2022 Conservative Leadership Election - Liz Truss chosen as party leader (and subsequent reshuffle)

[dosxuk]

Interesting poll result from Survation released this morning - comparing the normal "if there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for" question with a special one done with the leaders named, using Liz Truss as the leader.

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1566726690050646018

In the normal one, results were

CON 33%
LAB 43%

Once you add Liz's name to the options, they got

CON 29% (-4.5)
LAB 46% (+3)

Normal poll disclaimers apply, other sources are available, results may go up as well as down, etc. Full results / methodology / explanations are available from the Twitter link.

But it's interesting to see quite how many people were willing to abandon the Tories if Liz was suggested as leader. If looks like the theory that she's the leader of choice for a notable number of Tory supporters, but not in favour with the wider electorate has some bones to it.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Yet they impose targets on trade unions for ballot results!

There's a rather obvious difference between an election for a leader, where one person *HAS* to win, and therefore you are obviously going to pick whoever gets the majority of votes so a target would make no sense, and on the other hand a ballot where you are voting on whether or not you wish to cause (possibly severe) disruption to other people's lives in pursuit of your own demands. It doesn't at all seem unreasonable to expect a minimum target for a 'yes' vote in that kind of ballot.

 

[Lost property]

Presumably the same applies to any incumbent of No 10, so Labour leaders have also benefitted in the past?

Correct, up to a point. The point being no Labour Gov't has so generously inflated the profits of a select few chums as Sunak did...

Apparently, our glorious new PM also praised Boris for being "known from Kiev to Carlisle "....geography has never been her strong point (see the slight confusion between the Baltic and the Black Sea for example)and quite why she chose Carlisle as a location only she knows...well there again, she probably doesn't and thought Kiev and Carlisle sounded the same when pronounced with a "K" so Carlisle would do.

 

[Gloster]

Correct, up to a point. The point being no Labour Gov't has so generously inflated the profits of a select few chums as Sunak did...

Apparently, our glorious new PM also praised Boris for being "known from Kiev to Carlisle "....geography has never been her strong point (see the slight confusion between the Baltic and the Black Sea for example)and quite why she chose Carlisle as a location only she knows...well there again, she probably doesn't and thought Kiev and Carlisle sounded the same when pronounced with a "K" so Carlisle would do.

Or perhaps she realised that Scotland is the other side of Carlisle and there may be some doubts about his popularity there. Though that does require a level of self-knowledge above and beyond what she has so far shown.

 

[nw1]

Or perhaps she realised that Scotland is the other side of Carlisle and there may be some doubts about his popularity there. Though that does require a level of self-knowledge above and beyond what she has so far shown.

Carlisle is notable as a seat that was Labour until 2010 (including the Thatcher era) but has been true-blue ever since. Wonder if that's anything to do with it?

 

[SteveM70]

The really interesting thing for me is that 18% of the people who could be bothered to pay to join the Conservative party chose not to vote.

 

[eMeS]

The really interesting thing for me is that 18% of the people who could be bothered to pay to join the Conservative party chose not to vote.

Perhaps they were so rich that they could go on holiday for a long time, and well away from our media!

 

[SteveM70]

Perhaps they were so rich that they could go on holiday for a long time, and well away from our media!

You’d expect them to get the butler to fill it in for them. Or use the VIP hotline if it’s still left over from covid

 

[Typhoon]

Perhaps they were so rich that they could go on holiday for a long time, and well away from our media!

Or perhaps they were hoping for a late change of heart, and Johnson would be added to the ballot.

Even, they were so disgusted with the choice they were offered they opted out.

 

[david1212]

The really interesting thing for me is that 18% of the people who could be bothered to pay to join the Conservative party chose not to vote.

Could not be bothered or for whatever reason(s) could not support either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak.

Remember there are those who feel that despite all the revelations this year Boris should still be PM.

OK a small group but I know nobody who thinks Boris should still be PM. Most think he left it far too long to resign.

Interesting poll result from Survation released this morning - comparing the normal "if there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for" question with a special one done with the leaders named, using Liz Truss as the leader.

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1566726690050646018

In the normal one, results were

CON 33%
LAB 43%

Once you add Liz's name to the options, they got

CON 29% (-4.5)
LAB 46% (+3)

Normal poll disclaimers apply, other sources are available, results may go up as well as down, etc. Full results / methodology / explanations are available from the Twitter link.

But it's interesting to see quite how many people were willing to abandon the Tories if Liz was suggested as leader. If looks like the theory that she's the leader of choice for a notable number of Tory supporters, but not in favour with the wider electorate has some bones to it.

Regardless by choice Liz Truss does not want by choice to call an early General Election
Remember Teresa May " I am calling a general election now to get a larger majority " but ended up having to get the DUP into bed to scrape over the line. A major misjudgement of the views of the public.

 

[jfollows]

Respectable result for Sunak TBH, Truss failing to even meet the 60% benchmark.

I think my theory was correct that most Truss supporters voted straight away and undecideds broke more for Sunak later on.

BBC just observed that Liz Truss got a lower percentage of the vote than Boris Johnson, David Cameron and Ian Duncan-Smith did. However I'm not sure if the electorate and voting rules were always the same. However it's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

 

[Lost property]

Or perhaps she realised that Scotland is the other side of Carlisle and there may be some doubts about his popularity there. Though that does require a level of self-knowledge above and beyond what she has so far shown.

Given the reception she and Sunak received, even she should be aware Boris, herself and her party aren't what you would call top of peoples Christmas card list.

However, depends on the cloud cover of course, she can have a quick look down, going both ways, to make sure she now knows where Carlisle is...I assume she and Boris won't be traveling overnight on a Megabus from Victoria or risking a train

 

[JamesT]

BBC just observed that Liz Truss got a lower percentage of the vote than Boris Johnson, David Cameron and Ian Duncan-Smith did. However I'm not sure if the electorate and voting rules were always the same. However it's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Looks like all three were done under essentially the same system as now, with MPs repeatedly voting until two are left to put to the membership.
I'm not sure quite what to read into her getting a lower percentage of the final vote. Maybe it says more about the qualities of Sunak that he appealed to a larger proportion of the party than Jeremy Hunt, David Davis, or Kenneth Clarke?

 

[Typhoon]

Looks like all three were done under essentially the same system as now, with MPs repeatedly voting until two are left to put to the membership.
I'm not sure quite what to read into her getting a lower percentage of the final vote. Maybe it says more about the qualities of Sunak that he appealed to a larger proportion of the party than Jeremy Hunt, David Davis, or Kenneth Clarke?

Papers like the Mail were heavily pushing Truss. It could be that they have less influence than they thought, and some of us were caught up in Truss-fever.

It could also be that some members were secretly happy that Johnson had gone and were willing to accept Sunak's part in his downfall when the perceived wisdom was that he had back-stabbed Johnson (in a rather less brutal and sustained manner than Johnson had done to May) so shouldn't succeed him

I would also say that people voted for Cameron and Johnson because they thought it would lead to a brighter future - they offered something different, Truss doesn't appear to.

 

[Busaholic]

Or perhaps they were hoping for a late change of heart, and Johnson would be added to the ballot.

Even, they were so disgusted with the choice they were offered they opted out.

Alternative view - many filled ballot papers still not delivered to the Tory counters?! It'd be interesting to know what percentage of those delayed were votes for Liz Trump: I suspect less than 57%, maybe less than 50%, as Sunak seemed to be gaining ground on her towards the end.

Did anyone watch the result 'live' on TV? When she made her pathetic and faltering speech (no autocue!) she spent a full five seconds appearing to stare Sunak down unblinking (he was presumably taking her gaze in the same way) and when the camera switched back to the applauding audience Sunak seemed to have stopped clapping and only recommenced in a desultory way when he realised. Played it back on i-player at the time just to make sure.

Alternative view - many filled ballot papers still not delivered to the Tory counters?! It'd be interesting to know what percentage of those delayed were votes for Liz Trump: I suspect less than 57%, maybe less than 50%, as Sunak seemed to be gaining ground on her towards the end.

Did anyone watch the result 'live' on TV? When she made her pathetic and faltering speech (no autocue!) she spent a full five seconds appearing to stare Sunak down unblinking (he was presumably taking her gaze in the same way) and when the camera switched back to the applauding audience Sunak seemed to have stopped clapping and only recommenced in a desultory way when he realised. Played it back on i-player at the time just to make sure.

 

[jfollows]

Did anyone watch the result 'live' on TV? When she made her pathetic and faltering speech (no autocue!) she spent a full five seconds appearing to stare Sunak down unblinking (he was presumably taking her gaze in the same way) and when the camera switched back to the applauding audience Sunak seemed to have stopped clapping and only recommenced in a desultory way when he realised. Played it back on i-player at the time just to make sure.

Sunak's being coy in his latest interview, but I don't blame him. He doesn't want to be part of Liz Truss's government, he's happy to be a good Tory MP and say that he will support her, and he won't say that he won't accept a government post if one is offered because he knows it won't be, he doesn't want one, but it would look bad to say that he'd refuse if asked.
Anyway, he can support her objectives, just not her methods, which he's already called out as misguided. He'd be happy if her policies turn out well, it's just that he doesn't think they will, and I'm with him on this thought.

 

[Busaholic]

Sunak's being coy in his latest interview, but I don't blame him. He doesn't want to be part of Liz Truss's government, he's happy to be a good Tory MP and say that he will support her, and he won't say that he won't accept a government post if one is offered because he knows it won't be, he doesn't want one, but it would look bad to say that he'd refuse if asked.
Anyway, he can support her objectives, just not her methods, which he's already called out as misguided. He'd be happy if her policies turn out well, it's just that he doesn't think they will, and I'm with him on this thought.

I think he would be offered 'something' so long as he hadn't told her in advance he wasn't prepared to accept anything offered. It's what might be offered that would be interesting - Northern Ireland?! She has to go through the motions of appearing to be fair, even though no-one's fooled by it.

 

[jfollows]

Priti Patel has resigned, knowing she’d be sacked anyway.

 

[Lost property]

I think he would be offered 'something' so long as he hadn't told her in advance he wasn't prepared to accept anything offered. It's what might be offered that would be interesting - Northern Ireland?! She has to go through the motions of appearing to be fair, even though no-one's fooled by it.

" Dear Goldman-Sachs"...is my former office empty ?...love, Rishi "

 

[jfollows]

Priti Patel has resigned, knowing she’d be sacked anyway.

Her replacement will almost certainly be Suella Braverman, and I have to say that I don't know which of the two I dislike more. Certainly no improvement. They both appear to me to be stupid people in the sense of personal image and personality, yes they may have gone to good universities but that doesn't make you clever, it just means you can pass exams at a particular point in your life.

The BBC keeps playing the clip of Liz Truss saying "we import two thirds of our cheese. That is a disgrace" which I remember hearing about before but didn't actually see, it's brilliantly bonkers!

 

[WatcherZero]

The really interesting thing for me is that 18% of the people who could be bothered to pay to join the Conservative party chose not to vote.

Shows the remaining life expectancy of the Conservative party members, would hate to have seen how many were still alive after a 12 campaign rather than just 3 of this party election.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Her replacement will almost certainly be Suella Braverman, and I have to say that I don't know which of the two I dislike more. Certainly no improvement. They both appear to me to be stupid people in the sense of personal image and personality, yes they may have gone to good universities but that doesn't make you clever, it just means you can pass exams at a particular point in your life.

Couldn't agree more. Two fine examples of modern day Tory, completely and utterly lacking in any compassion for people less fortunate than themselves.

 

[jfollows]

Couldn't agree more. Two fine examples of modern day Tory, completely and utterly lacking in any compassion for people less fortunate than themselves.

Suella Braverman - law at Queens' College, Cambridge. Priti Patel - more surprisingly Economics at Keele followed by postgraduate studies in British government and politics at the University of Essex. At least neither of them were PPE/Oxford.

Someone called Nigel Adams also resigned from the government, but I have to admit that I'd never heard of him and I don't know what he did - Minister of State without Portfolio at the Cabinet Office, apparently, which is about the best description of a non-job I've heard for some while. MP for Selby & Ainsty, apparently.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Suella Braverman - law at Queens' College, Cambridge. Priti Patel - more surprisingly Economics at Keele followed by postgraduate studies in British government and politics at the University of Essex. At least neither of them were PPE/Oxford.

Someone called Nigel Adams also resigned from the government, but I have to admit that I'd never heard of him and I don't know what he did - Minister of State without Portfolio at the Cabinet Office, apparently, which is about the best description of a non-job I've heard for some while. MP for Selby & Ainsty, apparently.

A quick check of Wikipedia reveals him to be a Johnson loyalist. From details in that article I find it impossible to avoid concluding that he is easily bought. He'd already announced in April that he will be standing down at the next GE - he won't be missed.

 

[Russel]

66 Million people in the UK and Truss is the best we could find...

 

[brad465]

The BBC keeps playing the clip of Liz Truss saying "we import two thirds of our cheese. That is a disgrace" which I remember hearing about before but didn't actually see, it's brilliantly bonkers!

Have they also been playing what she said soon after: "In December, I'll be in Beijing, opening up new pork markets", followed by an awkward smile.

 

[GS250]

I would also say that people voted for Cameron and Johnson because they thought it would lead to a brighter future - they offered something different, Truss doesn't appear to.

Completely agree. Very similar to that other failed leader Teresa May. Offered nothing yet felt entitled to people's votes.

I'd put money on Labour being the biggest party at the next election but with a record low turnout.

 

[WizCastro197]

I am assuming that the 654 people whose ballots were rejected put Boris on it?

Correct, up to a point. The point being no Labour Gov't has so generously inflated the profits of a select few chums as Sunak did...

Apparently, our glorious new PM also praised Boris for being "known from Kiev to Carlisle "....geography has never been her strong point (see the slight confusion between the Baltic and the Black Sea for example)and quite why she chose Carlisle as a location only she knows...well there again, she probably doesn't and thought Kiev and Carlisle sounded the same when pronounced with a "K" so Carlisle would do.

Carlisle is notable as a seat that was Labour until 2010 (including the Thatcher era) but has been true-blue ever since. Wonder if that's anything to do with it?

I doubt it is the Second point, many other seats have been 'True-Blue' for far longer than 12 years eg. Reigate: Been Blue since 1885 with a few inconsistencies.
It may be the awful lack of grammar with the K thing. It seems as if she has forgotten alliteration.

 

[sor]

Presumably a large chunk of the non-voters and the rejected ballots are from people who would rather Boris have continued in post. I can't imagine many other reasons why someone would pay the relatively hefty membership fees and not vote.

 

[Cloud Strife]

But it's interesting to see quite how many people were willing to abandon the Tories if Liz was suggested as leader. If looks like the theory that she's the leader of choice for a notable number of Tory supporters, but not in favour with the wider electorate has some bones to it.

Which is interesting in itself. I personally would have expected Truss to do better among the Red Wall voters than Sunak, but perhaps the Southern Tory vote isn't keen on a Northern PM, even if she's as typically Southern Tory as they come?