The earliest date given for any trains ordered as a result of DfTs current tenders is autumn 2027. With 19x deliveries wrapping up this year or early next, Aventras finished, and otherwise only small-ish orders for IETs in build at the moment (can't think of anything else off the top of my head), that seems one hell of a gap for UK manufacturers – most/all of 2025, all of 2026, and most of 2027. With Alstom gone, can anyone survive it?
-
Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!
Substantial gap in new train deliveries
- Thread starter Dan G
- Start date
The earliest date given for any trains ordered as a result of DfTs current tenders is autumn 2027. With 19x deliveries wrapping up this year or early next, Aventras finished, and otherwise only small-ish orders for IETs in build at the moment (can't think of anything else off the top of my head), that seems one hell of a gap for UK manufacturers – most/all of 2025, all of 2026, and most of 2027. With Alstom gone, can anyone survive it?
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R
RailUK Forums
scotraildriver
Established Member
- Joined
- 15 Jun 2009
- Messages
- 1,628
ScotRail need to be placing orders soon. 15x replacement, 318s,320s and probably 334s too. HSTs are on lease until 2030 but pressure exists to get them replaced.
This DfT letter is complete and utter piffle - they are not stating anything that is not already known, and they are advising the industry to see "export opportunities", what exactly do they think the industry does anyway?
I just can not believe how condescending, aloof and removed from reality they can be - it beggars belief !!
I just can not believe how condescending, aloof and removed from reality they can be - it beggars belief !!
Last edited by a moderator:
norbitonflyer
Established Member
There are the new DLR and Tyne & Wear trains, although those builds are well under way now.
themiller
Member
What about LNERs order for CAF trains?
Everyone, including the DfT, seem to have missed the main point which is that Derby Works and now Hitachi at Newton Aycliffe build trains completely from scratch.
I guess Siemens at Goole probably will eventually (but not to start with), but CAF at Newport only fit out bodies, which are built in Europe.
The actual construction skills and capability, especially at Derby, are going to be lost.
How can the DfT advise the industry "to seek export opportunities", when all the builders are now foreign companies anyway?
If an export order is received today, it will be 18 months to 2 years before any construction actually starts, all the thousands (millions?) of parts have to be designed, ordered and made before any serious construction can start; they can't just go down to the traction motor shop and buy a few over the counter, and some compressors, and how about a few seats - it is just not on.
Any order for new trains should have been placed two years ago, not in two years time - they are killing off the rolling stock construction industry in the UK.
I guess Siemens at Goole probably will eventually (but not to start with), but CAF at Newport only fit out bodies, which are built in Europe.
The actual construction skills and capability, especially at Derby, are going to be lost.
How can the DfT advise the industry "to seek export opportunities", when all the builders are now foreign companies anyway?
If an export order is received today, it will be 18 months to 2 years before any construction actually starts, all the thousands (millions?) of parts have to be designed, ordered and made before any serious construction can start; they can't just go down to the traction motor shop and buy a few over the counter, and some compressors, and how about a few seats - it is just not on.
Any order for new trains should have been placed two years ago, not in two years time - they are killing off the rolling stock construction industry in the UK.
Last edited by a moderator:
12LDA28C
Established Member
So from what I can fathom from your statement is that you believe rolling stock orders should have been placed by the DfT purely to keep UK train manufacturers busy, regardless of whether they actually had any customers for those trains at the time of order, is that correct?
cj_1985
Member
- Joined
- 6 Mar 2010
- Messages
- 711
There are areas stock has been required for years and the DfT has steadfastly refused to LET the TOCs order stock. Instead we're now in a situation where any planned orders are all going to be placed around the same time, for delivery in the same time window.
No TOCs/DfT is not responsible for keeping private companies busy or profitable, however they, under direction of the last 3 Conservative governments (and I'm not trying to turn this political) have cut investment where needed and have instead thrown money at Hitachi, wasting money on the IEP program for example. Trains that have cost substantially more than if ordered through a ROSCO
If the orders in a few years are brought forward, all it does is kick the problem forward a few years. At some point there will be a gap.
12LDA28C
Established Member
That's the way it works these days. A TOC can't order a new bog roll without it being signed off by the DfT.
Indeed, and that's the way it's always been.
Alstom haven't gone, Derby is mothballed until HS2 build starts or other work comes in. If Alstom keep Derby or reverts to the old plan of expanding Widnes for any new orders they win we shall see.
They have just expanded the build quantity at Goole from 50% to 80% of the Piccadilly fleet, so more work for the UK site.
Following years of constant orders and work, for Derby in particular, there's a return to normal in rolling stock orders and the manufacturers need to work around that. There's the Northern, Chiltern, GWR, TPE contracts in play, ScotRail may get round to tendering at some point and then there's future TfL orders so plenty of work on offer.
norbitonflyer
Established Member
No. It's a boom and bust cycle. Some, but NOT all, of the orders should have been made a couple of years ago. Now it's all under the control of one entity again (DfT), as it was when BR did all the procurement, it shouldn't require much in the way of arithmetic to determine how large the national fleet should be, and what the expected service life of a typical vehicle is, divide one number by the other to determine what the replacement rate should be, and tailor your manufacturing capacity to that number. But having six orders one year and none the next means having to build manufacturing capacity to meet the peak demand, and then have it sitting idle until the next bulge. Which is wasteful and expensive - you have to build and mainatin six production lines when you only need three.
Things would be a lot easier if there was more standardisation within the various types of trains.
Despite the regular criticism of the stock delivered from the IET programme, and the succeeding commercial orders of 80x units, there is at least a semblance of commonality between all of those Hitachi versions which goes some way to reducing the repeated refitting of the manufacturing lines.
That was also true through most of the Electrostar years, when the bodyshells were of the same basic construction. Even though there were various updates, e.g. the fitting of conventional windows compared with the original curtain glass strips of the early classes (up to 377/5) and the inevitable move from the original electronics control and comms system to the class 379/387 standard, sourcing parts and spares is far better than having a mixed fleet of (say) Electrostar/Civity/Desiro where the basic platform is completely different.
In BR days, the Mk1 EMU body was substantially common between SR, GER & LMR giving huge areas of parts commonality.
Tracing the SR EMU stock, there were whole generations of rolling stock running quite happily on EE507 motors, competing derivatives of which were also designed into the Mk1 OLE stock. There were similar commonalities with the '80s Mk3 designs, - same bodyshell construction, bogies and motors.
Last edited by a moderator:
Trainman40083
Member
Did I see that Alstom had won another order for monorail units? I guess the next UK to be placed will be for South Eastern, due to be let in December 2024.
cj_1985
Member
- Joined
- 6 Mar 2010
- Messages
- 711
And that's exactly the problem with the UK system... feast and famine. Instead of things being ordered in a staggered fashion rather than all in one go
I'm well aware that's how the UK system has worked for many years now. Simply making the point.
Yes, although without the most recent feast, Derby would have run out of orders some time ago. It has taken over three years to get 114 class 720s into service on Greater Anglia. Building them over five years, for example, would spread out building work, but wouldn't be helpful for the operator.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Nobody "builds" complete trains any more.
Derby and Newton Aycliffe import most of the components of their trains, even if they have the capability of constructing vehicle bodies on site.
Newport is entirely an assembly shop using mostly Spanish components (with German/Austrian motors).
All the manufacturers could produce the same train outside the UK, as Hitachi have demonstrated with the class 802 order.
Equally, manufacturers can give work to their UK sites for train orders overseas - it isn't just a UK business.
Refurbishment is an option in some cases rather than new-build.
Alstom is more than Derby, having the Widnes facility as well (currently refurbishing Pendolinos), as well as across Europe.
Privatisation means the government is not responsible for railway rolling stock, any more than it is for steel or telecoms.
DfT control and funding of the railway operators means it has a big say in when railway rolling stock, and what, is procured.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Yes, but is does not "own" the manufacturers or Roscos.
We go back to the dispute between the DfT and CMA about "fixing" the market.
The DfT has engineered the creation of four competing UK-based train manufacturers, but does not have the means/demand to keep them all operational.
Ultimately it's the delayed fallout from Covid and then inflation which has caused the crisis.
Yes, and many posters here seem to want the next orders to go a fifth competitor, something else the DfT isn't necessarily in a position to control.
Yes, and a desire to eek a bit more life out of current fleets. It isn't like the slam-door / TPWS / construction type / accessibility issues which have seen off other fleets, despite diesel traction and level boarding being things which could conceivably have that effect.
Last edited:
Mikey C
Established Member
- Joined
- 11 Feb 2013
- Messages
- 6,853
What will Widnes do when that work finishes?
You would expect Alstom to be favorites to win the XC 22* refurb work starting later this year, they also have the 458/4 work to complete.
YorkRailFan
On Moderation
For Cairo wasn't it?
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
There aren't many "old Alstom" fleets left to rework, although there's Scotrail's 334s I think.
But no doubt "new" Alstom could source work from across the present range, as an alternative to Derby.
Alstom also works with CAF and Hitachi (who don't have a repair/refurb facility) on fleet maintenance, so that might provide another source.
The 22x fleets are interesting being Bombardier-built but in Bruges, not at Derby.
D365
Veteran Member
- Joined
- 29 Jun 2012
- Messages
- 11,470
They were not built in Derby as ’Voyager’ was not an Adtranz product. But have spent a vast majority of their time based out of Etches Park and/or Central Rivers just down the road.
Weren't some built at Wakefield or am I imagining that?
I imagine Siemens will have a pipeline of the Piccadilly and then the Bakerloo Line trains although with other potential orders, TfL has the tram replacement procurement so I could envision the Siemens Avenio being built at Goole if they win that order.
I hope so; in the previous order droughts Derby made it through with very small export orders.