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Railway Industry Association - A new strategy for delivering a lower cost, higher performing net zero railway by 2050

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eldomtom2

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Probably of interest - of particular note is that the argument that nearly all services could be electrified via battery trains if just 66% of the network was electrified.

A new strategy for delivering a lower cost, higher performing net zero railway by 2050

A new strategy published today (11 April) by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) sets out a pathway to a lower cost, higher performing net zero railway by 2050.
www.riagb.org.uk www.riagb.org.uk
A new strategy published today (11 April) by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) sets out a pathway to a lower cost, higher performing net zero railway by 2050, whilst also showing how making rolling stock procurement decisions now can stave off the current threat to UK rolling stock manufacturing capability. The whole system blueprint maximises current Government infrastructure plans and sets out how a co-ordinated ‘track and train’ approach could deliver improved outcomes for passenger and freight users, taxpayers and the supply chain.


RIA’s rail strategy fast tracks benefits by focusing on opportunities for carbon reduction and air quality improvements in the short-term. It will also enhance performance by introducing newer and more reliable trains while achieving lower costs and greater economic benefits by reducing ‘boom and bust’ for the rail supply sector.


Key findings are:


  • Whilst Government plans will increase the proportion of the UK rail network which is electrified from 38% to 51% - and its recent commitment in March 2024 to this upper figure is welcome - RIA’s strategy identifies a further 15% of routes which if electrified would mean 100% of passenger services and 95% of freight services being decarbonised incrementally in the decades to 2050.
  • Around a third of the network does not need to be electrified and can be decarbonised now with battery trains. An order for a fleet of battery-electric trains should be accelerated as a matter of priority to bring forward benefits at no additional cost to the public purse.
  • Current uncertainty around future UK rail manufacturing capacity yet again highlights the need for a more consistent pipeline of work for infrastructure and rolling stock suppliers to support investment in skills and improve productivity.

Commenting on the plan, David Clarke, Technical Director at RIA, said: “Our analysis provides an ‘art of the possible’ strategy for the Government and the railway industry. Ordering a fleet of battery-electric trains, a strategic and a consistent approach to electrification and quick green wins on less intensively used routes can all help achieve a more efficient and low-carbon railway by 2050. Considering this as a ‘track and train’ strategy allows us to permanently lower the cost of running the railway.

“Recent RIA-commissioned research by Steer found that passenger numbers will grow between 37% and 97% by 2050, depending on future rail policy. So, it is vital that the Government now makes some decisions on infrastructure and rolling stock which will enable investors, rail planners and suppliers, as well as the wider rail economy, to deliver a better and more sustainable railway for passengers and taxpayers in the future.”






The full report is available here https://www.riagb.org.uk/ALCHPNZRW24
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CarrotPie

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eldomtom2 said:
Probably of interest - of particular note is that the argument that nearly all services could be electrified via battery trains if just 66% of the network was electrified.

A new strategy for delivering a lower cost, higher performing net zero railway by 2050

A new strategy published today (11 April) by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) sets out a pathway to a lower cost, higher performing net zero railway by 2050.
www.riagb.org.uk www.riagb.org.uk
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All services could use battery trains if we're prepared to through enough money at it!
 
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may032

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eldomtom2 said:
Probably of interest - of particular note is that the argument that nearly all services could be electrified via battery trains if just 66% of the network was electrified.

A new strategy for delivering a lower cost, higher performing net zero railway by 2050

A new strategy published today (11 April) by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) sets out a pathway to a lower cost, higher performing net zero railway by 2050.
www.riagb.org.uk www.riagb.org.uk
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Very interesting, thanks for sharing. A large BEMU order for services on the 34% of lines that would likely never be electrified seems like a no-brainer if we’re serious about decarbonisation.
 
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Class 317

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CarrotPie said:
All services could use battery trains if we're prepared to through enough money at it!
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Use of battery trains would lower infrastructure investment needed and hence costs associated with this. They also have far lower operating costs than diesels.

may032 said:
Very interesting, thanks for sharing. A large BEMU order for services on the 34% of lines that would likely never be electrified seems like a no-brainer if we’re serious about decarbonisation.
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It would make so much sense to set up a sensible rolling stock cascade so that new DMU's and bi mode trains are not required.

A rolling programme of small scale electrification should allow significant service groups to transfer to BEMU's relatively quickly. This would particularly apply where suitable electrification only requires small scale works like for example creating a catenary island at one end of a route where existing OHLE already exists at one end of the route.
 
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YorkRailFan

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A lower cost, higher performing net zero railway

www.riagb.org.uk www.riagb.org.uk
Empower a cross industry group to further develop and test the RIA strategy and confirm the minimum additional electrification to deliver net zero for passengers and freight by 2050. This ‘rail-plan’ should be published to provide clarity to railway planners and investors.
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More integration is great.
Urgently convert current and expected GB rolling stock opportunities identified by DfT into orders to address current order book gap.
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In the short term, converting older stock (like D Stock to the 230s) to battery trains is a good solution to lower emissions before then getting new, battery stock in
Given their value as an interim carbon reduction measure, it is recommended DfT reconsider the policy that rail should not be prioritised for the use of alternative fuels and consider a subsidy to achieve cost parity with diesel fuel.
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Yes, rail is vital to decarbonising transport and is relatively easy to do (far easier than aircraft).
The rail reform process should create a role for Great British Railways to consider the long-term rolling stock needs of the network and the sustainability of the supply chain, creating a strategy, including for example framework orders, with the objective to intelligently smooth the pipeline.
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More integration, which is great and needed.
Empower GBRTT to work with industry to prepare and GBR to deliver a strategy which will:
● Deliver a lower cost, higher performing, net zero railway for passenger and freight by 2050 (Section 3.5 and Recommendation 2)
● Adopt an agile approach to track and train system thinking to intelligently smooth fleet in response to demand growth
● Adopt a portfolio rather than project by project approach.
● Balance when making decisions:
– Cumulative carbon reduction and air quality improvement for the earliest possible environmental and health benefits (Section 3.7), facilitated by interim solutions including, but not limited to, alternative fuels and rolling stock cascade.
– A whole system / whole life TOTEX evaluation (Section 3.9)
– Wider economic and social benefits including the sustainability of the supply chain and the potential to use private finance to improve affordability.
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Good, really like the recommendations in this report, but I fear that it will fall on deaf ears in the DFT and Treasury.
 
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Shaw S Hunter

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YorkRailFan said:
Good, really like the recommendations in this report, but I fear that it will fall on deaf ears in the DFT and Treasury.
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Given the state of opinion polls this report is as much for the attention of the Labour Party as it is for current government decision makers. While on here we regularly slate both HMT and DfT for their apparent attitude to railways after 14 years of Tory led policy it would hardly be surprising if the relevant civil servants would reluctant to do anything to rock the boat. My suspicion is that quite a few of them would be very happy to take a different approach given the chance.
 
HSTEd

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So in summary RIA demands billions of additional public money on vast numbers of additional electrification projects.

They even use extraordinarily low cost estimates for electrification to make it look like a sensible plan
RIA estimate this requires an average of c345 single track kilometres (stk) to be completed per annum into the 2030’s. This would cost between £345m and £865m per annum based on the range of unit rates assumed in the TDNS in 2020
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The TDNS was overly optimistic in 2020, its borderline delusional now. A more likely cost based on the current costs oof projects will be more like £1.5bn per annum

Furthermore, it is possible that power supplies and charging infrastructure could be ‘bundled’ with the associated rolling stock and privately financed. There is current cross-industry work to establish suitable structures, and this should be accelerated.
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The proposal then decides to propose a PFI, and arbitrarily select a battery train range of 60-80km, because if they use any longer the amount of electrification required falls precipitously, as shown on page 15/32.
We build electric cars with five times that range today, there is no reason we can't build battery units with hundreds of kilometres of range.

Indeed a D-stock battery conversion managed 138km on 45% of its battery.

EDIT:
To clarify my point, it reads like a report using assumptions chosen to achieve the desired result of "give our members many billions more in electrification contracts". Plus massive new orders of rolling stock to avoid facing the oversupply of production capacity for a few more years.
 
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may032

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HSTEd said:
So in summary RIA demands billions of additional public money on vast numbers of additional electrification projects.

And look, they even use extraordinarily low cost estimates for electrification to make it look like a sensible plan


The TDNS was overly optimistic in 2020, its borderline delusional now. A more likely cost based on the current costs oof projects will be more like £1.5bn per annum


The proposal then decides to propose a PFI, and arbitrarily select a battery train range of 60-80km, because if they use any longer the amount of electrification required falls precipitously, as shown on page 15/32.
We build electric cars with five times that range today, there is no reason we can't build battery units with hundreds of kilometres of range.

Indeed a D-stock battery conversion managed 138km on 45% of its battery.
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What point are you trying to make here?

Even with higher per km electrification costs and less conservative battery range estimates, the strategy is still a good one in principle. Clearly no actual decisions are going to be made off the back of this document, but it makes a compelling case for further consideration.
 
HSTEd

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may032 said:
What point are you trying to make here?

Even with higher per km electrification costs and less conservative battery range estimates, the strategy is still a good one in principle. Clearly no actual decisions are going to be made off the back of this document, but it makes a compelling case for further consideration.
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The strategy is based around an explicit assumption that electrification costs can be reduced substantially. Furthermore it assumes that large scale electrification (doubling the electrified mileage!) is a sensible proposition given what we know about battery train performance and electrification cost.

Neither of those assumptions appears well substantiated, the report then proceeds to have a tag line about a lower cost railway, when it's central position is that billions more should be spent.
It even demands a subsidy for alternative fuels (ie. Bionic duckweed's revenge!) to counter the low cost of the railway's supply of functionally untaxed diesel!

Overall the report gives the strong impression of being engineered to give the desired result of proposing mass electrification.

Just like the RIAs last report that demanded a decade of funding for electrification, justified with vague promises that they might be able to reduce costs.

It appears wildly out of step with the railways political position today, and the odd assumptions it makes do not help it make a convincing case.
 
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yorksrob

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It's not unreasonable to assume that a rolling electrification programme would lead to lower unit costs.
 
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fishwomp

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A new strategy published today (11 April) by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) sets out a pathway to a lower cost, higher performing net zero railway by 2050...
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Perhaps the industry could try and produce a lower cost railway by 2027, not a pathway for one in 2050... Pointless tosh, there is a bigger problem right in front of them
 
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zwk500

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Bletchleyite said:
Mass electrification IS a good plan. Why aren't we behind this?
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The headline strategy is brilliant. The devil is in the detail, as ever. Electrify where you can, batteries for as much of the rest of what you can't do as possible and only then hydrogen/diesel is a very sound industry plan. It's perhaps not surprising the RIA aren't the first ones to suggest it (as this isn't really anything new from the TDNS at policy level), given the industry would love to have an all-electric railway if it could.

Big questions are first targets and phasings, as well as things like cascades and when the balance between service changes driving infrastructure weighs in favour of infrastructure determining service provision.

But as mentioned, basic premise of the RIA strategy is very, very good.
 
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SynthD

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Bimodes and Bemus are typically heavier than solely diesel or electric units. There are some costs in supporting that weight.

It seems to be implied that the success of batteries reduces the need for electrification. Has that been studied? How much electrification is realistically needed, with a hefty safety margin, for most current diesel services to become battery powered?
 
yorksrob

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SynthD said:
It seems to be implied that the success of batteries reduces the need for electrification. Has that been studied?
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If it didn't, the industry would at least be in a position to keep on electrifying.
 
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zwk500

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SynthD said:
Bimodes and Bemus are typically heavier than solely diesel or electric units. There are some costs in supporting that weight.

It seems to be implied that the success of batteries reduces the need for electrification. Has that been studied? How much electrification is realistically needed, with a hefty safety margin, for most current diesel services to become battery powered?
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As ever the answer is 'it depends'. There are some areas where you will want pure EMUs to cover the service (like suburban metro services) even if BEMUs could do the job, and on longer routes you might need electrified 'islands' or fast-charge stations.

However the RIA figure of 66% makes a lot of sense in terms of network structures and how many branches would need wires vs batteries and so on. Given we're still way below 40% of the network, there's need for wires yet.
 
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mike57

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If the proposal is go for a large scale electrification and BEMUs to fill in the gaps, then surely instead of taking each route on its own and trying to make a case we should be looking at every route and arriving at a sensible national approach. Some lines, e.g. Far North, Heart of Wales would definitely not be updated, if the there were large scale replacement of diesel units on other routes then these could be cascaded, and their contributions to emmisions is miniscule, these routes would remain diesel for the time being, and everything else goes (B)EMU. That becomes the end point, no more hand wringing then about the business cases for specific routes

Then look at train miles converted from diesel to electric for each line or part of line, and what needs to be electrified to echeive the goal of (B)EMU operation, and pick the biggest winners and go for them first, taking into account other difficulties as well.

Use an in-house team who can then have continuity of work and a move away from the current administration heavy current approach using outside contractor. Because they are in house short fill in schemes might feature to start with to gain some quick wins.

The problem with this approach it would take several political cycles to complete, but would get away from the current start stop approach, and would hopefully reduce costs as well.
 
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Trainbike46

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Bletchleyite said:
Mass electrification IS a good plan. Why aren't we behind this?
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Agreed, it is a good idea. I'd write to my MP, but she can't really do anything about this (West Lothian protocol and all)

I actually thought that it recommended a lot less electrification than the TDNS - which was effectively the last time an attempt was made to figure out for where electrification and battery units make sense. I thought 2/3 electrified was low, but I guess we do have a lot of quiet branch lines in this country

zwk500 said:
The headline strategy is brilliant. The devil is in the detail, as ever. Electrify where you can, batteries for as much of the rest of what you can't do as possible and only then hydrogen/diesel is a very sound industry plan. It's perhaps not surprising the RIA aren't the first ones to suggest it (as this isn't really anything new from the TDNS at policy level), given the industry would love to have an all-electric railway if it could.

Big questions are first targets and phasings, as well as things like cascades and when the balance between service changes driving infrastructure weighs in favour of infrastructure determining service provision.

But as mentioned, basic premise of the RIA strategy is very, very good.
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The regional strategies, e.g. RIA North prioritisation of routes make an attempt using different methods to create a priority list

www.railwaygazette.com

Electrification priorities in northern England

UK: The Railway Industry Association North has published Greener, Faster, Better, setting out which routes in northern England should be prioritised for electrification and where battery or hydrogen could be appropriate. This was one of the key recommendations of RIA North's previous Building...
www.railwaygazette.com www.railwaygazette.com
 
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