• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Labour *Could* reinstate HS2 Northern legs after Government fails to sell off land

YorkRailFan

On Moderation
Joined
6 Sep 2023
Messages
1,242
Location
York
A Labour government will have the option of reviving the northern legs of the HS2 rail project, after it emerged it is very unlikely that any land bought by the government for the route will be sold before the general election.

The project was surprisingly axed by Rishi Sunak in his Tory conference speech last year, and Keir Starmer has resisted calls to recommit to the northern phase of the project, blaming in part the fact that the government was “already releasing land between Birmingham and Manchester” bought up for the route.

However, sources have told the Observer it is extremely unlikely that any land purchased north of Birmingham will have been sold by the time a new government is in place.

While so-called safeguarding laws protecting part of the proposed HS2 route to Crewe will be lifted early this year, those rules can be reimposed by a future government and their removal does not entail the sale of government-owned land.

It means that whoever wins the next election will have the option of reviving the project. However, its sudden cancellation, as well as the difficulty in securing the expertise required to build the scheme, mean it may then be even more expensive to deliver.

Industry insiders believe there is no chance of this happening under a Sunak-led government, as the prime minister is understood to have been opposed to the project and its growing costs since his time as chancellor.

Labour’s position is that it has to wait to see what situation it would inherit before making any decisions, but it is increasingly clear that reviving the project may not be as impossible as once thought.

Labour’s leadership is extremely cautious about committing to any spending projects that could open it up to attack from the Tories. Former Siemens boss Jürgen Maier is carrying out a review of UK railway and transport infrastructure for the party and could touch on the issue. A swift sale of HS2 land is unlikely because the government has to meet strict legal tests to offload anything it bought for the route. An accelerated process may risk legal action, while previous sell-offs have taken years.

Rail experts are increasingly perplexed by the cancellation of the HS2 route from Birmingham to Crewe, known as “phase 2a”, which would have solved an impending capacity crunch on the west coast mainline. Without any additional capacity by the end of the decade, they are predicting motorway pile-ups as more trucks head on to the roads, as well as higher fares to control passenger numbers.

The news comes with hopes growing over the viability of a privately backed alternative to the capacity issues created by the ditching of HS2. The government is currently examining a project, championed by the Tory West Midlands mayor Andy Street and Manchester’s Labour mayor Andy Burnham, to create a link between Birmingham and Manchester airport with private backing.

A meeting between the group and transport secretary Mark Harper is due to take place later this month. While ministers are not standing in the way of the scheme being developed, there are concerns that a private scheme would ultimately result in taxpayers footing the bill, when train operators are charged to use it.

A Department for Transport spokesman said: “The government is supportive of work to improve rail connectivity between Birmingham and Manchester.

“We’re continuing to develop a clear programme for selling land no longer needed for phase 2 of HS2, ensuring our approach provides value for the taxpayer and fully engages with the people and communities affected – and as we set out in Network North, phase 2a safeguarding will be formally lifted in due course and phase 2b safeguarding will be amended by summer to allow for any safeguarding needed for Northern Powerhouse Rail.”

I really hope so and I hope that this isn't just Labour making an empty promise. As discussed at length, we need HS2, especially up North along with other projects (NPR, TPRU and MML Upgrade among others).
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

snowball

Established Member
Joined
4 Mar 2013
Messages
7,743
Location
Leeds
I hope that this isn't just Labour making an empty promise.
It does not say anything about Labour making any promises whatsoever.

I have no idea what the proposal by the mayors is about.
 
Last edited:

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
16,739
In theory yes, in practice no.

There will no desire amongst the leadership of the Labour party to spend money on such a project that will not bear any fruit for many years and will open them to endless attack lines.

Whatever money there is will be spenr on day to day spending increases such as doctor pay rises and maintaining the triple lock
 

YorkRailFan

On Moderation
Joined
6 Sep 2023
Messages
1,242
Location
York
In theory yes, in practice no.

There will no desire amongst the leadership of the Labour party to spend money on such a project that will not bear any fruit for many years and will open them to endless attack lines.

Whatever money there is will be spenr on day to day spending increases such as doctor pay rises and maintaining the triple lock
The likes of Starmer and Reeves will oppose it, but I do think that the Shadow Transport Secretary and Shadow Rail Minister will support it. Additionally, HS2 is popular among some of the Party Membership, my local Councillor was on Transport North the other day explaining the importance of HS2 to the North East.
 

southern442

Established Member
Joined
20 May 2013
Messages
2,197
Location
Surrey
I think generally cancelling HS2 was an unpopular move. The most Labour will commit to pre-election is a pause on selling off the land pending a review of the situation IMO. But I guess that'd be better than nothing.
 

A S Leib

Member
Joined
9 Sep 2018
Messages
780
I think generally cancelling HS2 was an unpopular move. The most Labour will commit to pre-election is a pause on selling off the land pending a review of the situation IMO. But I guess that'd be better than nothing.
According to YouGov, HS2 to Manchester was / is significantly more popular than only going as far as Birmingham.

(My own view is that it should go ahead in full whether it's popular or not; it's desperately needed, and how many people in Kent have switched from protesting HS1 construction to using it themselves?)
 

tspaul26

Established Member
Joined
9 Jun 2016
Messages
1,568
I have no idea what the proposal by the mayors is about.
In effect, to promote phases 2A and 2B independently of central government.

I got roped into drafting the initial (very high level) options paper at the back end of last year.
 

Pigeon

Member
Joined
8 Apr 2015
Messages
804
Gah. It's dead. Let it lie. Don't keep poking the corpse to see if you can make it twitch, just get on and rob its pockets.

There are numerous capacity proposals on smaller scales that are more realistic and more useful, and would have been much quicker to instantiate, but have been put on hold or cancelled pending the arrival of the pie in the sky additional capacity radiated by the magical field of a line that doesn't come anywhere near the place concerned (or goes straight past and ignores it). The most sensible thing to do now is to return to considering those smaller-scale projects. And perhaps selling off land intended for HS2 might help pay for them, or at least one might hope it would.
 

Topological

Member
Joined
20 Feb 2023
Messages
754
Location
Swansea
Labour could scrap tuition fees, but they won't.

Indeed Labour could do almost anything they like, but the reality is that the differentiation between the major parties in practice is small. Meanwhile, the country will carry on in almost exactly the same way it does now.

On the flip side, the Conservatives wanted to reduce crime and be seen as tough, yet 13 years later very little has changed. Every year there are new "policies" but the fundamental will to put more people in prison and spend the associated monies on policing and facilities just is not there.

HS2 may be something that would be really useful for the UK, and it may have a positive cost-benefit, but it is ultimately something that has been determined to be outside the achievable. Like crime, scrapping tuition fees, or any of the other things the parties like to talk about, Labour will just be hoping to be seen as slightly less negative against HS2 than the Conservatives.
 

The Planner

Veteran Member
Joined
15 Apr 2008
Messages
15,965
Gah. It's dead. Let it lie. Don't keep poking the corpse to see if you can make it twitch, just get on and rob its pockets.

There are numerous capacity proposals on smaller scales that are more realistic and more useful, and would have been much quicker to instantiate, but have been put on hold or cancelled pending the arrival of the pie in the sky additional capacity radiated by the magical field of a line that doesn't come anywhere near the place concerned (or goes straight past and ignores it). The most sensible thing to do now is to return to considering those smaller-scale projects. And perhaps selling off land intended for HS2 might help pay for them, or at least one might hope it would.
Which ones relieve the WCML?
 

D365

Veteran Member
Joined
29 Jun 2012
Messages
11,468
Gah. It's dead. Let it lie. Don't keep poking the corpse to see if you can make it twitch, just get on and rob its pockets.
What pockets? HS2 isn't a ready source of cash.
 

Tetchytyke

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Sep 2013
Messages
13,305
Location
Isle of Man
My own view is that it should go ahead in full whether it's popular or not; it's desperately needed, and how many people in Kent have switched from protesting HS1 construction to using it themselves?
Kentish people didn’t get a choice, as the “classic” expresses were deliberately slowed down and reduced in frequency.

My view is that HS2 should never have been started, it was always a solution looking for a problem and I’ve always expected it to become a white elephant. But now that we have started it we should finish it properly. Instead we get the worst of all worlds- an horrifically expensive white elephant, but a horrifically expensive white elephant that doesn’t even achieve the basics.
I think generally cancelling HS2 was an unpopular move.
I don’t. Starting HS2 was the mistake- thanks Boris.
 

Sorcerer

Member
Joined
20 May 2022
Messages
800
Location
Liverpool
Haven't read the article, but already the impression I get is that this is just another one of Labour's potential promises they won't fully commit to even if it's a sensible choice to make. HS2's full benefits cannot truly be reaped without the ability to fully complete the original project even if done at a later date. I wish that I could be more optimistic, but I fear nothing more than disappointment from the next Labour Government, so at the very least I am hoping for a pleasant surprise of Labour actually committing to HS2 and reforming our approach to building infrastructure so we can never make such a mess of a railway project ever again.
 

Technologist

Member
Joined
29 May 2018
Messages
112
Labour is not going to reinstate HS2, the project itself is not particularly popular and is associated (rightly or wrongly) with high costs, poor management, visible disruption and gold plating.

A proper highspeed rail plan is however possible but it has to be one Labour can own, I'd suggest that it should be pitched as against the two following minimum objectives.

1: There needs to be no "sticker shock" we can't have a £100-200 billion cost that people can point at for a specific project.
2: It can't all be funded by the treasury

Thus I'd suggest that the offer should be that every city of more than XXX,000 population will be served by high speed rail by a relatively nebulous point in time say 2060. Great British Railways/Network Rail should be responsible for the big plan and released capacity and new suburban railways should be built at the same time. The argument should be made at the top level of a 40 year goal with emphasis on the lack of a high speed rail network being one of the reasons why the UK is less productive that some of our peers despite being more business friendly.

The implementation should then be to give GBR/NR an arbitrary uplift of say £5-10 billion a year to spend of a rolling high speed rail programme. The other element of funding would be to fund it by capturing property value uplift, regional authorities would be given the powers to collect this value up lift and negotiations between these regional authorities and GBR would determine where and when the project would get built.

The legislative element would be to try to codify the top level goals into statutory duties for the various bodies to build these railway lines. Hence there isn't a big single project to cancel or tinker with and central government wouldn't even control all the funding. Prominent politicians with local support could also scream at them if they attempt to turn down funding.

Finally planning needs some reform, one of the most basic reforms would be one of "standing". Certain items shouldn't be judicable, there should be a procedure to deal with minor issues in a manner which doesn't affect the project, legal challenges should also be limited to those who meaningfully lose out, who should be compensated much more directly than they are today.

So the call to action is go talk to your local MP or likely future MP, suggest a plan that covers the two major points above, don't just say bring back HS2.

The only exception to that is HS2 to Crewe which probably can be brought back with the argument that its relatively cheap and the cancellation was ill thought out.
 

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
2,698
I don’t. Starting HS2 was the mistake- thanks Boris.
Surely starting HS2 falls under Brown or Cameron’s remit? Or possibly May, the first legislation was passed during her premiership and the contracts signed. The project was a decade old before Boris.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
30,840
Location
Scotland
The implementation should then be to give GBR/NR an arbitrary uplift of say £5-10 billion a year to spend of a rolling high speed rail programme.
Unless you're building completely new lines on segregated alignments, you'll end up spending twice as much and taking three times as long.

Look at the West Coast modernisation programme or the GWML upgrades, or Crossrail, or... for examples.
 

Falcon1200

Established Member
Joined
14 Jun 2021
Messages
3,660
Location
Neilston, East Renfrewshire
Unless you're building completely new lines on segregated alignments, you'll end up spending twice as much and taking three times as long.

Indeed, and after the West Coast Route Modernisation all we have still is an extremely congested 125mph railway.

What Labour should do is retain all property purchased and commit to completing HS2 as soon as conditions allow.
 

tspaul26

Established Member
Joined
9 Jun 2016
Messages
1,568
The implementation should then be to give GBR/NR an arbitrary uplift of say £5-10 billion a year to spend of a rolling high speed rail programme.
So, more than HS2 is getting then. How does this deal with perceived ‘high costs’?
The other element of funding would be to fund it by capturing property value uplift
How?
regional authorities
Which?
given the powers to collect this value up lift
How and when would this be done?
negotiations between these regional authorities and GBR
And if they can’t agree who decides?
determine where and when the project would get built.
How would these schemes be consented? Who would decide that?
The legislative element would be to try to codify the top level goals into statutory duties for the various bodies to build these railway lines.
And how would these be enforced?
Hence there isn't a big single project to cancel or tinker with and central government wouldn't even control all the funding.
No, there are lots of projects that can be cancelled or tinkered with - and by far more meddlers than today.
Prominent politicians with local support could also scream at them if they attempt to turn down funding.
Much like they do now, then.
Finally planning needs some reform, one of the most basic reforms would be one of "standing".
Specifically?
Certain items shouldn't be judicable
What and why?
there should be a procedure to deal with minor issues in a manner which doesn't affect the project
How?
legal challenges should also be limited to those who meaningfully lose out
Who are these people?
who should be compensated much more directly than they are today
Today they can fill out a one page form and submit a compensation claim to the relevant undertaker. The compensation is then either agreed between them or determined by the Lands Tribunal.

How would this be made more ‘direct’?
 

Technologist

Member
Joined
29 May 2018
Messages
112
Unless you're building completely new lines on segregated alignments, you'll end up spending twice as much and taking three times as long.

Look at the West Coast modernisation programme or the GWML upgrades, or Crossrail, or... for examples.
To be clear I would give the uplift to GBR/Network Rail along with the legal obligation to deliver high speed rail to all cities over a certain population threshold. They would be responsible for the integrated plan and how to chunk it up into separate projects. I would imagine that they would mostly use new lines.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
30,840
Location
Scotland
To be clear I would give the uplift to GBR/Network Rail along with the legal obligation to deliver high speed rail to all cities over a certain population threshold. They would be responsible for the integrated plan and how to chunk it up into separate projects. I would imagine that they would mostly use new lines.
And how would a multitude of small projects be more efficient than focusing resources and attention on one large project at a time?
 

Kite159

Veteran Member
Joined
27 Jan 2014
Messages
19,269
Location
West of Andover
What will most likely happen is Labour will set up a committee to look into it and that is the last you will hear about it until 4 years later when the committee publishes a report based on what the current leader thinks
 

YorkRailFan

On Moderation
Joined
6 Sep 2023
Messages
1,242
Location
York
What will most likely happen is Labour will set up a committee to look into it and that is the last you will hear about it until 4 years later when the committee publishes a report based on what the current leader thinks
Haven't they already sort of done that with the committee lead by a former Siemens executive?
 

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
16,739
I don’t. Starting HS2 was the mistake- thanks Boris.
HS2 was a Labour project that was politically impossible to abandon even if the Coalition or Conservative governments had wanted to, which they didn't.

This project hasn't failed because of the politicians, the railway industry is far more to blame.

The project had a schizophrenic approach, terrible project management and a scheme with far too many moving parts to succeed.
 

Technologist

Member
Joined
29 May 2018
Messages
112
So, more than HS2 is getting then. How does this deal with perceived ‘high costs’?

How?

Which?

How and when would this be done?

And if they can’t agree who decides?

How would these schemes be consented? Who would decide that?

And how would these be enforced?

No, there are lots of projects that can be cancelled or tinkered with - and by far more meddlers than today.

Much like they do now, then.

Specifically?

What and why?

How?

Who are these people?

Today they can fill out a one page form and submit a compensation claim to the relevant undertaker. The compensation is then either agreed between them or determined by the Lands Tribunal.

How would this be made more ‘direct’?
You sound like a right laugh....

The point is that HS2 was a single grand project which delivered a very expensive but limited piece of infrastructure, everyone could see that they were paying a lot of money for and it wasn't obvious that they were going to get anything out of it. More than half of it was cancelled without consultation by a single stroke of a pen. The solution to what to do with HS2 isn't just to say bring it back.

Framing the project as a long term vision means that most people can see that their area will get something out of it at some point in time. 0.5% of central government spending until the project is finished is also not particularly scary. The term for all this is constructive ambiguity. Set an overall strategic direction, set up or modify bodies to deliver it and create a legal obligation for this to happen. There are plenty of examples of government legislation which create obligations for bodies to do something but do not lay out out a project or provide budget.

What you are describing is the consultation process, it takes hundreds of participants and thousands of hours of work. Metro mayor's would be a good place to put responsibility to work with GBR/NR to make things happen they'd need new powers to do it but again I think there's some level of impetus to give them those powers.

There are plenty of methods to find railways by capturing land value uplift. Everything from direct land grants, to leavies on business rates to municipal borrowing against future tax take. Cross Rail was partially funded by London businesses so it has been done recently.

The key bit around capturing land value uplift is that it partially deals with the political problems of funding railway building purely with Treasury money. Those who benefit more provide more of the funds, again there is no need to be prescriptive as to what method is used to capture the value, the local authorities could decide themselves and the more successful they are in cofunding the project could be part of the decision as to which parts of the plan are completed first and how fast the project goes.

It also means that at the start of the project you can be creatively ambiguous because we don't know how long the plan will take to finish because we don't know how much the local authorities are going to put in and what complimentary things they are going to do such as transit hubs and property development around the stations.
And how would a multitude of small projects be more efficient than focusing resources and attention on one large project at a time?
That's not the way to think about it, a better way to think about it is a "rolling programme". So rather than big projects providing famine and feast there would always be someone building a piece of high speed rail, a station, a substation etc.

As a result the organisation would get very good at it. Contractors could invest in skills and in capital equipment that would take years to payoff rather than just throwing hastily trained labour at problems. More items could procured as minimum change variations or exact copies of existing designs rather than reinventing the wheel every time when the design team moves on to other projects.

Ultimately there is massive evidence across multiple industries that rolling programs are more efficient than mega projects every time.


The UKs motorways were built in a single generation as a rolling programme using both central and local authority planning and engineering capabilities.
 
Last edited:

tspaul26

Established Member
Joined
9 Jun 2016
Messages
1,568
You sound like a right laugh....
[SNIP]

In other words, you’re proposing something that would - you say - be ‘better’, but can’t or won’t answer basic questions about it.

And as the proposer it is for you to make good your case.
 

Technologist

Member
Joined
29 May 2018
Messages
112
[SNIP]

In other words, you’re proposing something that would - you say - be ‘better’, but can’t or won’t answer basic questions about it.

And as the proposer it is for you to make good your case.
You're missing the major points and ploughing into details.

The principle bit of evidence is that HS2 hasn't succeeded, it was expensive and it's been functionally cancelled.

It wasn't under pinned by a proper vision at the top level. Nobody does a cost benefit of the NHS, pensions, schools. A massive majority thinks we should have them, there are arguments about how much to spend and how to do it but not that in principle we should have them.

The vision needs to be that every large population centre is connected to a reliable high speed rail service which is much faster than driving and that every large city region needs to have enough public transit options of a comparable quality to those available in London both these objectives are complementary.

Organisations capable of delivering that at a regional and national level need to be set up and given the powers to do that.

The funding needs to come from multiple places (national and regional) including some from the private sector. Decades ago defence planners realised that if they made their projects pan national they were much more difficult to cancel, rail needs to learn this lesson.

The other key bit is the joined up thinking between the project objectives and the improvements to local government in terms of what their powers are and how they are funded. Again it's a vision and systems approach rather than a mega project with everything else being left as it was.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
29,214
I’d have a fiver on 2a being reinstated, as there‘s no other realisitic proposals for that section that can provide sufficient capacity. Then I’d have a ton on the route of 2b being used as the NPR route from Manchester towards Liverpool. And that leaves a gap of less than 20 miles…
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
30,840
Location
Scotland
Ultimately there is massive evidence across multiple industries that rolling programs are more efficient than mega projects every time.
Only when there's a famine between the feasts as that's what causes the loss of skills. The most efficient use of capital is a rolling programme of large projects.
 

Technologist

Member
Joined
29 May 2018
Messages
112
Only when there's a famine between the feasts as that's what causes the loss of skills. The most efficient use of capital is a rolling programme of large projects.

What is best is business as usual projects. Only when the size of the project isn't excessive to the degree it becomes a mega project. At which point you start seeing negative economies of scale as the complexity goes up.

I'd suggest that the optimum is probably 2-5 high speed rail network projects going at any one point in time. The projects should probably last about 5 years which would probably mean an optimum sized project is around £5 billion assuming an annual spend of £5-10 billion.

This would be about in line with what the MOD does with major defence projects. Again the MOD tends to do best when it procures defined systems rather than attempting to buy an army all at once like HS2.
 

Elecman

Established Member
Joined
31 Dec 2013
Messages
2,905
Location
Lancashire
I’d have a fiver on 2a being reinstated, as there‘s no other realisitic proposals for that section that can provide sufficient capacity. Then I’d have a ton on the route of 2b being used as the NPR route from Manchester towards Liverpool. And that leaves a gap of less than 20 miles…
I would agree with you there certainly about 2a
 

Top