing effect. The Euro works well for giving a relatively stable currency to some of the smaller countries though. I honestly wonder though if some countries would be better off outside the Eurozone. Greece strikes me as one of these cases.
I don't think China will necessarily overtake the US though, if they release the quarantine while still seeing continued cases, there is no reason why the spread couldn't just balloon again. Now they're dealing with imported cases, which isn't necessarily limited to one city or province.
Rubbish! The Spanish flu in 1918 killed fifty million people and hardly anyone is even aware of it in 2020!
To be fair, it was flanked by two world wars. In fact, the movement of people during WW1 was a catalyst for its spread. Just like globalisation and massive amounts of airline travel was a catalyst in 2020.
I don't think many people have seen an event on this scale in living memory. We hear of distant wars and humanitarian disasters, but generally nothing comes to our doorstep. If nothing else, hopefully people start to take the issue of disease and building a strong global health system seriously and perhaps realise war is no longer our biggest threat.